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O.C. monthly home sales crack 2,000 for 1st time since credit crunch
May 19th, 2008, 8:47 am · 32 Comments · posted by Jeff Collins
The spring surge in sales continued to erase the impact of the last summer’s credit crunch in the Orange County housing market, DataQuick Information Systems reported today.
Sales totaled 2,166 in April, the first time sales were above 2,000 homes a month since the market-thrashing liquidity crisis — caused by investors shunning mortgage securities sold on Wall Street, thus drying up home-loan funding.
Homebuying in April, by DataQuick’s math, hit its 31st consecutive month where sales failed to beat the year-ago level. History shows us that last month’s buying was 19% below a year ago and 46% below the average April since 1988.
Year-to-date, O.C. homebuying is -57% vs. the 20-year average actvity.
Here’s a look at O.C. homebuying, since ‘88, showing monthly sales totals for 2007 and 2008 so far and how they compare to the 20-year monthly average for that month …
| Month | ‘88-’07 avg. | 2007 | 2008 | ‘08 vs. avg. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 2,737 | 2,400 | 1,286 | -53.0% |
| February | 2,838 | 2,449 | 1,471 | -48.2% |
| March | 4,078 | 3,130 | 1,663 | -59.2% |
| April | 4,017 | 2,682 | 2,166 | -46.1% |
| May | 4,198 | 2,675 | ||
| June | 4,531 | 2,641 | ||
| July | 4,137 | 2,391 | ||
| August | 4,362 | 2,285 | ||
| September | 3,894 | 1,643 | ||
| October | 3,724 | 1,700 | ||
| November | 3,430 | 1,567 | ||
| December | 3,920 | 1,731 | ||
| Average | 3,822 | 2,275 | 1,647 | -56.9% |
May 19th, 2008 at 8:57 am
“The spring surge in sales continued to erase the impact of the last summer’s credit crunch in the Orange County housing market, DataQuick Information Systems reported today.”
This will only get better.
May 19th, 2008 at 8:58 am
Per DataQuick, Single Family Median Home Price:
2006 ~ Monthly
$690,000 = Feb ~ Watts forecast 15% for SFH
$695,000 = Mar
$705,000 = Apr
$705,000 = May
$700,000 = Jun
$699,000 = Jul ~ Watts revises forecast to 11%
$685,000 = Aug
$680,000 = Sep
$665,000 = Oct
$660,000 = Nov
$665,000 = Dec
2007 ~ Monthly
$675,000 = Jan ~ Watts forecast 7% SFH
$675,000 = Feb
$695,000 = Mar
$720,000 = Apr ~ New Century Bankruptcy
$695,000 = May
$734,000 = Jun ~ Peak of O.C. Housing Bubble
$718,000 = Jul
$710,000 = Aug
$655,000 = Sep
$650,000 = Oct
$655,000 = Nov
$600,000 = Dec
2008 ~ Weekly ~ Monthly
$600,000 = 01/07 ~ Watts “Pent up Demand”
$595,000 = 01/15
$595,000 = 01/23
$583,250 = Jan
$585,000 = 02/07
$575,000 = 02/13
$575,000 = 02/22
$575.000 = Feb
$580,000 = 03/07
$575,000 = 03/14
$567,000 = 03/20
$570,000 = 03/26
$570,000 = Mar
$553,750 = 04/08
$565,000 = 04/14
$563,000 = 04/22
$550,000 = 04/28
$555,000 = Apr ~ A $15,000 loss in the April Median
Per DataQuick, this loss represents a $179,000 decline in single family home prices from the June 2007 high. And the beat goes on … and on … and on!
May 19th, 2008 at 8:58 am
Oh, I see that activity is still lower than April 07 which was already really slow.
Also, it would be interesting to see home prices change since April 07
That would give us a better idea of the magnitude of the crash.
May 19th, 2008 at 9:00 am
Just out of curiosity does anybody have a record of when sales volumes bottomed in the early 90’s, also does anybody have data of what sales volumes were in the early 90’s during the bottom compared to today? It is my understanding these levels of sales are far more severe that they were in the 90’s especially when adjusted for population. Point being home prices fell all they way into 1996. It would be interesting to look at that data from those years.
May 19th, 2008 at 9:02 am
Thanks Lee for posting that. This confirms what I’ve been seeing all over Orange County. Lower prices everywhere. It looks like home prices will keep coming down to attract the reduced pool of potential buyers. Buyers nowadays are addicted to low prices.
Good for them but bad for current homeowners.
May 19th, 2008 at 9:05 am
516 fewer sales than last April
“A bottom here, a bottom there!” LoL
Gosh I love this! It feels so good to be right-o!
May 19th, 2008 at 9:31 am
Sorry lee, these deals were made in February. There are many more to come. We now have convincing proof that all those pendings are real.
May 19th, 2008 at 9:39 am
Love to wake up to good news…
Who on earth would buy right now with a median drop of 15k in a month? And that’s during the PEAK time of year. Yikes!
May 19th, 2008 at 9:40 am
IT’S OVER! The housing crash is over! Happy days are here again. Bottom January 2008 just like Thoughtless says!
May 19th, 2008 at 9:45 am
Actually, my March 24th prediction is humming along just fine!
May 19th, 2008 at 10:00 am
Hey, how many of you blogers actually have properties on the market right now in OC. I just listed my house and got 11 showings in 48 Hrs., one prospect came back to look twice. I will be in escrow within 30 days at a price point close to year ago levels.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:07 am
Just sold my house without even trying…a guy was camping out on my street everyday for months just to have first crack at buying. I even listed it a 2006 levels and then added that the buyer needed to keep the green walls and tend my dead mothers over grown garden. Also, he wrote a lovely letter telling me how much he appreciated the opportunity to live in my home.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:13 am
Hey folks,
Take a look at this on cnbc.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=746618747&play=1
May 19th, 2008 at 10:23 am
jsquid:
i have a friend who try to buy this home in fountain valley.
asking price 590k.
the owner got 13 offers in 1 week.
my friend decided to offer the full asking price 590k.
she just moved in last week.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:29 am
Someone last month introduced a website that is monitoring parts of Irvine and Tustin. Take a fresh look at what is going into escrow. Be warned, bears, that you should be sitting down first.
http://www.ipoplaya.com/
May 19th, 2008 at 10:34 am
hey Truthi,
if you have any other knife catcher friends, maybe you can show them this home to see if we can find a sucker to buy this home.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Fountain-Valley/18486-Tamarind-St-92708/home/3822751
This poor loser has lowered the price 4 time and he still can’t sell it after 193 days on the market. He paid 710K for this in 2005 (ouch!!!)
No 13 offers here, that’s for sure. LOL
May 19th, 2008 at 10:37 am
national bubble.
i look at the link. that property is located right next to ellis. the noise and pollution will be a problem for me. i will not consider this home.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:40 am
Of course sales are up, since prices are down
May 19th, 2008 at 10:41 am
i am not too crazy about the swimming pool either.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:43 am
ok Truthi, maybe this one.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Fountain-Valley/9415-El-Blanco-Ave-92708/home/3852627
Look at this, the moron paid 800K in 2006.
It does not look like a sellers market, does it?
or maybe this one
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Fountain-Valley/17171-Santa-Rita-St-92708/home/3857303
Maybe you can pick one of these up so a year from now, you too will be upside down. Welcome to the club.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:44 am
Did nobody else notice that the amount of sales in April were about 46% below the average (1988-2007). That’s a historically awful month. Compared to March, an even more historically awful month, it does look positive. We will see what the May data brings.
And you guys should also read Mortgage Insider…record number of foreclosures last month. Unbelievable.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:47 am
national bubble,
one has a swimming pool. the other is 2 storied. i don’t care much for stair after a long day at the hospital.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:54 am
Hey bubble, let’s talk about what’s really in escrow. You know, houses in good areas that aren’t under power lines. You can’t handle the truth:
http://www.ipoplaya.com/
May 19th, 2008 at 11:21 am
I looked at that website. Don’t get too excited. You don’t know what the terms of their agreement are. I also technically sold my house for more than asking. Anyone looking at the records would see that in black and white. However, what you don’t see at first glance is that I have to kick back 6% to the buyer to cover their down and closing costs, which actually brings the sale price to about 5% below asking All that glitters is not gold.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:27 am
The point is lost.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:33 am
national.. thank god for the dick armeys of the world
who actually have a brain and common sense unlike
thoughtless and her clueless narrow minded selfish
ilk…
yeah those buyers are starting to camp out in droves
on the lawns of every house thats for sale in orange
county lloollll @ribsplitter no bailout for idiots and
greed mongers let the market correct the prices like it
should
hey blogger shouldnt the real headline read
PRICES DOWN 20% IN ONE MEASLY YEAR
May 19th, 2008 at 11:34 am
Last year, total sales from March to April actually dropped. This year, the trend is reversed. I call that an improvement. Deal with it.
May 19th, 2008 at 11:42 am
Here’s the Steven Thomas market report, as I posted it a couple of days ago:
http://www.ouragentspot.com/sthomas/MarketTime-May-15-08.pdf
This link includes graphs & charts.
Thomas is doing this report every two or three weeks and has been SPOT ON, so far this year. NO one else have such an extensive report that focuses strictly on Orange County. Case/Schiller isn’t even close to relevant with their “Southern California metropolitan area report - one of 20 national areas that they’re “reporting” on
For the idiots who claim that Thomas is making this stuff up, look and the charts and graphs - they are extensive, complete, and accurate.
A few bozos here have attempted to ridicule, or minimalize these reports. Until they come up with something better, something more extensive, AND something MORE relevant, they should probably shut their stupid traps. ( The old saying applies: It is far better to keep your mouth shut, and keep people wondering if you’re really stupid, than to open your mouth and prove it to them.)
Have a great week.
May 19th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
[…] O.C. home sales above 2,000 for first time since credit crunch […]
May 19th, 2008 at 8:16 pm
This is only the beginning of housing market in Orange County and Southern California since March 2008. More toxic ARM loans reset toward the end of 2008. Foreclosure is the only best option.
There are not many qualified Buyers left in this market. Half a million dollar median house in Orange County is out of reach. Unemployment is up. Gas and Food prices are up. Taxes and Fees are high. It is going to be a long hard year ahead.
Investors and House Flippers simply walking away. Greed will pay the price at the expense of taxpayers.
No Bailout.
May 19th, 2008 at 10:35 pm
Carlos had this uplifting information to share: “This is only the beginning of housing market in Orange County and Southern California since March 2008. More toxic ARM loans reset toward the end of 2008. Foreclosure is the only best option.
There are not many qualified Buyers left in this market. Half a million dollar median house in Orange County is out of reach. Unemployment is up. Gas and Food prices are up. Taxes and Fees are high. It is going to be a long hard year ahead.
Investors and House Flippers simply walking away. Greed will pay the price at the expense of taxpayers.
No Bailout.” ( End of statement.)
Man! You must have taken a couple of heavy tokes off NationalBubble’s Negative Bubble Bong.
Lighten up, Carlos, it really isn’t as doom & gloom as National’s website makes it out to be. Go read the funnies, guy.
May 23rd, 2008 at 10:11 am
[…] O.C. homes seen as 25% less unaffordableO.C. home affordability jumps in 2008’s first quarterO.C. monthly home sales crack 2,000 for 1st time since credit crunchShaky credit no big problem for SoCal rental applicantsO.C. homebuying near 8-month high in late […]