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Where did April’s surge in home sales come from?
May 19th, 2008, 11:20 am · 33 Comments · posted by Jeff Collins
A DataQuick breakdown of April single-family house sales by price shows that low-priced houses outsold those at the high end of the price spectrum. There were 973 houses that sold for $500,000 or less last month, compared to 712 that sold above $600,000.
The number of houses that sold for $500,000 or less increased 55% last month, up from 629, DataQuick figures show. And the number selling below $400,000 doubled to 549, up from 263 in April 2007.
At the same time, there were 47% fewer houses selling last month above $600,000, down from 1,341 in April 2007.
The DataQuick figures confirm an earlier report by Aliso Viejo Realtor Steve Thomas showing that cheaper homes are selling quicker.
The middle? The number of houses selling for $501,000 to $600,000 decreased 32% in April. Here’s a breakdown of house sales activity by price:
| Slice | Apr-07 | Apr-08 | 08 Vs. ‘07 |
|---|---|---|---|
| <$400,000 | 263 | 549 | 108.7% |
| $400,001-$500,000 | 366 | 424 | 15.8% |
| $500,001-$600,000 | 422 | 286 | -32.2% |
| $600,001-$700,000 | 381 | 194 | -49.1% |
| >$700,000 | 960 | 518 | -46.0% |
May 19th, 2008 at 11:37 am
Here’s the entire Steven Thomas market report, as I posted it a couple of days ago:
http://www.ouragentspot.com/sthomas/MarketTime-May-15-08.pdf
This link includes graphs & charts.
Thomas is doing this report every two or three weeks and has been SPOT ON, so far this year. NO one else have such an extensive report that focuses strictly on Orange County. Case/Schiller isn’t even close to relevant with their “Southern California metropolitan area report - one of 20 national areas that they’re “reporting” on
For the idiots who claim that Thomas is making this stuff up, look and the charts and graphs - they are extensive, complete, and accurate.
A few bozos here have attempted to ridicule, or minimalize these reports. Until they come up with something better, something more extensive, AND something MORE relevant, they should probably shut their stupid traps. ( The old saying applies: It is far better to keep your mouth shut, and keep people wondering if you’re really stupid, than to open your mouth and prove it to them.)
Have a great week.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:47 am
The surge is not just here. It’s not even just in California. Psychology has finely turned the corner and that can’t be underestimated. The super sweet jumbo money will also soon send these medians much higher - which will give an even bigger boost to people’s perceptions. These nuggets will create a positve feedback loop. Not good news if you’re not prepared.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:48 am
thanks steve- I mean sighburrealterd- looks like those
sub 500 reo’s are selling like hot cakes– this is
a knifecatchers dream lloolll @ribsplitter deluxe
May 19th, 2008 at 11:49 am
What’s the old saying … “A picture says a thousand words”.
One gets that impression when you look at this chart.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:50 am
DEAD CAT BOUNCE. Prices went up for a bit in 1991 before declining the NEXT 5 YEARS.
DEAD CAT BOUNCE. Prices went up for a bit in 1991 before declining the NEXT 5 YEARS.
DEAD CAT BOUNCE. Prices went up for a bit in 1991 before declining the NEXT 5 YEARS.
DEAD CAT BOUNCE. Prices went up for a bit in 1991 before declining the NEXT 5 YEARS.
DEAD CAT BOUNCE. Prices went up for a bit in 1991 before declining the NEXT 5 YEARS.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:53 am
here sighburterdbrain check this out…
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/
May 19th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
Exactly why would anyone trust some RE Agent whose livelihood depends on those numbers being favorable? Though I guess if there weren’t opposing views, news would be pretty boring, wouldn’t it? It just so happens that the lone voices of opposition usually end up being proven wrong/stupid.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
Jon,
Thanks for clearing that up.
The only homes moving are the gutter homes.
Anything above $500,000 is selling at numbers much worse than last year.
This shows a pretty good picture of where the median price needs to be
Around $300,000 to $400,000
I hope all you realtors are taking note!
May 19th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
The “real estate agent” you are trying to slam has been proven right by an unimpeachable source: the county recorder.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:09 pm
The number over $700,000 and the number under $400,000 are neck and neck.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:12 pm
Neck and neck? Yes they are. This is all part of the BIG TIME real estate boom we are now experiencing on OC! Ha ha ha.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
Only a blind person would compare $400,000 up 108% to $700,000 down 46%
If you look at the percentages of $700,000’s sold this year it becomes obvious that the $700,000’s is under so much stress it will continue to fall drastically until reasonable sales numbers can return.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
The seminar bloggers are in full damage control mode. They can’t email new talking points out fast enough to keep up with the news. Ease off Jon you’re going to make one of them pass out from exasperation.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
And at the same time there is fresh data today showing the big rise in both foreclosures and NOD’s in the 700K+ markets all over the county. A literal tsunami of Comp Killers is washing in to every area from Talega to Brea through this summer and into fall.
It’s going to get worse before it gets better.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
Jon shows us that only ½ the amount of homes priced at $700,000 sold in April from last year and if you remember, last April was a down month.
You and a herd of realtors cannot come up with enough damage control needed to cover up these horrific numbers.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
The bear sweat is pouring from their foreheads as they feverishly pound out spun numbers in an effort to keep from losing control.
May 19th, 2008 at 1:00 pm
SeekingAlfalfa: Why is it sometimes I feel like I’m reading the script of an amateur writer waxing dramatic.
May 19th, 2008 at 1:12 pm
Wow!!! The only houses that are selling are under 500K.
That is going to push the median price even lower.
Can you picture the headlines in the media: “Median home prices down 25% from last year”
We all know that most buyers only pay attention to the median price.
It’s unfair but that is going to make any potential buyers out there very uneasy.
May 19th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
this is what happens when homes that used to sell for $600K are now selling in the $400sK
May 19th, 2008 at 1:21 pm
It was a dark and stormy night. The bears huddled around a single flickering candle. Their faces long with despair as they read the news.
May 19th, 2008 at 2:18 pm
From the full dataquick report for all of SoCal;
“Although last month’s sales total was the highest for any month since August 2007, when 17,755 homes sold, it was still the weakest April since April 1995, when 15,303 homes sold, and the second-lowest April on record (since 1988). Last month was 38 percent below of the April average of 25,311 sales.
Post-foreclosure homes continued to play a major role in the Southland market. Of all the homes that resold in April, 37.5 percent had been foreclosed on at some point in the prior 12 months, compared with a revised 35.8 percent in March and 4.6 percent a year ago. Across the six-county area, “foreclosure resales” ranged from 26.9 percent of resale activity in Orange County to 52.7 percent in Riverside County.”
Yep, call that realtor quickly, you better buy before prices start rising again! That flickering candle is just about to go out!! Hurry up and you can begin enjoying the Orange County lifestyle today!! Prices will never be this low again!
May 19th, 2008 at 2:26 pm
NationalBooble had this to blurb: “The ONLY houses that are selling are under 500K.”
You need to ditch your abacus for a calculator, NB.
Sales under $500k = 973, sales more than $500k = 998.
Also, in case this concept eludes you, housing prices are like a form of pyramid, where there are VAST numbers of less expensive houses at the base, with ever fewer numbers as you move up the pricing food chain.
Maybe you should start a new website complaining about gas prices, as your real estate bubble site is becoming obsolete right before our eyes.
May 19th, 2008 at 2:27 pm
BradyTheCat reiterated this PROFOUND truth: “Prices will never be this low again!”
AMEN, CatMan.
May 19th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
“The middle? The number of houses selling for $501,000 to $600,000 decreased 32% in April. ”
gee, maybe because they’re 100,000 - 150,000 overpriced…
May 19th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
# Sighburrdood Says: “Maybe you should start a new website complaining about gas prices, as your real estate bubble site is becoming obsolete right before our eyes.”
and maybe you should get out of the house more often instead of spending the whole day trying to convince people. At your age, you should enjoy every single day like it is the last one.
May 19th, 2008 at 3:20 pm
Bubbs, no need to go after Sigh and his age…remember, respect your elders as they can teach you a good bit about this life.
May 19th, 2008 at 3:32 pm
nbsp;gasbuddy.com
May 19th, 2008 at 3:34 pm
Another Jump in California Foreclosure Activity
April 22, 2008
La Jolla, CA.–The number of California homes going into foreclosure jumped last quarter to its highest level in more than 15 years, as the market continued to works its way through declining home values and a pool of at-risk mortgages that were originated in 2005 and 2006, a real estate information service reported.
Lending institutions sent homeowners 113,676 default notices during the January-to-March period. That was up by 39.4 percent from 81,550 the previous quarter, and up 143.1 percent from 46,760 for first-quarter 2007, according to DataQuick Information Systems.
Last quarter’s number of defaults was the highest in DataQuick’s statistics, which go back to 1992.
“The main factor behind this foreclosure surge remains the decline in home values. Additionally, a lot of the ‘loans-gone-wild’ activity happened in late 2005 and 2006 and that’s working its way through the system. The big ‘if’ right now is whether or not the economy is in recession. If it is, the foreclosure problem could spread beyond the current categories of dicey mortgages, and into mainstream home loans,” said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick’s president.
Most of the loans that went into default last quarter were originated between August 2005 and October 2006. The median age was 23 months, up from 16 months a year earlier.
On primary mortgages, California homeowners were a median five months behind on their payments when the lender started the default process. The borrowers owed a median $11,474 on a median $346,750 mortgage.
On home equity loans and lines of credit, homeowners were a median eight months behind on their payments. Borrowers owed a median $3,512 on a median $60,000 credit line. However the amount of the credit line that was actually in use cannot be determined from public records.
DataQuick, a subsidiary of Vancouver-based MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates, monitors real estate activity nationwide and provides information to consumers, educational institutions, public agencies, lending institutions, title companies and industry analysts. Notices of Default are recorded at county recorders offices and mark the first step of the formal foreclosure process.
Although 113,676 default notices were filed last quarter, they pertained to 110,392 homes. The difference is the result of some borrowers defaulting on multiple loans (e.g. a primary mortgage and a line of credit).
Last quarter’s default numbers were a record in almost all of the state’s 58 counties. The notable exception being Los Angeles County, which was particularly hard hit by the recession of the early 1990s. During last quarter, the county’s 20,339 defaults represented 94.8 percent of its peak quarter back in Q1 of 1996, which saw 21,444 defaults.
On a loan-by-loan basis, mortgages were least likely to go into default in San Francisco, Marin, and San Mateo counties. The likelihood was highest in Merced, San Joaquin and Stanislaus counties.
Of the homeowners in default, an estimated 32 percent emerge from the foreclosure process by bringing their payments current, refinancing, or selling the home and paying off what they owe. A year ago it was about 52 percent. The increased portion of homes lost to foreclosure reflects the slow real estate market, as well as the number of homes bought during the height of the market with multiple-loan financing, which makes ‘work-outs’ difficult.
Multiple-loan financing peaked in Q4 of 2006 at 60.9 percent of all financed home purchases. Last quarter it was 15.9 percent.
Trustees Deeds recorded, or the actual loss of a home to foreclosure, totaled 47,171 during the first quarter. That’s the highest since DataQuick began tracking Trustees Deeds in 1988. Last quarter’s total rose 48.9 percent from 31,676 in the previous quarter, and jumped 327.6 percent from 11,032 in first quarter 2007. In the last real estate cycle, Trustees Deeds peaked at 15,418 in third-quarter 1996. The all-time low was 637 in the second quarter of 2005.
There are 7.9 million houses and condos in the state, DataQuick reported.
Foreclosure resales have emerged as a significant market factor, accounting for 33.1 percent of all California resale activity last quarter. A year ago it was 3.2 percent. Foreclosure resales vary significantly by area, from 5.1 percent in San Francisco County to 66.7 percent in San Joaquin County.
Notices of Default
houses and condos
County/Region 2007Q1 2008Q1 Yr/Yr%
Los Angeles 8,843 20,339 130.0%
Orange 2,644 7,082 167.9%
San Diego 3,931 8,975 128.3%
Riverside 5,750 15,022 161.3%
San Bernardino 4,357 11,149 155.9%
Ventura 965 2,176 125.5%
Imperial 258 566 119.4%
SoCal 26,748 65,309 144.2%
San Francisco 216 420 94.4%
Alameda 1,578 3,194 102.4%
Contra Costa 1,969 4,718 139.6%
Santa Clara 1,058 3,074 190.5%
San Mateo 382 911 138.5%
Marin 118 314 166.1%
Solano 914 2,091 128.8%
Sonoma 407 1,392 242.0%
Napa 88 284 222.7%
Bay Area 6,730 16,398 143.7%
Santa Cruz 171 447 161.4%
Santa Barbara 372 897 141.1%
San Luis Obispo 181 385 112.7%
Monterey 458 1,468 220.5%
Coast 1,182 3,197 170.5%
Sacramento 3,234 6,898 113.3%
San Joaquin 1,721 4,657 170.6%
Placer 518 1,031 99.0%
Kern 1,297 3,211 147.6%
Fresno 1,116 2,464 120.8%
Madera 184 523 184.2%
Merced 511 1,759 244.2%
Tulare 436 947 117.2%
Yolo 197 488 147.7%
El Dorado 219 394 79.9%
Stanislaus 1,141 3,192 179.8%
Kings 88 182 106.8%
San Benito 107 272 154.2%
Yuba 151 357 136.4%
Colusa 20 81 305.0%
Sutter 114 337 195.6%
Central Valley 11,054 26,793 142.4%
Mountains* 291 588 102.1%
North Calif* 755 1,391 84.2%
Statewide 46,760 113,676 143.1%
May 19th, 2008 at 3:36 pm
And they’ll get snapped up in 1 month too.
May 19th, 2008 at 3:39 pm
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNPV7.eDO.2Y&refer=home
Dodd, Shelby Reach Agreement on Anti-Foreclosure Bill
May 19th, 2008 at 5:34 pm
Just as unsophisticated low end buyers were the last to buy at the top of the mania, they will now be the knife catchers. Que lastima.
May 19th, 2008 at 5:45 pm
those are just outright horrific numbers. even more so if you consider the increased foreclosure activity.
the paid bulls on here set themselves up for a big fall… all this talk about how the only areas that mattered were the better zips on the coast. those areas are getting killed and looking worse as we go (but of course they will now say all the low-end buying is great and will forget all their previous comments)
May 19th, 2008 at 10:11 pm
Excellent analysis. Thanks, Jon.