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Mid-county’s homebuying slump over?
May 20th, 2008, 3:00 am · 125 Comments · posted by Jon Lansner/O.C. Register columnist
Analysis of DataQuick’s April O.C. homebuying report shows the county’s midsection — where the pain of credit crunch struck first — is showing some of the earliest signs of a market bottom.
Mid-county ZIP codes — Santa Ana, Anaheim, etc. — had 534 sales last month, a drop of just 1% from a year ago. What likely got shoppers buying was bargain hunting. In these mid-county 24 ZIPs, last month’s median price change was off 25.0% vs. a year ago. (Do you see a bottom? VOTE HERE!)
Compare that to countywide trends where sales were off 19% while the median selling price fell in the past year by 21%. Last month, 20 of 83 O.C. ZIPs enjoyed sales gainers year over year vs. just 2 in March. Of April’s 20 gainers, 12 were from the mid-county zone. (ZIP-by-ZIP chart IS HERE!)
The buying slump has landed ashore in the county’s beach-close communities. DataQuick identified 388 homes selling in beach cities’ ZIP codes last month, an 18% drop from a year ago. Pricing remains firm. In these 17 oceanview ZIPs, last month’s median price was off just 2.6% vs. a year ago.
In other O.C. regions …
• South inland ZIPs had 657 sales, a drop of 24% from a year ago. In these 19 ZIPs, last month’s median price change was down 15% vs. a year ago.
• Nouth inland ZIPs had 493 sales, a drop of 26% from a year ago. In these 23 ZIPs, last month’s median price change was off 20.9% vs. a year ago.
To read more about O.C. April homebuying, CLICK HERE!
May 20th, 2008 at 5:49 am
Another bottom as oil hits 127.50
May 20th, 2008 at 6:20 am
Jon
Your bias is showing. ” Evidence of a market at its bottom” The only question I have for Jon, Jeff Collins, Steve Thomas, Gary Watts and all the Realtors that spread their propaganda . Don’t you care about the little guy at all? Schiller predicts a 17% drop in prices in our area for 2008. If a first time buyer saves up $50,000 and buys now his equity next year may be zero. Won’t you guys feel proud.
May 20th, 2008 at 6:35 am
Interesting that pricing is firmer in the nicer areas. I wonder if the new conforming-jumbo rates are having an effect?
Oil at $128.60, though, so I wouldn’t get too excited, there Thoughtless. We are still in crash and burn mode here with our 20 million barrel per day addiction. There is a reason they call it, “The Devil’s Tears,” you know.
May 20th, 2008 at 6:41 am
Oh my god. Oil just passed $129. Horrible news for the OC economy.
Anybody who thinks $4 gas doesn’t impact the economy is crazy.
May 20th, 2008 at 6:45 am
Damage Control! Scotty can you give me more power?
May 20th, 2008 at 6:46 am
“Analysis of DataQuick’s April O.C. homebuying report shows the county’s midsection — where the pain of credit crunch struck first — is showing some of the earliest signs of a market bottom.
Mid-county ZIP codes — Santa Ana, Anaheim, etc. — had 534 sales last month, a drop of just 1% from a year ago.”
By NEXT month all of Orange County will be in that position - the first month in 2 years with YOY higher sales.
The bottom of O.C.’s real estate cycle is HERE - NOW! It is time for the bears to start making their dens a bit more comfortable - you’re in for about a 6-10 year hibernation. Ni-night!
May 20th, 2008 at 6:48 am
Aye Captain, but I’ll have to shove a wiener throught the warp drive and I don’t know if we have enough mustard.
May 20th, 2008 at 6:55 am
I don’t think this is the bottom yet. Prices are still too high. Too many foreclosures still coming on to the market.
May 20th, 2008 at 6:57 am
This isn’t bottom. This is the same thing that happened in 1991. Dead cat bounce.
Look for 2 to 5 more years of price declines until the median is in the high $200’s
May 20th, 2008 at 7:02 am
Hey National Bubble … speaking of oil and the OC Economy. I took my family to Sea World on Sunday, and for the first time I can remember, there was absolutely NO TRAFFIC on the 5 freeway. My wife and I were shocked and amazed that we made it to Mission Bay from Irvine in a little over an hour.
I’m sure you could blame some of this on the heat, however Sea World was a nice escape at about 80 degrees. Most of this can be pinned on rising gas prices, and an economy that was dependent on real estate.
These events ARE NOT anomaly’s, they are a sign of the times. Something has gone wrong … very wrong.
May 20th, 2008 at 7:08 am
Has anyone noticed that Mick always posts in pairs?
May 20th, 2008 at 7:08 am
Oops. bleary eyes. But he does anyway.
May 20th, 2008 at 7:18 am
Another bottom today. How about next week?
May 20th, 2008 at 7:38 am
Ahh, lee
That 200 mile round trip to SD cost you a whopping $10.00 more than it did a year ago (200 miles @20mpg X $4.00=$40.00/200 mies@20mpg X $3.00=$30.00). Shamu will not see the unemployment line any time soon. Stop with the ridiculous fear mongering. You’re not fooling anyone (except maybe bubble).
May 20th, 2008 at 7:55 am
Thoughtful Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 7:08 am
“Has anyone noticed that Mick always posts in pairs?”
Thoughtful Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 7:08 am
“Oops. bleary eyes. But he does anyway.”
You found your kindred, I would say.
May 20th, 2008 at 8:01 am
Dude, you’ve been calling bottom in every post for the last 3 weeks. It’s spring. We know that already.
Prices off 25% year-over-year sure doesn’t sound anything like a bottom to me.
May 20th, 2008 at 8:05 am
I commute to LA and there is definitely less traffic than last year.
Well, it looks like rich people are also hurting with this housing crash.
Interesting to see what Steve Thomas is now saying about the high end market.
May 20th, 2008 at 8:14 am
Has there ever been a year where sales haven’t risen between March and April?
May 20th, 2008 at 8:17 am
I hate to agree with Truthiness and Mulliganville, but there had to be a volume bottom somewhere. Somewhere somebody has to buy/sell a property and we are likely at the floor for transaction volume.
Now, give me three months of YOY price increases (not 25% off) and YOY volume increases (not 19% lower) and you’ll have a market bottom. Some neighborhoods ‘only’ have another 20% down to go, others haven’t started yet. Watch headlines for the onslaught of Alt A defaults.
May 20th, 2008 at 8:22 am
Hey, Relish Brain, your stupid website is quoting a 37% drop in “price” for Newport Beach/92660, but you forgot to show that there’s also a zip with 160% price increase and another with a 38% price increase. It’s either all accurate, or it’s all dog excrement.
Newport Beach 92660 $1,020,000 -37.80%
Newport Beach 92661 $2,700,000 38.50%
Newport Beach 92662 $5,495,000 #N/A
Newport Beach 92663 $2,325,000 160.70%
May 20th, 2008 at 8:23 am
That’s pretty hysterical, Mr. Vaseline. You will call bottom when you see three months of YOY price increases? Good stuff, good stuff.
May 20th, 2008 at 8:28 am
Refi Boom on it’s way
http://appraisalnewsonline.typepad.com/appraisal_news_for_real_e/2008/05/fha-appraisers.html#more
May 20th, 2008 at 8:34 am
That’s a done deal, Alfalfa. The Senate Banking Committee passed it 19-2 with a full Senate vote coming in June.
May 20th, 2008 at 8:36 am
Refi boom, buying boom, bottoms is here….fresh batch of kool-aid.
May 20th, 2008 at 8:42 am
Thoughtful,
Wow that was fast. They’re really rushing it through. I’m guessing you’re probably pretty good with Excel so here’s little toy I found on that same website. Just plug in the formulas and see what you get.
http://appraisalnewsonline.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/2008/05/06/4_zilpy_demographics_3.png
May 20th, 2008 at 8:45 am
Glorious News indeed. a 25% drop clears out a 33% gain…keep it going folks!!! Hell is the inability to communicate with reason…Hell be gone…Glorious I tell you!!
May 20th, 2008 at 8:49 am
what kind of kool aid is mortgage broker kool aid?
purple or red?
May 20th, 2008 at 8:53 am
Nope, no refi boom here.
“Mortgage refinancing in the U.S. is increasing as record numbers of homeowners dump their adjustable-rate mortgages for the security of a fixed loan.
The amount of refinanced home loans will reach $321 billion by the end of June, the most in a year, according to estimates from Washington-based Fannie Mae, the largest buyer of mortgages. Nine out of 10 of those borrowers will choose a fixed rate, Fannie Mae said.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=au53A_G4d.nI
Oh yeah, that’s on top of lender modifications.
May 20th, 2008 at 8:56 am
Interesting write up in the LA Times this morning via LA Land
“The L.A. Times’ Peter Hong reports this morning that the luxury real estate market is beginning to crack. Homes like the Beverly Hills mansion at left are being reduced in price — this one was originally listed at $12 million, then reduced to just under $10 million.
“Median sale prices fell by 13% in Beverly Hills in April, compared with the same month last year. Rancho Palos Verdes dropped 18% over the same period, while Newport Beach’s 92660 ZIP Code took a 34% hit, according to DataQuick Information Systems.”
More: “Experts say these areas and others are catching up with price declines that struck first in outlying suburbs such as the Antelope Valley and the Inland Empire, where many first-time home buyers purchased their properties with sub-prime loans. ‘You can’t have one market hugely cheaper than another forever,’ said UC Berkeley professor Thomas Davidoff, who specializes in real estate.”"
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2008/05/reduced-was-12.html
May 20th, 2008 at 8:58 am
I guess you missed this, Larry.
Hey, Relish Brain, your stupid website is quoting a 37% drop in “price” for Newport Beach/92660, but you forgot to show that there’s also a zip with 160% price increase and another with a 38% price increase. It’s either all accurate, or it’s all dog excrement.
Newport Beach 92660 $1,020,000 -37.80%
Newport Beach 92661 $2,700,000 38.50%
Newport Beach 92662 $5,495,000 #N/A
Newport Beach 92663 $2,325,000 160.70%
May 20th, 2008 at 9:16 am
Here is more from the LA Times;
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-homes20-2008may20,0,4081478.story
“The decline in the high-end market can be seen in both the Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area markets, according to a study released Monday by First Republic Bank of San Francisco.
The weak economy suggests that prices will remain depressed for some time, said First Republic’s president, Katherine August-deWilde.
“People worry about their jobs and incomes — even rich people,” she said.
Orange County’s more expensive neighborhoods are also seeing price declines, DataQuick figures show.
“The market over $1 million has definitely changed,” said Aliso Viejo broker Steven Thomas.
Thomas said his review of local data found that the number of Orange County homes going into escrow at selling prices above $1 million was down 30% in April from a year earlier.
Foreclosures, which had been almost unheard of in high-end markets a year ago, now account for a substantial share of listings. In Coto de Caza, where the average listing price is $2 million, 17% of the 167 homes for sale are either foreclosures or “short sales,” in which the listing price is below the amount owed on the property, Thomas said.
In Mission Viejo and Laguna Hills, Thomas added, foreclosures and short sales make up more than 40% of the homes for sale. Elsewhere in Orange County, “there is tremendous activity below $500,000,” Thomas said.”
May 20th, 2008 at 9:24 am
What a worthless mish-mash of nothingness that is.
May 20th, 2008 at 9:27 am
Yeah, I like to post in pairs. It’s a cool internet thing. If you post in singles it’s old school man. Get with the times Thoughtful.
May 20th, 2008 at 9:28 am
And here is my second message to complete my pair and to blow Thoughtful’s sorry mind.
May 20th, 2008 at 9:29 am
Ha ha ha ha ha ha. This one is really cutting edge! It’s called a “triplet post”
May 20th, 2008 at 9:34 am
The bottom for sales activity was the winter we just passed. A continuing onslaught of must-sell REOs pretty much guarantees that, barring World War III.
The bottom for price is yet to come. Most likely. Same reason.
See “Snapshot from the front lines: One bottom, maybe two.”
And, Ed, please don’t lump Jon, Jeff, & all Realtors in with Gary Watts. Not being a “perma bear” does not make one a “perma bull.” We can’t all be Cal State Fullerton.
May 20th, 2008 at 9:35 am
What a mess!!
Meredith Whitney (the analyst who predicted that Citigroup would have to sell assets or cut its dividend) is now saying that the credit crisis is “far from over”
May 20th, 2008 at 9:49 am
There are presently 67 homes in Laguna Beach that are either Bank Owned, on their way to auction, or in default.
Here come the Comp Killers to precious Laguna Beach.
Hold it a moment … I thought everyone was RICH in Laguna.
May 20th, 2008 at 9:56 am
Foreclosure Radar shows 24, with most of those being preforeclosures with very small amounts due. What’s your source?
May 20th, 2008 at 9:59 am
no, not laguna beach
24? LOL maybe he is counting NODs, one showed up down the street, too funny for rich people to handle
May 20th, 2008 at 10:00 am
Go easy on the uber-bears. A string of positive news posts has them spinning like the proverbial Duncan Butterfly Model.
Hang in bad news bears. Lansner has done this before. I predict he will soon hit us with his dreaded spitball of bad news soon. That should perk you up.
May 20th, 2008 at 10:03 am
VoiceofReason Says: “Hang in bad news bears. Lansner has done this before. I predict he will soon hit us with his dreaded spitball of bad news soon. That should perk you up.”
It looks like even YOU know that the worst is far from over.
May 20th, 2008 at 10:03 am
Nice try, NODs are in there:
Notice of Default - This is the first notice filed in the foreclosure process and is our starting point. From this document we can find out how far behind the owner currently is in their payments (default amount) at a given date (default date). We also gather whatever information we can about the owner, the property, and the loan the notice pertains to. From here we complete our file by adding additional data.
May 20th, 2008 at 10:03 am
Though I could make a stronger point by outing some of the individual houses facing foreclosure directly, I don’t think it’s a good idea to do that. I don’t think Jon would like it either.
I will say this; I know of a pod of soon to be Comp Killers at the top of Newport Coast. When they’re inevitably placed back on the market, DOWN GO THE COMPS.
This entire scheme was just that … a unsustainable Ponzi Scheme.
It’s Pay Day!
May 20th, 2008 at 10:06 am
This is a normal seasonal increase and in no way means anything close to a bottom. Anyone who sees this as anything less is clearly ignorant about how the market volume picks up this time of year. Wait a few months and see what happens.
May 20th, 2008 at 10:17 am
/
May 20th, 2008 at 10:18 am
Same thing in Newport Coast, only 6 out of 24 homes were/are being foreclosed upon. The vast majority of the pre-foreclosures are for very small amounts.
I think the comps should be fine, here’s just April’s:
Newport Coast 92657 $3,200,000 +66.2% 18 -50.0%
May 20th, 2008 at 10:20 am
Hey Poggi,
I sure hope you bought that place in Temecula, from what I hear things are really poppin out there. You may turn out to be an incidental genius.
May 20th, 2008 at 10:24 am
I know that a few of these are double posted because they have more than 1 loan in default … but the numbers are still expanding every week. I guess Bill Gross was right 20+ years ago when he published his “Plankton” Theory. Oh my, History is repeating itself once again.
Laguna Beach, CA 92651
NOD = 43
Auction = 16
Bank Owned = 8
May 20th, 2008 at 10:27 am
BTW, the figures above do not include condos and multi-family homes.
May 20th, 2008 at 10:31 am
Aliso Viejo has 189 loans in the beginning default stage!
Here come the Comp Killers! NO ONE COMMUNITY IN ORANGE COUNTY WILL BE EXCLUDED!
May 20th, 2008 at 10:33 am
The place I’m hopefully getting is in Murrieta, and I just got a job paying the same amount in Temecula. So now I won’t have to commute to Irvine. I’m getting it for 45% off last years price. So genious may be a bit strong, but I’m pretty happy with the deal I’m getting.
May 20th, 2008 at 10:33 am
Laguna Niguel is even worse, unfortunately.
May 20th, 2008 at 10:34 am
OMG, you’ve got to be kidding me?
Laguna Niguel has 207 loans in the default stage, 70 homes facing auction, and 56 Bank Owned properties.
May 20th, 2008 at 10:39 am
SeekingAlfalfa Says:
Hey Poggi,
“You may turn out to be an incidental genius.”
No doubt.
May 20th, 2008 at 10:40 am
What your source? BTW, Foreclosure Radar returned two completely different answers when queried on Laguna Beach. The most recent try turned up 86 properties, but many were duplicates. Maybe 65 were not, so using that number one half of one percent are in default for any amount. Another way to say it: 99.5% of homes are not in default.
May 20th, 2008 at 10:41 am
Aliso Viejo is already at rental parity. Comps killers? I doubt it. More like feeding frenzy.
May 20th, 2008 at 10:43 am
Comps for Aliso:
Aliso Viejo 92656 $451,500 -1.7% 72 -18.2%
May 20th, 2008 at 10:44 am
regardless thoughtful, that really should not happen in Laguna Beach or Newport Coast……… those numbers reek of financial chaos……..
AV is a disaster and it’s spreading to LN, they are not quite at rental parity but getting there and my bet is they will both get below rental parity
May 20th, 2008 at 10:46 am
Wow, Aliso comps at 1.7% off YOY. And 72 of them!
May 20th, 2008 at 10:46 am
Now hold on a cotton pick’en minute (STOMP-STOMP)!
We have been told by EVERY PermaBull, every local “Real Estate Professional”, every latte drinking bimbo, and every cheap suit wearing carnival barker, that the exclusive areas of Orange County would not be hit by this Ponzi Scheme. Isn’t that right, Gary Watts?
Well, it looks like they’re wrong-o once again!
Isn’t it funny how easy this was to figure out … yet those that drank enough Kool Aid, thought we were the crazy ones.
Meanwhile, I wait to buy my Turtle Rock home for about 50% to 60% less than the peak price.
May 20th, 2008 at 10:48 am
The bears have huddled together and wisely changed their “spring bounce” talking points to the topic of foreclosures. We shall see what the appetite is. I wonder if the fact that it’s a deep seller’s market for foreclosures will mean anything?
May 20th, 2008 at 10:54 am
Thoughtful when 40% of homes for sale are distressed, with 2600 NODs now going out a month……… I think it would be foolish not to consider foreclosures in the OC.
Watching “rich” home debtors in Laguna Beach and Newport Cost get an NOD?
priceless
May 20th, 2008 at 10:56 am
2 points regarding rental parity:
A) Rents are declining for SFH’s in The O.C. I don’t need some local “Market Pro” to tell me it isn’t happening, when I know it is.
B) The cost to buy a home, and service a 30 year fixed, with 20% down, will eventually decline below the rental cost. Just as it did in the mid nineties.
But now is no time to pull the trigger … The O.C. still has significant (perceived) equity to evaporate.
May 20th, 2008 at 10:57 am
Lee, lower your standards. You’re not getting into Turtle Rock at all.
Here’s a pending at $467 a square foot.
http://socallistings.marketlinx.com/portal/publicList.aspx
May 20th, 2008 at 11:00 am
thougtful do you have any pictures/profiles of people who knife caught in the tech bubble
before you hit a bottom you will see many support levels
this may be the bottom……. yeah the bottom of the 4th inning
May 20th, 2008 at 11:08 am
This is totally off-topic, but we just had our termite inspection and the buyer’s had their inspection at our house a couple days ago. Both inspections went well… a little “too well” if you know what I mean. They both seemed to overlook things that, in my opinion, a 5th grader with a flashlight would find. I think everyone is so eager to close a sale these days. A little too eager. As the seller, I’m sure not going to complain. But, it’s got me a bit concerned as a potential buyer.
May 20th, 2008 at 11:13 am
For Aliso, there are 41 homes scheduled for the foreclosure at the Santa Ana court house in the next month.
Last month 14 either went back to the bank or were sold.
Don’t worry, the bottom is here! I just want to know how can you see the bottom when you have your head in the sand?
May 20th, 2008 at 11:14 am
Come on Thoughtful … The greatest housing Bull Market in OC History, has indeed set the table for what I believe may become a once in a lifetime opportunity.
I don’t believe the regulators nor the securities markets will allow this again. In other words, no more (or at least limited) dumb money to people that can’t afford to repay. In the meantime, they’re gonna unload this stuff at record paces. Watch and see.
I love Orange County, and part of me is sad about these events. But there’s nothing we can do to stop it, so you (if you have the means), should get your ducks in order, and be prepared for opportunity.
May 20th, 2008 at 11:17 am
You know, Lee is a perfect example entitlement run amock. Turtle Rock in Irvine is a very high end enclave in the only hilly part of Irvine. Most people there have long since paid their dues. Lee, the renting graduate student, has targetted this area for his next (first?) home. It will NEVER happen, but it goes to show you just how out of touch and greedy his kind is.
May 20th, 2008 at 11:18 am
“Don’t worry, the bottom is here! I just want to know how can you see the bottom when you have your head in the sand?”
I believe your s