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Help us decipher U.S. homebuilding stats
May 16th, 2008, 7:58 am · 41 Comments · posted by Jon Lansner/O.C. Register columnist
The U.S. Commerce Department’s April construction report said …
Some conflicting signals, no?
April’s firmest trend?
41 Responses to “Help us decipher U.S. homebuilding stats”Leave a Reply |
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May 16th, 2008 at 8:15 am
I don’t think our economy is going to support homebuilding at a time like this.
”Consumer confidence tumbled to its lowest in 28 years this month”
“Consumers’ mood grim as early-80s in May”
“Food prices at all time highs”
“Stocks slip as oil prices push to fresh records”
“$127 a barrel for the first time”
“U.S. Builders Broke Ground on Fewest Houses Since ‘91”
“Construction of U.S. single-family houses in April dropped to the lowest level in 17 years”
The only people thinking our economy is getting better are the delusional and medicated.
May 16th, 2008 at 8:26 am
Well, the increase is just in apartments.
Single family homes new construction actually went down.
Look at how the home builders stocks reacted today. They are down. That should tell you something.
This only means higher inventories for apartments which in turn will mean lower rents. Remember supply and demand?
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080516/economy.html
BTW, oil hit $127 today. More pain for Orange County
and to top it off:
“Consumer Confidence Plunges to 28-Year Low- Reuters ”
I think we have enough bad news for today.
Don’t worry, there will be more bad news on Monday.
May 16th, 2008 at 8:32 am
Oh yeah, Fannie Mae has announcecd that it will loosen guidelines and is offering a 97% loan. Find your own dam link jug head.
May 16th, 2008 at 8:35 am
“Well, the increase is just in apartments”
Not quite.
“Construction of U.S. single-family houses in April dropped to the lowest level in 17 years, even as building of condominiums and townhouses rebounded.”
In other ‘bad news”:
“Fannie Mae to Drop Down Payment Rules in Worst Areas”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aRvoZOztbEcs&refer=home
May 16th, 2008 at 8:36 am
Sorry, I fed the jughead.
May 16th, 2008 at 8:39 am
“Oh yeah, Fannie Mae has announcecd that it will loosen guidelines and is offering a 97% loan.”
and yet, I keep getting lots of emails every single day with “Price Reduced” listings.
Apparently, sellers are not waiting for Fannie Mae to work its magic. Sellers want out as soon as possible. I don’t blame them.
Folks, just drive around this weekend and see for yourself how desperate sellers are.
May 16th, 2008 at 8:41 am
Desperate to keep up with showing appointments.
May 16th, 2008 at 8:42 am
“sellers want out as soon as possible…” Hmmm, only those that need to sell would be selling today, thus the reason for no spike in inventory. national housing stats…blah, blah, blah. Hardly any new construction around here…you know this bubbs. When sellers are realistic about what their home is worth, they sell.
May 16th, 2008 at 8:47 am
Hey folks, read Diana Olick’s analysis of today’s housing starts number. The title of her post should tell you everything you need: “Housing Starts: The Numbers Are A Joke And Not A Funny One”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/24666206
Or you can believe the permabulls here who need to unload their homes asap.
May 16th, 2008 at 8:49 am
Is that hag your wife?
May 16th, 2008 at 8:52 am
Hmm, not unloading anything here except your sanctimonious, incessant rants about how crappy life is in America right now. Please enjoy your newport life Bubbs…most people would give anything to call our coast home…why do you loathe it so much?
May 16th, 2008 at 8:58 am
“Outlook for delinquencies worsens as lower home prices create cycle of increasing defaults”
“Mortgage delinquency on the rise’
According to CNN you realtors might not be telling the truth!
http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/12/real_estate/mortgage_delinquency/?postversion=2008051203
May 16th, 2008 at 8:59 am
“Bubbs…most people would give anything to call our coast home…why do you loathe it so much?”
If you had moved here from Marin County, you would understand.
May 16th, 2008 at 9:01 am
I get it. Thoughtful is a realtor tying to sell houses in crappy RE market. Can’t wait for the market to “bottom out”?
May 16th, 2008 at 9:01 am
Wouldn’t housing starts go up every year from March to April? I can’t imagine anyone in the northern half of the US starting a construction project in the winter.
May 16th, 2008 at 9:14 am
I’ll be cruising NB harbor Sunday. Bubble, I’ll look for your house. Is it the one with the black curtains, the sign outside that says “Repent, sinners. Borrow no More!”, and the ghost ship “Black Pearl” in the slip? Or, is it the one way, way, way up on the hill in the converted Versailles apartments with 600 sf, and a view of the lower Costa Mesa industrial area. Either way, I’ll give you a big wave. It’s impossible to be unhappy in that beautiful bay on a sunny day with the water rippling off the hull. Maybe there will be an Open House at the Ahmanson house. I’ll see you there.
May 16th, 2008 at 9:18 am
So it is more of a political problem or is it physical geography? One of my best friends lives in San Anselmo…he is originally from Houston…loves the beauty, but hates the political vast differences between home and Marin.
May 16th, 2008 at 9:22 am
Hey Mick…the office I work out of sells about $60,000,000 a month in today’s market. In the boom, my understanding is it sold about 90,000,000 but I was not there at the time. Sure volume is down…you guys do not get this aspect of listing and moving homes: the realtors want the sellers to list it for a reasonable price in today’s market. It is the homeowner who has the final say as to price. I have personally heard co-workers tell their clients, “it is your decision, but at this price, movement is not very likely.”
May 16th, 2008 at 9:43 am
“It’s impossible to be unhappy in that beautiful bay on a sunny day with the water rippling off the hull. ”
Obviously, you have never been to Tiburon in Marin County or Bahia Honda in the Florida Keys. You have no idea what clean water and clean air are.
The fact that there are oil wells even in Newport Beach is disgusting.
Don’t even get me started with Huntington Beach. The only city in OC I really like is Laguna Beach but it is too far south for us.
May 16th, 2008 at 9:50 am
Nope, haven’t been there. Gee Bubbs, I was trying to inject a little happiness in the blog and you threw poop on it. Really, you should move. Really.
May 16th, 2008 at 9:51 am
Until you have stood on the western most, northern most tip of Maui, you truly do not know what clean air is. That air has traveled thousands of miles over the vast pacific before it enters your lungs. You can truly feel the difference if you stay there long enough…I was on Maui for the last 9 months.
May 16th, 2008 at 9:54 am
Mulliganville Says: “So it is more of a political problem or is it physical geography?”
Actually, the political views in Marin County are a little too liberal for me but I miss how cool, open minded and educated people are up there. More than anything, I miss the natural beauty. In Marin County, you don’t have to be right next to the ocean to be in a nice neighborhood.
I wish I could say the same about the OC.
May 16th, 2008 at 9:58 am
The tr o ll is on steroids.
May 16th, 2008 at 9:59 am
Mulli, I have been to Maui. Very beautiful. Been on the”road to Hana”. Great stuff.
May 16th, 2008 at 10:04 am
Hana is amazing with the black sand beach at the end…quite impressive. Probably my favorite spot on Maui is the blowhole on the north shore at mile marker 38.5 north of Kapalua. Also at marker 43ish, the olovine pools which were created by the sea pounding the harsh jagged terrain, jumping over the top ridge, and creating pools deep enough to dive in with nothing but lava as the border in each of them…truly incredible.
May 16th, 2008 at 10:04 am
Mulliganville Says: “Until you have stood on the western most, northern most tip of Maui, you truly do not know what clean air is.”
Well, of course. Maui is beautiful as well.
My point was that some people on this blog think that the OC is the center of the universe. The truth is that there are lots of places in the US that are much more beautiful than the OC without the high real estate prices.
I was checking online the other day and was surprised to see that home prices in Marin County are pretty reasonable compared to the OC and keep in mind that Marin is just 12 miles from downtown SF with tons of high paying jobs.
May 16th, 2008 at 10:08 am
National Bubble,
I lived in NC for 3 years and I tell you what ,you can take your beauty and air and keep the humidity. I loathed the summers there because of the humidity. The weather here is the best. By the way I love the mountains here in CA and hated the flatland that was eastern NC. The whole east coast and the south sucks during the summer months. Not to mention much colder during the winters.
Thats why I so don’t want to leave the OC or Socal region in general.
May 16th, 2008 at 10:11 am
VoiceofReason Says:
“Mulli, I have been to Maui. Very beautiful. Been on the”road to Hana”.
When we did the “road to Hana”, we made the mistake of stopping everywhere on the way there and we got to the very end by 8PM. Then driving back to Lahaina on that winding road in the middle of the night was a bit scary. Other than that, the area is gorgeous.
May 16th, 2008 at 10:11 am
i think the beaches, the amazing summer weather, and the topography keep bringing people here over and over again. The likes of newport, laguna beach all the way to san clemente ranks pretty high on most peoples “desirable” spots to lay their head at night. NoCal and SoCal are completely different birds. It does sadden me that you call Newport your home, yet you appear pretty unhappy with it. My friend I spoke of earlier, he bought for $800,000 in 2004. Probably worth about 1 million today. His home is on a bluff with adequate views, but nothing crazy. The home is about 1800 s.f. I do not see that as reasonable pricing compared to NB. Do you?
May 16th, 2008 at 10:15 am
excuse my last post I thought you were talking about some place else.
May 16th, 2008 at 10:33 am
Mulliganville Says: “The home is about 1800 s.f. I do not see that as reasonable pricing compared to NB. Do you?”
Well, you let me know if you can find waterfront like this for under 1.5 million in Newport Beach?
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Mill-Valley/171-Stanford-Ave-94941/home/611853/bareis-20803416
or this
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Corte-Madera/63-Lakeside-Dr-94925/home/1070435
Again, keep in mind that Marin County has the highest income per capita in California so home prices should be much higher than ours.
May 16th, 2008 at 10:43 am
“The truth is that there are lots of places in the US that are much more beautiful than the OC without the high real estate prices.”
Not really. Other beautiful places? Definitely, but there almost always expensive too.
May 16th, 2008 at 10:44 am
You mean that $611 per square foot three story condo?
May 16th, 2008 at 10:47 am
The tiny million dollar box on a reservoir sounds like a smokin’ deal too. I wonder why the square footage is missing?
May 16th, 2008 at 10:51 am
I like the first home Bubbs…but it is 1300 s.f. Precisely the size home which just does not work for most, yet they want $611 per foot. If you Redfin the 92660, the average asking price per foot is $681…about 10% higher than your example. So I dove a bit deeper into your Redfin example…seems that zip avg. asking price is $757 per foot, or about 10% higher than 92660.
I checked 92657 as well, and some bozo realtor has 1 s.f. listed as the livable space on one of the listings, so Redfin is calculating incorrectly, but if you do the math, it comes to about $545 per foot up to prices of $3,000,000.
In my opinion Bubbs, it appears we have two separate playgrounds for the wealthy…goes back to which location you prefer. But neither of them are deals…but my bet is each hold values very well moving forward out of the credit crisis.
May 16th, 2008 at 10:52 am
Hey National Monkey Bone, do you get many of those travel flyers in the mail?
May 16th, 2008 at 11:11 am
housing numbers today were a joke.. and not the
funny kind either hey thoughtless read this then take
your medication like a good little girl….
http://www.cnbc.com/id/24666206
May 16th, 2008 at 11:21 am
more national housing blah blah blah…not really concerned about boise, flynt, dallas, little rock, atlanta, brownsville, nashville, or any other locale. It is all about credit…not housing…it was always a lending boom, never a housing boom. Lenders will lend again one day…just gonna take some time to work out of…
May 16th, 2008 at 11:21 am
That hag? Her argument is about adding to supply, which isn’t relevent everywhere. And she is just as wrong as your twin bubble about multifamily being only apartments. Even if it were apartments (which it is not) these are jobs, jobs, jobs.
May 16th, 2008 at 11:58 am
Diana Olick was Dan Rathers protoge shall we say a CBS. She’s a political hack reporter with an ax to grind cause her boss got caught with his hand in the Microsoft Font cookie jar when he tried to pass off the phoney letter about Bush being AWOL. All she gives a fig about is that the economy look as bad as she can make it going into the election. And for someone who takes as gosepel every Case Shiller number that crosses her desk, she sure clamed up about Karl Case’ announcement the other day.
May 16th, 2008 at 8:02 pm
Bubble, You should move somewhere more desireable. You are truly a misreable person. Foretunately your misery isn’t contagious.