Here's recent history of the Fed’s policy committee and its Fed Funds rate. Next Fed decision is June 24/25.
O.C. houses off $199,000 from peak in mid-May
June 6th, 2008, 9:04 am · 135 Comments · posted by Jon Lansner/O.C. Register columnist
Latest homebuying stats from DataQuick, for the 22 business days ended May 20, show modest sales strength, with O.C. deals closed still running above 2,000 residences — a level not seen from September to March. (Psst! That’s still not great. The 1988-2007 monthly average is 3,793!)
But what has it taken to get O.C. homes moving a bit again? Like any retailer, a sale! Just 15 of O.C.’s 83 ZIPs have median selling prices above a year ago. (Full ZIP analysis IS HERE!) So look at this “discount” pricing by key O.C. slices …
• The median selling price of a single-family houses is now $199,000 cheaper (a 27% markdown) vs. the June ‘07 peak of $734,000.
• Condos are $105,000 (-22%) below March ’06’s $470,000 high.
• Builders sell new residences $434,500 below the record of February ‘05 at $864,000 (that’s -50%, HALF OFF!)
• Overall, the countywide median of $480,000 is down $165,000 (-26%) from its June ‘07 top at $645,000.
By the way, that latest overall median — if it held for the entire month — would be the lowest since February 2004. Here’s the market, by key slice …
| Slice | Price | Vs. ‘07 | Sales | Vs. ‘07 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| House | $535,000 | -23.5% | 1,375 | -19.4% |
| Condo | $365,000 | -21.5% | 523 | -25.6% |
| New* | $429,500 | -33.8% | 207 | -35.3% |
| All | $480,000 | -23.8% | 2,105 | -22.8% |
How this fit into the big picture? Well …
• It fits the fact that local appraisers found SoCal pricing at its weakest in 43-plus years.
• Price cuts make the typical O.C. house more affordable than it’s been in five years.
• Buyers may be noticing that the O.C. rent-vs.-purchase math has improved.
• And, with the pipeline of new purchases put in escrow by brokers at a two-year high, DataQuick sales stats could look brighter this summer.
June 6th, 2008 at 9:06 am
the numbers say it all.
June 6th, 2008 at 9:16 am
Per DataQuick, Single Family Median Home Price:
2006 ~ Month End
$690,000 = Feb ~ Watts 15% “In The Bag” for SFH
$695,000 = Mar
$705,000 = Apr
$705,000 = May
$700,000 = Jun
$699,000 = Jul ~ Watts revises forecast to 11%
$685,000 = Aug
$680,000 = Sep
$665,000 = Oct
$660,000 = Nov
$665,000 = Dec
2007 ~ Month End
$675,000 = Jan ~ Watts forecast 7% SFH
$675,000 = Feb
$695,000 = Mar
$720,000 = Apr
$695,000 = May
$734,000 = Jun ~ Peak of O.C. Housing Bubble
$718,000 = Jul
$710,000 = Aug
$655,000 = Sep
$650,000 = Oct
$655,000 = Nov
$600,000 = Dec
2008 ~ Weekly ~ Month End
$600,000 = 01/07 ~ Watts declares “Pent up Demand”
$595,000 = 01/15
$595,000 = 01/23
$583,250 = Jan
$585,000 = 02/07
$575,000 = 02/13
$575,000 = 02/22
$575.000 = Feb
$580,000 = 03/07
$575,000 = 03/14
$567,000 = 03/20
$570,000 = 03/26
$570,000 = Mar
$553,750 = 04/08
$565,000 = 04/14
$563,000 = 04/22
$550,000 = 04/28
$555,000 = Apr
$554,000 = 05/06
$540,000 = 05/14
$535,000 = 05/20
Per DataQuick, this loss represents a $199,000 decline in single family home prices from the June 2007 high. And the beat goes on … and on … and on!
EYE CANDY from our local real estate guru:
“Fifteen percent is pretty much in the bag for Orange County in 2006,” he says. “It’s impossible for prices to go down this year.” ~ Gary Watts, February 13, 2006, Fortune Magazine
“I think we probably are not going to see 15 (percent), but I think 11 or 12 (percent) is still realistic.” ~ Gary Watts, July 21, 2006, Orange County Register
“Cyclical housing downturns have always occurred. The good news is these situations do not last forever. The cycles tend to run approximately 27 to 36 months, so this cyclical downturn should run its course by summer.” ~ Gary Watts, Impact Real Estate 2008 Housing & Economic Forecast
Oh Gary, you’re a funny, funny man.
June 6th, 2008 at 9:29 am
Now, take a look at how the media reported today’s horrible employment numbers and tell me if you think that people will be in the mood to buy houses when they don’t even know if they’ll have a job tomorrow.
June 6th, 2008 at 9:33 am
BTW, did I mention that oil is back at $134.
An increase of more than 12 bucks in just 2 days. Ouch!!!!
June 6th, 2008 at 9:34 am
Steve Thomas’ demand isn’t following through with closed sales…
June 6th, 2008 at 9:43 am
Volume is up because banks are finally accepting ridiculously low offers. Not good.
June 6th, 2008 at 10:01 am
Oh Lee….Yes I am sure you envisioned a complete collapse of the credit market. Let’s be transparent with our analysis here, shall we? Without that variable in the equation, my guess is his numbers would be fairly accurate.
Bubble: do you revel in negative news?
June 6th, 2008 at 10:08 am
oh my god.
Oil just broke above $135 (all time record)
The Dow is down 300 points
The dollar is down against all major currencies
Unemployment went from 5 to 5.50%
The economy lost 49000 more jobs.
Foreclosures keep going up.
Expect $5 gas in the next couple of weeks.
Should I say more?
June 6th, 2008 at 10:15 am
Why the median is worthless:
Mission Viejo 92692 (the one I would care about if I were selling)
05/2008 $505K
04/2008 $521K
03/2008 $500K
02/2008 $620K
01/2008 $527K
12/2007 $516K
11/2007 $627,500
10/2007 $528,500
09/2007 $610K
08/2007 $600K
July 2007 was in the 600’s I am sure, but did not look it up…it s a heartbeat monitor for the last year or so…at least around here.
June 6th, 2008 at 10:16 am
Oh my God what will we do bubbs!!!!! How can society continue on? Quick, stockpile all the food and act like rabid animals!!! Heavy speculators in oil today…
June 6th, 2008 at 10:24 am
nbsp;NationalBubble.com Says:
June 6th, 2008 at 10:08 am
oh my god.
“Oil just broke above $135 (all time record)
The Dow is down 300 points
The dollar is down against all major currencies
Unemployment went from 5 to 5.50%
The economy lost 49000 more jobs.
Foreclosures keep going up.
Expect $5 gas in the next couple of weeks.
Should I say more?”
1. I think we’re in the last throes, if you will, of the SUV (paraphrasing Cheney).
2. Weird. One of my stocks is bucking the trend.
3. Glad I held on to my Euros.
4. UR still too artificially low.
5. Only 101K jobs short of breaking even with population growth.
6. With prices going down, we’re slowly but surely inching towards equilibrium.
June 6th, 2008 at 10:25 am
Doing medians at a zip code level by month is worthless because there are too few transactions. Medians with at least 100 transactions are a lot more reliable. Virtually all such calculations presently display a downward trend.
June 6th, 2008 at 10:28 am
watch this blog closely dear readers- the permafools
are disappearing faster than a fart in the wind and
why not- this economic meltdown is becoming more ominous
by the day foreclosures are spreading like wildfire
and no income level will be immune– dont expect
to see pat “real data” veling making his occasional
visits the embarrassment of having been so wrong
assures it- aint that right pat - plus hes much too busy
supplying his clients with that invaluable “real data”
LMFAO pat wouldnt know real data if it was staring
him in his face- which it has been for the past two years
like I said a snake oil salesman has more credibilty
pat go get a real job
http://www.housingwire.com/2008/06/05/primed-for-trouble-pace-of-mortgage-distress-shifts-to-prime-borrowers
June 6th, 2008 at 10:32 am
HEY MULLIGAN the only thing thats more
worthless than median prices is your
clueless opinion— its because of dumbed
down morons like you that our country is
going to hell thanks oh real man of genius
June 6th, 2008 at 10:35 am
I THINK RANTS IS HAVING SOME INTESTINAL PROBLEM.
LOLLOLLOL @RIBSPLITER!!!!
June 6th, 2008 at 10:39 am
A new update: OIL JUST PASSED 136.96 - AN INCREASE OF 9 BUCKS JUST TODAY
All the pieces are coming together. The perfect storm.
Americans wealth is evaporating.
How did all of us bear bloggers know that this was going to happen?
Simple, we looked around us and saw a completely artificially inflated economy. It doesn’t take a Phd in Economics to realize we were in a bubble.
June 6th, 2008 at 10:42 am
BTW, there is no much the Fed can do now. They won’t be able to lower interest rates any more since inflation is getting out of control.
If they do lower rates, you can say “hi” to $200 oil
June 6th, 2008 at 10:42 am
Mulli,
I gotta agree with rants on this. When you’re in a hole, stop digging.
The median isn’t a great tool but down $165 in a single year can’t be passed off as a problem with the metric. Come’n…
And yes, the collapse of the credit market was predicted many. That creepy Gary didn’t see that coming and put that into his calculations shows how clueless he is.
June 6th, 2008 at 10:45 am
Good grief Mulli -
Your comment “Without that variable in the equation, my guess is his numbers would be fairly accurate.” . . .. Mind boggling, truly.
Even in retrospect (standing here, blood rising), it seems as that many bulls can’t see how this whole situation occurred. (It’s as if many ‘in the industry’ think that the end of this Ponzi scheme occurred by just a brief quirk of subprime financing.) Forecasting a somewhat broad credit collapse wasn’t that tough to call either (though I don’t see Lee implying on this page that he did). Anticipating a recession due to the abrupt cessation of the personal deficit spending (non-captured equity spending)… was not that tough to call either.
Do you really deal with variables and equations in your work? I think someone even modesly analytical (even as a part-time basis) would have expected most of what is happening.
June 6th, 2008 at 10:49 am
Oops.
I wonder where Thoughtfull is today. Nowhere to be seen.
I guess the bad news forced him to get away from his computer and enjoy his house before the bank takes it back. LOL
June 6th, 2008 at 10:51 am
TOP FIVE CITIES FOR VOLUME
Anaheim average zip code -25.30%
Garden Grove average zip code -22.60%
Huntington Beach average zip code -6.13%
Irvine average zip code -3.53%
Santa Ana average zip code -27.98%
June 6th, 2008 at 10:51 am
Those would be prices.
June 6th, 2008 at 10:55 am
JMHO ~ I want to first state that I understand that much of the third world is advancing, and America is now competing with these countries for food, energy and basic materials.
With that said, the government is going to come in a squash the speculating in oil. And that’s exactly what it is … SPECULATION … up 40% YTD. No, that’s not demand … that’s every money manager in America screaming “buy oil”.
The Fed has pumped so much money into the economy, it’s constantly biding up prices and creating these bubbles. However, this bubble is one that will not be allowed to go much further.
June 6th, 2008 at 10:57 am
oh thoughtful,
I guess my comment forced you to come out of the shadows.
It’s good to see you are brave enough to come to this blog in a day like today. Good for you.
June 6th, 2008 at 11:03 am
Here Bubbie drive yourself nuts
http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/data.exe/feddal/ru
June 6th, 2008 at 11:07 am
Did anyone ever notice that Bubbie reacts to bad news the same way a 12 year old kid reacts to his first peek at a Playboy Centerfold?
June 6th, 2008 at 11:19 am
folks, just think about how the media is going to cover the horrible oil and unemployment news tonight. You know how the media loves bad news.
June 6th, 2008 at 11:23 am
Lee
I’ve been interested in studying this concept - Oil as a speculative bubble. I haven’t had the chance yet. I was aiming to look at the obvious root data; consumption rates for particular countries of interest, and dollar depreciation relative to currencies of oil producing nations …. off-the-cuff analysis to me suggests that the boosted cost of oil for us is mostly inflationary … though I haven’t proven this to myself.
I used to work in an oil related business, and the accepted wisdom was that the oil and gas business was long-term cyclic with very deep cycles.
June 6th, 2008 at 11:24 am
seekingaclue posts some irrelavent employment
chart - HEY EINSTEIN the government lies about
the unemployment numbers— they have to— if they
put out anywhere near the real numbers the stock
market would implode- hell look what its doing today
with their BS numbers duuhhhhh
June 6th, 2008 at 11:27 am
It seems that the high end homes were the last ones being purchased on the way up skewing the median price to the high side, now it looks like the high end homes will be the last to see substantial price declines on the down slide.
When the high end prices start to drop, the median will drop drastically……….
June 6th, 2008 at 11:29 am
BREAKING NEWS: Crude oil just passed the $139 mark.
Up $11 just today.
What a mess!!!!
Thank you Ben Bernanke!!!!!
June 6th, 2008 at 11:31 am
See I told you it would make em nuts
June 6th, 2008 at 11:32 am
Meaningless stats and they don’t apply to me. Everything is going great in my neighborhood. Strong demand, prices are up and will continue to go up.
June 6th, 2008 at 11:41 am
But, but, but, it’s t-turning around, isn’t it? I swear it’s going to get better. Hello?
June 6th, 2008 at 11:46 am
So Gilligan’s point is that the prices of homes in M.V. are dropping also.
June 6th, 2008 at 11:47 am
When I drive aroud OC and see gas prices well over 4.50, I can’t forget to think about how much the average OC family is hurting, especially those people driving big SUVs.
The last thing that the OC homeowners needed was a huge tax like high gas prices.
June 6th, 2008 at 11:49 am
I agree, the average OC dweller is hurting a lot. Gas prices are way up, food prices and RE is still way overpriced.
June 6th, 2008 at 11:51 am
Do you guys know that it takes about 5 weeks for oil prices to reflect on gas prices?
So, prepare yourself for much higher gas prices.
If you want to know what that will do to the housing market, just take a look at the homebuilders, getting crashed today
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=tol
June 6th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
Get em rants tell em whats up
June 6th, 2008 at 12:12 pm
“rants Says:
June 6th, 2008 at 11:24 am
seekingaclue posts some irrelavent employment
chart - HEY EINSTEIN the government lies about
the unemployment numbers— they have to— if they
put out anywhere near the real numbers the stock
market would implode”
So what are the REAL numbers since you know so much? Oh, you’re not going to post them!! Of course not - they are SECRET NUMBER THAT ONLY YOU KNOW!! You know so much! I’m so impressed!! Bozo! Talk about full of BS!
June 6th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
SEEKING ALFALFA THOUGHTLESS/MULLI
ARE YOU AND GARY WATTS AND PAT(GESTAPO POLICE THREATENING LAWSUITS)VEILING STILL AROUND
YOU GUYS HAVE TO BE A TEAM……LOLLL
I DONT THINK THERE HAS EVER BEEN ANY PEOPLE AS FOOLISH AND COMPLETLEY CLUELESS TO WHATS GOING ON IN THE REAL WORLD AS YOU PEOPLE ARE..
HEY PAT COME SUE ME FOR DEFAMATION OF CHARACTER PLEASE I WANT YOU TOOOOO…..LOLLLLLLL
P.S. I LOVE SHORTING THIS MARKET ITS THE ABOVE PEOPLE MENTIONED THAT I MAKE MY MONEY FROM FOOLS THAT THINK THINGS ONLY GO UP!!!!!!!!
June 6th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
It’s all in the timing! Although I would still like to see some criminal prosecutions of the people that pushed these obviously bad loans… That won’t happen though!
June 6th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
This message board should be named the Jerry Springer Blasting Grounds.
June 6th, 2008 at 12:32 pm
I think today is the beginning of when people see we are in a serious recession.
We have unemployment rising rapidly, speculation raging without control. We have no leadership from any parts.
I guess we should be thankful that we have one very angry person that comes to this board to waste his time and get the bears angry.
So whether you post as Mulliganville or thoughtful or seeklingalpha or crystal balls or richard head I want to thankyou for keeping the bears growling.
I know that you will continue on monitoring this blog every few minutes and posting this same stuff every few minutes. That is incredibly dedicated considering that your not getting paid to do this.
Even if you do work for Pat Veling I am sure he is not paying you extra to do this. So my hats off to you. Keep up the work. It will take ever more creativity to keep people responding to you. But so far you have been able to do it.
I am just waiting for to come up with something original and I think you can. So it is all good.
Have a wonderful day.
June 6th, 2008 at 12:55 pm
Apparently the treasury department is now actual considering that the United States merge with China. The neccesary internet links look quite doable and apparently there is little to get in the way of a bridge starting in Alaska and stretching to Beijing. A Chinese team of engineers will start on their side and Haliburton will begin from the Alaskan islands. Steve Balmer is on board approximately 33 dollars a share. Apparently Yang is holding out for something like 40.
We will be called CHASA. Management does not think there will be any real cultural clashes as the Chinese are becoming more entrepreentrepreneurial and we have become much more authoritarian. I think we can all look forward to this merger if it is cleared by the justice department.
June 6th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
At least the froth is disappearing very fast from OC housing market. My office mate bought 3 bedroom townhome for over 500K in Rancho Santa Margarita in the spring of 2005. His realtor told him house prices always go up in OC. (Does this sound familiar on this blog?) His neighbor has listed similar townhome for 400 K two months ago and is not getting much traffic.
I am glad I waited. Another 15% to 20% drop in OC prices and I will be a happy buyer.
June 6th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
Jake:
You busted me. Yes, Truthi, Shockg, Thoughtful, et al. http://www.thefreedictionary.com/et+al.) all work for me.
My ruse is now common knowledge. You have to admit it makes for interesting blogging!
Haven’t seen No_Vaseline today. Wonder why? He keeps asking me to have coffee with him…or to buy him lunch at The Hat. I may agree, if he will do so at The Hat in Brea. It would have to be dutch, though. We’ll see if he replies. Maybe we can all meet there and have a battle royal? Watch here for schedule details. (The Hat’s banana peppers ROCK!)
Have a great day!
June 6th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
Pat,
I’d love to go, but only if you’re buying. I read your data, acted on it and lost all my money on real estate.
Will Gary be there too?
June 6th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
Here is the summary of the long table
< $400k - 32.22%
400K500k
500K600k
600K1,000k
<1,000k - 18.04%
Is this true - homes more than a million have appreciated by 18%?
June 6th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
A blog post I read on another site:
“Oh, and I believe that the reason that transactions have risen is
because the figure they quote includes the transactions that are registered when the bank repossesses the house.
Foreclosure starts with notices of default and then, finally, when the bank takes the property back, a transaction is recorded. This is why when you search foreclosed homes on zillow you will always see that the last transaction on the property was relatively recently.
So a rise in transactions is actually a very bad thing when this is the case because all those homes are on the market.”
Then I notice that it is true regarding some of the sales history entries on Ziprealty when you look at “recent sales”. You see the house listed twice, sometimes days apart from each other.
June 6th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
Here is one:
31221 AVENIDA TERRAMAR, San Juan Capistrano - ’sold’ in Jan 08, then again in Feb 08 for 120k less.
June 6th, 2008 at 1:40 pm
“Now, read this carefully: DataQuick’s frequently quoted monthly sales figures do NOT include homes whose ownership changed hands due to foreclosure”
Jon Lansner
June 6th, 2008 at 1:43 pm
Steve Thomas + new home sales + time = Dataquick.
Dataquick + auctions + foreclosures = total volume.
June 6th, 2008 at 1:45 pm
Thougtful, where you been? I think Bubble had to duct tape his head to his shoulders to keep from popping a happy gasket at the tune of all of the inflationary numbers out today. He literally must be on cloud 9. Is he the editor for the LA Times? NY Times? Maybe he sits on the 9th circuit court of libtards…I think rants does as well.
June 6th, 2008 at 1:47 pm
“A blog post I read on another site” = your first mistake
June 6th, 2008 at 1:51 pm
Darn this math! I’m still trying to figure out your last equation and understand the variables :
- 20% $ / year + 2k sales volume (yeah!) + spring time = market bottom so buy now
It doesn’t make any sense to me.
June 6th, 2008 at 1:55 pm
Below is a quote regarding low prices set by banks to sell foreclosure units.
“It’s not uncommon to have 10 to 20 offers on one house, and for the house to end up selling for more than its market price,” said Erin Attardi, a Sacramento Realtor.
Erin Afttardi is correct and the key to the above quote is “more than its market price”. It goes to show that in any market, there are moronic buyers out there who deserve to lose their money.
June 6th, 2008 at 1:59 pm
Don’t hate the player Sharpster, hate the game.
Oh and the oil market? Huge speculators driving this ship. India/china will have an effect. But…seriously…interesting how the market instills curbs on specific stocks when they get way out of whack on a given trading day…but commodities? Hell no…fair game…to the moon.
Bubble: When oil hits $175 what on earth will you do? We might need another website from you my friend…does all of this smell like a commodities bubble??? Oh I think it does…indeed it does!
June 6th, 2008 at 2:07 pm
Quick question: If US refineries are cranking at about 87% of capacity…ummm, yeah….hmmmm. Um, they’re not at capacity? Uhhh, nope…hmmm. Well then, uh…um…explain this to me? It would make sense at these levels that capacity output is stretched to the max and it is not. Hence: SPECULATORS. Fry em.
June 6th, 2008 at 2:10 pm
“Sighburrdood Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 4:00 pm
…
Beginning pretty much now, and continuing for the rest of the year,
( because of higher conforming loan rates, in addition to the increase in ALL sales activity that has been documented by the Register in the past week.) I predict that the median will actually go UP, and level off at a much higher figure than that of 2 weeks ago.
The same abberation or illusion is true for all of Southern California.
I’ll hereby predict that said higher figure will be announced by the Register in the first week of April. ( And for So Cal, in the Times, a week later.) Time will tell.”
I think time has told.
SFR Median, March 14, $575,000
SFR Median, May 20, $535,000
Overall median, March 14, $507,250
Overall median, May 20, $480,000
“Sighburrdood Says:
March 16th, 2008 at 7:25 pm
…
It will be interesting to see the new HIGHER DQ figures come the first week of April and even more in the first week of May. I can’t wait to rub some bearish snout in the figures.”
I must have missed the bear snout rubbing??
June 6th, 2008 at 2:17 pm
Bottom January 2008
June 6th, 2008 at 2:25 pm
A revised RE bull equation ?
- 20% $/year + 2k sales volume (yeah!) + spring time + temporary higher conforming limit = market bottom so buy now or be wishing you had
June 6th, 2008 at 2:39 pm
I hate to say it to but for every 1 dollar gas goes up a gallon it will cost me about an extra 250-400 dollars a year. Also the impact it has on goods that are shipped.
One must also consider the demand destruction that is taking place. I know now at least 3 people who have got new cars that get better mileage than there former trucks.
As far as unemployment, orange county was hit by an increase in unemployment early on. I will watch for Johns next employment numbers with great interest.
I went to your website Pat, I drive by your office all the time on the way home.
June 6th, 2008 at 3:10 pm
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080606/unloading_foreclosures.html
A double bottom, sales (up for now), and prices (no one really knows, depends on the future of jobs and interest rates). When rates increase soon, may see another “mini-boomlet” of sales. Don’t bail out the builders, let em survive on the fat profits they made over the last few years.
I say buy Home Depot stocks!! Lots of rehab work on those foreclosures.
June 6th, 2008 at 3:13 pm
Looks like CdM and Newport are posting good results. This looks lije inflation.
June 6th, 2008 at 3:20 pm
Gary,
You fat liar. I never asked you to pick up the check. I offered to do so for fifteen minutes of your time so you could explain what it is you do.
Even though I think you are trying to be funny, it’s not appropriate. And makes me question even more the Enron-esque qualities your serice business is based on.
“Enron - We Make Markets (of stuff that never needed one)”