My occasional glance at TFS Derivatives‘ weekly report on trading of home-price contracts shows that money’s being bet on further drops in regional values as measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller indexes. It’s one more projection, one backed up by somebody’s cash.
The local pain, by TFS’ math, will be steep looking at the April reading of the 10 S&P/Case-Shiller regional indexes and how recent traders’ bets translate to November 2009 pricing:
• LA/OC -24.8% (Much of that drop, an 18.5% drop by TFS math, will come by this November!)
• Vegas, -22%
• Miami, -20%
• San Francisco, -14.1%
• New York, -12.9%
• San Diego, -12.9%
• DC, -11.1%
• Chicago, -10.7%
• Denver, -9.8%
• Boston, -4.4%
These traders don’t see much of a cyclical bottom forming this bring, for sure. The 10-city composite index shows a 9.8% through November ‘09.
Everyone’s got an azz…. er, opinion.
That’s incredible. The hits just keep coming. That doesn’t suggest much of a bottom does it? Perhaps these traders know something that the bull[s] doesn’t?
Hmm. Whom to trust…those who put their money where there mouth is…or those who just use their mouth? Seems like an easy decision to me.
C’mon guys, who you gonna believe Case Shiller or Thoughtless? We get a little spring bump and all the bulls claim the housing crunch is over. Let’s see the 2nd and 3rd quarter sales numbers before we get too excited here. If mortgage rates go up 0.5% you just lost a large % of the potential buyers and rates won’t be going down.
This sounds about right, the 20% drop we already have plus another 20% gives a 40% drop……………..
The next big news will be the collapse of home prices in the expensive, exclusive areas. And that will cause the median to drop like a rock off a tall building…………..
You gotta love this. All the “bears” are just guys who have sold their house, or never owned a house, and they simply want prices to come down so they can get a lot for their money. Nothing wrong with that, EXCEPT when you feign concern for society as your motivation. Same for the “bulls” on the other side, They probably own and want things to settle down. EXCEPT they’re not claiming any false altruistic cause.
Come on “bears”. Come clean and we can all be friends!
opinions? LOL
opinions are what you find on a blog………
this is big money betting on big price drops……..
18.5% further drop?…….. it’s amazing how it agrees with all fundamental valuation calculations…..
VoiceofReason Says: “All the “bears” are just guys who have sold their house, or never owned a house”
Some bears just want people to stop using houses for speculation and want home prices to reflect economic fundamentals. Is that too much to ask?
Sort of.
Yes
I’m beginning tothink some of the perma bulls on this blog have multiple aliases that th ey use. It would not surprise me if these individuals have multiple personality disorder in real life.
I think you’re on to something there menaulus. How do you think this started, and what can we do about it?
Re: OC projected decline in ‘value’: “Much of that drop, an 18.5% drop by TFS math, will come by this November”
If it actually does drop another 18 percent by November, I don’t think we’ll see any more surveys where 60% of the people in OC think that their house didn’t lose value in the last year. John Q Public will, for the most part, be educated after such an event.
VOR: “All the “bears” are just guys who have sold their house, or never owned a house, and they simply want prices to come down so they can get a lot for their money.”
Hate to tell you but there are plenty of bears that own RE, are currently buying RE and are making money in RE.
Being a bear in a region for RE does not mean you’re not buying RE in other areas.
Where do some of you guys get your reasoning from - this blog?
Some of these traders are quite wealthy and do live in homes they own.
Please stop with the ridiculous opinions that are blatantly false.
If you trully feel that way - I call you out right now. I’ll setup the meeting - my place - bring the cash. Such stupidity is beneath everyone here, including those that made the statements.
By the way, the terms bearish and bullish are intended to characterize an investor’s position. Most people on this blog that use these terms so freely would have a hard time falling into either category.
Hell- most of the bulls here have not even bought RE in the last year. How can you be labeled a bull when you are not buying?
VOR: ” Same for the “bulls” on the other side, They probably own and want things to settle down”
VOR: Do you HONESTLY believe a word of what you wrote?
this is the equivalent of Las Vegas giving USC -20 points against some third rate team thrown into their schedule…….
come on Thoughtful…. take the opposite side of the bet…. I dare you
of course…..you may already be… ALL IN…. LOL
thoughtful….you can win the bet…. and still lose big…….. at least it’s a hedge LMAO
nbi says:
“Please stop with the ridiculous opinions that are blatantly false.”
Since that characterizes your whole post, maybe you should look inward grasshopper. And, maybe you shouldn’t take yourself so seriously nbi. You really need to lighten up. Calling people out in a blog and asking them to come to your house with cash is…………ah…………..ill advised. (and by ill advised, I mean laughingly ridiculous).
“Please stop with the ridiculous opinions that are blatantly false.”
Funny how that is never said to the “side that shall not be named”.
RealtorDave,
Don’t worry everything will be great when the Fed Rate is 0% and conforming mortgages are at 8%.
RealtorDaveE Says: “The trouble is, interest rates are up from February, and look like they’ll keep rising.”
Interest rates are up? Time to buy houses. Buy now before you are priced out of the market forever.
RealtorDave, I know that you are not saying that but I love it when realtors (not you) use interest rates to their advantage. If rates are going down they say: “rates are down, best time to buy now that it is affordable”
If interest rates are going up they say: “rates are up, buy now before you are priced out of the market”
The truth is that if you have a good down payment (20% or more), you want interest rates to go up because you’ll be at a competitive advantage since most buyers don’t even have 10% down. You’ll pay less for the house and you can always refinance later one when rates come down.
# VoiceofReason Says:
“You gotta love this. All the “bears” are just guys who have sold their house, or never owned a house, and they simply want prices to come down so they can get a lot for their money. Nothing wrong with that, EXCEPT when you feign concern for society as your motivation. Same for the “bulls” on the other side, They probably own and want things to settle down. EXCEPT they’re not claiming any false altruistic cause.
Come on “bears”. Come clean and we can all be friends!”
—-
After reading and re-reading this several times I’m starting to think there might be some correlation between the thinking that went into writing it and the thinking that believes the market is poised to ascend again soon. No linear thought process in either case.
Take this line: - “they simply want prices to come down so they can get a lot for their money. ”
So what? Why wouldn’t anyone wanting to buy want this?
That was followed by: - “Nothing wrong with that, EXCEPT when you feign concern for society as your motivation.”
Seems obvious one should have a concern for others as well as for themselves………What if you bought a house at a price that those that followed were unwilling to pay?….Perhaps most would stop buying, or buy elsewhere …..that’s not good for “society”………. which leads to an interesting thought here:
Our resident bull seems to feel that those who bought in the past are “entitled” to the false prices homes reached in the past — overvaluations, caused by speculators and others who paid more than today’s market value. Talk about a warped sense of entitlement.
Then there was this line: - “Same for the “bulls” on the other side, They probably own and want things to settle down.”
Settle down? Isn’t that what we are seeing?
This settling down is good for society. Settling of prices to a level of affordability will bring back a “normal” market where those who want to sell will find buyers able to buy.
That past craziness is gone. Done.
Loans with no investment by the buyer, made to those unable to pay, didn’t work then and won’t work now.
Bill, you are a total waste of oxygen. I can see you know peering over your gigantic gut googling like a mother****** for any layoff announcement. What a complete piece of sh!t you are. You disgust me. And ass, you claim 750 layoffs equals 750 foreclosures? That’s the stupidest comment ever posted here. Good luck asswipe.
pdu, you don’t know jack. No down loans are available today, and people are rushing in to take advantage.
Thoughtful,
You have been disgusting me for an entire year now and will continue to until you foreclose on your home.
These are top headlines on every news site, you imbecile.
Get off this blog and start reading the news before you lose even more brain cells!
Hey Bill, you forgot to read your links AGAIN. It’s clear all you do is look for bad headlines, you piece of garbage.
On Boeing:
“The company said it will help the employees find jobs at other Boeing locations.
Some of the regional industry’s recent setbacks could be offset by increased business from the KC-45 tanker contract recently awarded to Northrop Grumman Corp., which the company says will create some 7,500 new aerospace jobs in California.”
Lemme see: down 750, up 7500. Oh, the tragedy.
And your ksby link? Lame. You don’t read any of what you post, do you? You’re pathetic. I hope some very bad things happen to you.
Thoughtful,
My, my…………… you’re an angry nutcase when things don’t go your way.
Are these “real” news headlines getting in the way of your brainwashing techniques in here?
I think so.
Asswipe, they are gobbledygook. The vast majority are reports from other states. Reports of job losses that have ZERO impact on us, but are still a wet dream to you. I am sooooo going to enjoy watching the market continue to rebound. I am just glad that I don’t know what you look like because I vomit in my mouth just seeing your words and I would need to sterilize my brain if your image entered it.
pdu,
thank you for reading my post over and over. Your comprehension of four simple sentences is impressive. I think you missed the point though. So, go ahead and read it 50 or 60 more times, see if it comes to you, and get back to us. We’re all waiting for your in-depth interpretation.
Thoughtful,
You usually get angry and throw temper tantrums when you’re up against me.
First, the Boeing job losses are real.
Some, in fact very little will be relocated out of state for re-hire while the majority will be out of a job all together.
Second, the Northrop/Grumman contract will likely be eased back once the war ends and most of the job increases from that contract will absorbed by their own employees as previous contracts come to a close.
So don’t count on too many job increases in aerospace in the future.
Question for the bulls (seriously):
Do you consider the market to have turned if sales volume increases? As has been said before, as a buyer, I only care about price. If 10,000 houses sell, but prices drop 30%, that’s good for me. Why do you think that sales volume means prices will follow, or that increasing sales volume even matters? To me, the bottom is in price, not volume.
Bitter Pill Bill
A headline that actually says something of substance:
“UBS sells subprime assets to BlackRock for $15B
Swiss banks unloads risky positions on newly created investment”
ZURICH, Switzerland (AP) — Swiss bank UBS AG said Wednesday it sold subprime and other mortgage-based securities to a newly created investment fund run by U.S. asset manager BlackRock Inc. for $15 billion.
The securities had a nominal value of $22 billion but have been listed with a book value of $15 billion as of March, UBS said.
The sale is part of an attempt by Switzerland’s largest bank to offload risky positions that contributed to writedowns of $37.4 billion over the past nine months.
Investors have shunned mortgage-backed securities over fears too many of the loans were made to people with shaky credit who may eventually default.
The fund received a $11.25 billion loan from UBS to buy the assets. Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER, Fortune 500) has a 49% stake in New York-based BlackRock.”
Who is likely to participate in the CME Housing marketplace?
Builders who have an inventory of homes to sell may wish to hedge the inventory with CME
Housing futures and options.
Banks, lenders, holders of mortgage portfolios and others with housing-related risk can also use
these products for risk management. Holders of mortgage portfolios and mortgage insurers
currently hold a significant exposure to home prices, and a sustained decline in housing
combined with high loan-to-value (LTV) ratios could result in dangerous levels of mortgage
defaults. Government-sponsored entities (GSEs), agencies, and other issuers of mortgages also
would benefit from participation in these markets in order to address the risk inherent in their
portfolios. In addition, hedge funds and investment groups seeking portfolio diversification and
the possibility of profit from changing housing values can find opportunities in these products.
Finally, investors at large will find CME Housing futures and options useful to provide exposure
to a very important asset class without incurring the difficulties of actually executing real estate
transactions.
Thoughtful..you lack a brain to sterilize so don’t bother…when, prey tell, will this rebound be occuring? Maybe this summer? Median up 10%! no too conservative up 20%! in the next month…all the way to the moon!
Give me actual data that says conclusively that the median OC price will be higher in the next 6 months. Oh, wait you don’t like the median when it doesn’t agree with you…okay, then show me the ipoplaya type listings of all of the OC where the asking for NON-REO listing price/sales prices ratios are greater month over month or YOY…come on, show me. Come out with the hard data. Show me the data where by $/sqft the trend is going up YOY and that NON-REO homes are selling at rate that clearly puts them into a sellers market.
What I think is happening for the most part is that some capitulation has occurred and those that did lower their price made the best decesion yet…because those that raised the price in hopes of catching the spring buying wave..well, they look like fools and now out of luck.
No, what you’ll probably do is what you always do…ignore, blather or post that nasally “I don’t have to show you anything, find it yourself”…I have…it’s called reality maybe you should see it some time.
Eat that.
“Up against you”? Ha. You are a clown. You’ve been thrashed by every single “bull” here too many times to count. You’re full of sh!t on the Boeing story. And the American Airlines story is completely irrelevent. You really are a joke.
New,
I am not the most qualified to answer this, but I think it is simple. More demand (increased sales figures) will eventually lead to smaller supply, thereby driving prices up. That may take awhile, even years, because there is a lot of inventory to go through, but if there is steady demand, price increases will follow. And, it obviously beats the hell out of no sales and plummeting prices.
I will be happy to provide those stats to you in the near future, eat it. Not that I owe you dogsh!t, just to shut you up.
Thanks Alfalfa, for the great information on these instruments.
Well said, VOR.
Thoughtful Says:
May 21st, 2008 at 4:37 pm
A headline that actually says something of substance:
“UBS sells subprime assets to BlackRock for $15B”
You ignoramus!
Banking losses from the subprime mortgage collapse total $379 billion and you’re mumbling about $15 billion.
Small minds think small!
Asswipe, it’s the start of creating a market. I know that’s over you fat, bald head.
New, if volume continues to increase, you will find yourself on the wrong end of a negotiating advantage. It only matters what the “prices are” where YOU want to live. If you don’t care where you live, then you’re good to go.
You need to read Jon’s headline again.
The big money doesn’t agree with you.
In fact, hardly anyone agrees with you.
“You need to read Jon’s headline again.”
I read more than headlines, unlike you.
Well, clearly you mean me, RealtorDaveE. Sorry to upset the apple cart. I simply can’t stomach that guy.
PDU, you are a breath of fresh air. What VOR is saying is that I should be thinking, “I want prices to stay high so I can get LESS for my money.” Wow, you really called out the folly of his thinking. What rational person wants to get less for his money? I’ve got a good chunk saved up, but I’m not buying until prices come down to a reasonable level.
And Thoughtful, what kind of person uses words like “a**wipe”? Sorry, but you are becoming the laughing stock of this blog. Your comments reflect an appalling lack of maturity, which pretty much matches your take on the current housing situation.
To all the decent people who frequent this blog, I apologize for my outburst. Please know that it is only because I detest people who take joy in people losing their jobs. Most of these stories are not even from our area, but they are still pimped-out to serve a purpose. I find it truly disgusting and hard to accept.
Bill, your Bloomberg story misspoke. The one I posted is crystal clear.
Wow, I care so much about what someone named BubbleLee thinks of my take on housing.
It was said a time ago that Thoughtful was a woman. I sincerely hope that this is not true seeing the filth that she has written today. Turns this blog from something somewhat relevant to low class bar atmosphere.
I do not take joy in people losing their jobs.
But I also do not try to hide the facts like you do.
This news is what’s really happening to our economy.
Homebuyers can decipher what the economy’s future holds and make rational, sound decisions as to when the best time to buy would be.
Unlike you, who will steer people into a financial disaster to better no one but yourself.
dear Mr. Lansner: your blog is being spammed by one “thoughtful,” who has now turned to vulgarities (see above). please sanction and/or bar this clown from your blog.
Bubble says;
“PDU, you are a breath of fresh air. What VOR is saying is that I should be thinking, “I want prices to stay high so I can get LESS for my money.” Wow, you really called out the folly of his thinking. What rational person wants to get less for his money?”
Bubble, all is relative. What you should be thinking is that I won’t get less for my money if I already own. Is this concept above your comprehension? What a ridiculous thing to say. Bubble, you have proved many times that you have no credibility because of your obvious agenda. In fact, you are the very difinition of feigning social conscience for profit. Your “oh, I feel so sorry for……..” posts are laughable. Everyone here knows this. And PDU, a “breath of fresh air” ?????????? HAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Your pal pdu is strictly a cheap shot artist. Not surprising that he is your hero.
Mom, you have quite a selective memory. I am called vile things daily. And can your better-than-everyone-else attitude that you bring in here consistently. “Low class bar” indeed.
You have absolutely no idea who I am, where I come from, where my values lie.
I don’t have a better than everyone else attitude, but find it pretty hard not to say something when you claim that people like me, who think prices should come down much farther, have a false sense of entitlement: such as Lee from Irvine, you made some pretty crude remarks to him about him never having a house in Turtle Ridge. Granted, all I’ve heard about Lee is about him being a college kid in a rental. But who am I to say that he doesn’t have family money to use, or his parents won’t buy him a house after graduation. You just never know about people.
I’ve never heard someone calling you cuss words over and over on this board and if I did, like the ones you’ve used today- I would write in on your behalf and ask for it to be stopped.
Mom, the remark I made to Lee had to do with him promising/gloating that he will buy in Turtle Rock at “more than 50% off”. If that’s what he needs to swing it, then that is why I said it wouldn’t happen. Lee is ALWAYS using derogatory terms for owners and/or anyone in the industry. How many times has he used the slurs “cheap suit wearing carnival barkers” or similar insults? Daily. No, I don’t know you, but you do present airs here. And anyone who uses phrases like “low class” usually has an issue. We don’t have a caste system here, even in Corona del Mar. I suppose you support Bill?
I bet if my handle was “MOM from Santa Ana”, it would be a whole different story.
No issues here, especially with the low class thing. You can have no money at all, not a penny to your name and show class. I grew up in one of the small towns in the south, went to the same high school as Terrell Owens (you can read where he is from), and the same people living in trailers showed class. And I’ve been in low class bars, and “a@@wipe” was a regular word there.
Support Bill? Absolutely. He is our president, and even though I feel mistakes have been made- I will still support him. My grandfather received the bronze star last year before he died, for fighting in a war. My husband was a USMC pilot. I support our troops, support our president, and love our country. BTW- I will also support BHO or Hillary if elected. People have a right to different views, which is why we have democrats and republicans, and they don’t sit there calling people those names I’m reading on this simple blog today. I guess they have more class…..
Which is why I apologized. I was taught that that was class. I also meant the Bill who posts here. Again, I AM sorry, but I have really had it with both Bill and Bubble and their dispicable gloating over the pain people are going through. Since you’re a southern girl, you probably agree that it is not decent or acceptable.
Testing the bottom is giving us a clear idea of which way we need to go.
You can’t stand on one leg for long, “don’t be fooled” and worse “don’t believe your own foolishness”.
Thoughful, you don’t need to apologise for calling a dork a dork. Those guys are just whimps. They even had to call for help from Mop in CD.
Looks like months and months of blog squatting and no ez money commish check has driven truthi over the edge. We had an over\under office bet when she would snap. Dude…settle down, it’s only money, there will be another bubble train soon.
btw..i didn’t think she’d snap until the real chaos this summer (I had late july), so i won’t be winning the truthi pool.
You know I’ll bet Mop in CDM is really a 20 something Poli Sci major posting from her apartment near UCI. And the life she just created for herself is really her older sisters.
Hey PDU,
Here’s the answer to your question.
Well if I was a big Investor and if I believed that this was the bottom and that sales an values would begin to rise, I’d be buying Mobile Home Parks. They are cash cows as well as a great long term land hold. However, as a hedge against unforeseen calamity I would establish CME Furtures contracts based on Case/Shiller. That way if I had $50,000 in contracts and the unexpected happened, when the contract hit the exercise price it could be worth $1,200,000. Any other questions?
alfster you are such poser
Thanks Thoughtful for the last comment- gloating over anyone losing money isn’t right and you are right to defend yourself. Sorry if I used the class thing incorrectly.
Alfalfa- I could only wish to still be a 20 something still in college!! nice try.
Jon Lansner:
It is high time you start moderating this blog. It is going downhill fast.
Prediction of further 24.8% drop has made some bears come unglued on this blog.
This blog should be for intelligent and meaningful posts. It is time to keep out posts that don’t add value to this blog.
It’s been a busy day and I’m late to the party. Did some catching up, though. I must say - Thoughtful… being mean won’t make you any prettier. Samson: you out there today, buddy?
I always suspected thoughtless lived in a trailor
park after reading her posts today I’m sure of it
just as the readers of this blog have wised up
to a classless thoughtless…. the world
is wising up to our cheapened dollar
the more the fed debases the dollar the sooner
the rest of the world will start shunning
worthless dollars in exchange for real things
like food and oil… welcome to the 21st centurys
version of the roman empire
Bears:
Good attempt to distract from main topic of this thread!
Let me re-post the headline here:
Traders see LA/OC price falling 24.8% more
Anyone for meaningful comments?
I meant bulls.
Mike Wizowski:
I am still trying to figure out how you can jump from 750 layoffs at Boeing story (and Bill’s comment) to ‘Bill, do you think Aerospace workers are stupid?’
Enough of stories about how people have made money in RE. It does not change the fact that now is not the time to buy. Headline of this thread makes it amply clear.
mike w says his firm is hiring by the boatlaod
BOATLOAD mike would that boat be the size
of the titanic or gilligans minnow? please
tell us what company is doing the boatload
hiring enquiring minds want to
Bill Says:
May 21st, 2008 at 3:44 pm
“Boeing to lay off 750 SoCal workers after losing contract”
Boeing said the first 100 satellite employees will be laid off in July. The remaining 650 workers will be released in July and August
Add 750 more foreclosures to the list.
Hey fool, Many of those workers are engineers with highly sought after skills. They will have no problem finding new jobs. Many will find new jobs within the company right here in SoCa. Others will go work for one of Boeing’s many SoCa suppliers. You are disgusting.
Looks like we have one poster with obsessive personality who is posting under different names. No wonder he keeps coming back to same topic.
Yeah thats it. There is only one poster who doesn’t agree with all the lies and exagerations thrown around here.
NationalBooble had this to pitch: “24% further drop in home prices makes a lot of sense to bring affordability back to 2002 levels.
And with oil at $133/ barrel, we’ll be lucky if the whole economy doesn’t collapse. ( And while I’ve got you suckered into visiting my website, please be sure to sign up for, or buy something - my house payment is rapidly approaching.)
Lies and exaggerations are made by both sides. We had David Lerach of National Association of Realtors spinning stories for a long time in the national media.
That premium is about to come down by 24.8% soon.
Thoughtful,
Apology accepted. Thanks.
I wasn’t just thinking of you however–common courtesy once was the oil that lubricated relationships. Hopefully on this blog it still can.
Somehow it’s easier to be rude on line. I think if we were all in the same room we’d pretty much do fine. We all do share an interest in, even a passion for real estate.
The world is ending! What a bunch of IDIOTS! The negative BLOGGERS on this site only wish that everyone would fall on their face so that they can be scavengers.
No only the greedy bast*rds who got us into this mess in the first place (sounds pretty close to the mark for you)
Dave,
No passion for real estate here……..damn stuff is presently overvalued:)
# SeekingAlfalfa Says:
Hey PDU,
Here’s the answer to your question.
Well if I was a big Investor and if I believed that this was the bottom and that sales an values would begin to rise, I’d be buying Mobile Home Parks. They are cash cows as well as a great long term land hold. However, as a hedge against unforeseen calamity I would establish CME Furtures contracts based on Case/Shiller. That way if I had $50,000 in contracts and the unexpected happened, when the contract hit the exercise price it could be worth $1,200,000. Any other questions?
—
Just one.
Are you always that obtuse?
A major in BS?
Bill, you are a sad individual. A layoff does not equal foreclosure…just what is wrong with your mind? You get pocket 7’s and go all in don’t you…
Sorry, I did say just one:)
It’s really the same question twice - asked in an obtuse way:)
“A layoff does not equal foreclosure…”
–
No,………….not always.
pdu, Bill’s statement was ignorant at best.
blogging daily for something you are not passionate about raises even more concerns about your psyche pdu…especially since you know that our opinions will not alter this market one teensy tiny little bit.
Must be a slow newsday…we moved relatively quickly from the topic down the proverbial rabbit hole of discussing blogging etiquette and examples of what mature adults should behave like.
Thank you Thoughtful for your apology. Shows you have at least that amount of maturity.
I understand your passion, even if we sit on opposite sides of the mirror.
Our caring just takes on different faces: yours is concerned for those in their homes hanging on by a thread that may break at any moment; mine, from the standpoint of those out there who did the responsible thing and didn’t over-commit just to find a Congress attempting to reward those who acted irresponsibly.
Each has merit and justification.
Back to the matter at hand.
I wonder if anyone has done an estimate of the monthly average mortgage payment that borrowers committed themselves to from Dataquick?
If the number is $2300 for a 30 year loan (would be nice if it printed the rate too, so we’ll make an assumption of 6% on average), that yields an average loan of $385K, down from whatever it was the previous period.
Now you’d have to get that info for OC.
I think this would be useful information, because the loan level takes out all the pricing noise. What it indicates is what monthly payment folks can afford.
Of course you can’t see the down payment, but could probably make a guess at that.
With $385K loan amount, down from the previous period, my guess is prices will have to continue to fall.
I would look for a median from $400K-$450K before all is said and done.
But that’s only my square on the dartboard.
If they have football pools, why don’t we do a median price pool. Everyone can pick a median price square, pay $2 for the privilege, and then whomever wins gets the $100…seems like a much better idea than calling each other names…what do you say?
This is what I was referring to from Dataquick from the Southland Report for April 2008:
“…The typical monthly mortgage payment that Southland buyers committed themselves to paying was $1,716 last month, down from a $1,816 the previous month, and down from $2,356 a year ago. Adjusted for inflation, the current payment is 18.3 percent lower than the spring of 1989, the peak of the prior real estate cycle. It is 33.1 percent below the current cycle’s peak in June 2006.”
If monthly payment is down 33%, but prices are only down 20%, I am curious if this is a leading indicator…
Update on UBS stock since they were forced to re-price
their shares at a 31% discount……….
Last night shares tumble 4.1% (29.34)
Ladenburg Thalmann cuts ratings on Morgan, Lehman, Merrill to sell from neutral
Lehman Brothers cuts Barclays saying that it believes the shares are likely to continue to discount the likelihood of more significant write downs.
I like calling names better. It doesn’t cost anything.
A simple apology for your ridiculous conclusion about these people who will be laid off would be mature of you William…hence the crickets.
Falling, falling, falling…
535k. Man, the deal of the century…
====================
Long Beach Democrat Laura Richardson
Richardson paid $535,000 in January 2007 for a three-bedroom, 1,600-square-foot place.
A March 2008 foreclosure filing says Richardson owes her lender Washington Mutual more than $578,000 and her home will be sold at auction.
even a congresswoman can’t afford the median home….. LOL@ribsplitter
Does not look good at all
# Mulliganville Says:
- “blogging daily for something you are not passionate about raises even more concerns about your psyche pdu…especially since you know that our opinions will not alter this market one teensy tiny little bit.”
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Come on Mulli, don’t be so serious. It’s not THAT bad, is it?
I believe you missed the:) I put at the end of my comment:
# pdu Says:
May 21st, 2008 at 10:50 pm
Dave,
No passion for real estate here……..damn stuff is presently overvalued:)
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Sometimes the ugliness here needs a touch of lightness and an attempt at humor. Sorry ……..
Maybe next time I’ll make it more clear. :) :) — that better?:)
Wow, thought went kind of crazy yesterday, huh? All the talk about job losses probably hit too close to home, I’m guessing. A reaction as vile as that doesn’t happen unless you’re hitting some buttons. I really do not think anyone takes light of those numbers, its more of a “I’m proving my point the economy is faltering” statement.
That being said, there are plenty of great jobs out here in OC, just have to start looking for them. Might be a better use of time than spending all hours responding to comments in the blog… if I’m incorrect in my assumption, then I apologize in advance.
you are right pdu…my blind tired eyes missed the :)…my bad.
NationalBooble had this to pitch: More bad news for the housing market. OFHEO just released their home price index. Home prices in California are down 10.6% OUCH!!! Read the report
. ( And while I’ve got you suckered into visiting my website, please be sure to sign up for, or buy something - my house payment is rapidly approaching.)