Here's recent history of the Fed’s policy committee and its Fed Funds rate. Next Fed decision is June 24/25.
O.C. homebuying near 8-month high in late April
May 16th, 2008, 10:04 am · 114 Comments · posted by Jon Lansner/O.C. Register columnist
DataQuick’s freshest Orange County homebuying stats from late April hint the month could mark the first month with more than 2,000 homes sales since August. For the 22 business days ended April 28, 2,117 residences were sold, down 29.4% vs. a year ago. Pricing was soft, too, off 20.6% vs. a year ago.
Before the credit crunch zapped easy mortgage money beginning last summer, only two months since 1988 saw less than 2,000 O.C. homes changing hands. O.C.’s suffered seven straight through March. To be sure, 2,000 sales ain’t huge. Since ‘88, DataQuick reports show sales averaging 3,793 per month.
DataQuick’s latest report shows that 15 of 83 O.C. ZIPs had year-over-year sales gains; 13 ZIPS had year-over-year prices gains. See the ZIP-by-ZIP data HERE! Perhaps you can ponder why it takes a $191,106 income to buy an O.C. house.
Here’s how the O.C. market performed in this most recent period by the slice: By the slice …
| Slice | Price | Vs. ‘07 | Sales | Vs. ‘07 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| House | $550,000 | -23.6% | 1,434 | -22.0% |
| Condo | $389,500 | -15.3% | 519 | -35.9% |
| New | $486,500 | -21.1% | 164 | -53.1% |
| All | $500,000 | -20.6% | 2,117 | -29.4% |
• COMPARE: CLICK HERE to see how other home-price indexes see O.C.
May 16th, 2008 at 10:09 am
Per DataQuick, Single Family Median Home Price:
2006 ~ Monthly
$690,000 = Feb ~ Watts forecast 15% for SFH
$695,000 = Mar
$705,000 = Apr
$705,000 = May
$700,000 = Jun
$699,000 = Jul ~ Watts revises forecast to 11%
$685,000 = Aug
$680,000 = Sep
$665,000 = Oct
$660,000 = Nov
$665,000 = Dec
2007 ~ Monthly
$675,000 = Jan ~ Watts forecast 7% SFH
$675,000 = Feb
$695,000 = Mar
$720,000 = Apr ~ New Century Bankruptcy
$695,000 = May
$734,000 = Jun ~ Peak of O.C. Housing Bubble
$718,000 = Jul
$710,000 = Aug
$655,000 = Sep
$650,000 = Oct
$655,000 = Nov
$600,000 = Dec
2008 ~ Weekly ~ Monthly
$600,000 = 01/07 ~ Watts “Pent up Demand”
$595,000 = 01/15
$595,000 = 01/23
$583,250 = Jan
$585,000 = 02/07
$575,000 = 02/13
$575,000 = 02/22
$575.000 = Feb
$580,000 = 03/07
$575,000 = 03/14
$567,000 = 03/20
$570,000 = 03/26
$570,000 = Mar
$553,750 = 04/08
$565,000 = 04/14
$563,000 = 04/22
$550,000 = 04/28 ~ COMP KILLERS AT WORK!
Per DataQuick, this loss represents a $184,000 decline in single family home prices from the June 2007 high. And the beat goes on … and on … and on!
May 16th, 2008 at 10:20 am
Something isn’t kosher here (aside from the wortless medians):
2007
House $720,000 2.10% 1,659 -21.30%
Condo $465,000 1.10% 728 -31.30%
New* $603,500 -10.10% 295 -25.30%
All $629,000 -0.20% 2,682 -24.70%
2008
House $550,000 -23.60% 1,434 -22.00%
Condo $389,500 -15.30% 519 -35.90%
New $486,500 -21.10% 164 -53.10%
All $500,000 -20.60% 2,117 -29.40%
Do the math. The YOY numbers are NOT ACCURATE!
May 16th, 2008 at 10:23 am
Guess Steve Thomas was right afterall.
May 16th, 2008 at 10:24 am
Yesterday I was getting off the 73 at Moulton Pkwy around 4:30pm. There was a women who I thought was going to cross the steet on foot, but instead held out a sign that said she was desperate and asking for money. She looked pretty normal the way she was dressed for the Laguna Niguel area so I did not think she was a drug addict.
I wonder what it is going to look like next year. Is there going to be a crowd there?
May 16th, 2008 at 10:29 am
Homes are not off 21%, they are off 13%. When the last few days of April are counted it will probably be even closer. This is an incredibly big jump that is on track to keep getting bigger.
May 16th, 2008 at 10:31 am
Lee forgot that the median skyrocketed by $45,000 this exact time last year. It was bogus then, and it’s bogus now.
May 16th, 2008 at 10:32 am
For the slow-witted: the “off 13%” figure is to volume.
May 16th, 2008 at 10:40 am
There are a lot of bargains at the low end of the market right now, which has dropped a lot more than higher priced homes. It definitely skews the median.
May 16th, 2008 at 10:41 am
THOUGHTFUL
CALM DOWN .. FREAK! We warned you of this, and you can’t stop it.
May 16th, 2008 at 10:41 am
Thoughtful - I’ve also noticed that sometimes the year-over-year percentages don’t always exactly add up. I would guess it either has to do with the dates not exactly matching up (for instance, one report ends April 28, 2008, but last year’s ended April 26, 2007 because of the calendar differences), or maybe there is some later revising, but I really have no idea.
May 16th, 2008 at 10:42 am
Maybe I’m missing something but isn’t this the prime home buying season? Isn’t April sales volume supposed to be higher than March anyways?
The interesting number is “April 08 down 29.4% vs. a year ago”
Keep in mind, April 07 was a pretty bad month compared to April 06.
“Pricing was soft, too, off 20.6% vs. a year ago.”
wow, that is a disaster. Think about the poor suckers who bought last year. OUCH!!!
May 16th, 2008 at 10:47 am
Thoughtful,
I went back and grabbed the dataQuick numbers from Lansner’s 5/11/2007 post, which had the numbers for the 22 days before April 25th (2007), which is the best comparison to these numbers.
House $720,000 +2.1% 1,780 -25.7%
Condo $459,000 -0.4% 795 -28.6%
New* $621,000 -0.6% 349 -25.4%
All $630,000 -0.6% 2,924 -26.5%
The from the 22 days before April 28th (2008) are
House $550,000 -23.6% 1,434 -22.0%
Condo $389,500 -15.3% 519 -35.9%
New $486,500 -21.1% 164 -53.1%
All $500,000 -20.6% 2,117 -29.4%
So the % differences for median are:
House -23.61%
Condo -15.14%
New* -21.66%
All -20.63%
For sales:
House -19.44%
Condo -34.72%
New* -53.01%
All -27.60%
So, the percentages are different for volume, but not 13%. I don’t know where you got your 2007 numbers. And, I don’t know why the percentages are still different, unless Lansner gets the correct numbers, but never posts them.
May 16th, 2008 at 10:54 am
Thanks New, March 2007 had a lot of volume so the stats you pulled must have caught the tail end of that. In any case, these numbers are convincing proof that the pending sales are real.
Lee, calm down. I know how upset this trend must be for you. Take a valium.
May 16th, 2008 at 11:00 am
Let’s just hope Bush vetos the mortgage bailout bill coming out of the senate. The last thing we need to is help out the losers who put themselves in this situation.
May 16th, 2008 at 11:16 am
http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/252628/broad-support-among-economists-and-experts-of-the-goal-of-providing-mortgage-debt-relief-to-distressed-borrowers
May 16th, 2008 at 11:17 am
Funny how the bears want to eat him alive now!
May 16th, 2008 at 11:20 am
ey thoughtless… read this then take your
medication… then get up in time to watch
wheel of fortune… then post 70 more times
http://www.cnbc.com/id/24615625
May 16th, 2008 at 11:22 am
Of Course pending sales are happening. It is April after all, one of the typically busiest sales months of the year. As you see above the average sales since 1988 is 3,800. At this point sales are off over 45% as compared to the average year. This includes all the great years of the bast 8 and those bad years. So wouldnt it makes sense to think that things are back to normal when sales are much closer to the Average than they are?
Also to be the best month since Aug. which are traditionally very slow months, isnt that big of a deal either.
It seems even with increased sales, we still have a long way to go until we reach a true bottom or start recovering.
To see the median right at 500K for the first time in a while is interesting. I know it doesnt matter to many here, Im not sure if it does me either. I believe more strongly in sq. ft. or just the comps that are out there.
It is good to see that more homes are becoming more and more affordable.
May 16th, 2008 at 11:23 am
That hag? Her argument is about adding to supply, which isn’t relevent everywhere. And she is just as wrong as your twin bubble about multifamily being only apartments. Even if it were apartments (which it is not) these are jobs, jobs, jobs.
May 16th, 2008 at 11:24 am
Very interesting stats.
Aloha,
Keahi
RE/MAX 808 Realty
877-737-2093
808-737-2093
May 16th, 2008 at 11:29 am
If steve t said that this isn’t the bottom, and that this freefall is the worst that he’s ever seen, and that it will continue for years - then I’d agree; he’s right.
The median for SFR crossing 500k will be a party opportunity.
When it crosses 400k, another party.
We could even throw a party when “Thoughtful” admits this was indeed a bubble (and not just a cycle peak) … though that doesn’t look like it’s going to ever happen.
Party on!
May 16th, 2008 at 11:36 am
The new multi-family is a combo of condos and apts. The bottom line is any new sales will be on the low end of the market. This increased supply of affordable homes will only hurt the upper end of the market since people will have more options. The middle and higher end homes will only languish on the market with few offers or at least ones it seem owners are willing to except. As long as the asking prices stay over inflated, they will not sell or at least not quickly enough.
With consumer confidence at now a 28 year low…Inflation is still high and growth is at a snails pace. We are in situation of stagflation for certain and teetering if we are not already there on a recession.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080516/bs_nm/usa_economy_housing_dc;_ylt=AtBOJKFr4OrqYY2ia2V6p_OyBhIF
If you think selling 1/2 as many homes in one month is good news I applaud your optimism. You are starting to sound like Hillary who still thinks she get the nomination.
May 16th, 2008 at 11:41 am
LANSNER,
PLEASE FIX THE COOKIE AND JAVASCRIPT ERROR THAT PREVENTS COMMENTS FROM POSTING. IT’S GETTING QUITE ANNOYING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
YOUR BLOGGER: We are now using far harsher anti-spam weaponry, the spam traffic was killing us … so please be kind and work around the issue as best as possble.
So, yes, it may be harder for some to comment.
I have alerted our IT folks to the challenge. … Jon
May 16th, 2008 at 11:49 am
The Fed has “taken steps to stabilize the housing markets,” said Jack Bouroudjian of Brewer Investments to CNBC. “We’re still seeing the remnants of it . . . but I feel very comfortable in saying that the credit crunch is now behind us; it’s yesterday’s news. I think we are now at the bottom of the housing crisis.”
May 16th, 2008 at 11:51 am
omg, this is crazy.
Oil keeps going up. More pain for the OC economy.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080516/oil_prices.html
May 16th, 2008 at 11:58 am
I find it amusing at how bulls seem to really hate Diana Olick. You guys should be more sympathetic towards someone who bought at the peak
May 16th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
If there is general agreement that the RE price inflation from about 2003 through early 2007 was driven by easy money and speculation– not people’s ability to actually afford what they were buying or the economy. Should we not exclude the sales data for those same years if we want to use today’s sales data to determine where we are in this bust?
Does anyone have the data to calculate the running average for 5-10 years prior to 2003? Seems this would be a much more sensible comparison.
May 16th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
Diana Olick was Dan Rathers protoge shall we say a CBS. She’s a political hack reporter with an ax to grind cause her boss got caught with his hand in the Microsoft Font cookie jar when he tried to pass off the phoney letter about Bush being AWOL. All she gives a fig about is that the economy look as bad as she can make it going into the election. And for someone who takes as gosepel every Case Shiller number that crosses her desk, she sure clamed up about Karl Case’ announcement the other day.
May 16th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
I think this sums it up very well
“To be sure, 2,000 sales ain’t huge”
No, it’s not I agree. We’re still in the pits man. Just experience the normal summer uptick. Which is small.
May 16th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
“This increased supply of affordable homes will only hurt the upper end of the market since people will have more options.”
Samson, we’ve debated this many times. Your argument is fundamentally flawed. If new products are smaller and denser, this HELPS larger products, not the other way around. There will always be demand for big homes, and as they represent a smaller and smaller percentage of the housing stock, that scarcity will buoy them. I don’t understand how you don’t understand that.
May 16th, 2008 at 12:14 pm
Once again alfa…right on the money. The news is so left leaning it is comical. They have agendas back to front and top to bottom…pdu will need some duct tape to keep his head on his shoulders at the mere mention of this… but it is true. Go read any of Bernie Goldberg’s books…or better yet, track the negative stories on Bush vs Clinton. If Bill would not have cheated on his husband with that fat intern who just wanted to be famous, he might have a statue erected of his bust outside ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, MSNBC, CNBC (although there are a slew of republicans that work there…shocking) right this second.
Additionally, anyone else have a problem with GE CEO Jeffrey immelt doing biz with Iran? What a dolt.
May 16th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
“If Bill would not have cheated on his husband with that fat intern ”
LOL
May 16th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
Jon, seriously. Your webmaster needs to fix the cookie problem with this blog.
May 16th, 2008 at 12:38 pm
I agree. I can’t post. But Truthiness can.
May 16th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
Here is what I do to post…..
I write the post. I save it (control C) Press Submit. If the Java Script/cookies comes up, I come back to the blog and refresh the screen. Click in the comments box and press Control V to paste the comment back in the box. Then Ipress Submit. It usually works. Also, I think this may happen when more than one person is attempting to comment at the same time.
Works for me.
May 16th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
“To be sure, 2,000 sales ain’t huge”
No, it’s not I agree. We’re still in the pits man. Just experience the normal summer uptick. Which is small.”
Too funny! This is the front end of a boatload of pending sales. The last pending sales report portends demand exceeding 2007 and fast approaching 2006 levels. You will see those shortly. This is far, far more than a spring bump. I guess you have to hang on to something.
May 16th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
Is there a non real estate related blog on this site?
May 16th, 2008 at 12:49 pm
Dig,
Yes there is. I just saw a post by rants saying that Jack is a government spy over in the “Fast Food Blog”.
May 16th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
test
May 16th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
Mulliganville Says:
May 16th, 2008 at 12:14 pm
“Once again alfa…right on the money. The news is so left leaning it is comical. They have agendas back to front and top to bottom…pdu will need some duct tape to keep his head on his shoulders at the mere mention of this… but it is true. Go read any of Bernie Goldberg’s books…or better yet, track the negative stories on Bush vs Clinton. If Bill would not have cheated on his husband with that fat intern who just wanted to be famous, he might have a statue erected of his bust outside ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, MSNBC, CNBC (although there are a slew of republicans that work there…shocking) right this second.”
Oh no, the right wing parade shows up. That CBS memo may have been fabricated, but Bush was AWOL. Didn’t CBS bow down to right wing pressure not to show the mini series about Reagan a few years back? ABC sure didn’t listen to left wing pressure when they ran that mini series that partly blamed Clinton for 9/11.
BTW, did you know that Thoughtful approves the recent CA supreme court rulling?
“Additionally, anyone else have a problem with GE CEO Jeffrey immelt doing biz with Iran? What a dolt.”
Two words: Iran-contra. See who did business with whom.
May 16th, 2008 at 12:55 pm
Also, just let your techs know that the session time out is simply way too short.
May 16th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
workaround…type in your response…highlight it…copy it…refresh your browser…paste it and submit…works every time.
May 16th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
Mulli and Alfalfa will take responsibility for me when you take responsibility for rants!
May 16th, 2008 at 1:03 pm
Fast food blog sounds very engaging…I can get all of those sort of updates from my wife scanning the TMZ site.
No, the issue is that the blog could simply be copied and pasted daily from one issue to the next…being specific to RE it does not go far enough into other issues (look above…the tangent on oil is ignored for example) perhaps topics like general economic discussions, perhaps political, I would like a blog for geniouses by geniouses…so I thought I would ask a group of geniouses for that link.
Everyone these days seems to want to wear the crown of ignorance.
May 16th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
Seems like many of the bears on hear are just shills for the left, hoping to talk down the economy to get Obama elected. I’m sad to say it just might work. We are headed for Jimmy Carter, Part II.
May 16th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
Dig,
If you go to the Register home page, there is a list of blogs. Maybe one will suit your discerning taste.
May 16th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
On Diana Olick - maybe she didn’t jump on him because she got the whole interview and didn’t soundbite it out of context?
http://news.bostonherald.com/business/real_estate/view.bg?articleid=1092789&srvc=home&position=recent
“According to Case, the decline in housing starts nationally has reached a key threshold, dropping below the 1 million mark last month.
Over the past 30 years, this has signaled the end of a real estate market downturn. Housing construction rebounded sharply in the ’70s, ’80s and ’90s after reaching this low point, Case said.”
Let’s hold here a second. He’s only talking about new housing starts. Where is the rest of the interview? Where is the context?
“Fellow economist Nicholas Perna said he would like to believe Case, but he’s not sure, either, that the worst is over.
“I really hope he is right,” Perna said. “If you start seeing signs the housing thing is turning around, you will see housing stocks go up, financial stocks go up. A lot of things ride on this.””
All I see if waves of write offs and red ink from lenders and builders alike. I’m with Perna.
May 16th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
“Too funny! This is the front end of a boatload of pending sales. The last pending sales report portends demand exceeding 2007 and fast approaching 2006 levels. You will see those shortly. This is far, far more than a spring bump. I guess you have to hang on to something.”
When do you expect to see this happen? July?
May 16th, 2008 at 1:28 pm
Here is the video of Diana Olick explaining why today’s housing starts numbers is not good news for the housing market.
Housing construction up in April
May 16th, 2008 at 1:30 pm
Strange how the Fannie Mae bombshell today passed without so much as a “how do you do”. The tossing out of “declining market” rules is a huge development. I’ve seen some rumors about “tightening” that would cancel it out, but there’s little truth to it. Fannie Mae issued new guidelines on March 31, 2008 (Announcement 08-08). You will see on their website
https://www.efanniemae.com/sf/guides/ssg/2008annlenltr.jsp
that there have been no announcements, other than raising conforming limits (Announcement 08-09) since then. The “new” guidelines are very generous. The biggest deal is a bump from 580 to 620 for many programs. FHA will pick up those people. Here are the guidelines (see Attachment 1, page 16):
https://www.efanniemae.com/sf/guides/ssg/annltrs/pdf/2008/0808.pdf
Now, do you want to hear the truth, or do you want to hear what you want to hear?
May 16th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
I have no idea why Thoughtless hates Diana so much. I think she kind of cute, don’t you think?
May 16th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
OK. Let me get this straight. We are seeing a very nice uptick in sales volume. Exactly what is the month over month percentage difference for the past 12 months?
Then we have some very interesting FACTUAL data that shows a nice trend here: The average monthly volume since 1988 - THAT IS 1988 when the population was much less and housing volume was less - is almost 3500 homes - and that is the month of April.
prior to this downturn, not a single month saw less than 2000 home sold. We finally break through that mark to the tune of 2111 homes. Hmmm…. Then if we were to look at month over month percentages - SOMEONE PLEASE SHOW ME HOW THE VOLUME INCREASE IN APRIL IS NOTHING MORE THAN A SEASONAL TREND?!?!? I don’t have time to crunch the numbers - but I am sure Thoughtful will, and then he will make sure that he does not post those numbers - as he truly believes that these numbers can only be justified by ……. what was that you stated? The bottom is here and the market is back and alive? And Thoughtful - please stick to the county and to all sales - let’s be real here - these numbers are still low enough where breaking them out serves little purpose when deciding on whether or not the market has truly turned.
I am not hanging my hat on the fact that we hit bottom - that is what you need to understand. Hanging my hat on something as an investor means that the data clearly shows we are at sustaining sales volume, which you would be lying if you said we were. It would mean paired pricing comparison showed the market was clearly turning - you would also be lying if you said it is. At this point - and I DO AGREE - I can easily articulate a purely speculative conclusion in the direction that we’re at bottom. But do that to an audience of seasoned investors - as a matter of fact, Thoughtful - I can set that up for you if want.
What do you say?
I can predict the retort: “volume has increased - live with it” - OH how meaningful!!!! and I’m having a GREAT DAY!!!! I hope everyone else is too.
Oh wait -someone stated “buttload of pending sales.”
Hmmm. wait a minute. Let’s make sure we understand their perspective. Are they comparing to historical averages or THE LAST FRICKIN’ 8 MONTHS which had RECORD LOWS NEVER PREVIOUSLY RECORDED!!!! Hmmm.. where’s the reasoning skills there?
I bet their children, after failing Math for three years in a row and ends up getting a D - they feel that’s reason enough to go to Disneyland!!!
lastly - you sound like you have actual numbers - otherwise you wouldn’t have stated what you did - what is that number (aka: buttload) you are referring to and when can we expect to see them on record?
May 16th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
I despise her because she is a lying b!tch. Even today, she lied about the multifamily starts being “only apartments”. When asked is there any “silver lining”, she doesn’t mention jobs, she only pontificates on fewer SFR starts being good for buyers. How are fewer SFR starts going to support lower prices?
May 16th, 2008 at 1:45 pm
Again, nbi, you are caught behind the curve. The pending sales in the pipeline are not only far better than 2007, they are almost at 2006 levels. All things in due time, kiddies.
May 16th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
Not Buying It:
You make a good point, that from a historical context the RE market is still in the dumps, and most likely will be for a while.
But I think that the bulls are trying to point out a couple of things:
1) The Dataquick numbers are starting to reflect the volume increase that Steve Thomas’s numbers predicted 6 weeks ago. If this trend holds, in the next month or so we can expect a Year over Year increase in volume. YOY comparisons are significant, because they can’t be explained by seasonality as hit holds the season constant.
2) Even though the volume uptick undoubtedly has a seasonal component to it, so far we have not had the corresponding seasonal uptick in inventory (if Steve Thomas’s numbers are to be believed). That is a very positive step for an eventual recovery as inventory levels may eventually reduce to a manageable level.
Obviously any one that denies that prices have taken a dramatic fall or that the RE market is still very very sick lives in an alternate reality. But it does appear that baby steps are being made in the market towards recovery.
May 16th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
My point is lost on you Thoughtful. You and I fundamentally disagree on affordability. My affordable products need to be on the market to improve affordability and increase the number of homeowners. Regardless of what you think there is a floating ceiling on the number of homeowners at various price points.
As the older generation moves on and the younger generation is looking for newer, urbanized settings. Take a look at what (for the most part) is being built. Mostly small lot @1,500 - 2K homes most detached, but many at