DataQuick’s freshest Orange County homebuying stats from late April hint the month could mark the first month with more than 2,000 homes sales since August. For the 22 business days ended April 28, 2,117 residences were sold, down 29.4% vs. a year ago. Pricing was soft, too, off 20.6% vs. a year ago.
Before the credit crunch zapped easy mortgage money beginning last summer, only two months since 1988 saw less than 2,000 O.C. homes changing hands. O.C.’s suffered seven straight through March. To be sure, 2,000 sales ain’t huge. Since ‘88, DataQuick reports show sales averaging 3,793 per month.
DataQuick’s latest report shows that 15 of 83 O.C. ZIPs had year-over-year sales gains; 13 ZIPS had year-over-year prices gains. See the ZIP-by-ZIP data HERE! Perhaps you can ponder why it takes a $191,106 income to buy an O.C. house.
Here’s how the O.C. market performed in this most recent period by the slice: By the slice …
| Slice | Price | Vs. ‘07 | Sales | Vs. ‘07 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| House | $550,000 | -23.6% | 1,434 | -22.0% |
| Condo | $389,500 | -15.3% | 519 | -35.9% |
| New | $486,500 | -21.1% | 164 | -53.1% |
| All | $500,000 | -20.6% | 2,117 | -29.4% |
• COMPARE: CLICK HERE to see how other home-price indexes see O.C.
Per DataQuick, Single Family Median Home Price:
2006 ~ Monthly
$690,000 = Feb ~ Watts forecast 15% for SFH
$695,000 = Mar
$705,000 = Apr
$705,000 = May
$700,000 = Jun
$699,000 = Jul ~ Watts revises forecast to 11%
$685,000 = Aug
$680,000 = Sep
$665,000 = Oct
$660,000 = Nov
$665,000 = Dec
2007 ~ Monthly
$675,000 = Jan ~ Watts forecast 7% SFH
$675,000 = Feb
$695,000 = Mar
$720,000 = Apr ~ New Century Bankruptcy
$695,000 = May
$734,000 = Jun ~ Peak of O.C. Housing Bubble
$718,000 = Jul
$710,000 = Aug
$655,000 = Sep
$650,000 = Oct
$655,000 = Nov
$600,000 = Dec
2008 ~ Weekly ~ Monthly
$600,000 = 01/07 ~ Watts “Pent up Demand”
$595,000 = 01/15
$595,000 = 01/23
$583,250 = Jan
$585,000 = 02/07
$575,000 = 02/13
$575,000 = 02/22
$575.000 = Feb
$580,000 = 03/07
$575,000 = 03/14
$567,000 = 03/20
$570,000 = 03/26
$570,000 = Mar
$553,750 = 04/08
$565,000 = 04/14
$563,000 = 04/22
$550,000 = 04/28 ~ COMP KILLERS AT WORK!
Per DataQuick, this loss represents a $184,000 decline in single family home prices from the June 2007 high. And the beat goes on … and on … and on!
Something isn’t kosher here (aside from the wortless medians):
2007
House $720,000 2.10% 1,659 -21.30%
Condo $465,000 1.10% 728 -31.30%
New* $603,500 -10.10% 295 -25.30%
All $629,000 -0.20% 2,682 -24.70%
2008
House $550,000 -23.60% 1,434 -22.00%
Condo $389,500 -15.30% 519 -35.90%
New $486,500 -21.10% 164 -53.10%
All $500,000 -20.60% 2,117 -29.40%
Do the math. The YOY numbers are NOT ACCURATE!
Guess Steve Thomas was right afterall.
Yesterday I was getting off the 73 at Moulton Pkwy around 4:30pm. There was a women who I thought was going to cross the steet on foot, but instead held out a sign that said she was desperate and asking for money. She looked pretty normal the way she was dressed for the Laguna Niguel area so I did not think she was a drug addict.
I wonder what it is going to look like next year. Is there going to be a crowd there?
Homes are not off 21%, they are off 13%. When the last few days of April are counted it will probably be even closer. This is an incredibly big jump that is on track to keep getting bigger.
Lee forgot that the median skyrocketed by $45,000 this exact time last year. It was bogus then, and it’s bogus now.
For the slow-witted: the “off 13%” figure is to volume.
There are a lot of bargains at the low end of the market right now, which has dropped a lot more than higher priced homes. It definitely skews the median.
THOUGHTFUL
CALM DOWN .. FREAK! We warned you of this, and you can’t stop it.
Thoughtful - I’ve also noticed that sometimes the year-over-year percentages don’t always exactly add up. I would guess it either has to do with the dates not exactly matching up (for instance, one report ends April 28, 2008, but last year’s ended April 26, 2007 because of the calendar differences), or maybe there is some later revising, but I really have no idea.
Maybe I’m missing something but isn’t this the prime home buying season? Isn’t April sales volume supposed to be higher than March anyways?
The interesting number is “April 08 down 29.4% vs. a year ago”
Keep in mind, April 07 was a pretty bad month compared to April 06.
“Pricing was soft, too, off 20.6% vs. a year ago.”
wow, that is a disaster. Think about the poor suckers who bought last year. OUCH!!!
Thoughtful,
I went back and grabbed the dataQuick numbers from Lansner’s 5/11/2007 post, which had the numbers for the 22 days before April 25th (2007), which is the best comparison to these numbers.
House $720,000 +2.1% 1,780 -25.7%
Condo $459,000 -0.4% 795 -28.6%
New* $621,000 -0.6% 349 -25.4%
All $630,000 -0.6% 2,924 -26.5%
The from the 22 days before April 28th (2008) are
House $550,000 -23.6% 1,434 -22.0%
Condo $389,500 -15.3% 519 -35.9%
New $486,500 -21.1% 164 -53.1%
All $500,000 -20.6% 2,117 -29.4%
So the % differences for median are:
House -23.61%
Condo -15.14%
New* -21.66%
All -20.63%
For sales:
House -19.44%
Condo -34.72%
New* -53.01%
All -27.60%
So, the percentages are different for volume, but not 13%. I don’t know where you got your 2007 numbers. And, I don’t know why the percentages are still different, unless Lansner gets the correct numbers, but never posts them.
Thanks New, March 2007 had a lot of volume so the stats you pulled must have caught the tail end of that. In any case, these numbers are convincing proof that the pending sales are real.
Lee, calm down. I know how upset this trend must be for you. Take a valium.
Let’s just hope Bush vetos the mortgage bailout bill coming out of the senate. The last thing we need to is help out the losers who put themselves in this situation.
Funny how the bears want to eat him alive now!
Of Course pending sales are happening. It is April after all, one of the typically busiest sales months of the year. As you see above the average sales since 1988 is 3,800. At this point sales are off over 45% as compared to the average year. This includes all the great years of the bast 8 and those bad years. So wouldnt it makes sense to think that things are back to normal when sales are much closer to the Average than they are?
Also to be the best month since Aug. which are traditionally very slow months, isnt that big of a deal either.
It seems even with increased sales, we still have a long way to go until we reach a true bottom or start recovering.
To see the median right at 500K for the first time in a while is interesting. I know it doesnt matter to many here, Im not sure if it does me either. I believe more strongly in sq. ft. or just the comps that are out there.
It is good to see that more homes are becoming more and more affordable.
That hag? Her argument is about adding to supply, which isn’t relevent everywhere. And she is just as wrong as your twin bubble about multifamily being only apartments. Even if it were apartments (which it is not) these are jobs, jobs, jobs.
Very interesting stats.
Aloha,
Keahi
RE/MAX 808 Realty
877-737-2093
808-737-2093
If steve t said that this isn’t the bottom, and that this freefall is the worst that he’s ever seen, and that it will continue for years - then I’d agree; he’s right.
The median for SFR crossing 500k will be a party opportunity.
When it crosses 400k, another party.
We could even throw a party when “Thoughtful” admits this was indeed a bubble (and not just a cycle peak) … though that doesn’t look like it’s going to ever happen.
Party on!
LANSNER,
PLEASE FIX THE COOKIE AND JAVASCRIPT ERROR THAT PREVENTS COMMENTS FROM POSTING. IT’S GETTING QUITE ANNOYING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
YOUR BLOGGER: We are now using far harsher anti-spam weaponry, the spam traffic was killing us … so please be kind and work around the issue as best as possble.
So, yes, it may be harder for some to comment.
I have alerted our IT folks to the challenge. … Jon
The Fed has “taken steps to stabilize the housing markets,” said Jack Bouroudjian of Brewer Investments to CNBC. “We’re still seeing the remnants of it . . . but I feel very comfortable in saying that the credit crunch is now behind us; it’s yesterday’s news. I think we are now at the bottom of the housing crisis.”
I find it amusing at how bulls seem to really hate Diana Olick. You guys should be more sympathetic towards someone who bought at the peak :)
If there is general agreement that the RE price inflation from about 2003 through early 2007 was driven by easy money and speculation– not people’s ability to actually afford what they were buying or the economy. Should we not exclude the sales data for those same years if we want to use today’s sales data to determine where we are in this bust?
Does anyone have the data to calculate the running average for 5-10 years prior to 2003? Seems this would be a much more sensible comparison.
Diana Olick was Dan Rathers protoge shall we say a CBS. She’s a political hack reporter with an ax to grind cause her boss got caught with his hand in the Microsoft Font cookie jar when he tried to pass off the phoney letter about Bush being AWOL. All she gives a fig about is that the economy look as bad as she can make it going into the election. And for someone who takes as gosepel every Case Shiller number that crosses her desk, she sure clamed up about Karl Case’ announcement the other day.
I think this sums it up very well
“To be sure, 2,000 sales ain’t huge”
No, it’s not I agree. We’re still in the pits man. Just experience the normal summer uptick. Which is small.
“This increased supply of affordable homes will only hurt the upper end of the market since people will have more options.”
Samson, we’ve debated this many times. Your argument is fundamentally flawed. If new products are smaller and denser, this HELPS larger products, not the other way around. There will always be demand for big homes, and as they represent a smaller and smaller percentage of the housing stock, that scarcity will buoy them. I don’t understand how you don’t understand that.
Once again alfa…right on the money. The news is so left leaning it is comical. They have agendas back to front and top to bottom…pdu will need some duct tape to keep his head on his shoulders at the mere mention of this… but it is true. Go read any of Bernie Goldberg’s books…or better yet, track the negative stories on Bush vs Clinton. If Bill would not have cheated on his husband with that fat intern who just wanted to be famous, he might have a statue erected of his bust outside ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, MSNBC, CNBC (although there are a slew of republicans that work there…shocking) right this second.
Additionally, anyone else have a problem with GE CEO Jeffrey immelt doing biz with Iran? What a dolt.
“If Bill would not have cheated on his husband with that fat intern ”
LOL
Jon, seriously. Your webmaster needs to fix the cookie problem with this blog.
I agree. I can’t post. But Truthiness can.
Here is what I do to post…..
I write the post. I save it (control C) Press Submit. If the Java Script/cookies comes up, I come back to the blog and refresh the screen. Click in the comments box and press Control V to paste the comment back in the box. Then Ipress Submit. It usually works. Also, I think this may happen when more than one person is attempting to comment at the same time.
Works for me.
“To be sure, 2,000 sales ain’t huge”
No, it’s not I agree. We’re still in the pits man. Just experience the normal summer uptick. Which is small.”
Too funny! This is the front end of a boatload of pending sales. The last pending sales report portends demand exceeding 2007 and fast approaching 2006 levels. You will see those shortly. This is far, far more than a spring bump. I guess you have to hang on to something.
Is there a non real estate related blog on this site?
Dig,
Yes there is. I just saw a post by rants saying that Jack is a government spy over in the “Fast Food Blog”.
test
Mulliganville Says:
May 16th, 2008 at 12:14 pm
“Once again alfa…right on the money. The news is so left leaning it is comical. They have agendas back to front and top to bottom…pdu will need some duct tape to keep his head on his shoulders at the mere mention of this… but it is true. Go read any of Bernie Goldberg’s books…or better yet, track the negative stories on Bush vs Clinton. If Bill would not have cheated on his husband with that fat intern who just wanted to be famous, he might have a statue erected of his bust outside ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, MSNBC, CNBC (although there are a slew of republicans that work there…shocking) right this second.”
Oh no, the right wing parade shows up. That CBS memo may have been fabricated, but Bush was AWOL. Didn’t CBS bow down to right wing pressure not to show the mini series about Reagan a few years back? ABC sure didn’t listen to left wing pressure when they ran that mini series that partly blamed Clinton for 9/11.
BTW, did you know that Thoughtful approves the recent CA supreme court rulling?
“Additionally, anyone else have a problem with GE CEO Jeffrey immelt doing biz with Iran? What a dolt.”
Two words: Iran-contra. See who did business with whom.
Also, just let your techs know that the session time out is simply way too short.
workaround…type in your response…highlight it…copy it…refresh your browser…paste it and submit…works every time.
Mulli and Alfalfa will take responsibility for me when you take responsibility for rants!
Fast food blog sounds very engaging…I can get all of those sort of updates from my wife scanning the TMZ site.
No, the issue is that the blog could simply be copied and pasted daily from one issue to the next…being specific to RE it does not go far enough into other issues (look above…the tangent on oil is ignored for example) perhaps topics like general economic discussions, perhaps political, I would like a blog for geniouses by geniouses…so I thought I would ask a group of geniouses for that link.
Everyone these days seems to want to wear the crown of ignorance.
Seems like many of the bears on hear are just shills for the left, hoping to talk down the economy to get Obama elected. I’m sad to say it just might work. We are headed for Jimmy Carter, Part II.
Dig,
If you go to the Register home page, there is a list of blogs. Maybe one will suit your discerning taste.
“Too funny! This is the front end of a boatload of pending sales. The last pending sales report portends demand exceeding 2007 and fast approaching 2006 levels. You will see those shortly. This is far, far more than a spring bump. I guess you have to hang on to something.”
When do you expect to see this happen? July?
I have no idea why Thoughtless hates Diana so much. I think she kind of cute, don’t you think?
OK. Let me get this straight. We are seeing a very nice uptick in sales volume. Exactly what is the month over month percentage difference for the past 12 months?
Then we have some very interesting FACTUAL data that shows a nice trend here: The average monthly volume since 1988 - THAT IS 1988 when the population was much less and housing volume was less - is almost 3500 homes - and that is the month of April.
prior to this downturn, not a single month saw less than 2000 home sold. We finally break through that mark to the tune of 2111 homes. Hmmm…. Then if we were to look at month over month percentages - SOMEONE PLEASE SHOW ME HOW THE VOLUME INCREASE IN APRIL IS NOTHING MORE THAN A SEASONAL TREND?!?!? I don’t have time to crunch the numbers - but I am sure Thoughtful will, and then he will make sure that he does not post those numbers - as he truly believes that these numbers can only be justified by ……. what was that you stated? The bottom is here and the market is back and alive? And Thoughtful - please stick to the county and to all sales - let’s be real here - these numbers are still low enough where breaking them out serves little purpose when deciding on whether or not the market has truly turned.
I am not hanging my hat on the fact that we hit bottom - that is what you need to understand. Hanging my hat on something as an investor means that the data clearly shows we are at sustaining sales volume, which you would be lying if you said we were. It would mean paired pricing comparison showed the market was clearly turning - you would also be lying if you said it is. At this point - and I DO AGREE - I can easily articulate a purely speculative conclusion in the direction that we’re at bottom. But do that to an audience of seasoned investors - as a matter of fact, Thoughtful - I can set that up for you if want.
What do you say?
I can predict the retort: “volume has increased - live with it” - OH how meaningful!!!! and I’m having a GREAT DAY!!!! I hope everyone else is too.
Oh wait -someone stated “buttload of pending sales.”
Hmmm. wait a minute. Let’s make sure we understand their perspective. Are they comparing to historical averages or THE LAST FRICKIN’ 8 MONTHS which had RECORD LOWS NEVER PREVIOUSLY RECORDED!!!! Hmmm.. where’s the reasoning skills there?
I bet their children, after failing Math for three years in a row and ends up getting a D - they feel that’s reason enough to go to Disneyland!!!
lastly - you sound like you have actual numbers - otherwise you wouldn’t have stated what you did - what is that number (aka: buttload) you are referring to and when can we expect to see them on record?
I despise her because she is a lying b!tch. Even today, she lied about the multifamily starts being “only apartments”. When asked is there any “silver lining”, she doesn’t mention jobs, she only pontificates on fewer SFR starts being good for buyers. How are fewer SFR starts going to support lower prices?
Again, nbi, you are caught behind the curve. The pending sales in the pipeline are not only far better than 2007, they are almost at 2006 levels. All things in due time, kiddies.
Not Buying It:
You make a good point, that from a historical context the RE market is still in the dumps, and most likely will be for a while.
But I think that the bulls are trying to point out a couple of things:
1) The Dataquick numbers are starting to reflect the volume increase that Steve Thomas’s numbers predicted 6 weeks ago. If this trend holds, in the next month or so we can expect a Year over Year increase in volume. YOY comparisons are significant, because they can’t be explained by seasonality as hit holds the season constant.
2) Even though the volume uptick undoubtedly has a seasonal component to it, so far we have not had the corresponding seasonal uptick in inventory (if Steve Thomas’s numbers are to be believed). That is a very positive step for an eventual recovery as inventory levels may eventually reduce to a manageable level.
Obviously any one that denies that prices have taken a dramatic fall or that the RE market is still very very sick lives in an alternate reality. But it does appear that baby steps are being made in the market towards recovery.
My point is lost on you Thoughtful. You and I fundamentally disagree on affordability. My affordable products need to be on the market to improve affordability and increase the number of homeowners. Regardless of what you think there is a floating ceiling on the number of homeowners at various price points.
As the older generation moves on and the younger generation is looking for newer, urbanized settings. Take a look at what (for the most part) is being built. Mostly small lot @1,500 - 2K homes most detached, but many attached. Addi tonally, high-rises and higher densities will become more prevalent as cities move more towards creating “new urbanized” communities. The cost of oil and the overall cost of living will force people to need to live, work and shop within very short distances.
The younger generation do not want to buy 50+ year old homes in collapsing neighborhoods unless they can be had fairly cheap.
The supply of homes built in the 80’s and 90’s isnt in much better shape and is also limited by location.
Their of course will be those that will want to purchase older homes, but with newer, more efficient homes being built in master planned communities that are affordable for more people, those older homes will not be as nearly attractive.
This is of course my opinion, but also something I deal with on a regular basis.
We have been looking for a home with our daughter in South Orange County, for about 4 months and have seen over 21 homes mostly priviate parties, a few REO’s and 4 short sales.
More than half have been reduced since we started and every single house is selling for over 20% less than peak, so the above numbers look about right, a little higher in some cases.
It’s like pulling the trigger on a moving target, you want to take the shot but bigger and better deals keep poping up.
Okay we’ll wait for your hard numbers to come out but if they are anything but spectacular you’d better damn well never come back because you’ll have lost the last tiny, tiny, atomsized shred of credibility that you have left.
I don’t if this was discuss in another tread or not but
The Orange County Register reports from California. “As the sub-prime mortgage crisis reverberates across Orange County, the Pufpafs and other Ladera residents are adjusting to a new housing reality: falling prices. Ladera Ranch resident and Realtor Sherrie LeVan represents Dyer as well as interior designer Toni Blackman, a resident in nearby Coto de Caza, who’s been flipping her homes every two to three years since the ’70s.”
“‘This is the worst I’ve seen it [the housing market],’ Blackman said.”
“Blackman bought a 3,100-square-foot home in Dove Canyon in September 2005, at the height of the housing bubble, for $1.45 million. ‘I knew I bought high,’ Blackman said.”
“When she put the house on the market in July 2007, it sat for six months until Blackman decided to lease it for $4,000 per month, $100 more than Blackman’s monthly mortgage payment. The $4,000 rent doesn’t cover the Mello-Roos taxes, homeowner’s association fees, pool maintenance and gardening fees that cost Blackman about $1,500 a month.”
“Blackman said she is hopeful that she’ll be able to recoup her losses by hanging onto the home for two more years. In the meantime, she is looking for full-time employment in sales or marketing and trying to keep a perspective on her situation.”
Yes, that perspective would be delusion.
Samson, we don’t disagree on the need for affordable housing options. You are the one who is missing the point. My one and only argument with you is that you are wrong when you keep saying that small products will cause large products to decline in value. That is frankly ridiculous.
# ?s Says:
“It’s like pulling the trigger on a moving target, you want to take the shot but bigger and better deals keep poping up.”
Well, wait to late 2009. There will be much better deals then.
Well we just have to disagree than. I am not saying the higher end stuff. I am saying the stuff in 550 to 750 range. If people can buy similar sized homes in communities that offer many more amenities, have shopping and parks that are close by and are not in aging neighborhoods with a lot of rentals and falling apart homes. Many would choose the newer, less expensive and even denser product over one that doesnt offer the same thing.
This demand shift that is coupled with an increased supply will only require that the less desirable product decrease in value to stay competitive. Now I am not talking what is going to happen in the year or maybe three years. I am talking long term. More so these homes are typically over valued to begin with and not affordable to most. The current market is proving that as prices continue to decline.
As affordability improves these homes will of course sell.
Too add to this, the reason you are seeing more multi-family homes being built is the requirement for Cities to meet their RHNA “Regional Housing Needs Assessment” as required by the state per the individual cities Housing Element. This means that cities are required to provide a certain amount of affordable housing stock, either for sale or for rent. Much of this is accomplished by building true “affordable housing” or “senior housing”. These are typically built at much higher densities.
The reason you are seeing more and more o f it now, is that developers entered into development agreements with the various cities to be permitted to create master planned communities. As a part of this agreement to allow them to build single family homes, they are required to also provide affordable housing mostly in apartments. Since there is no money in building single-family homes right now these apartments are being built.
So more of this is being constructed to help meet the requirements placed on master developers and requirements for Cities to meet their RHNA numbers.
Samson,
You make some interesting points about demographics, but I think it will have the exact opposite effect. As more high density projects get built, there will be a higher premium paid for open space. Older homes that have nice backyards will only become more valuable. Heck, the structure itself isn’t worth much to begin with and only loses value as it gets older, but the land will always have intrinsic value that should continue to rise as we pack more and more people into this county.
LL,
That is possible, but the effect of the cost of living will play a huge part. The cost to commute to work or shop will have a factor. The cost of putting on a new roof, landscaping a back yard, paying someone to take care of it, the basic costs of maintaining a larger lot will continue to increase.
The days of dad mowing the lawn on Saturday morning has long gone by. People want fast, convenient and close. I know there is a lot of doom and gloom scenarios out there relating to oil. The worst of them is that we will be out by 2050. The bigger picture is the cost we see now is unlikely to retreat by very much and will only go higher.
The rising costs of oil alone will have a huge impact on where people and how people live. I am not saying that these larger lots wont be desirable, but at the current prices or the prices that many think they should be, more and more people will go for the other available products for the reasons I mentioned above.
What will happen and has happened in older neighborhoods, is that people gravitate to more desirable housing, in this case like what I had mentioned before. The creates a situation where more and more of these homes will become rental properties. Neighborhoods with large amounts of rental properties tend to decline quickly mostly due to landlord neglect. As this happens more and more of these large lot neighborhoods will become less desirable places to live.
There of course are exceptions to this, but it has happened all throughout LA County and many counties in CA and it is happening here. With the exception of areas on the coast, it will happen here too it is only a matter of time.
liar loan,
i agree with you.
what you say is true in a few country i travel to (italy, china…)
i got cut off.
anyway it should also be true for orange county as well.
most home owner who pay property tax know this.
the land is what make up 90% of the appraised value.
samson,
i would pay 600k for a 50 years old 4/2 home in fountain valley.
i would not pay 600k for a 1 year old 4/2 home in corona.
Samson,
It doesn’t intuitively make sense that cost of living would rise, while real estate prices would decline. The rising cost of oil and other products is due to weakness in the dollar. The same forces driving higher prices in oil, gold, food, and other commodities will also drive up the price of OC land. People will always gravitate towards more desirable housing, but where I disagree is that high density living will never be as desirable as owning your own spread of land. You can still live close to work, etc…
If more homes become rentals, that implies an influx of investment dollars in the aging suburban communities of OC. That would be another force driving prices higher. The reason old neighborhoods in LA have declined is due to white flight during the 60s and a higher standard of living in OC and the San Fernando Valley. Now that these suburbs are built out, you see a gentrification effect happening in once crummy parts of LA. If the people with money want a higher standard of living, they won’t flee to the open space in other areas like Riverside, they’ll stay here and gentrify even the crummiest of OC neighborhoods eventually. The coastline is too big of a factor for people with money to move inland or into high density housing.
“Thoughtful Says:
May 16th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
Mulli and Alfalfa will take responsibility for me when you take responsibility for rants!”
Why would I want them to do that? Believe it or not, our (yours and mine) politics are the same; it’s your economic views, which are similar to those of Mulli and Alfafa, that I disagree with.
Crystal Balls Says:
May 16th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
“Seems like many of the bears on hear are just shills for the left, hoping to talk down the economy to get Obama elected. I’m sad to say it just might work. We are headed for Jimmy Carter, Part II.”
The biggest shills are those who complain about the other side while their own side commits murder. Right CB? Believe or not, I cringe at the thought of Obama being elected and turning over most of Washington to one party. We’ve seen the damage that one party can do with all that power.
BTW, as much as Democrats don’t want to be compared to Carter, no Republican wants to be compared to Bush (Bushism shall live in infamy). That’s what McCain fears the most.
Actually Carter made more progress toward ME peace than any previous president (Clinton came close)…Egypt and Isreali peace has been long lasting. Don’t knock the Carter years.
The Dems will evolve to become Repubs lite (better security, religious programs but with actual social programs and conservation).
The best part is the average citizen judging the President of the United States. Price, its ok that you and I disagree on politics…it truly is. Did you see that sea of red in the last election? Oh my…and here are the two contenders for the dems this year…Obama just cannot disassociate himself from his USA hating pastor and the shrills of Hillary are nauseating people across America. What a shame…I would love for one politician to stand up and ACTUALLY SAY WHAT THEY ARE FEELING…and not spout the party line.
At least Orange County is republican…otherwise, I would head to Marin and hang with the genius of Sean Penn. What a dolt.
To Lee In Irvine…you are the best…
for the rest of you, sales Volume for April 2004-2008:
4,547 April ‘05
3,276 April ‘06
2,682 April ‘07
2,117 April ‘08
Yeah, I can see the bottom forming now…
sure thing…
Nobody knows when the bottom will arrive…you will see it in your rear-view mirror. It is foolish to try and call it…and it makes no sense for us to continually talk about declines from all time high values. Go back to 1988…add 5% annually and you will come up with a number that is fairly accurate as to what the worthless median should be today. I have done this for my own area of Mission Viejo…and we are within 5% of the number. Two in escrow signs have hit with one closing this week…the activity is heating up…from the paltry levels. Show me 3 consecutive months of price uptick and volume uptick and I will then consider we are moving in that direction. Until then, it is a heartbeat monitor.
I just found out that John Lanser does not own any Real Estate. He is a renter himself. No wonder he keeps pounding the table for the bearish side. I will buy as soon as he buys, because he will start to write Bullish articles once he is in. Poor guy is just like the rest of us, he just wants a piece of the action. His picture sure looks like a prosperous guy !
Roger Rabbit: Very nicely put.
Sound reasoning without ridiculous speculation.
Marcia:
Good post!
What is brouhaha about?
That the sales for April are 2117? Bears will take that number any day.
Aren’t sales numbers supposed to be seasonally up for spring?
Is this what you perma fools call heating up?
BTW, it is funny to see Truthi come out of hibernation at every whiff of perceived good news for bulls.
Thoughtless we know you are jobless due to RE downturn but get a life.
Or at least use another proxy as you perma bulls do all the time.
Quantity of posts does not mean quality.
Not buying it, you have no shame. You took the time to compliment Roger Rabbit, who explained my position to a “t”, yet took a cheap shot at me for saying exactly what he said. Do you know how pathetic that makes you? I bet you don’t. Just like you come in here freaking out every 2 days about things you haven’t read and don’t know jack sh!t about. Lame.
Thoughtful, “bottom 2008″ CLASSIC
Thoughtless not every one lives on this blog as you do.
Everybody else has a real job.
Mulliganville Says:
May 16th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
“Did you see that sea of red in the last election?”
What do you mean by a sea of red? And which election, the presidential or the midterms?
“Oh my…and here are the two contenders for the dems this year…Obama just cannot disassociate himself from his USA hating pastor and the shrills of Hillary are nauseating people across America. What a shame…”
Clinton’s done. Obama hasn’t suffered as much as many thought from the backlash against his former pastor in the primaries. Once general campaigning begins, he’ll have a warchest several times the size of McCain’s. But I still think that color and his perceived elitism (which politician doesn’t have a big ego?) will still be issues. McCain will have to fight through a financial disadvantage, ageism, and his association with Bush’s policies. But hey, you should be glad that they’re both corporatists.
“I would love for one politician to stand up and ACTUALLY SAY WHAT THEY ARE FEELING…and not spout the party line.”
It’s because voters are too afraid of change. They’ll flock to those who promise “a new direction” without making the necessary sacrifices.
“At least Orange County is republican…otherwise, I would head to Marin and hang with the genius of Sean Penn. What a dolt.”
OC is Republican in name only — just as Arnie and Pete Wilson are.
Why do you all care so much about Thoughtful? He sure does work you guys over and into a frenzy every day! I find it hilarious…even more so that you all are convinced that he has multiple handles and you are CERTAIN he is an out of work realtor. Maybe, just maybe the rest of you should gaze into that mirror and wonder why he irks you so much.
Mulli:
My six month old daughter makes funny noises and we find it hilarious.
But Thoughtless is not six month old. So his behaviour is not hilarious.
He and you need to grow up and find real jobs.
Mulliganville Says:
May 16th, 2008 at 6:47 pm
“Nobody knows when the bottom will arrive…you will see it in your rear-view mirror”
The nasdaq, which is able to move instantly compared to the housing market, has still not recovered from its bubble prices, 8 years later.
Technology has always led the way and has been on the cutting edge of future growth, but even this prosperous market couldn’t drift from the fundamentals that supported it. The fundamentals reversed the ridiculous values that were falsely implanted upon it by speculators and returned the market to the realistic values that actually support their price.
The housing market will perform in the same manner, allowing the median income to once again control prices.
We are still 25% away from prices meeting incomes.
In other words, we are not even half way done with this correction.
This market will bottom out over a period of years not seconds or months like mulli thinks it will.
Why do I need to get a life hiflyer? Who needs to grow up here? Ga Ga goo goo.
Thoguhtless is an easy target for most in here simply because she is practicing her realtor deception in front of a crowd.
A manipulator, con artist and a conniver are what her best aspects are.
The dollar sign is her friend and the general population is her victim.
People like her are what got us into this mess in the first place.
People that are going through foreclosures, bankruptcies and short sales are the victims of people like thoughtless.
These nutcases were so over bearing that they actually started believing their own lies and brainwashed themselves into buying overpriced properties.
They have a serious illness that cannot be cured.
I personally like when it posts 15-30 a day.
It’s scared to death of the numbers it’s seeing and knows it needs to work twice as hard to overcome the obvious hurdles it faces.
O.C. homebuying near 8-month high in late April
or
O.C. homebuying nearly 30% lower than April 2007
one cannot ignore that interest rate cuts slowed the housing depreciation phase - with the rate cutting coming to an end it will be very interesting how this will affect the RE price momentum. Me thinks the downturn will continue and spread into the upper income properties by end of 2008.
Mulli:
Anyone who is spending so much time on this blog certainly has no life.
I was referring to Thoughtless, not you.
If you are asking why we are bothered by incessant posting by thoughtless then we have same right to ask you why you are bothered by our posts regarding thoughtless.
I never said I was bothered…I said I found it comical that he gets to so many of you…it is just one persons opinion. So to answer your question…I am not bothered…I am a bit entertained by it quite honestly.
Maybe Thoughtful spends a good bit of time alone…or is very passionate about RE to the point that he engages daily at length. Whatever your passion is, seek it out and enjoy it…his may be debates and RE…and if they are rolled into one locale…presto! You have a happy camper in Thoughtful. Have a great weekend Hiflyer…
And Bill…people that bought beyond their means and made those decisions either as a family or an individual are to blame for their financial situation…not the agents. Do you just trust your stock guy or do you research the company a bit on your own before pulling the trigger? Let’s stop assigning blame for this and realize that a perfect storm brewed with loose lending and above average speculation. We are now over-correcting in the financial markets. It will all work out over time…meanwhile, the good agents out there are still making money. They made money prior to 2005-2007, and they will continue to do so long after…redfin or no redfin.
LOL, all of you that care about sales are just going to catch a falling knife. The April foreclosure numbers are going to be awful, and May is shaping up to be one of the worst ever, even when you include any housing stock, population, or job adjustment. May will be worse than anything ever seen in the 90s.
The notice of trustee sales are through the roof for May, and I bet you Steve Thomas didn’t have 1100 pending sales in the first 9, yes NINE business days of May, because that is around how many NTSs have been filed.
Oh, and BTW, if you are going to compare Trulia data (current), with DataQuick (Or, DataSlow, since you say they are using recordings and not sales from the MLS), then you need to shift the data to the appropriate time frame to compare like data over like data. Otherwise you are skewing the data in the same way you claim the bears are. Of course, statistics 101 is beyond the 6th grade math most bulls failed, then my point will not be taken for what it is worth. But, hey… they like to say the bears skew the data, but when they do it, it is okay. Just like when one Credit Suisse report is right, but the next is wrong, wrong, and more wrong.
BTW, which of the Kool-Aid drinking bulls said that they lived in Orange and there were no foreclosures on his/her street or neighborhood? Firefighter Nick is that you? OMG, you have to be kidding me. I can find a foreclosure in every neighborhood in Orange. Dude, unless you live in Hillcrest, which has two defaults, everything from Old Town to the presidential tract to Maybury Ranch to Crest De Ville to OPA to Serrano Heights, and everything below it has a foreclosure. Either you are clueless, or you just ignore the fact that your neighbors are getting foreclosed on. Find me a neighborhood in Orange that doesn’t have a foreclosure, I dare you, I double dare you.
I really like your blog, it contains a lot of useful information, so I’ll surely be back here more than once. Thanks!
Mulli:
That is called doublespeak. You are clearly bothered by my comments about Thoughtless otherwise you woundn’t come to his defence.
Let me put it in your doublespeak language. ‘I find it comical that you get riled up by my comments about Thoughtless’.
Graphrix “double-dares” you…hello bada bing.
And Hiflyer…just what part of “entertained” vs. bothered do you not get?
entertained: To hold the attention of with something amusing or diverting.
bothered: To disturb or anger, especially by minor irritations; annoy.
Nowhere did I indicate I have been angered or disturbed by the group’s actions regarding Thoughtful and his posts. I just see it through a different lens. If it makes you feel better thinking it riles me up…uh, ok then. Moreover, go through my posts and show me the sentences which indicate my level of anger or being disturbed. You can’t as it is simply not there. Now, go enjoy your weekend like like a good bear.
Graphrix,
Good to see you back.
I also noticed the amount of NOD’s filed in the last 2 weeks have surged beyond the normal amount that usually gets sent out.
Other then the obvious, do you know why the notices are spiking at such high rates again?
Is this the outcome from the alt-A’s that are just now starting to reset?
Something’s going on because there hasn’t been this many notices sent out in such a short period since the bubble burst 2 years ago.
Mulli:
I am beginning to wonder if you are ‘Thoughtless’. Same argumentative style and inclination to split hairs. Both of you will not back down like a 4 year old. Both of you believe quantity of posts reflect quality.
BTW, what is this crap about ‘Go enjoy your weekend like a good bear.’?
“This market will bottom out over a period of years not seconds or months like mulli thinks it will.”
Bill, yet you seem so concerned with what is being debated on these housing blogs when your recovery is years away with hundreds of thousands of dollars to go. That doesn’t make sense to me. You spend way too much time digging up outdated national dooms day revelations. You care wayyyy too much about the whole housing price debate.
Thoughtful: Are you kidding me? You think for a second that what Roger Rabbit stated and the speculation that you had set forth are even close?
Give me a frickin’ break, man!!!
Can you read?
You called a bottom in March - where in Roger’s post did he call an actual bottom?
You called that we’re going to see a buttload of sales - he states that we’ve seen an increase, but still historically piss poor numbers.
Man - you have better start laying off the pills. You are as delerious as EZ Money ever was back in ‘06.
At this point - I have no idea how you could expect anyone to take you seriously
Bill-
I spoke with a banker a couple of months ago who said that the next NODs are going to be because of 2nds (home equity loans); that this will be the next wave of foreclosures.
The problem with 2nds, and, only my opinion here, the reason they are not getting foreclosed on, is because the lender holding the 2nd is underwater. Why force a sale when you won’t get anything back?
As long as the borrowers keep the 1st current, if the home value is under water, they can keep not paying on the 2nd.
So this will be a curious state of affairs.
Anyone have any other insight on this one?
It would not surprise me for the 2nds to be left out in the cold if an owner is strapped for cash. Interesting point on the insolvent bagholder of the 2nd lien. Perhaps this will be a future trend…HELOC’s or 2nds only from the primary lender.
SBD
I see that from the link in your comment above, of the upcoming sales, over 1,000 of them are distressed, which equals 1/2 of the April sales numbers.
How is this representative of a turnaround?
Also, Thomas admits that inventory is not growing, nor is it shrinking. So again, I’m not sure why this is a bottom.
Let’s see where this market goes when the bloom is off the Spring selling season, eh? This is supposed to be the 3 highest months of sales. We’ve just seen that April sales volume is down from April last year by about 20%. I just don’t see that as any kind of bottom forming.
Active Pending
Foreclosures 1,082 671
Short Sales 4,596 514
Here are some good news “snippetts” from a lender friend of mine:
So you’ve heard a lot of mortgage ads on the radio this week. Some offer rates below 5.6 percent (“because we’re nice people too…”) while others “won’t bother” if your rate is above X, no matter if you need cash by the way. Some lenders talk about a “4.5% 30 year fixed refinance strategy” (false) and another one says “you can pay off your loan in 7 years without increasing your current monthly payment (kinda true. LL has this financing product by the way). During the good old days of 2004-2006 when homes sold in hours not months, we saw burped up into this industry the worst loan brokers ever. Sure, you could get a stated, stated 100% financing $1,000,000 loan for a person paid minimum wage, but was it the best for the client? Clearly not, since these loans funded by fly by night operators produced the price suppressed market we’re in today. These opportunists have begun to come back out with mailers, ads, and other gimmicks to again take advantage of your buyers and seller. They whisper fantastic tales of loan rates ultimately too good to be true. To quote The Who*…..“Don’t get fooled again”. Make sure your clients don’t chase rate, but get a program and payment they can live with in the house today, and the one you’re going to sell them when they want to move up.
* you know, the ones whose songs start each of the CSI shows… (the only current cultural reference most will recognize for a band that is as old at the Rolling Stones. But I digress)
Home Buyers, Start Your Engines. By Brett Arends, WSJ On Line. May 15, 2008
If you were thinking of buying a home, start looking. The latest data from the housing market shows that sellers, after months and years in denial, are finally giving in to reality and slashing prices. There is a distance still to go. There may even be a lot to go. But the process, long delayed, is now well underway. The National Association of Realtors on Tuesday released its long-awaited report on prices from the first quarter. The price drops were startling. In many of the former hot spots, from Florida to Nevada to the Californian “Inland Empire,” single-family home prices plunged by 20% to nearly 30% in a year.
Nationwide, the decline from the previous quarter was about 5%, says the NAR. And this, ultimately, is good news. We know prices have to fall. The sooner it happens, the quicker the market can clear. We may not be at that stage known on Wall Street as “capitulation,” but there is more than a whiff of it in the air. Far too many people in the real estate market have spent far too long insisting that denial is just a river in Egypt. They refused to accept there was a bubble on the way up, and refused to admit it even on the way back down. (There’s a few still out there: Last week I got an angry email from a broker who blamed the whole slump on “the media”.) It is simply remarkable how slow this bubble has been to deflate. That, bluntly, is part of the problem. As well…you can imagine what fantasies the sellers were clinging to. “Well, two years ago this home was worth half a million bucks.” The problem: So what? It doesn’t matter what prices were three or two years ago. We were in a bubble. Market psychologists call this “anchoring”, because people anchor their expectations to the past, and it’s a fallacy. Just five years ago, the same home sold for $270,000 and 10 years ago just $200,000. Are those relevant anchor points too? But sellers have at least returned to the bargaining table. If you are in the market for a home, it is time, cautiously, to take a look and, maybe, see if you can play, “Let’s Make A Deal.”
Some good news for a change….. but with important conditions.
Fannie Mae Scraps Declining Markets Policy By Robert Freedman for REALTOR® Magazine.
Fannie Mae will no longer require borrowers to put up an extra 5 percent down payment when purchasing homes in areas deemed “declining markets,” the country’s largest secondary mortgage market company said Friday. Fannie Mae had been hearing concerns from REALTORS® and others for months that its declining-markets policy was bad for the housing market because it discouraged consumers from buying homes in markets hardest-hit by foreclosures. Under the policy change, borrowers can get loans up to 95 percent loan-to-value, even in markets in which prices have been falling. Prior to the change, borrowers could only get loans up to 90 percent to give lenders a 5-percentage-point cushion to protect against possible price declines in the future. The new policy takes effect June First.
Anyone notice what is missing? High Cost Area Jumbo Conforming loans are not part of this policy change. From $1.00 to $417,000 you can get a 95% LTV loan. From $417,000 to $729,600 the maximum is 90%, but lenders will still hit those loans with a 5% reduction in maximum financing so a 90% max is really 85%. The good news is that 95% purchase loans can be had for prices up to $439,900. Anything over a $439,900 price where a buyer wants to put 5% to 10% down will have to close as an FHA purchase. Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae’s competitor in the mortgage market has had this policy in place for about 30 days already.
Rates below assume a 20% down fully documented purchase transaction with a clients FICO score at or above 700. Rate and terms as of 05/16/08 and are subject to change without notice. APR’s have not been calculated.
Conforming 30 Fixed $417,000 and below: 5.625 1.0 point
HCAJ Conforming 30 Fixed $417k to $729k 5.750 1.0 point
Jumbo 30 Fixed $417,000 to $2m 6.875 1.0 point
Standard FHA 30 Fixed $362,000 and below: 5.875 1.0 point
HCAJ FHA 30 Fixed $362k to $729k 6.125 1.0 point
Conforming 5/1 ARM $417,000 and below 4.875 1.0 point
HCAJ Conforming 5/1 ARM $417k to $2m 5.750 1.0 point
( End of report.)
Here are some good news “snippetts” from a lender friend of mine:
So you’ve heard a lot of mortgage ads on the radio this week. Some offer rates below 5.6 percent (“because we’re nice people too…”) while others “won’t bother” if your rate is above X, no matter if you need cash by the way. Some lenders talk about a “4.5% 30 year fixed refinance strategy” (false) and another one says “you can pay off your loan in 7 years without increasing your current monthly payment (kinda true. LL has this financing product by the way). During the good old days of 2004-2006 when homes sold in hours not months, we saw burped up into this industry the worst loan brokers ever. Sure, you could get a stated, stated 100% financing $1,000,000 loan for a person paid minimum wage, but was it the best for the client? Clearly not, since these loans funded by fly by night operators produced the price suppressed market we’re in today. These opportunists have begun to come back out with mailers, ads, and other gimmicks to again take advantage of your buyers and seller. They whisper fantastic tales of loan rates ultimately too good to be true. To quote The Who*…..“Don’t get fooled again”. Make sure your clients don’t chase rate, but get a program and payment they can live with in the house today, and the one you’re going to sell them when they want to move up.
* you know, the ones whose songs start each of the CSI shows… (the only current cultural reference most will recognize for a band that is as old at the Rolling Stones. But I digress)
Home Buyers, Start Your Engines. By Brett Arends, WSJ On Line. May 15, 2008
If you were thinking of buying a home, start looking. The latest data from the housing market shows that sellers, after months and years in denial, are finally giving in to reality and slashing prices. There is a distance still to go. There may even be a lot to go. But the process, long delayed, is now well underway. The National Association of Realtors on Tuesday released its long-awaited report on prices from the first quarter. The price drops were startling. In many of the former hot spots, from Florida to Nevada to the Californian “Inland Empire,” single-family home prices plunged by 20% to nearly 30% in a year.
Nationwide, the decline from the previous quarter was about 5%, says the NAR. And this, ultimately, is good news. We know prices have to fall. The sooner it happens, the quicker the market can clear. We may not be at that stage known on Wall Street as “capitulation,” but there is more than a whiff of it in the air. Far too many people in the real estate market have spent far too long insisting that denial is just a river in Egypt. They refused to accept there was a bubble on the way up, and refused to admit it even on the way back down. (There’s a few still out there: Last week I got an angry email from a broker who blamed the whole slump on “the media”.) It is simply remarkable how slow this bubble has been to deflate. That, bluntly, is part of the problem. As well…you can imagine what fantasies the sellers were clinging to. “Well, two years ago this home was worth half a million bucks.” The problem: So what? It doesn’t matter what prices were three or two years ago. We were in a bubble. Market psychologists call this “anchoring”, because people anchor their expectations to the past, and it’s a fallacy. Just five years ago, the same home sold for $270,000 and 10 years ago just $200,000. Are those relevant anchor points too? But sellers have at least returned to the bargaining table. If you are in the market for a home, it is time, cautiously, to take a look and, maybe, see if you can play, “Let’s Make A Deal.”
Some good news for a change….. but with important conditions.
Fannie Mae Scraps Declining Markets Policy By Robert Freedman for REALTOR® Magazine.
Fannie Mae will no longer require borrowers to put up an extra 5 percent down payment when purchasing homes in areas deemed “declining markets,” the country’s largest secondary mortgage market company said Friday. Fannie Mae had been hearing concerns from REALTORS® and others for months that its declining-markets policy was bad for the housing market because it discouraged consumers from buying homes in markets hardest-hit by foreclosures. Under the policy change, borrowers can get loans up to 95 percent loan-to-value, even in markets in which prices have been falling. Prior to the change, borrowers could only get loans up to 90 percent to give lenders a 5-percentage-point cushion to protect against possible price declines in the future. The new policy takes effect June First.
Anyone notice what is missing? High Cost Area Jumbo Conforming loans are not part of this policy change. From $1.00 to $417,000 you can get a 95% LTV loan. From $417,000 to $729,600 the maximum is 90%, but lenders will still hit those loans with a 5% reduction in maximum financing so a 90% max is really 85%. The good news is that 95% purchase loans can be had for prices up to $439,900. Anything over a $439,900 price where a buyer wants to put 5% to 10% down will have to close as an FHA purchase. Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae’s competitor in the mortgage market has had this policy in place for about 30 days already.
Rates below assume a 20% down fully documented purchase transaction with a clients FICO score at or above 700. Rate and terms as of 05/16/08 and are subject to change without notice. APR’s have not been calculated.
Conforming 30 Fixed $417,000 and below: 5.625 1.0 point
HCAJ Conforming 30 Fixed $417k to $729k 5.750 1.0 point
Jumbo 30 Fixed $417,000 to $2m 6.875 1.0 point
Standard FHA 30 Fixed $362,000 and below: 5.875 1.0 point
HCAJ FHA 30 Fixed $362k to $729k 6.125 1.0 point
Conforming 5/1 ARM $417,000 and below 4.875 1.0 point
HCAJ Conforming 5/1 ARM $417k to $2m 5.750 1.0 point
( End of report.)
Even MORE good news from another lender friend:
On 6/01/08, Fannie Mae will accept up to 97 percent loan-to-value ratios for conventional, conforming mortgages processed through its Desktop Underwriter® (DU®) automated underwriting system, and 95 percent loan-to-value ratios for loans underwritten outside of DU, in all geographic locations in the United States. The new national down payment requirements of 3 or 5 percent will apply to loans for purchase of single-family, primary residences. Down payment requirements will vary for other occupancy, property and transaction types.
Among the changes in response to market conditions, in December 2007 Fannie Mae adopted a “Maximum Financing in Declining Markets Policy” that restricted the loan-to-value ratios on properties in markets where home prices are declining, essentially requiring higher down payments in these markets. The new single national down payment policy announced today will supersede that policy. Fannie Mae will continue to provide support for homebuyers that need down payment assistance, and will continue to allow loans with Community Seconds® up to a maximum 105 percent combined loan-to-value ratio.
The market is turning, and the bears are scurrying for their dens. Have a nice snooze until the next peak, Smokey.
SBD-
Nice to know that Jumbo Conforming is now at 5.75%.
Now if only we could just find buyers that can afford $5K/month in PITI loan payments…
It’s never been about the size of the loan or the down payment, but the ability to afford the monthly payments, FULLY INDEXED.
It still amazes me that this concept is so hard for some on this blog to actually get.
Sigh, one of your story references is already out ot date. The “declining markets policy” has been dropped for jumbos too. Thanks for the Thomas report, it’s a good one. Amazing to see a deep seller’s market for many property types and areas. My own area is considerably under 6 months. And 1 month for REOs? Wow! It’s also great to see the difference in rate between $417,000 and $729,000 is a measly 1/8th of one percent. I wrote a while back that these loans have the exact same risk, and was ridiculed. It’s always an incredible feellng to be proven correct.
FREE DEL TACO FOOD FOR ONE YEAR if you buy my Aliso Viejo condo.
I was right. I was right.