Here's recent history of the Fed’s policy committee and its Fed Funds rate. Next Fed decision is June 24/25.
Commercial construction down 34% in 2008
June 30th, 2008, 1:30 pm · 22 Comments · posted by Jeff Collins
The Construction Industry Research Board reports that plans for new office, industrial and retail space are down by two-thirds or more so far this year, accounting for the bulk of the declines in non-residential building permit values this year so far.
Overall, non-residential construction is off 34% in the first five months of the year vs. the same January-May period in 2007, the research board reported. Here’s the breakdown:
- Industrial: -62.6%
- Office: -72.8%
- Retail: -76%
- Hotel/Motel: -86.7%
- Parking garages: +102.4%
- Remodels: +6%
- Other: -40.2%
Ben Bartolotto, the board’s research director, said parking garages likely are up to provide parking for the new office buildings constructed in the last year or so.
Despite the dip, non-residential building permit values continue to outpace residential permit values for just the second time this decade. The value of proposed non-residential construction was estimated at $686 million, the research board said. Residential construction so far this year was estimated at $509 million.
Here’s a breakdown of the estimated values of O.C. non-residential permits for January through May for the past decade (in millions):
| Ind | Off | Store | Hotel | Md | Prkg | Alt | Other | All | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ‘99 | $47.8 | $84.1 | $75.4 | $51.5 | $4.1 | $35.6 | $266.5 | $101.3 | $666.4 |
| ‘00 | $16.7 | $160.5 | $126.9 | $67.9 | $2.7 | $16.3 | $268.7 | $58.9 | $718.6 |
| ‘01 | $47.5 | $93.7 | $91.5 | $101.5 | $3.3 | $0.0 | $258.2 | $72.8 | $668.4 |
| ‘02 | $12.0 | $90.1 | $65.2 | $3.9 | $0.0 | $30.2 | $237.2 | $39.6 | $478.2 |
| ‘03 | $24.8 | $53.0 | $27.4 | $0.0 | $3.5 | $0.0 | $237.3 | $65.3 | $411.3 |
| ‘04 | $17.3 | $70.1 | $38.6 | $0.0 | $1.7 | $27.0 | $225.7 | $93.2 | $473.6 |
| ‘05 | $17.8 | $38.7 | $65.8 | $8.2 | $0.0 | $29.4 | $246.3 | $97.8 | $503.9 |
| ‘06 | $34.2 | $309.4 | $81.8 | $12.0 | $0.0 | $181.0 | $301.4 | $128.1 | $1,047.9 |
| ‘07 | $25.5 | $182.2 | $208.3 | $77.8 | $0.0 | $57.2 | $346.6 | $125.5 | $1,023.3 |
| ‘08 | $9.6 | $49.6 | $50.0 | $10.3 | $0.0 | $115.8 | $367.6 | $75.0 | $677.8 |
Source: Construction Industry Research Board; Ind=industrial; Off=office; Hotel=hotel & motel; Md=medial & institutional; Prkg=parking garages; Alt=alterations & additions
June 30th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
another good link
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/31337/Bottomless-Home-Prices-to-Fall-Another-10-15-Percent-Says-Schwab’s-Sonders?tickers=LEN,KBH,XHB,SCHW
June 30th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
more good stuff from Business Week Mag
June 30th, 2008 at 4:01 pm
At the bottom is a link of Dr. Christopher Thornberg on the Bruce Norris radio show.
PermaBulls, please be warned that Dr. Thornburg says there’s “no pent up demand out there”. LoL So much for that theory, Gary.
Click on the MP3 dated June 28, 2008, or click on the iTunes link if you have that. Fast Forward to the 13 minute mark, and listen what Dr. Thornberg says about Orange County.
http://www.thenorrisgroup.com/archives.php
June 30th, 2008 at 5:54 pm
Three Million U.S. Mortgages Headed for Default.
About 9 million Americans who own homes owe more than the value of their dwellings.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a0uc9das5pmM
June 30th, 2008 at 5:56 pm
Inventory is headed towards record territory again.
http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/LosAngeles-LongBeach-SantaAna/SantaAna-Anaheim-Irvine
June 30th, 2008 at 6:02 pm
Orange County Foreclosures Pre-Foreclosures
01/2008: 1,940 13,829
02/2008: 2,387 7,402
03/2008: 2,513 8,537
04/2008: 3,006 9,497
05/2008: 3,829 10,685
06/2008: 5,529 11,479
June 30th, 2008 at 6:08 pm
Orange County Foreclosures Pre-Foreclosures
01/2008:……………..1,940………………………13,829
02/2008:.…………….2,387………………………. 7,402
03/2008:……………..2,513………………………..8,537
04/2008:……………..3,006………………………..9,497
05/2008:……………..3,829………………………10,685
06/2008:……………..5,529………………………11,479
Hope this chart looks better!
June 30th, 2008 at 6:51 pm
bill, the chart looks beautiful. I’m sure the bulls don’t agree with me but again, your chart looks beautiful and it is not just the formatting but the numbers. 5,529 foreclosures in June looks pretty bad for the bulls.
June 30th, 2008 at 10:03 pm
Yes, all of these foreclosures are simply wonderful. In other news, a radiation leak was reported in Sioux Falls, ID and a nuclear power plant is scheduled to be constructed across from Bubbles home in Newport Beach. Don’t worry about the value…it is good for the economy.
July 1st, 2008 at 1:02 am
In other news, Congress just put us taxpayers further into debt to the tune of $162 billion. More of our country is being sold off piecemeal so that the elite few can continue pretending that their failed Iraq policies are working. What’s $162 billion divided by the number of Iraqi WMD’s? Infinity.
July 1st, 2008 at 5:45 am
Mulliganville,
The increasing amount of foreclosures just reminds us all that the prices of yesteryear were nothing more than a mirage.
July 1st, 2008 at 6:12 am
Month Defaults Forec.
January 2,352 802
February 2,254 733
March 2,476 698
April 2,598 898
May 2,468 1,131
http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/2008/06/16/oc-foreclosures-hit-new-record-in-may-break-1000-in-a-month-for-first-time/
July 1st, 2008 at 6:18 am
Notice this part of Padilla’s thread “oc-foreclosures-hit-new-record-in-may-break-1000-in-a-month-for-first-time” didn’t say “oc-foreclosures-hit-new-record-in-may-break-5000-in-a-month-for-first-time”. And Realtor Dave, would you please confirm the active inventory number?
July 1st, 2008 at 6:52 am
No, Prince, you need to divide 162 billion dollars by the number of barrels of oil under the sand in the Middle East and consider it our insurance payment in case something happens, …. like they don’t want to sell us any cuz we can’t afford it anymore!
July 1st, 2008 at 6:54 am
So what will be the first month where foreclosures double sales? That will be fun.
66% drops in price folks. I was too bullish calling only for 50%.
Do you really want to buy next year with all these foreclosures piling up? Na!!!
July 1st, 2008 at 7:56 am
Bill good chart,
Parsing what the true foreclosure numbers are is like fiddling while Rome burns…All it demonstrates is that they (MLS REO # listings) are what makes up the market today….Volume & DOM mean nothing in this market when the vast majority are distressed sales. It gets skewed as non-distressed listing are usually on the market for over 100 DOM, where the aver REO is now sold in a fraction of the time. Why… they’re cheaper, and dropping as we speak!
Accent is on distressed-sales. To deny that fact is to truly be a head-in-the-sands observer! Reality is a good thing! It’ll set you free…It has nothing to do with Perma-Bear or any such thing!
July 1st, 2008 at 10:15 am
Provider,
These are cumulative numbers.
Simple math skills involved.
July 1st, 2008 at 11:13 am
I think not. Your numbers bear no resemblance to the published numbers. I also fail to follow how your “cumulative” nods start at 13,829, then drop to 7,402 and then climb to 11,479. These numbers are rubbish.
July 1st, 2008 at 6:30 pm
Provider,
Do you even have cumulative numbers to compare mine with or are you just having a hard time stomaching the truth?
Once in a while you will come on here and tell everyone to give out their true identity, yet you rarely do yourself.
When are you going to come out of the closet and expose who you really are instead of hiding behind countless names?
If this was a Vegas bet a lot of people would make a fortune placing on Pat the lurker.
July 1st, 2008 at 9:52 pm
I am provider…wait, i am thoughtful…wait, i am sigh…wait, i am shockg…damn, i cannot keep up with all of my handles.
July 2nd, 2008 at 5:36 am
Ironically, that’s probably the most honest thing you have said on this blog.
You’ve already stated realtors don’t have to be truthful since there are trying to sell homes.
July 2nd, 2008 at 5:58 am
Mulliganville,
Here’s a good example:
You’re a realtor in many states other than the state you live in and blog in 24/7.
You, trying to distance yourself just enough to have a morsel of credibility on this blog with one of the lamest stories I’ve ever heard is really pathetic.
You’re just another local putz trying to talk up the market, hoping someone will make a mistake so you can profit from it.