State Employment Development Dept. stats, analyzed by your blogger, show that Orange County real estate and finance jobs last month rose again — this time by 800 jobs to 234,400, the first back-to-back, month-to-month gain in 13 months.
However, it may be a seasonal boost. The two-month gain of 2,600 is no where near the average 4,600 gain seen from February-to-April since 1990.
It’s rare good news for this ailing sector. In the past year, O.C. real estate and finance bosses slashed 17,200 jobs, or a drop of 6.8% as the housing slump and credit crunch got worse. All told, work in these heavily land-related industries is off 10.2% from its September ‘06 peak. The drop pushed real estate/finance’s share of the overall O.C. workforce to under 16%, lows last seen in 2004.
And it should be noted that these state stats do not track the self-employed or independent contractors, categories of work common in the real estate/finance world. So it’s likely these industries job picture is even worse. Just imagine if these stats truly reflected the continuing drop in California real estate licensees.
Almost as troubling is that bosses outside real estate/finance niche cut a total of 2,100 jobs in the year ended last month. All told, O.C. bosses are trimming payrolls at a 1.3% annual rate. It’s the 7th consecutive year-over-year decline outside of real estate/finance as the broader economy begins to weaken. And Long Beach State economist don’t think things will get better.
Here’s a look at real estate/finance by key slices …
| Job slice | Last mo. | Vs. ‘07 | Vs. ‘07 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | 98,800 | -4,200 | -4.1% |
| • Construct buildings | 23,300 | -1,100 | -4.5% |
| • Heavy construction | 8,000 | -500 | -5.9% |
| • Specialty trades | 67,500 | -2,600 | -3.7% |
| Lending activities | 35,200 | -13,000 | -27.0% |
| • Bank lending | 18,000 | -500 | -2.7% |
| • Non-bank lending | 12,600 | -7,600 | -37.6% |
| • Lending support | 4,600 | -4,900 | -51.6% |
| Other finance | 11,100 | -100 | -0.9% |
| Real estate/leasing | 38,200 | -900 | -2.3% |
| • Real estate | 31,800 | -500 | -1.5% |
| • Leasing | 6,400 | -400 | -5.9% |
| Bldg. services | 33,200 | +1,300 | +4.1% |
| Building supply | 11,300 | -700 | -5.8% |
| Farm | 6,600 | +400 | +6.5% |
| All real-estate related | 234,400 | -17,200 | -6.8% |
| All other O.C. jobs | 1,268,400 | -2,100 | -0.2% |
| All O.C. jobs | 1,502,800 | -19,300 | -1.3% |
.000001 is better than 000.000000000000
Cool, the bottom is in!
haha
The OC’s housing market implosion continues……………………
We are only in the third inning of this real estate bust. Those that remember the 1990’s know how bad it was and this crash is going to be worst than that. People that have been surviving on easy credit are going to learn a hard lesson from all of this as banks pull back on lending and home equity evaporates back into thin air. Housing affordability will rule and cash will be King - albeit the cash will buy much less than before thanks to the Fed’s strategy of creating inflation in an attempt to create a soft landing for the housing market.
Has anybody seen Gary Watts?
Another step forward.
And two steps back.
All real-estate related -17,200
All O.C. jobs -19,300
You have a huge credibility problem, Thoutfull. My advice is to shake the 8-ball a little harder before titling your next post.
I love the realtors that, even here, claim it is always a great time to buy. The reality is, it is NOT a good time to buy. Home values will revert to the mean, which means a roll-back to 2001/2002 price levels, leaving many deep underwater.
Home values grow with inflation and always have. Now we are seeing deflation in home values but the debt is not deflating with the equity.
Sure.
Those of you who take joy and happiness with light or no job gains…in any sector…frankly are despicable human beings. Watch out for karma…it comes back at you with ferocity.
And which karma are you referring to?
I believe the karma is at work right now. Most of the industry (the same people who currently suffer job losses) was benefiting and proclaiming how real estate will rise forever, contributing to the bubble by creating a sense of “buy now or you’ll miss the boat” mentality. From agents to mortgage reps to title reps to appraisers, all required the same mantra to be embraced: “buy now buy now at all costs.” They marketed this concept so well that guess what? Porsche, BMW and Mercedes sales went through the roof in 2005-2006.
As a result of their irresponsible behavior, both in terms of shamelessly marketing an unsustainable buying spree and irresponsibly buying expensive rewards for themselves, the entire industry is suffering a pitiless public backlash.
So yes, the karma has returned to strike down the very people who created the bubble in the first place: greedy buyers, unscrupulous agents, predatory lenders, etc.
Real estate related jobs make up 15% of the OC jobs..I knew that OC RE was huge but 15%!…no wonder our economy is slipping…we were so dependent on one sector…a sector that was dependent on continuing fraud and illegal equity use. I don’t have any sympathy for those who actively participated in this ridiculous crime.
What drama queens we have here. Like Mulli says, your karma is coming.
The only karma coming is toward the realtors and loan officers that created this ponzi scheme aka the housing bubble.
Sure, right. And look over there… A PUPPY!!!
Tro ll it is a holiday and you already have half the posts. Take some time off and be with your dog.
Gotta love how thoughtless pounces on the crumbs Lansner sometimes sends her way. Some day she might even get full. Though no time soon I suspect.
And Mulli, if what you say about karma is true, then countless real estate “professionals” over the last five years must be experiencing many a sleepless night
Mr. Bubble,
Not only is inflation worse which inflates the GDP but we have done many other accounting funny business. We stopped investing in roads and other infrastructure. We reduced investment in education.
We count things like cigarettes and alchohol as additions to GDP. This may have been a small error in the past but as we have more and more entertainment GDP reflects less and less an accurate picture of our economy. Counting medical expense as part of the GDP is really questionable, esspecially if it is wasted medical expense.
Given all these factors we may look back and see the the 2000’s as Americas lost decade.
Thoughtful,
you really need to get a life. I’m just going over the posts and I can see that you spent the whole weekend in front of the computer obsessing about the housing crash in OC. Even grampa Sighburdood has better things to do with his time. It’s pretty sad that you are wasting your whole life with this nonsense.
Sure I did.
I always wondered how God decides who he likes and does not. And how God decides which parts of the real estate market to bless , and finally why God seems to be so very close to real estate agents. Personally I would think God would prefer zoo keepers, but being only a moderate student of the bible perhaps I missed something.
Jake,
You are so right.
I particularly like this from Bill Gross report:
“It’s Sunday afternoon at the Coliseum folks, and all good fun, but the hordes are crossing the Alps and headed for modern day Rome – better educated, harder working, and willing to sacrifice today for a better tomorrow. Can it be any wonder that an estimated 1% of America’s wealth migrates into foreign hands every year? We, as a people, are overweight, poorly educated, overindulged, and imbued with such a sense of self importance on a geopolitical scale, that our allies are dropping like flies. “Yes we can?” Well, if so, then the “we” is the critical element, not the leader that will be chosen in November. Let’s get off the couch and shape up – physically, intellectually, and institutionally – and begin to make some informed choices about our future. Lincoln didn’t say it, but might have agreed, that the worst part about being fooled is fooling yourself, and as a nation, we’ve been doing a pretty good job of that for a long time now.”
It shows you how we are falling behind the rest of the world when it comes to science and technology. I guess it was to be expected. We have become the “modern day Rome”.
Anyways, I’m going to go out and enjoy life. I’ll leave you guys here with Thoughtful, I’m sure he’ll be here the whole day.
What’s with all the liars? They throw out garbage left and right and present it as fact. How sad.
Mr. Bubble,
I think Bill Gross is right that inflation is much higher which makes GDP lower and I think there are other reasons to believe that GDP is lower.
But his implied solutions are wrong.
If you have Malaria in a country you do not treat it very effectively by misquito nets. You drain the swamp.
If people in the society are fat it really is not their fault but a public health problem. Most people have far less ability to chose then we want to believe.
Americans will work hard if they are given a good environment to do it in. The little American did not create the housing bubble thru his greed. The housing bubble was a result of cheap money and an export of manufacturing to the third world. These were things that people like Bill Gross had a say in and did little and profited much.
There is going to be a lot of finger pointing and prayer but I suspect little will get done soon.
The titans or America are going to have to decide that we could use more robotics in America rather than slave labor in China to do our manufacturing. This will happen but I am not holding my breath.
I think Bill Gross should work a little harder and invest a little more wisely.
For those owners that can afford to wait out the downdraft, they will.
I remember in the late ’80’s, early ’90’s. Our property fell in value by something like 15% from 1989 through 1994. We waited until 1997 to sell and move, mostly breaking even after 8 years, without counting all the money we dumped into fixing up the property to sell.
Then, there was widespread unemployment causing rising inventories. Now, this is mostly a specific industry related downturn, created by internals getting out of sync with externals. To me, that is why there is limited inventory on the market. If you’d like to move, but don’t really need to, why not wait until there are better market fundamentals. Right now there is limited decent inventory for decent prices. There is a ton of junk out there. What decent listings there are, have price tags that are still way out of line.
I think that’s what Thoughtful is seeing, and is correct in that sense. There is limited supply of the “normal goods” and plenty of supply of “inferior goods” (in economic parlance). That is the disconnect in this market.
But that doesn’t mean that the “normal” part of this market won’t get touched. It just depends on how widespread this downturn gets.
We haven’t even begun to see the foreclosures in the automotive side of the business. Dealerships are already starting to shut their doors. Home Depot and Lowes are seeing lower sales. Even Target is seeing its sales falling. How long before this affects the rest of the economy?
*Somebody* has to manage all of those REOs.
I think everyone can agree that an increase in jobs is a good thing.
How about those building services? It’s a GREAT time to be a janitor!
Whoo hoo! They’ll be spending those $9 a hour on mortages in a minute!
I keep telling everyone that OC is a bad area to buy in right now. Better to throw your money away out in the middle of nowhere, like I did, so you can deal with extreme temperatures, a poor local economy, 3 hour commutes to work, and the always-present odor of manure. I can’t afford to keep my electricity on, but I have kerosene lamps and plenty of ramen noodles if anyone wants to join me and rants for a game of naked twister some time. Any takers?
By the way, can I carpool with anyone so I can look for a job somewhere back in civilization? My unemployment is about to run out and apparently the our buses don’t travel to any place where you would actually find work. I don’t have any money to offer, but I’d be willing to exchange anything for a ride…..ANYTHING.
I’ve been told by several of the local crackheads that I have a “purdy mouf” incase that might help.
This story is all about how you spin the numbers. If you look at last months total, the OC has created 7,100 more jobs this month than the month before. Thats a big bump in one month. I am sure some of this is seasonal, no doubt. But it still seems like the non RE economy had a nice April for job growth.
Roger Rabbit writes:
“This story is all about how you spin the numbers. If you look at last months total, the OC has created 7,100 more jobs this month than the month before. Thats a big bump in one month. I am sure some of this is seasonal, no doubt. But it still seems like the non RE economy had a nice April for job growth.”
The blogger writes:
” All told, O.C. bosses are trimming payrolls at a 1.3% annual rate. It’s the 7th consecutive year-over-year decline outside of real estate/finance as the broader economy begins to weaken”
It appears the blogger and the data disagree with RR. no_ wants some of what RR is smoking.
no_vaseline — the blogger spoke of YOY, I spoke of MOM. Do you follow dumb dumb?
Yes. You lack a basic comprehension of the subject material, I pointed it out, and you made a personal attack on me. I follow very well.
Jake…God loves everyone…He prefers nobody over the other as evidenced by Him giving up His one and only Son so you and I could have eternal life…if you believe in Christianity, as 75% of our nation does. Could any of us here do that? Could you give up your child for the betterment of mankind? He did and He loves us all unconditionally: as we all fall short of His grace on a regular basis. I have found most people that reject God require facts to support any cause they believe in…it must be proven. Faith is a toughy for the “prove it to me crowd.”
So yes, the karma I speak of…if you were an unscrupulous lender, agent, or just a bad person in general, then I think God knocks you on your head once in a while to hopefully help you see the right path.
Greedy buyers, I don’t see it as karma…I see that as a bad investment. Some work out and others do not. There are plenty of people caught in the price trap who purchased their home…not an investment…just their home as they thought it was best. Do they deserve “karma” such as this…I don’t think so.
BTW, the good agents and lenders will still be around long after this market correction. And one last time…Realtors do not wish for higher prices…they wish for their clientèle to price appropriately so it will move…Realtors wish for volume…not prices.
and you are a closed minded numskull is you think we are all the same…get a clue bro. Seriously…this is hysterical.
I will be praying for you Jake…and all the other mambi-pambi bears who drink the conspiracy kool-aid.
love,
Thoughtful, mulli, VOR, Sigh, shockg, seekingalfalfa, and all the other aliases I may have forgotten.
Naaa, just having fun with your way off base assumption.
It is just sooooo funny…no bears could be the same person…only those that HAVE A DIFFERENT OPINION FROM YOURS. Seek help…seek it soon.
Jake,
Personally? I’d like to see the Arch Angel St. Michael appear in a blinding flash and waste your useless rear end.
This ought to be good.
We could point at the sun, and Jake would call it the moon…what a dolt.
Hi rants…you are still irrelevant.
OC Real estate is turning around this year. Jake is a selfish lover. I had to do all the work.
Mulliganville Says:
- “Greedy buyers, I don’t see it as karma…I see that as a bad investment. Some work out and others do not. There are plenty of people caught in the price trap who purchased their home…not an investment…just their home as they thought it was best. Do they deserve “karma” such as this…I don’t think so.”
–
Have to disagree Mulli. (Also, If I thought you and Thoughful were one and the same I’d ignore you).
So many “greedy buyers” agreed to pay for -(not bought)- more expensive houses than they could afford to pay for. Every single time this occurred one more home was taken off the market, putting more upward pressure on prices, perpetrating the “buy now or be forever priced-out” fear.
Their actions contributed to the high prices that caused many others to either decide to not buy or to simply realize they could not afford to buy.
Who among us didn’t see some fool with a substandard education, mediocre intelligence, and a simplistic job, jump in and buy a home and they shouldn’t have and then watch as they gleefully told all how smart they were and how much their home was going up in value?
It anyone needs a smack upside the head with the fish of reason, those folks do……
………….They and those who bought to rent to others, looking for massive price increase to make them wealthy….they too depleted the inventory and bid up prices to the currently unsustainable level they have reached.
They ALL need a dose of wisdom administered by whatever source they choose to recognize, karma or the foreclosure sheriff.
Then there’s your greedy flipper friends who contributed to ever higher sales prices and are now driving up rents. Doh!
pdu says,
“Who among us didn’t see some fool with a substandard education, mediocre intelligence, and a simplistic job, jump in and buy a home and they shouldn’t have and then watch as they gleefully told all how smart they were and how much their home was going up in value?
It anyone needs a smack upside the head with the fish of reason, those folks do……
………….They and those who bought to rent to others, looking for massive price increase to make them wealthy….they too depleted the inventory and bid up prices to the currently unsustainable level they have reached.
They ALL need a dose of wisdom administered by whatever source they choose to recognize, karma or the foreclosure sheriff.”
So therein lies the core of the bears argument, which is to say……..Justice must be served. Everyone who bought property in the last 3 years is either a slack jawed yockle, or has an evil agenda. Punishment is in order. Of course they weren’t buying to simply provide a home for their family or attempt to better themselves. Nope, that just couldn’t be the case because everyone has an angle. They ALL need to be punished. Incredible.
I take that back. Jake just gave me an amazing reach around.
“They ALL need to be punished. ”
Dunno about that. I can’t judge one way or another. One thing is for certain.
They ALL will be punished.
Sorry VOR, — in a market downturn after an irrational run-up, someone has to pay.
Anyone who bought over the last three or four years, not realizing prices were out of line with value was a fool.
They either bought blindly, assuming more debt than they could hope to repay, or they bought believing a greater fool would come along and pay even more than they did.
Most knew the prices made no sense, yet believed the BS about “prices always go up” and were foolish enough to buy into that, hoping to profit.
Someone has to pay.
Now, why are you so angry?
Do you feel those who didn’t play this fools game should pay?
This has nothing to do with “Justice must be served” or “Punishment”. Nor does it have anything to do with “…..buying to simply provide a home for their family or attempt to better themselves”, it’s all about the simple fact that through bad judgment, or greed, they made a mistake - knowingly or unknowingly they were part of the problem.
Most mistakes carry consequences. Most learn that at an early age.
Does this need to be explained to you or are you just angry, looking to put the blame on others or to cast others in a bad light?
Dear Lanser,
Please read your blog. The tr oll has a potty mouth, he is the only one who uses a potty mouth and you should do something. Don’t pretend you love the tro ll like everyone else because he generates hits. I don’t think anyone likes his potty mouth. Do you?
RealtorDaveE Says:
May 26th, 2008 at 10:50 am
Marcia,
Ominous signs indeed.
I’ve been through some pretty serious down cycles (’80 - 82, with 16% interest, ‘91 - 95 with everyone leaving SoCal), and they all seemed ominous at the time.
This time, however, it seems like the checks & balances that were supposed to prevent a recurrence of 1929 haven’t been working too well. I don’t expect it, but wouldn’t rule it out.
Another Great Depression might even give us enough perspective & respect for hard work & integrity to be worth it.
My gawd, I never, ever thought I would quote RealtorDave, but at least he has come to accept the reality off the market. Good for Dave, I just wish the Kool-Aid snorting fools woule be on the same page as you, you know… reality.
Dave, it is good to see you convert to reality. I know I gave you a hard time back in the Kool-Aid days, but you have accepted reality. Too bad those with the check engine light on are missing the point.
Jake,
Who do you think you’re fooling? You’re the one making the obscene post as Poggi and RH and trying to pin it on Mulligan and Thoughtful etal cause you can’t take the heat. Guys like you take stuff way to personally and when someone whips your butt in an argument you want to damage them. PDU and some others here are like that too but not as sharp.
I always knew Alfalfa was Thoughful posting under one of her multiple aliases.
Sound familiar?: — “….when someone whips your butt in an argument …”
Thoughful has been called out before for this same, weird concept — virtually identical phrasing, too.
Dang, she was here all weekend and back at it early today…………….
I thought you were ignoring me, peeuww?
VOR: “So therein lies the core of the bears argument, which is to say……..Justice must be served”
OK - you guys have just got to stop!! You call that the core of the bears’ argument?!?
Who are you kidding? Both statements - yours and the one you quoted are both idiotic.
Core of the bears argument my arse!!! Find me an investor (you really have to be an investor to be classifed bearish or bullish - otherwise you are simply a spectator) that thinks deserves, entitlement, or retribution have anything to do with market dynamics.
Man - your depression over the current market conditions have trully distorted your reasoning.
The man simply stated his opinion and you call it the core of the bear argument. Come on!!!
What are you guys, 4?
Pdu,
I guess Lanser stop reading his blog. If he did he could see now that the tr oll under names thoughtful, mulliganville, richard head, david pogi, seeking alpha are disruptive and obscene. Clearly lanser could check the ips and would see who is who and what is what. It is ashame that he values quantity to quality. But we are in tough times. I walked into a jewelry store and their was a huge line to sell diamonds and gold. GM and Ford stock prices are teetering on bankruptcy.
You might want to read Kevin Phillips book bad money for some insight into the current problem.
But this is an insight people should consider. Marketplaces sell products to customers who make choices. Those choices are based on information. With good information resources are efficiently allocated. But in so many ways the information in the market place has been distorted. The news media fanned the real estate bubble. The government allowed the privledged to have access to vast amounts of cheap money. This money was a form of information. Bad information.
With all this bad information floating about a lot of bad deals were made. Yes some people got wealthy, very wealthy, but our economy on the whole suffered.
And in our own tiny little blog universe Lanser continues to promote the information deception game. There are only two regular bulls on this blog. The t roll and his fifty names and Realtor Dave (although he is not sure we are going to have a depression). So Lanser has allowed the illusion that a debate is going on here. It is not. It is basicly one person stirring the pot probably to cope with his loneliness. These are tough times and you could see how such a disturbed individual could occur. But it is up to Lanser to stop it not attempt to profit from it.
test
As you can see the tr oll has some knowledge which allows him to post as an alternative name. Does anyone know what this knowledge is? (besides the tro ll).
Lansner would know:)
Dick Head had this to speculate: “As you can see the tr oll has some knowledge which allows him to post as an alternative name.”
Richard - YOU could use an alternate name.
[...] ‘039.6 acre-Coto mansion sells for $19.5 millionAiling O.C. builder gets half-billion-buck bailoutO.C. real estate/finance jobs creep up againO.C. homes seen as 25% less unaffordableO.C. home affordability jumps in 2008’s first quarterO.C. [...]
[...] ‘039.6 acre-Coto mansion sells for $19.5 millionAiling O.C. builder gets half-billion-buck bailoutO.C. real estate/finance jobs creep up againO.C. homes seen as 25% less unaffordableO.C. home affordability jumps in 2008’s first quarterO.C. [...]
[...] pace9.6 acre-Coto mansion sells for $19.5 millionAiling O.C. builder gets half-billion-buck bailoutO.C. real estate/finance jobs creep up againO.C. homes seen as 25% less [...]
[...] O.C. real estate/finance jobs creep up again [...]