Analysis of DataQuick’s April O.C. homebuying report shows the county’s midsection — where the pain of credit crunch struck first — is showing some of the earliest signs of a market bottom.
Mid-county ZIP codes — Santa Ana, Anaheim, etc. — had 534 sales last month, a drop of just 1% from a year ago. What likely got shoppers buying was bargain hunting. In these mid-county 24 ZIPs, last month’s median price change was off 25.0% vs. a year ago. (Do you see a bottom? VOTE HERE!)
Compare that to countywide trends where sales were off 19% while the median selling price fell in the past year by 21%. Last month, 20 of 83 O.C. ZIPs enjoyed sales gainers year over year vs. just 2 in March. Of April’s 20 gainers, 12 were from the mid-county zone. (ZIP-by-ZIP chart IS HERE!)
The buying slump has landed ashore in the county’s beach-close communities. DataQuick identified 388 homes selling in beach cities’ ZIP codes last month, an 18% drop from a year ago. Pricing remains firm. In these 17 oceanview ZIPs, last month’s median price was off just 2.6% vs. a year ago.
In other O.C. regions …
• South inland ZIPs had 657 sales, a drop of 24% from a year ago. In these 19 ZIPs, last month’s median price change was down 15% vs. a year ago.
• Nouth inland ZIPs had 493 sales, a drop of 26% from a year ago. In these 23 ZIPs, last month’s median price change was off 20.9% vs. a year ago.
To read more about O.C. April homebuying, CLICK HERE!
Another bottom as oil hits 127.50
Jon
Your bias is showing. ” Evidence of a market at its bottom” The only question I have for Jon, Jeff Collins, Steve Thomas, Gary Watts and all the Realtors that spread their propaganda . Don’t you care about the little guy at all? Schiller predicts a 17% drop in prices in our area for 2008. If a first time buyer saves up $50,000 and buys now his equity next year may be zero. Won’t you guys feel proud.
Interesting that pricing is firmer in the nicer areas. I wonder if the new conforming-jumbo rates are having an effect?
Oil at $128.60, though, so I wouldn’t get too excited, there Thoughtless. We are still in crash and burn mode here with our 20 million barrel per day addiction. There is a reason they call it, “The Devil’s Tears,” you know.
Oh my god. Oil just passed $129. Horrible news for the OC economy.
Anybody who thinks $4 gas doesn’t impact the economy is crazy.
Damage Control! Scotty can you give me more power?
Aye Captain, but I’ll have to shove a wiener throught the warp drive and I don’t know if we have enough mustard.
I don’t think this is the bottom yet. Prices are still too high. Too many foreclosures still coming on to the market.
This isn’t bottom. This is the same thing that happened in 1991. Dead cat bounce.
Look for 2 to 5 more years of price declines until the median is in the high $200’s
Hey National Bubble … speaking of oil and the OC Economy. I took my family to Sea World on Sunday, and for the first time I can remember, there was absolutely NO TRAFFIC on the 5 freeway. My wife and I were shocked and amazed that we made it to Mission Bay from Irvine in a little over an hour.
I’m sure you could blame some of this on the heat, however Sea World was a nice escape at about 80 degrees. Most of this can be pinned on rising gas prices, and an economy that was dependent on real estate.
These events ARE NOT anomaly’s, they are a sign of the times. Something has gone wrong … very wrong.
Has anyone noticed that Mick always posts in pairs?
Oops. bleary eyes. But he does anyway.
Another bottom today. How about next week?
Ahh, lee
That 200 mile round trip to SD cost you a whopping $10.00 more than it did a year ago (200 miles @20mpg X $4.00=$40.00/200 mies@20mpg X $3.00=$30.00). Shamu will not see the unemployment line any time soon. Stop with the ridiculous fear mongering. You’re not fooling anyone (except maybe bubble).
Thoughtful Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 7:08 am
“Has anyone noticed that Mick always posts in pairs?”
Thoughtful Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 7:08 am
“Oops. bleary eyes. But he does anyway.”
You found your kindred, I would say.
Dude, you’ve been calling bottom in every post for the last 3 weeks. It’s spring. We know that already.
Prices off 25% year-over-year sure doesn’t sound anything like a bottom to me.
Has there ever been a year where sales haven’t risen between March and April?
I hate to agree with Truthiness and Mulliganville, but there had to be a volume bottom somewhere. Somewhere somebody has to buy/sell a property and we are likely at the floor for transaction volume.
Now, give me three months of YOY price increases (not 25% off) and YOY volume increases (not 19% lower) and you’ll have a market bottom. Some neighborhoods ‘only’ have another 20% down to go, others haven’t started yet. Watch headlines for the onslaught of Alt A defaults.
Hey, Relish Brain, your stupid website is quoting a 37% drop in “price” for Newport Beach/92660, but you forgot to show that there’s also a zip with 160% price increase and another with a 38% price increase. It’s either all accurate, or it’s all dog excrement.
Newport Beach 92660 $1,020,000 -37.80%
Newport Beach 92661 $2,700,000 38.50%
Newport Beach 92662 $5,495,000 #N/A
Newport Beach 92663 $2,325,000 160.70%
That’s pretty hysterical, Mr. Vaseline. You will call bottom when you see three months of YOY price increases? Good stuff, good stuff.
That’s a done deal, Alfalfa. The Senate Banking Committee passed it 19-2 with a full Senate vote coming in June.
Refi boom, buying boom, bottoms is here….fresh batch of kool-aid.
Glorious News indeed. a 25% drop clears out a 33% gain…keep it going folks!!! Hell is the inability to communicate with reason…Hell be gone…Glorious I tell you!!
what kind of kool aid is mortgage broker kool aid?
purple or red?
I guess you missed this, Larry.
Hey, Relish Brain, your stupid website is quoting a 37% drop in “price” for Newport Beach/92660, but you forgot to show that there’s also a zip with 160% price increase and another with a 38% price increase. It’s either all accurate, or it’s all dog excrement.
Newport Beach 92660 $1,020,000 -37.80%
Newport Beach 92661 $2,700,000 38.50%
Newport Beach 92662 $5,495,000 #N/A
Newport Beach 92663 $2,325,000 160.70%
What a worthless mish-mash of nothingness that is.
Yeah, I like to post in pairs. It’s a cool internet thing. If you post in singles it’s old school man. Get with the times Thoughtful.
And here is my second message to complete my pair and to blow Thoughtful’s sorry mind.
Ha ha ha ha ha ha. This one is really cutting edge! It’s called a “triplet post”
There are presently 67 homes in Laguna Beach that are either Bank Owned, on their way to auction, or in default.
Here come the Comp Killers to precious Laguna Beach.
Hold it a moment … I thought everyone was RICH in Laguna.
Foreclosure Radar shows 24, with most of those being preforeclosures with very small amounts due. What’s your source?
no, not laguna beach ;-)
24? LOL maybe he is counting NODs, one showed up down the street, too funny for rich people to handle
Go easy on the uber-bears. A string of positive news posts has them spinning like the proverbial Duncan Butterfly Model.
Hang in bad news bears. Lansner has done this before. I predict he will soon hit us with his dreaded spitball of bad news soon. That should perk you up.
VoiceofReason Says: “Hang in bad news bears. Lansner has done this before. I predict he will soon hit us with his dreaded spitball of bad news soon. That should perk you up.”
It looks like even YOU know that the worst is far from over.
Nice try, NODs are in there:
Notice of Default - This is the first notice filed in the foreclosure process and is our starting point. From this document we can find out how far behind the owner currently is in their payments (default amount) at a given date (default date). We also gather whatever information we can about the owner, the property, and the loan the notice pertains to. From here we complete our file by adding additional data.
Though I could make a stronger point by outing some of the individual houses facing foreclosure directly, I don’t think it’s a good idea to do that. I don’t think Jon would like it either.
I will say this; I know of a pod of soon to be Comp Killers at the top of Newport Coast. When they’re inevitably placed back on the market, DOWN GO THE COMPS.
This entire scheme was just that … a unsustainable Ponzi Scheme.
It’s Pay Day!
This is a normal seasonal increase and in no way means anything close to a bottom. Anyone who sees this as anything less is clearly ignorant about how the market volume picks up this time of year. Wait a few months and see what happens.
/
Same thing in Newport Coast, only 6 out of 24 homes were/are being foreclosed upon. The vast majority of the pre-foreclosures are for very small amounts.
I think the comps should be fine, here’s just April’s:
Newport Coast 92657 $3,200,000 +66.2% 18 -50.0%
Hey Poggi,
I sure hope you bought that place in Temecula, from what I hear things are really poppin out there. You may turn out to be an incidental genius.
I know that a few of these are double posted because they have more than 1 loan in default … but the numbers are still expanding every week. I guess Bill Gross was right 20+ years ago when he published his “Plankton” Theory. Oh my, History is repeating itself once again.
Laguna Beach, CA 92651
NOD = 43
Auction = 16
Bank Owned = 8
BTW, the figures above do not include condos and multi-family homes.
Aliso Viejo has 189 loans in the beginning default stage!
Here come the Comp Killers! NO ONE COMMUNITY IN ORANGE COUNTY WILL BE EXCLUDED!
The place I’m hopefully getting is in Murrieta, and I just got a job paying the same amount in Temecula. So now I won’t have to commute to Irvine. I’m getting it for 45% off last years price. So genious may be a bit strong, but I’m pretty happy with the deal I’m getting.
Laguna Niguel is even worse, unfortunately.
OMG, you’ve got to be kidding me?
Laguna Niguel has 207 loans in the default stage, 70 homes facing auction, and 56 Bank Owned properties.
SeekingAlfalfa Says:
Hey Poggi,
“You may turn out to be an incidental genius.”
No doubt.
What your source? BTW, Foreclosure Radar returned two completely different answers when queried on Laguna Beach. The most recent try turned up 86 properties, but many were duplicates. Maybe 65 were not, so using that number one half of one percent are in default for any amount. Another way to say it: 99.5% of homes are not in default.
Aliso Viejo is already at rental parity. Comps killers? I doubt it. More like feeding frenzy.
Comps for Aliso:
Aliso Viejo 92656 $451,500 -1.7% 72 -18.2%
regardless thoughtful, that really should not happen in Laguna Beach or Newport Coast……… those numbers reek of financial chaos……..
AV is a disaster and it’s spreading to LN, they are not quite at rental parity but getting there and my bet is they will both get below rental parity
Wow, Aliso comps at 1.7% off YOY. And 72 of them!
Now hold on a cotton pick’en minute (STOMP-STOMP)!
We have been told by EVERY PermaBull, every local “Real Estate Professional”, every latte drinking bimbo, and every cheap suit wearing carnival barker, that the exclusive areas of Orange County would not be hit by this Ponzi Scheme. Isn’t that right, Gary Watts?
Well, it looks like they’re wrong-o once again!
Isn’t it funny how easy this was to figure out … yet those that drank enough Kool Aid, thought we were the crazy ones. 8)
Meanwhile, I wait to buy my Turtle Rock home for about 50% to 60% less than the peak price.
The bears have huddled together and wisely changed their “spring bounce” talking points to the topic of foreclosures. We shall see what the appetite is. I wonder if the fact that it’s a deep seller’s market for foreclosures will mean anything?
Thoughtful when 40% of homes for sale are distressed, with 2600 NODs now going out a month……… I think it would be foolish not to consider foreclosures in the OC.
Watching “rich” home debtors in Laguna Beach and Newport Cost get an NOD?
priceless
2 points regarding rental parity:
A) Rents are declining for SFH’s in The O.C. I don’t need some local “Market Pro” to tell me it isn’t happening, when I know it is.
B) The cost to buy a home, and service a 30 year fixed, with 20% down, will eventually decline below the rental cost. Just as it did in the mid nineties.
But now is no time to pull the trigger … The O.C. still has significant (perceived) equity to evaporate.
thougtful do you have any pictures/profiles of people who knife caught in the tech bubble
before you hit a bottom you will see many support levels
this may be the bottom……. yeah the bottom of the 4th inning
This is totally off-topic, but we just had our termite inspection and the buyer’s had their inspection at our house a couple days ago. Both inspections went well… a little “too well” if you know what I mean. They both seemed to overlook things that, in my opinion, a 5th grader with a flashlight would find. I think everyone is so eager to close a sale these days. A little too eager. As the seller, I’m sure not going to complain. But, it’s got me a bit concerned as a potential buyer.
For Aliso, there are 41 homes scheduled for the foreclosure at the Santa Ana court house in the next month.
Last month 14 either went back to the bank or were sold.
Don’t worry, the bottom is here! I just want to know how can you see the bottom when you have your head in the sand?
Come on Thoughtful … The greatest housing Bull Market in OC History, has indeed set the table for what I believe may become a once in a lifetime opportunity.
I don’t believe the regulators nor the securities markets will allow this again. In other words, no more (or at least limited) dumb money to people that can’t afford to repay. In the meantime, they’re gonna unload this stuff at record paces. Watch and see.
I love Orange County, and part of me is sad about these events. But there’s nothing we can do to stop it, so you (if you have the means), should get your ducks in order, and be prepared for opportunity.
You know, Lee is a perfect example entitlement run amock. Turtle Rock in Irvine is a very high end enclave in the only hilly part of Irvine. Most people there have long since paid their dues. Lee, the renting graduate student, has targetted this area for his next (first?) home. It will NEVER happen, but it goes to show you just how out of touch and greedy his kind is.
“Don’t worry, the bottom is here! I just want to know how can you see the bottom when you have your head in the sand?”
I believe your side is equally guilty, if not more.
“I believe may become a once in a lifetime opportunity.”
And why would that be if lower values are correct? You must mean Orange County has great potential going forward.
Thoughtful … I’m just trying to help you see the light.
No, my future home in Turtle Rock will not be the first one, NOR the only one. Despite the fact that I’m a “bitter renter”, I’m also a landlord.
A housing speculator? Interesting.
Guess that makes you a perpetrator in your own Ponzi scheme.
Real Estate agents, list your property for free at http://www.propertyintnl.com. No hidden fees or commissions!
And why would that be if lower values are correct?
Because the banks are about to flood the market with Comp Killers.
We are probably never going to see this event play out again. WHY you ask? Because the banks are never going to loan money like this (at least at these levels) again. WS is being hammered by this … they’re never gonna do it again. At least not in our lifetime.
You must mean Orange County has great potential going forward.
After the excesses and imbalances in our economy are blown out, I will be bullish on Orange County. But that can’t happen until we experience a lot of pain. There are simply way too many people pretending to be wealthy in Orange County, and now the music has stopped.
Remember the old saying Warren made popular … it went something like this, “you don’t know who’s wearing a bathing suit, until the tide goes out.”
Thoughtless Says:
I believe your side is equally guilty, if not more.
Hahahahaha… yeah, reverse psychology isn’t going to work. Who has been right about this market for the last three years? Who has been right about the foreclosures? It wasn’t you, Walter Hahn, Gary Watts, Steve Thomas, or any of the other fools out there.
Good luck with your hypocritical positive spin agenda. When the foreclosure you know what storm continues to rage on, having your head in the sand will make it hurt a lot less. It will be just like ignoring the check engine light, once you realize how bad it is, the damage will already be done.
Sales are growing by the minute, it doesn’t require spin.
Thoughtless says: “I believe your side is equally guilty, if not more”
So what your saying is that you’re guilty. Wow. Where did the humble attitude come from? Ha ha ha.
Sales are growing by the minute because value is dropping by the second.
That hard money shylock? That’s rich.
How many tapes, at $1,500 a pop, have you bought from him?
“The Norris Group specializes in real estate education in California with an emphasis on market timing.”
Act now and get all 5 tapes or dvds for the low, low price of $3,997!
[...] Comments Thoughtful on Mid-county’s homebuying slump over?Thoughtful on Mid-county’s homebuying slump over?Thoughtful on Mid-county’s homebuying [...]
As a special bonus, if you order by 3:00 pm, we’ll take a half of a point off your next 12% plus 8 points fee hard money loan!
Don’t be fools! Don’t listen to these false biased reports on OC real estate. We won’t hit bottom for a couple years. Let’s get prices back down to reality… Don’t buy any property until 2009.
Okay, okay, we’ll throw in our newest hot off the presses publication, “First Time Homebuyers, First Time Schomebuyers; Why Getting Yours Sometimes Means Stepping On Others”. Don’t delay, this is a limited time offer!
# Thoughtful Says:
“Turtle Rock in Irvine is a very high end enclave in the only hilly part of Irvine. Most people there have long since paid their dues.”
–
I’m so tired of your constant blather — a couple weeks ago you told us how when you went to UCI Irvine was called by your friends a “cow town.” Turtle rock was there then. I lived there.
It was, and still is, a mile down the road from UCI.
Any chance your going to UCI gave your friends a reason to call it a “cow town?” :)
Another thing, what is this “paid their dues” nonsense?
Those who bought long ago paid what the market price was. Those who bought in the last 3 or four years paid what the market price was.
It appears the latter group paid too much in anticipation of ever increasing prices. These folks have to pay their dues, wouldn’t you say?
Nice try, that was VOR.
Don’t be fools! Don’t listen to these false biased reports on OC real estate. We won’t hit bottom for a couple years. Let’s get prices back down to reality… Don’t buy any property until at least 2009.
VOR/Thoughful…..six of one, half-a-dozen of the other. What’s the difference?
You can put lipstick…………
Anyway, what IS this “paid their dues” nonsense?
don’t you mean by the second? millisecond? nanosecond? wow
“AV is a disaster and it’s spreading to LN, they are not quite at rental parity but getting there and my bet is they will both get below rental parity”
I also wouldn’t be shocked if (when?) this happens. there is no more cheap money.
pdu/rants/mav/multiheaded dragon of doom,
No, no child, it wasn’t me.
Sorry VOR, that was Crystal Balls. I don’t know why, but I frequently confuse you two.
Hard, even for you, to remember “who” you are.
Too funny when even you get yourself confused :)
Again, Thoughful, what IS this “paid their dues” nonsense?
I wish they were paying their dues, that’s part of the problem……………
but in the mean time us bears are going to stomp out the little people who rode the debt train to Newport Coast and Laguna Beach………. LMA
That’s just it: everyone is out for themselves, no matter the consequences. I like this new “keeping it real” behavior. It’s sooooo much better than the falsehoods that we’re usually force-fed here. Bravo!
you should blog about it Thoughtful
Another slow day at the “office”, thought? Nice how yet another 25%+ of the postings here are yours. You think about getting out of the RE business? You should become a writer, you seem to be full of imagination.
Actually, no joke, thought should come up with a blog so we really can see just what type of insight we can glean from him/her. I think it’d be better than the random comments here.
thought should come up with a blog so we really can see just what type of insight we can glean from him/her.
NO!! I didn’t mean that…..danged software screwed up my post.
On second thoughful-thought, if she had her own blog, maybe we’d see fewer of her posts here —-
Hey, true to form she ignores my asking her:
‘…….what IS this “paid their dues” nonsense?”
She’s quick to attack and hopeful that intervening posts cover her blathering BS when asked to explain.
Hey dipsh!t, how about bought at the right time and paid their mortgage and taxes faithfully?
Opps, I meant studies of the average cost to clean up/improve bought REO’s. I have seen some fairly new REO’s that are dumps.
Oh! How deep.
Kind of doing like everyone else, huh?
Seems your comment suggested a special entitlement:
“You know, Lee is a perfect example entitlement run amock. Turtle Rock in Irvine is a very high end enclave in the only hilly part of Irvine. Most people there have long since paid their dues. Lee, the renting graduate student, has targetted this area for his next (first?) home. It will NEVER happen, but it goes to show you just how out of touch and greedy his kind is.”
Still not clear on what their “dues” were. But, since you say it’s what everyone does, I guess it all makes wonderful sense.
no vaseline had this to declare: “Now, give me three months of YOY price increases (not 25% off) and YOY volume increases (not 19% lower) and you’ll have a market bottom.”
I’ll give those to you in June, July, and August of this year - 2008. Thanks for clarifying the bottom for us.
“….but it goes to show you just how out of touch and greedy his kind is.”
Ok, Thoughful, I need to level with you here.
Your comment above, to Lee, is despicable and that is what brought my response.
There is no reason to ridicule Lee’s desire to buy in whatever area he chooses. Maybe he is fully capable of “paying his dues”, and for you to suggest otherwise is detestable.
Makes me wonder who in hell you think you are.
Sigh, he means full price recovery plus appreciation is required for his bottom.
peeuuww, Lee MISSED THE BOAT on Turtle Rock. How is that so hard a concept to grasp? Whole neighborhoods don’t have to turn back in time so that any fool with a measly income can pick and choose where they want to live. Novel idea, huh? I am losing patience with your kind.
Which, by the way, is not a “bottom” at all!
“Makes me wonder who in hell you think you are.”
You know what? Don’t care who you are. Change your name all you want ….. that same ugly person will still be there in the mirror to greet you each day.
Lemme see, let’s top the top and then we’ll have a bottom. Freaking clueless dweebs.
Oh, cry me a river for Lee. He’s every bit the bastard I am.
Ok. I apologize, Lee.
What greets you in the mirror, pdu? You, who stalks anonymous people on the internet each day. You, who never posts anything of substance, but prefers personal attacks?
There seems to be a little uneasiness among the bears today. The picnic basket is empty. LOL
Yogi,
You are being mocked.
Jon Lasner has become a joke in “Money”. I think anything with his name attached should bear the label “advertisement” as he is not in the real world. Real Estate Developers and Real Estate Brokers created a false market with hype, printed by the likes of Jon Lasner and dozens of others. This “hype” drove a market into never-never land. In Orange County, for some reason, the Register felt that it was front page news everytime the home sales escalated. For a generation that seems to think that an MBA is a merit badge of sorts, I found it amusing to actually hear people say things like -” The asking price was $700,500, but we offered them $825,000! When you have idiots like that buying, how can you feel sorry? What ever happened to bargaining? The generations of today are a very sorry lot when it comes to buying anything.
Sighburdood,
“# Sighburrdood Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
no vaseline had this to declare: “Now, give me three months of YOY price increases (not 25% off) and YOY volume increases (not 19% lower) and you’ll have a market bottom.”
I’ll give those to you in June, July, and August of this year - 2008. Thanks for clarifying the bottom for us.
”
What happened to April, May, June??
“Sighburrdood Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 4:00 pm
Beginning pretty much now, and continuing for the rest of the year,
( because of higher conforming loan rates, in addition to the increase in ALL sales activity that has been documented by the Register in the past week.) I predict that the median will actually go UP, and level off at a much higher figure than that of 2 weeks ago.
The same abberation or illusion is true for all of Southern California.
I’ll hereby predict that said higher figure will be announced by the Register in the first week of April. ( And for So Cal, in the Times, a week later.) Time will tell.”
New2OC asked: “What happened to April, May, June??”
Well, June isn’t here yet, but is mentioned above, as in June, July, and August. As for April & May the median has been basically flat. The higher priced sales I expected more of, just took an extra month or two to catch on, but they have now, and the figures will show it - SOON!.
In order to purchase a home, potential homeowners need to be able to afford the payments. Home and condo prices will need to drop further for this to occur. In other words, the home being purchased needs to align with the buyers income level.
It is confusing to me as why so many believe that these homes are now affordable. Yes, they are saving a certain percentage off prices over the last two years. But, buyers need to realize that home prices had reached unrealistic levels.
There are still many overpriced homes on the market, especially homes that have been repossessed by banks. The decline is definitely not yet over.