Fresh homebuying stats from DataQuick shows you no longer need a half-million bucks to buy the mythical “typical” Orange County residence. For the 22 business days ended May 6, the median selling price was $490,750, a 22.1% drop from a year ago and 23.9% off the June ‘07 peak of $645,000. If the current pricing hold for all of May, it would mark the first time a month’s median had been below $500,000 since March ‘04.
The price fall is widespread as just 14 of O.C.’s 83 ZIPs saw higher median prices this year vs. last. (ZIP chart is HERE!)
The low pricing has helped sales activity a bit, as the latest reading shows volume above 2,000 purchases per month. Several measures of affordability suggest that local shoppers have far greater buying power today. April was the first month in nine months where sales topped that 2,000 level, which — I must add — is about half the historic norm. Here’s a look at the market for that period by key slices …
| Slice | Price | Vs. ‘07 | Sales | Vs. ‘07 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| House | $554,000 | -22.5% | 1,477 | -15.9% |
| Condo | $390,000 | -15.3% | 535 | -28.2% |
| New | $430,000 | -30.3% | 203 | -38.1% |
| All | $490,750 | -22.1% | 2,215 | -21.7% |
Nationally, Realtors reported today that April’s U.S. median selling price for an existing home dropped 8% vs. a year ago, to $202,300.
Per DataQuick, Single Family Median Home Price:
2006 ~ Month End
$690,000 = Feb ~ Watts forecast 15% for SFH
$695,000 = Mar
$705,000 = Apr
$705,000 = May
$700,000 = Jun
$699,000 = Jul ~ Watts revises forecast to 11%
$685,000 = Aug
$680,000 = Sep
$665,000 = Oct
$660,000 = Nov
$665,000 = Dec
2007 ~ Month End
$675,000 = Jan ~ Watts forecast 7% SFH
$675,000 = Feb
$695,000 = Mar
$720,000 = Apr ~ New Century Bankruptcy
$695,000 = May
$734,000 = Jun ~ Peak of O.C. Housing Bubble
$718,000 = Jul
$710,000 = Aug
$655,000 = Sep
$650,000 = Oct
$655,000 = Nov
$600,000 = Dec
2008 ~ Weekly ~ Month End
$600,000 = 01/07 ~ Watts “Pent up Demand”
$595,000 = 01/15
$595,000 = 01/23
$583,250 = Jan
$585,000 = 02/07
$575,000 = 02/13
$575,000 = 02/22
$575.000 = Feb
$580,000 = 03/07
$575,000 = 03/14
$567,000 = 03/20
$570,000 = 03/26
$570,000 = Mar
$553,750 = 04/08
$565,000 = 04/14
$563,000 = 04/22
$550,000 = 04/28
$555,000 = Apr
$554,000 = 05/06
Per DataQuick, this loss represents a $180,000 decline in single family home prices from the June 2007 high. And the beat goes on … and on … and on!
Today will be a sad day for the permabulls.
Let’s see:
median under 500K
NAR reporting prices down 16.7% in the West
oil at $133
gas over $4 everywhere in OC
unemployment going up
Your house is only worth what somebody is willing to pay, or should I say qualify for. Most people who are trying to sell their house don’t want to sell it, they NEED to sell it.
In order to do so they must keep lowering their price. Isn’t it great-LOL!
mav,
Maybe so, but he won’t back down.
graphrix Says:
September 26th, 2007 at 2:08 am
Ugh here we go again about the median price. Look if you had the data that John Karevoll and Hanley Wood have and like them see that the median is being skewed then it is. These people have 20+ years of experience in data collection and they say that the median is being skewed by the lack of low end sales. They both have said that the lower end sales have dropped higher than anything else.
I have taken the data from Irvine and you can clearly see that the median is skewed by the lack of low end sales. They have virtually disappeared. Yes the median works somewhat well for a large data set but when the data set is cut in half and the lower end is dropped and the upper end is now lower it changes. You can talk about statistics 101 all you want but without the data the conversation is meaningless. Make the data easily available and we can talk but without it we are all just wasting space.”
Wow, more than 2,000 resales alone! Too bad the picture is twisted by the lack of new home sales. That will continue to distort the picture until building resumes.
Sure the median doenst demonstrate ever factor of the market….but many where using it to show how strong the market was in years past….in that sense it is just as valid. The median works, because it can be used for comps in any neighborhood. Mostly as it relates to price per sq. ft.
So we are back to 04 prices. Wow! Now not buying in the last 4 years is looking like the smartest move ever. Imagine this, it is very possible that people who bought 4 years ago are in a home that is worth less than they paid for it. That is insane. So the current median is at 490…I had thought the bottom would be around 450 to 475, I may have to adjust.
“The median works, because it can be used for comps in any neighborhood. Mostly as it relates to price per sq. ft. ”
Huh?
DQNews just relaeased OC price per square foot data for resale homes. (Again, this only takes into account RESALE HOMES and not new homes).
2006 $/SqFt
Jun 444
Jul 433
Sep 435
Nov 420
2007
Jan 427
Feb 420
Mar 418
April 424
May 415
Jun 419
Jul 413
Aug 404
Sep 379
Oct 381
Nov 369
Dec 353
2008
Jan 345
Feb 335
Mar 330
Apr 322
Thoughtful, VOR, sighbur……….. let’s see you spin this. I know you despise the median but when comparing versus price per square foot data the median price has been a lagging indicator of the real drop in home prices.
Now looks like prices have dropped from $444 to $322 per sqft - which calculates out to a 27.5% drop in prices since June 2006.
How would 2004 prices put someone who bought in 2004 underwater? By my reasoning, they have had four years of enjoyment and are even. Then there are those who still have appreciation since then.
A median price per square foot for the county as a whole has the exact same value as a median price for the county as a whole, in a nustshell: NONE.
Most of us understand the median price is NOT an accurate indicator and has a lot of flaws.
However, it is (WAS) the number one tool used by this industry to lure people into buying overprice homes. THAT’S A FACT. Gary “in the bag” Watts likes to use it as a tool to get his army of minions in line.
what has inflation been since 2004?…… LMAO……
inflation adjusted price drops are going to be just horrid when we finally reach the OC housing bottom in pricing
It was the number one TOOL used by all the TOOLS in the industry. Thoughtless can I get some of the stuff that you are smoking?
Bubble reminds me of those protesters who yuck it up at the funerals of our soldiers.
this isa fun
Thoughtful does bring up a very valid point from Graphs post when THE UPPER END WAS THE ONLY THING THAT WAS MOVING. Then, the median was skewed upwards. Now that the lower end IS THE ONLY ONE MOVING, somehow the converse of this simple equation is not applicable. Hmmmm…why is that Bubble?
# Crystal Balls Says:
- “Bubble reminds me of those protesters who yuck it up at the funerals of our soldiers.”
–
Maybe it is time to go back to having these posts cleared by a moderator.
That is ugly.
You need to slink away — post under a different name with a different attitude.
You will soon see 50% reduction from the peak. The question is when.
50% discount, it’s gonna be a fire sale with no buyers. We still have the 2010 mortgage resets coming. Then it will be a bloodbath.
Oil will hit $150 a barrel, World markets will crash, Companies will start laying off workers, and works won’t make their mortgage payments, It’s a ripple effect.
If someone had an interest only loan since 2004 and the value of the home is the same as it was in 2004, they have basically rented their home for the last 4 years….and most likely at a much higher amount than they could have by actually renting a home.
If they bought in 2005 to 2006 and had an interest only loan, they not only just rented their home for those 3 years from 2005 to present, they also owe more on the house than it is worth.
To be fair to you thoughtful, because you seem to think everyone put 20% down, this doesnt take into account those that people. Of course with values off 21%, that 20% down isnt looking like all that much.
I know you need things spelled out for you very clearly to understand them so there it is.
Regardless you wont concede anyones point that doesnt agree with yours so whats the use of trying.
Things are not getting any better for people. Money is not falling out of the sky with the exception of the lame check the feds are handing out.
Gas is going up, sales are going down, jobs are being lost, house prices are falling, etc….if you think this is the bottom you really need to read a paper or two.
Sharky, we are through the bulk of the resets…there will be some every year, with 2010 being the very last of the 5 year loan resets with higher than avg. inventory movement predicating the adjustment.
Samson, many areas are seeing 2004 prices today. In most of those areas the cost to own in on par with renting. How then, can you support your argument that people who bought in 2004, at 2004 prices, would be paying more to own than rent? It defies logic. Pleae stop trying to pee all over everyone’s choices.
It’s really lame how people keep trying to convince everyone that owning a home sucks.
bloodbath ? someone call ?
Ei Caramba !
The price per square foot data is a hoot. It’s great to see it, but in truth, it’s essentially what I’ve been seeing in Ziprealty when you look at their trend feature. A plot of the data suggests that we are still inflecting downward, accelerating the rate of decline. This will be irrefutable once we get to September, and the very slight spring bounce effect has been worked through.
I suppose the bull response will be … “well that’s predominantly GG and Santa Ana” . . . but in fact, the $/Sq-ft drops in South Central OC have been just as shocking.
There is some blood in the street for sure, not even ankle deep yet though.
I’m very thankful that I don’t own a home presently.
What happened to Gary Watts?
And his predictions?
crystal,
what a horrible thing to say. you have said a lot of idiotic things in this blog, but that constitutes something a lot worse. shame on you.
oh my god, another horrible days in the stock market.
Home builders stocks are crashing. That usually means that another leg down in housing is coming.
# Crystal Balls Says: “Bubble reminds me of those protesters who yuck it up at the funerals of our soldiers.”
That statement is really despicable. You shouldn’t even joke with that.
# Thoughtful Says:
- “It’s really lame how people keep trying to convince everyone that owning a home sucks.”
–
In perverse sort of way your posts are the best example of how bad it can be for many.
Dr. Thoughtful says “I have taken the data from Irvine and you can clearly see that the median is skewed by the lack of low end sales. They have virtually disappeared. Yes the median works somewhat well for a large data set but when the data set is cut in half and the lower end is dropped and the upper end is now lower it changes. ”
I assume you have simply confused the “low end” with the “high end” in your statement above. On the other hand, a lack of basic math/ statistical skills would certainly explain your continuing bullish views.
IIRC, after New Century and the subprime industry belly flopped in Feb. 2007, the bulls continued to point to the rising median as evidence that the bubble would not burst, when clearly this was only a result of the lack of subprime hurting the “low end” disproportionately. THE NAR AND OTHER BULLS ARE IN NO POSITION TO CRITICIZE MEDIAN PRICES BASED ON THEIR PAST HYPING OF THE STATISTIC.
GD, your reading skills are what are lacking. Go back.
I think Crystal Ball’s comments about Mr. Bubble are pretty damn accurate. He behavior IS ugly.
“THE NAR AND OTHER BULLS ARE IN NO POSITION TO CRITICIZE MEDIAN PRICES BASED ON THEIR PAST HYPING OF THE STATISTIC.”
Of course they can, when it doesn’t work in their favor. That’s their M.O. Ignore stats that do have weight, hype the ones that are flawed, but always push the positive and spin the negative. It is propaganda.
MEDIAN is like looking at a pie chart with 3 big pie pieces that tell you nothing about what is truly going on…if anything it is one of those stats used to hide undesirable truths.
[SavingInLA] makes the best point with the PER SQUARE FOOT. The flaw in your calculation I assume is that you probably lumped beach front into the calc…take that out since it is a seperate world from OC Proper…Santa Ana to Ladera is OC Proper and subject to the average…Beach Front is a global market and needs to be removed.
Rock On!
MEDIAN is like looking at a pie chart with 3 big pie pieces that tell you nothing about what is truly going on…if anything it is one of those stats used to hide undesirable truths.
[SavingInLA] makes the best point with the PER SQUARE FOOT. The flaw in your calculation I assume is that you probably lumped beach front into the calc…take that out since it is a seperate world from OC Proper…Santa Ana to Ladera is OC Proper and subject to the average…Beach Front is a global market and needs to be removed.
Rock On!
Mr. Bubble isn’t like those funeral protestors. Those protestors want to impose their twisted ideology onto the world, and see inncocent victims as collateral damage in their self-rigtheous war. On the other hand, Mr. Bubble, er, nevermind.
how anyone with an IQ larger
than their shoe size cant see
the train wreck that our nation
is facing (orange county is
part of the entire nation last
time I checked) is simply
mindboggling… it defies logic
We rest our case.
Got a new name for National Bubbie “Grave Dancer”
Trying have a discussion with National Bubbie is like the old Who’s on First routine.
You notice how Bubble revels in digging up negative news (no matter how irrelevant to the local housing market). then ends his post with this hypocritical garbage.
“Is this ever going to end? I hope so because too many people are hurting.’
Thoughtful;
“In most of those areas the cost to own in on par with renting.”
Huh? Where? In Orange County? There very clearly is a disconnect between rental costs and home prices which is partly to blame for the current price collapse. Let’s see some proof of these areas you speak of.
Many bears already said in 2006 that the median price statistic comes with many flaws. Home prices in OC will continue to tumble whether we look at the median statistic or not.
Fact is that
- unemployment is up and will continue to go up
- the number of high(er) paying jobs is decreasing (e.g. Boeing)
- NOD and NTS going strong
- NOD and NTS increasing significantly along the “immune” Coastal region
- inflation is in double digits (ignore bogus CPI report)
- Sales volume down (20% vs. same month 2007…and 2007 was weak!)
- reduced consumer credit availability will further hurt local economy, job market and ultimately housing.
- Mass Psychology regarding Real Estate as an investment is shifting significantly
- HELOC money is working itself “out of the system” and will continue to put a huge damper on the economy that became accustomed to that funny money in circulation.
- The “cutting” of the interest rates by the Fed created a force against the downward momentum of home prices. Interest rates cannot be reduced much further and with that this resistance will no longer work be there against the downward price momentum. Ask yourself how that will affect the home prices…
* Inflation is the increase in price due to the depreciation of the currency as a direct result of the increase in money supply through creation. In the current economic and Real Estate environment, inflation will put additional downward pressure on home prices as food and energy prices rise. This will yield more home loan defaults and the potential homebuyer has less money for housing. So while many RE bulls look at inflation as a Saviour to the current housing crisis they ignore the fact that inflation can be the cause of increase for non-credit dependent purchases (food, energy, imports) while credit-dependent assets (e.g. Housing) will actually suffer from inflation in today’s economic environment.
Mulli says “we are through the bulk of the resets” this just isn’t true.
Residential Foreclosure Situation
• Sub‐primes are not the only iceberg in the
choppy waters
• $515B in ARMs reset in 2007
• $680B in ARMs reset in 2008
• The foreclosure pressure will continue to
increase into mid‐2010 and then drop off
dramatically
• Look for an extraordinary bailout of the
residential market to limit foreclosures
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey, March 6, 2008
nvest80,
you meant to say credit dependent assets (like housing) will suffer deflation
and you are exactly right, good post
Total Delinquency & Foreclosure Filings 2007
• US 2,203,295, up 75%
• Texas 149,703, down 4.6% (1 of only 6 down)
– California 481,392, up 238%
– Florida 279,325, up 124%
– Ohio 153,196, up 88%
– Michigan 136,205, up 68%
– Arizona 69,970, 151%
16 states
doubled or
D C o a69,9 0, up 5 %
– Nevada 66,316, up 215%
– Virginia 24,199, up 456%
Maryland 25 109 up 455%
more; D.C.
was up
– 25,109, 608%
– Connecticut 23,470, up 100%
– Massachusetts 41,487, up 161%
Source: RealtyTrac, Inc.
Data include all default, delinquency and foreclosure filings reported.
Thanks BTD -
I knew the Mulli comment wasn’t a match to what I had seen in the charts previously.
(Standard bull Wishful response now: Oh, those folks have refinanced already with fixed loans … )
WE HAD THE HOUSING BUBBLE.
NOW WE ARE HAVING THE OIL BUBBLE.
RealtorDaveE Says:
May 23rd, 2008 at 11:30 am
“Please remember that DQ reports are snapshots of the market 2 - 4 months ago”
May 23rd, 2008, 9:23 am · 53 Comments · posted by Jon Lansner/O.C. Register columnist
“For the 22 business days ended May 6, the median selling price was $490,750″
At the moment there are 3902 pending sales in Orange County. The median list price of those properties is $463,000. A month ago the median list price of pending sales was $475,000. It looks like we’re still sliding downhill.
Until the glut of low end bank owned homes get worked through, we’re not going to see much stability in the median. With 900 foreclosures last month it’s going to be a while.
Thoughtful Says:
May 23rd, 2008 at 9:58 am
A median price per square foot for the county as a whole has the exact same value as a median price for the county as a whole, in a nustshell: NONE.
Seeing as how you like to use Irvine as a bellwether of OC, lets take a look at the sqft. price compared to JULY 2007, not even a full year.
92604: 362 vs. 461 -22%
92606: 354 vs. 391 -10%
92612: 374 vs. 402 -7%
92614: 386 vs. 411 -6%
92618: 354 vs. 440 -20%
92620: 302 vs. 369 -18%
Average sqft. 355 vs. 412 -14%.
Thanks for quoting me from back in September. Would you like for me to copy and paste the quotes from you/ROC, that proves you flip flop on what data point fits your agenda? I will come back later to read the responses, and depending on how ridiculous they are, I will bust out the sqft. data for 2006 vs. 2008. It might make the bulls’ heads explode with that.
mav,
You say this is a good post, but what nvest is stating as fact is, in fact, speculation, yes? How can we take this as fact when it is full of fuzzy qualification language?:
Fact is that
- unemployment is up and will continue to go up
- the number of high(er) paying jobs is decreasing (e.g. Boeing)
- NOD and NTS going strong
- NOD and NTS increasing significantly along the “immune” Coastal region
- inflation is in double digits (ignore bogus CPI report)
- reduced consumer credit availability will further hurt local economy, job market and ultimately housing.
- Mass Psychology regarding Real Estate as an investment is shifting significantly
The phrases “going strong”, “significantly”, “ignore bogus CPI”, “ultimately housing”, and most expecially the whole statement regarding RE psychology.
I am willing to believe anything that is truley factual, but this sounds like a combination of spectulation and opinion. Nvest, you are certainly welcome to your opinion, and you post good points, but this sounds more like an argument for than a factual account.
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CRYSTAL BALLS/ SIGHBURGOO GOO AND THOUGHTFULLESS
ALL OF UR COMMENTS ARE NULL AND VOID U HAVE CROSSED THE LINES OF NORMALCY
PLEASE RETURN UR KEYBOARD TO BILL GATES AND PUT ON DUNCE CAP IMMEDIATELY
REPORT TO THE WIZARD OF BLOGGING MR LANSNER FOR FURTHER DISCIPLINE
LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
Lord,
copy your text, press back arrow, reload page, press submit. works every time. i dont even have to copy and it works just fine…i just press back, reload, submit.
MULLIGAN/GILLIGAN
PLEASE RETURN YOUR KEYBOARD WITH ABOVE REFERENCED NAMES PLEASE
UR ALIASES ARE JUST MIND BOGGLING HOW DO U KEEP UP.
WIZARD OF BLOGGING LANSNER NEEDS U TO REPORT TO GARBAGE DUTY IMMEDIATELY
U R A DISGRACE TO THE BLOGGING COMMUNITY….
LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
VOR,
There are some things that you don’t need someone else to tell you as FACT; you can observe them for yourself. Do you mean to say that unless someone puts out a poll or study, people can’t notice things for themselves?
if you eat, you’ve presumably bought groceries and may have noticed that the CPI reports are bogus. Anyone who says the price of maintaining a household hasn’t gone up a MINIMUM of 10% in just the last year, has a maid to do the shopping or can’t do simple math… like that oil company executive who couldn’t “remember” whether or not he made more than $4million dollars during this past week’s congressional hearings — who probably has both a maid AND a bad math brain.
Also, if you live in OC you presumably drive a car, run AC in your home from time to time (or the heater — or sometimes both, in the same week, when temps go from the 100’s to hailing in some places– but not to worry — “there is no such thing as global warming”). How much more are you paying to run those now than last year?
if you’ve read or listen to just about any news, you’ve no doubt heard that CA broke all previous records for NODs and Defaults last month… AGAIN!
if you’ve looked at housing foreclosure stats in EVERY area in OC you’d have noticed the coastal areas slowly beginning to participate in the NOD’s and defaults — no area is immune, but people can keep hoping.
And if you are one of those “OC is special and the rest of the nation doesn’t matter” folk, I would suggest you take a look at the number of dollars and jobs tourists bring into our county, for everything from visits to Disney to visiting our beautiful coastal areas. What happens to an already faltering job market and economy when those people outside of OC don’t have the same amount of money to spend here?
credit availability? Ask Wamu how many HELOCS they’ve closed, and how many credit cards they are planning to give out this year. LOL
jobs? if you have 20 friends of employment age, ask them whether their companies are currently hiring. If they are, please post job details here, I know 3 people (one lawyer, one former mortgage processor, and one soon to be laid off teacher) who would be interested, as two of them have been out of work for MORE THAN 9 months.
Mass psychology? Ask ten friends if they would buy a home today. What do you think we’ve been talking about on these blogs all these months? The LACK OF PEOPLE who’ve been willing to buy up the supply of real estate… the “spring surge” (about half of “normal” volume?) notwithstanding.
This is an election year… and we all know by now that the gov’t is not above LYING to us when it suits their purposes (”Iraq did it”- referring to 9-11 ; “the war will be over quickly”; “the war will pay for itself with the oil”; “the war will bring down the price of oil”; “there is no wiretapping”; “well, there was wiretapping, but it wasn’t illegal”; “there is no torture”; “there is no waterboarding of prisoners”; “OK there is waterboarding of prisoners but near-drowning them is not really torture”; “the economy is going strong”; “there is no recession”; “there is no inflation”;… need I go on? Because I could…
Anyone who is making plans for their future based on what the GOVERNMENT is telling you about CPI, or waiting for some gov’t statistical study to tell you that yes, there is serious inflation, the dollar is critically devalued, and things are not looking so good, is going to be in for a rude awakening, because the gov’t is NEVER going to admit this stuff, and they will try not allow any others they control to admit it either, ESPECIALLY in an election year.
In a few years, after many of the masses have lost their life’s savings (but the insiders only get richer) some obscure gov’t entity will release a study that will say something like, “oh… the revised stats DO show that we WERE in double digit inflation etc., but that was three years ago…. and thanks to quick gov’t and fed action, we pulled out of it very fast blah blah blah… and aren’t we LUCKY that current inflation is only 9% and things are looking up?… blah blah blah”
“Truly factual” has unfortunately become a relative concept. Even “truly factual” data is skewed to serve a purpose. The only way to survive in this type of environment is to keep your wits about you, look around, notice what is going on for yourself, and take action… or in the case of buying real estate, maybe NOT take action.
inflation from 2004 to 2008 is god awful
basics like petroleum, rice, grains, etc…… have doubled in price…. or more………. while home values continue their decent
[...] Comments mav on Early May O.C. home price below $500,000househunting on Early May O.C. home price below $500,000mav on O.C. homes seen as 25% less [...]
Geez househunting what a windbag
Househunting,
First of all, I’m focused on the state of RE in OC. I realize that the high price of fuel and other basics can eventually have an effect (of undetermined strength) on housing, but the link is not direct or immediate.
Secondly, I don’t necessarily need hard data to back up every point, BUT, when someone writes something like: “Mass Psychology regarding Real Estate as an investment is shifting significantly”, you know you are in trouble. This is strictly an opinion with no basis in fact. I could just as easily say that since sales are up, people are in the mood to buy.
So, my point is this: When you write an oratory to prove your point, make sure it is based in solid fact, with little wiggle room. Otherwise, it just sounds like another half-baked, biased opinion.
Lastly, if we are going in the tank, then that’s the way it is. I’m willing to accept that, but only if it is true beyond a reasonable doubt.
On the other hand, if someone just writes a rambling rant (sorry rants), then it means nothing and only makes the poster look ignorant. And I want to make it very clear that I do not consider nvest80 to be that. He/she is a good writer/poster.
The median continues to be skewed by crashing prices at the high, mid, and low end.
I guess the worst April in transaction volume since 1995 wasn’t such a positive development after all.
Anyone who yucks it up at the funeral of someone who gave thier life in the defense of our country is nuts.
Anyone who yucks it up at the fools who did flips on ultra premium homes in Turtle Rock, and it’s dumpy cousins Villages of Columbus or Talega? It might be mean, but it’s pretty sane.
I can’t wait to see what the bears say at the end of summer when we’re off another 10%+ from the peak.
BTW, there’s a reason the big end houses aren’t selling. They are unsellable. That means they are valuless. Just like somebody who bought a Esclade in 2004 for $50K only to try to trade it in today and discovering it’s worth about $7k IF you can find somebody to take it.
the drop in big SUV prices is equally funny
Diana posts a positive note for the housing market and she crosses into hedging bets? Please!
I sometimes wonder if the bears on the boards here are the same bears who used to post on investing forums in 2001. We all know how that one turned out, this one’s the same. There were some signs of stablization in the NASDAQ then too.
From the posts of the last couple of days, I see the bears have switched tactics from denial to shoot the messenger because your leveraged asset has consumed your whole net worth. And to those people………..
I am laughing at you.
Had a few already huh NoVas? you’re slurring your posts
Hardly. I don’t drink. Not till June 30th anyway.
But I see I was correct in my above posts. Just shoot the messenger, never mind the facts.
Only had Tee Martooni’s?
Thoughtful,
Sorry I have a real job and can’t check and post this messageboard every 15 minutes the way you do.
Guess I shouldn’t have been surprised that you completely dismissed the data but there is no doubt the price per square foot (PPSF) records are more accurate than the median data.
Just look at the numbers above. If you look at the PPSF data you will see that prices started to come down in 2006 in June right about when sales started falling. This initial fall in PPSF price marks the beginning of the RE bubble burst. The same cannot be said by the overall median which continued to mislead until June of 2007 when a progressive drop in the median began.
So while Graphix may have criticized the overall median in 2007 b/c of a relative decline in lower price zip codes the PPSF was holding its own and accurately describing the drop that began in mid-2006.
PPSF data is more accurate because it has a narrower range ( $250/sf to $1000/sf for a factor of 4) than does overall price (ranges of 200K for a condo to 35 million for a home) and a narrower standard deviation. In addition, the PPSF numbers are usually more consistent per region - i.e. a 2000 sf Huntington Beach home may cost $500/sf of $1,000,000 and a 4000 sf home in same location may sell for 2million but it will still be about $500/sf. While an overall median may correct for some of the overall price changes you can’t deny that the overall price fluctuates to a greater degree b/c of location and size of home.
The PPSF data was a better leading indicator in 2007 and will continue to be into 2009.
I even like PPSF data more micro than that…as per subdivision within the community. Huntington is too big and there is too much variance of product. Same plans in my community vary by as much as $50,000 depending upon location and upgrades.
reading posts by nvest80 and househunting
is so refreshing … especially after reading
thoughtless/VOR/gilligan/sighburwhatever
ad naseum… its like reading william shakespeare
after reading mad magazine
Bill Says:
May 23rd, 2008 at 1:28 pm
RealtorDaveE Says:
May 23rd, 2008 at 11:30 am
“Please remember that DQ reports are snapshots of the market 2 - 4 months ago”
May 23rd, 2008, 9:23 am · 53 Comments · posted by Jon Lansner/O.C. Register columnist
“For the 22 business days ended May 6, the median selling price was $490,750″
Bill–
Please understand, DQ reports closings of escrow, which lag opening of escrow by about 45 days in a normal market, but are closer to 60 days on average currently due to the difficulties getting loans.
Today is May 23. DQ’s report was for closings for the 22 business days ending 5/6. On my calendar that’s 4/22 - 5/6. Those sales would have gone into escrow anywhere from 2/20 - 3/21, which is actually 2 - 3 months ago. It’s not uncommon for escrows to open 2 - 10 days after negotiations begin, and DQ has a longer lag time for the monthly reports than the partial reports, which is why I said “roughly 2 - 4 months ago.”
DQ tells you what was going on 2 - 3 months ago.
Any active Realtor can tell you what’s happening this week, if they’re honest.
There’s a place for closings, but we need to remember that “DQ’s median stats are a snapshot of the market 2-4 months ago.”
This was all explained in the link I put up, had you clicked on it. The comment was already long enough.
Thanks for listening.
Thanks Dave for being an honest broker here.
Househunting,
Great, well thought-out post! And great points in them too.
I have to laugh (painfully) when government inflation figures come out…inflation is eating away at the family checking account. I was around in the 70’s and 80’s but was too young to have had to earn enough of a living to keep a family fed and sheltered like my mom and dad then but this is starting to take on that same kind of desperate feel I remember they had while sitting ’round the table talking about where their money was going. Rising inflation could lead to a complete disruption of our service-based economy and if so will make the current “Credit availability” housing retraction look like a warm up. We’d better get used to tight supplies of oil and high gas prices forever and adapt to them or this nation could be crippled for a very long time.
One good thing about living here in the LA/OC area is we are close to major refineries and the two Major ports in the country. In the near future, our access will be a HUGE benefit to this area’s economic vialbility during possible national economic crisis. I would hate to be facing the remainder of the Peak Oil years far from the coasts and economic and refining centers of the country like the Mid or mountain West will be.
I was the one who brought price per square foot numbers to the blog. I showed 3 and 4 bedroom homes in good neighborhoods were down around 14%. Thanks, Graphix for proving my numbers were correct. And I never said price per square foot was invalid, I said when they are countywide, they are as useless as a countywide median.
What people are talkng about on the streets is getting ready to pounce.
i have been tracking the inventory for the past 18 months for a targeted group to purchase as investment propert. I have seen that inventory increase from 7 to 182 (now down to 172). I suggest that anyone who thinks this is a good time to buy do it, anyone who doesn’t be content to sit on the sideline. I have read these posts for the past several months and i learned a long time ago, you don’t argue with an idiot because it makes you both look stupid.
that house in Tustin is worth about $350k - anyone who is buying now is going to be burried for many, many years. we are going back to reasonable prices that people need to have 45% DTI or below to qualify. 45% DTI to qualify means $250k mediun price. Figure out the math - thats what most people in OC can qualify for. And if you think this doesnt effect so called “high end homes” your kidding yourself. 80% of the people that live in these “high end homes” in OC couldnt even qualify for a $250k mortgage right now. Eventually, they will default.
Househunting,
Good vent.
Reading the goofball posts by those unable or unwilling to acknowledge what has happened and not retorting foolishly is difficult.
You did well.
Your bit on the skewing of the data is replayed here daily. Those desperate to deny real estate price deterioration grab any and all numbers in a futile attempt to show that they are right and reality isn’t really happening.
[...] The undervalution fits with evidence that O.C. bargain hunters are nudging home sales up, with recent Re/Max data showing new purchase deals in the works at a two-year high. Clearly, Global Insight/National City’s new undervalued rating for O.C. is a result of falling home prices. By this math, O.C. home prices fell in the 1st quarter at a 19.7% annual rate, steepest drop in this database dating to 1985. O.C. prices are off 24.4% vs. the peak reached in 2006’s final quarter by Global Insight/National City’s count. (DataQuick has O.C. homes off 24% from its June ‘07 peak!) [...]