Here's recent history of the Fed’s policy committee and its Fed Funds rate. Next Fed decision is June 24/25.
Homebuying surge reaches 20 O.C. ZIPs
May 19th, 2008, 12:00 pm · 63 Comments · posted by Jon Lansner/O.C. Register columnist
One sign of an improving O.C. housing market is that DataQuick’s homebuying math shows in April 20 of 83 ZIP codes enjoying more sales this year vs. a year ago. While that is still a slim slice, ponder March when just two ZIPs had sales gains on a year-over-year basis. (See the entire ZIP chart for April HERE!)
Here’s what you need to know about the latest home sales data …
• DataQuick says shoppers completed home deals at the fastest pace since July. CLICK HERE!
• And it could continue: Steve Thomas of Re/Max’s data on home deals in escrow suggests the homebuying surge will continues. CLICK HERE!
… so what’s up?
• Not prices! By DataQuick’s math, home prices are at lows last seen since March ‘04. CLICK HERE!
• And last month, cheaper homes were the hot sellers. CLICK HERE!
… but it’s not all rosy!
• DataQuick says foreclosures continue to surge. CLICK HERE!
• As Thomas’ data shows distressed properties making up 36% of all O.C. homes for sale. CLICK HERE!
… what does it mean?
• You tell us! Do you think the O.C. market has hit the bottom? VOTE HERE!
May 19th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
PermaBull Lansner, Go man Go!!!!
May 19th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
I guess it means the market is distressed due to an increase in foreclosures and prices are falling to levels of traditional affordability in some areas which is actually increasing sales. The areas that are overpriced are not moving. This is good news to people on the sidelines. Home prices are falling and falling fast!
May 19th, 2008 at 12:34 pm
The zipcode chart is missing.
May 19th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
“DataQuick says shoppers completed home deals at the fastest pace since July.”
Come on Jon. You are comparing April’s sales to one of the worst month in sales since they started keeping records. Of course sales volume has to be a bit better. Did you expect sales to go to 0?
“And it could continue: Steve Thomas of Re/Max’s data on home deals in escrow suggests the homebuying surge will continues. ”
Since when do we believe a Realtor? Haven’t we learned anything from the past 2 years. They’ll do or say anything to get people interested in buying real estate.
May 19th, 2008 at 1:12 pm
Comparing today’s “surge” to a year ago isn’t saying much.
May 19th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
# SoCal78 Says:”Comparing today’s “surge” to a year ago isn’t saying much.”
True.
Now, this statement is a lot more meaningful.
“Year-to-date, O.C. home buying is -57% vs. the 20-year average activity.”
Not much of a “surge”, ah?
May 19th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
What does it mean?…….The low-end was the first to decline, so it is now the first to recover, simple as that…..
The bargains are now gone Bulls. Watch for the summer when the bidding wars will start up again.
The window was much smaller this time compared to the 90’s, mainly because the prices declined during a much shorter time frame.
May 19th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
My My, have things changed. The OC Register used to be overwhelmed with mortgage co’s and homebuilders advertisements. Now we get the Foreclosure Bus advertisement … wanna take a ride 8)?
http://www.fraziergrouprealty.com/Nav.aspx/Page=/PageManager/Default.aspx/PageID=2079707
May 19th, 2008 at 1:23 pm
Let me state the obvious: No one is saying the housing market is all good. But it is improving in some ways from where it was a year ago.
And Bubble, surely you see the irony of you saying not to believe someone who pushes a completely one-sided argument.
May 19th, 2008 at 1:25 pm
It really says a lot about how out of touch these bubbleheads are that they are still harping on April being off historically. We have known for weeks that volume is fast approaching 2006 levels and once again Steve Thomas will be vindicated. Their denying this freight train of activity is laugh out loud funny. They have NO CREDIBILITY. NONE.
May 19th, 2008 at 1:28 pm
Hey you SOB … How can you say the current window is “much smaller this time compared to the 90’s”? The current “window” is still wide open.
May 19th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
Sick of Bears you are so right. What took 60 months or better in the 90’s has taken only 36 months to accomplish this time around. It’s like I said, this is a whole new ball game.
May 19th, 2008 at 1:35 pm
Am I the only one who can’t see the zip chart?
May 19th, 2008 at 1:45 pm
# SeekingAlfalfa Says: “Sick of Bears you are so right. What took 60 months or better in the 90’s has taken only 36 months to accomplish this time around. It’s like I said, this is a whole new ball game.”
I’m glad to see you are admitting that prices have come down drastically.
BTW, I only see some sales in the market under 500K. That must be great for you people who like to live inland with all the pollution but I don’t see any home selling in the only desirable areas in Orange County (NB, CDM, NC, Laguna Beach).
In fact, it now takes 17 months to sell in Newport Beach.
So you permabulls keep buying property inland (ie Sighburdood). I’ll stay nice and cool by the beach.
May 19th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
Ok National Bubbie,
So does that mean prices will go back up drastically? Drastic is a relative term. 15% down from a 160% increase? It depends when and where you bought. I think everyone you call a perma bull fully expected the normal cycle to occur. But I think what most of us found objectionable was the seething anger and hatred toward anyone who disagreed with your overly dire prognostications of a complete collapse of prices by 50% or more. So now that I have admitted that housing prices have fallen somewhat will you admitt you’re somewhat of a weenie?
May 19th, 2008 at 2:22 pm
What is surprising here?
I had predicted in last December (and few more times this year) that sometime in 08, RE market will stop registering further YOY lows.
We are in the third year of slowdown. Sales volume has slowed to all time low. Only way if can go is up.
None of this means prices will go up.
Southern California bottom is still one and half year away per Economy.com of Moody’s.
So perma bulls, chill out. Before you open champgane bottles, there is a lot of rough road ahead.
One of my friends, who is a RE investor and has few income properties and 4 investment houses in OC uses a simple tool. In 90’s he used number of foreclosures as the key barometer. Once foreclosures started going down, he started buying.
Per this report, foreclosures are still surging and my investor friend says, this is not the time to buy.
May 19th, 2008 at 2:24 pm
“Somewhat” of a weenie? The only way bubble could be more of a weenie is if his hair was made of sauerkraut. And there is NO SUCH THING as “prices”. There are today’s comps, which have some influence, and there are tomorrow’s comps, which could be anything.
May 19th, 2008 at 2:25 pm
How dare you Hiflyer. Let the bulls enjoy their party today
May 19th, 2008 at 2:28 pm
Were foreclosures heavily weighted in three cities last time?
May 19th, 2008 at 2:29 pm
Paul Hodgins Says:
May 19th, 2008 at 9:40 am
Dear G:
I value, encourage and cherish contrarian opinions, as long as they’re well-reasoned and backed up by some facts. If you were to support your contention that the recent fee increases at Cal State aren’t such a bad thing, and back up your point with, for example, comparative statistics showing that other university systems have levied steep fee increases without adversely affecting enrollment rates, then that would be a constructive and fascinating contrarian argument (not so contrarian, really – some of my colleagues at Cal State also feel that the fee increases aren’t such a big deal). But a diatribe filled with off-the-subject insults isn’t an argument – it’s a rant. I enjoy nothing more than getting a good, meaty, fair and on-point debate going in my classes – defending your opinion, and listening to someone with a brain who doesn’t agree with you, is the essence of a well-rounded education. Show me you’re intelligent as well as opinionated, G, and I’ll let you into the debate.
May 19th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
SeekingAlfalfa Says: “15% down from a 160% increase?”
You know very well that the correction has been of at least 20% from the peak in most of OC. In many areas (Santa Ana, Garbage Grove, Anaheim) the correction has been of more than 50% in some cases.
Most experts (I’m obviously not an expert) expect an increase of sales in the next few months with more price declines so everything your buddy Steve Thomas says seems to agree with what many experts believe. So, it is reasonable to expect home prices to go down another 10-15% in the next year before the market stabilizes.
May 19th, 2008 at 2:38 pm
“Were foreclosures heavily weighted in three cities last time?”
I guess that depends on your definition of heavily weighted. But yes Santa Ana, Anaheim and Lake Forest all experienced high levels of foreclosures last time. RSM had a lot of foreclosures in the mid 90s as well. This is from the OCR - the charts with the exact numbers unfortunately don’t make it to the database I see.
May 19th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
Obviously you’re not an expert sauerkraut hair (I’m still laughing over that one, thanks Thoughtful)
May 19th, 2008 at 3:23 pm
The true significance of April’s numbers is the previous 7 months, sales were below 2000 in volume. If volume continues to increase in May, that would be the beginning of the volume uptick which would be the first sign that recovery is happening with respect to volume. Volume takes care of prices in due time.
May 19th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
Another Jump in California Foreclosure Activity
April 22, 2008
La Jolla, CA.–The number of California homes going into foreclosure jumped last quarter to its highest level in more than 15 years, as the market continued to works its way through declining home values and a pool of at-risk mortgages that were originated in 2005 and 2006, a real estate information service reported.
Lending institutions sent homeowners 113,676 default notices during the January-to-March period. That was up by 39.4 percent from 81,550 the previous quarter, and up 143.1 percent from 46,760 for first-quarter 2007, according to DataQuick Information Systems.
Last quarter’s number of defaults was the highest in DataQuick’s statistics, which go back to 1992.
“The main factor behind this foreclosure surge remains the decline in home values. Additionally, a lot of the ‘loans-gone-wild’ activity happened in late 2005 and 2006 and that’s working its way through the system. The big ‘if’ right now is whether or not the economy is in recession. If it is, the foreclosure problem could spread beyond the current categories of dicey mortgages, and into mainstream home loans,” said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick’s president.
Most of the loans that went into default last quarter were originated between August 2005 and October 2006. The median age was 23 months, up from 16 months a year earlier.
On primary mortgages, California homeowners were a median five months behind on their payments when the lender started the default process. The borrowers owed a median $11,474 on a median $346,750 mortgage.
On home equity loans and lines of credit, homeowners were a median eight months behind on their payments. Borrowers owed a median $3,512 on a median $60,000 credit line. However the amount of the credit line that was actually in use cannot be determined from public records.
DataQuick, a subsidiary of Vancouver-based MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates, monitors real estate activity nationwide and provides information to consumers, educational institutions, public agencies, lending institutions, title companies and industry analysts. Notices of Default are recorded at county recorders offices and mark the first step of the formal foreclosure process.
Although 113,676 default notices were filed last quarter, they pertained to 110,392 homes. The difference is the result of some borrowers defaulting on multiple loans (e.g. a primary mortgage and a line of credit).
Last quarter’s default numbers were a record in almost all of the state’s 58 counties. The notable exception being Los Angeles County, which was particularly hard hit by the recession of the early 1990s. During last quarter, the county’s 20,339 defaults represented 94.8 percent of its peak quarter back in Q1 of 1996, which saw 21,444 defaults.
On a loan-by-loan basis, mortgages were least likely to go into default in San Francisco, Marin, and San Mateo counties. The likelihood was highest in Merced, San Joaquin and Stanislaus counties.
Of the homeowners in default, an estimated 32 percent emerge from the foreclosure process by bringing their payments current, refinancing, or selling the home and paying off what they owe. A year ago it was about 52 percent. The increased portion of homes lost to foreclosure reflects the slow real estate market, as well as the number of homes bought during the height of the market with multiple-loan financing, which makes ‘work-outs’ difficult.
Multiple-loan financing peaked in Q4 of 2006 at 60.9 percent of all financed home purchases. Last quarter it was 15.9 percent.
Trustees Deeds recorded, or the actual loss of a home to foreclosure, totaled 47,171 during the first quarter. That’s the highest since DataQuick began tracking Trustees Deeds in 1988. Last quarter’s total rose 48.9 percent from 31,676 in the previous quarter, and jumped 327.6 percent from 11,032 in first quarter 2007. In the last real estate cycle, Trustees Deeds peaked at 15,418 in third-quarter 1996. The all-time low was 637 in the second quarter of 2005.
There are 7.9 million houses and condos in the state, DataQuick reported.
Foreclosure resales have emerged as a significant market factor, accounting for 33.1 percent of all California resale activity last quarter. A year ago it was 3.2 percent. Foreclosure resales vary significantly by area, from 5.1 percent in San Francisco County to 66.7 percent in San Joaquin County.
Notices of Default
houses and condos
County/Region 2007Q1 2008Q1 Yr/Yr%
Los Angeles 8,843 20,339 130.0%
Orange 2,644 7,082 167.9%
San Diego 3,931 8,975 128.3%
Riverside 5,750 15,022 161.3%
San Bernardino 4,357 11,149 155.9%
Ventura 965 2,176 125.5%
Imperial 258 566 119.4%
SoCal 26,748 65,309 144.2%
San Francisco 216 420 94.4%
Alameda 1,578 3,194 102.4%
Contra Costa 1,969 4,718 139.6%
Santa Clara 1,058 3,074 190.5%
San Mateo 382 911 138.5%
Marin 118 314 166.1%
Solano 914 2,091 128.8%
Sonoma 407 1,392 242.0%
Napa 88 284 222.7%
Bay Area 6,730 16,398 143.7%
Santa Cruz 171 447 161.4%
Santa Barbara 372 897 141.1%
San Luis Obispo 181 385 112.7%
Monterey 458 1,468 220.5%
Coast 1,182 3,197 170.5%
Sacramento 3,234 6,898 113.3%
San Joaquin 1,721 4,657 170.6%
Placer 518 1,031 99.0%
Kern 1,297 3,211 147.6%
Fresno 1,116 2,464 120.8%
Madera 184 523 184.2%
Merced 511 1,759 244.2%
Tulare 436 947 117.2%
Yolo 197 488 147.7%
El Dorado 219 394 79.9%
Stanislaus 1,141 3,192 179.8%
Kings 88 182 106.8%
San Benito 107 272 154.2%
Yuba 151 357 136.4%
Colusa 20 81 305.0%
Sutter 114 337 195.6%
Central Valley 11,054 26,793 142.4%
Mountains* 291 588 102.1%
North Calif* 755 1,391 84.2%
Statewide 46,760 113,676 143.1%
May 19th, 2008 at 3:39 pm
Dodd, Shelby Reach Agreement on Anti-Foreclosure Bill
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNPV7.eDO.2Y&refer=home
May 19th, 2008 at 3:47 pm
Yep Thoughtful, you can find WHATEVER you want to support your cause here on this blog. Wait, I thought the bears cared about the little guy, you know, they just want everyone to be able to buy here in OC. So, the masses are beginning to speak and activity is up. Again, why is this uptick such a problem for you Bubbs?
May 19th, 2008 at 3:50 pm
To the bulls I would say this, backup your claim that prices will rise again so sharply. If you believe that then pick a house currently listed here on the MLS and BUY it then come back in year and brag about your gain. HOWEVER, if you dont come back and face the music thats taking the weak way out. You can even wager on such things thru the net on sites. Put the address right here what you paid, and next year we can all come back and check it out on Zillow and see what comes. I know what we will see, and its why you won’t dare do this.
to the bears i say this, the pick up in sales is great for 2 reasons. The first a former real estate investor friend of mine who did very well and sold ALL his properties, told me we need these knife cathcers to set new and lower comps each purchase represents a new lower comp and pulls more of the neighbors underwater(we all know many took out money and teaser rates), these new comps decimate a whole new crop of future foreclosures. As pointed out above this is why spotting a trend of declining foreclosure is the key to the turnaround, it can’t happen while they are increasing. The second good reason for the uptick in sales is this, it takes money off the table that won’t be there come this time next year. As people think they get a good deal now will find out next year they jumped in to early and they won’t have the resources to buy again. this is key because next year as the Option Arm bomb hits there will be less buyers. Many people think they got a good dealing buying a home for 500K a year to a year and half ago, only to find its now worth 350K.
Its always about incomes in the end. So let the realtors enjoy this uptick and know it is actually helping the prices go down more.
May 19th, 2008 at 3:50 pm
this has and always will be about affordability
whether or not congress has enough votes after Bush vetos this…….. does not matter that much………… affordablity drives the sustainability of our housing market….. bail out or no bail out
when prices come down more you realtors will see better volumes….. everyone will be happy…..
May 19th, 2008 at 3:52 pm
OK - just got 2 minutes - will return later tonight…
Mulli: I definitely prefer balanced statements like yours. Nothing based on pure conjecture. I like the positive data.
I would like to get your take on something else: Stating “buttloads of sales coming down the pipe” - well - that would only mean someone’s definition of buttload is heavily distorted, yes? Buttload would mean that we have surpassed the historical average - because average would be a goal at this point - not buttload - and that is for volume.
Now my own 2 cents and a few questions (to anyone):
As for pricing - we then need to look at inventory - has inventory declined based on these sales numbers? The pending sales would have removed those homes from inventory - thus, I ask, have we had a corresponding decrease in inventory or is the rate by which homes are hitting the market increased as well to match the rate of sales - essentially leaving us with the same amount of homes on the market? What are we seeing here?
And what is the historical average for inventory?
Lastly, if the rate of foreclosures, NOD’s, etc. has not changed - then are we still very much in a distressed market where pricing has now reached levels where more buyers find value? But does it change the fact we are still very much in a distressed market?
By this definition - how can anyone state that bargains are now gone when they are exactly what is fueling the recovery and more of them are hitting the market - not less? I am EXTREMELY OPEN to intelligent debate and reasoning - please explain if you disagree.
If a property is priced at 20% below its last high or whatever the high would have been, and then sells at or even just above that discounted price - I don’t care what you call it - it is a bargain - plain and simple.
Now if inventory was decreasing and rate of foreclosures, rather distressed props in general, that are hitting the market had decreased, then one could reasonably state that the available bargains are beginning to decrease - assuming that a bargain is defined by a distressed property.
I am glad to see people are picking up homes that they can afford. Seeing that there currently remains a generally higher level of risk in this market than we had in 1996 thru 2001, I would guess that an unexpected protraction of this downturn would end up with lower rates of foreclosure. That is what also makes these latest events interesting and positive - even if prices continue to drop, that in itself should not extend the downturn too much - seeing buyers of recent past truly fueled this one.
I’d be interested to read other peoples take on possible root causes and reasonable predictions.
May 19th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
You just can’t stop the attacks, can you nbi? You are the very definition of passive aggressive. For your information a “boatload” (which is not the same as a “buttload”) of sales in the pipeline doesn’t have to meet YOUR standard. We are seeing pendings rise dramatically, like clockwork, every two weeks. If this continues (and with jumbos dropping so dramtically, it should) we will indeed hit the historical numbers. I know you think that everyone is in awe of your detailed questions and 12-inch-long diatribes, but we honestly think they’re a bore. You are a legend in your own mind.
May 19th, 2008 at 4:04 pm
And Mulli and I agree on just about everything housing.
May 19th, 2008 at 4:12 pm
The latest statistics according to Bubbs:
7082 NOD in OC…sounds like alot.
960,000 Approximately the total number of households in OC.
0.74% Percentage of all households receiving a NOD in OC.
About 1/3 of these will emerge from foreclosure and retain their home.
We have a ways to go…but when you look at the big picture, it seems a bit more manageable.
May 19th, 2008 at 4:18 pm
are you kiddig mulli?
http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/2008/05/19/banks-take-possession-of-record-number-of-oc-homes/
you don’t think that is significant?
you are celebrating a measley 2600 pending deals when 10-20% of those will fall out of escrow and foreclosures in the OC are accelerating to close to 1000 per month…… this is good, how?
May 19th, 2008 at 4:19 pm
mulli
better yet for every 1 pending deal a NOD was sent out in the OC in April…. how lovely
May 19th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
No I am not kidding mav…the overall stat does not sit well with you?
I do not recall saying it was insignificant regarding the NOD numbers. I am saying if you look at the total number of households here, well, that is why the register would not run the headline of “0.74% of all OC households are in foreclosure” as this would have no effect on the reader.
Are you saying that the volume moving north for the first time in 7 months is not significant? To me, that is the big story. I am ok with the FC and NOD activity as it is going to come eventually. Let’s get it over with.
May 19th, 2008 at 4:51 pm
my 10 year old read this blog and asked
me why thoughtless posts under different
names apparently a childs mentality can
spot another childs mentality
May 19th, 2008 at 4:57 pm
7082 NODs was just for 1 quarter of the year……….
1 Freakin quarter!
you act like this is a done deal and no more foreclosures are coming tomorrow…. the pace is in fact accelerating……
your silly 0.74% calculation is god awful for 1 quarter…… in 1 quarter almost 1 out of every 100 homes was sent a default notice….. how in the world is this good…. this is absolutely horrendous……. even at that pace you are looking at 3% for the year…… you are crazy if you think that is not a big deal….
May 19th, 2008 at 5:16 pm
rants talks alot about his/her 10 year old a good bit here.
mav, what do you want…i just said let’s just get it over with…if you look at the foreclosure numbers for the year…of course they are at an all time high…as we just left the all time high of values and sales…the two go hand in hand, yes?
And you conveniently ignored my question with respect to volume uptick…baby steps bro…baby steps. First time we cracked 2000 during the time of a serious credit crunch. This is a good thing, yes? Or, do you want the numbers to continue to spiral downward until the value here is equivalent to Laredo, Tx?
Just what is it going to take for you and the rest of the “HARDLINE BEARS” to admit that there are many people who think values at this level are pretty good in many areas?
I have accepted that the quicker we get through the FC and NOD activity, the better.
Man you are very hard to please.
May 19th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
Not buying it, I was going to dig up posts that show what you were looking for, i.e., evidence of balance from me, but then I realized the utter stupidity of it. I owe you nothing. I have expressed many balanced views here, it’s your loss that you ignored/overlooked them. I have also added 10 times the information, analysis and insight than you ever have. I might have spent my time proving myself to you until I realized that what you are demanding of me is unique in this blog. I stick my fingers in the eyes of the ravenous bears for fun as much as anything, and they do as well. If you were honest, which you are not, you would demand the same balance from bubble and his merry band of freaks (who I remind you have NEVER (unlike me) shown balance)). The fact that you overlook this little detail, yet continue harass me for the same, speaks volumes about your lack of character. I am done with you.
May 19th, 2008 at 5:26 pm
Escrows are NOT falling out in big numbers. Mav is wrong.
May 19th, 2008 at 5:27 pm
Wow so looks like it Mr Thoughtful was right it is a good time to buy afterall…………………………..
Oh nevermind I guess that only applies to Garden Grove, Anaheim, and Santa Ana the areas that comprise most of the zip codes with increased YOY sales.
So maybe we should qualify the statement………….. It may be a good time to buy an abandoned, destitute, destroyed, foreclosure in Garden Grove or Anaheim after you lowball them and they take it because they are on their knees and have no choice.
May 19th, 2008 at 5:35 pm
No, I didn’t say “it’s a good time to buy”. Nope. Never. I DO think that though! Many will look back at the fleeting opportunity to enter good neighborhoods at 2004 prices as a once in a lifetime opportunity, one that has slipped through their hands. It may already be late, as multiple offers rule the day and jumbo money is sweet as honey.
May 19th, 2008 at 5:48 pm
I hope the market becomes stable by next year when it is my turn to buy. So even as a bear I consider it good news. Although North Orange County still seems to be declining at a rapid rate from the listings I have been watching sitting there forever.
May 19th, 2008 at 6:09 pm
I keep seeing the folks at Chapman predicting 15,000 layoffs in 2008 based on EDD data. Then I see the EDD saying there was a 3200 job increase in January and 2000 job increase in March. I didn’t catch February. Of course there is the 500,000 new residents that came to Califronia in 2007. I suppose they are living in tents at the Great Park. Don’t be surprised if the perma-bears start bragging about how much money they made by buying a house in December 2007.<