Here's recent history of the Fed’s policy committee and its Fed Funds rate. Next Fed decision is June 24/25.
It’s ‘Year of the flush’ for Realtors
May 2nd, 2008, 11:56 am · 22 Comments · posted by Jeff Collins
At the Pacific West Association of Realtors expo in Anaheim today, staff wore lifeguard T-shirts. Nancy Gilmore, CEO of the Anaheim-based group, said the association won’t perform CPR on any agents whose careers are on life support, but thought the metaphor apt.
“They come to us because we rescue them,” Gilmore said, explaining that Realtors are looking for tools and education about surviving tough times. “When times get bad, they come to the association.”
This year’s expo (an event at the Disney Hotel that drew nearly 2,000 agents, brokers and mortgage brokers from throughout the region) started off with motivational real estate coach Tom Ferry of Newport Beach, who told agents, “There’s no question this market is going to remain the same for a long time.” He added:
“It’s the year of the flush. Either your hand is on the lever or it’s on the bowl, and you’re going down.”
Most agents are upbeat, even though many have seen their incomes fall after 30 consecutive months of declining home sales. Still, many are looking for answers.
“The mood here is really searching for what do we do in this market. What do I have to do to keep my success on a roll? What do I have to do to keep my past income?” said Trinidad Estrada, 65 of American Signature Funding in Brea, who said he’s seen it all after three decades in the business.
Timmy Do, a mortgage officer and agent with Performance Plus Realty Group in Tustin, said his income in 2007 was half what it was in 2006.
“There are a lot of people who are out of the business, doing it part-time,” Do said. “I know two agents, two friends of mine, who are now doing other things.”
May 2nd, 2008 at 12:07 pm
Kris,
If you are looking for Schadenfreude buy one of those shirts and sneak into this……
May 2nd, 2008 at 12:16 pm
But everyone is buying homes and it’s picking up so there should be tons of job opps! Right?
May 2nd, 2008 at 12:24 pm
Hmmm, Ballooning Seniors and The Year of the Flush. I see a theme developing here……………….
May 2nd, 2008 at 12:28 pm
I love the knock on realtors…they are all evil and “conned”–somehow–MILLIONS of people into buying homes from 2002-2006 the agreeable bubble period. What is that saying? A sucker is born every 15 minutes?
There are unethical doctors, lawyers, teachers, professors (tenure-what a ridiculous aspect of that industry), judges, policeman…and yes, realtors too. Any problem with doctors ordering tests to inflate medicare payments? Of course…so again, I think this comes down to jealousy at what some of these realtors pulled down during this time.
You cannot talk someone into spending $1,000,000 plus or even $500,000 unless THAT IS WHAT THEY WANT TO DO.
So it seems most of you believe they are over-compensated for facilitating these transactions, as that is what most of you believe they do…just facilitate.
Realtor Dave: could you please provide an example of the typical length of a relationship with one of your clients, the various responsibilities you have with respect to them, and the amount of “tire-kicking” that occurs before a sale is made?
May 2nd, 2008 at 12:39 pm
From CNN:
“Nearly half - 47% - of respondents said the most worrisome economic problem is inflation, more than doubling the number who said the housing crisis was the top concern. Only 19% said the housing was their biggest economic concern, and 13% said it was unemployment that worried them the most”
If more folks are concerned about inflation than housing, guess what? Cut the safety-line on housing and let it drop, because you can’t save both.
May 2nd, 2008 at 12:48 pm
lol, VoiceofReason.
Actually, a lot of my colleagues should have been flushed years ago, when they were putting trusting buyers into insane subprime loans with low teaser rates, but that ’s another story. (See “How we got into this mess.”)
I’ve been through this cycle at least five times, and each one’s unique. 18% interest was pretty scary back in 1980-81, as were massive layoffs and loss of high paying defense jobs in 1991-95.
So I guess we’ll eventually get through a massive nationwide price correction combined with massive lending problems, although it will take a while (”How low will prices go?“).
But I’ve got to tell Trinidad that she’s just not going to make as much income as she’s used to, unless she lands an REO account. My experience is during the down times you’ve got to work three times as hard for maybe half the income.
So far, however, the sun has continued to come up every morning.
And here in the OC, most mornings are still gorgeous!
May 2nd, 2008 at 1:00 pm
Dave..I’m sure that’s not the answer Mulli was looking for..just as I’m sure he’ll deny it. I’ll use a realtor but that realtor won’t use me. Too many times have I had realtors as sales people instead of people looking out for my best interests. In my case, I’ll use the realtor my parents used nearly 20 years ago and continues to be family friend but only for advisement on the offer, counters and paper work. I’ll do all my own foot work, neighborhood, taxes etc. Also, I have my own appraiser, contractor, geologist/soils expert and landscaper to help in my decision making process.
May 2nd, 2008 at 1:11 pm
Mulliganville,
“You cannot talk someone into spending $1,000,000 plus or even $500,000 unless THAT IS WHAT THEY WANT TO DO.”
You have to remember that this is not an all cash purchase and many of the buyers put absolutely nothing down - I wouldn’t consider that a tough sale, especially in times where your (potential) client believes that home prices will appreciate and the RE “Professional” tells them that it will never ever go down again here in the OC because it’s different.
May 2nd, 2008 at 1:37 pm
Mulli, I agree with your quote 100%
“they are all evil and “conned”–somehow–MILLIONS of people into buying homes from 2002-2006 the agreeable bubble period. What is that saying? A sucker is born every 15 minutes? ” Although you left out “vile and despicable”.
May 2nd, 2008 at 2:45 pm
Used house sales people have really been hit by a double wammy.
The housing market is imploding, and starbucks is imploding. Gosh, they can really contribute to society, and go out and pick fruits and veggis, now that farms are having trouble gettting enough labor to complete there harvest. Might even lower the price of some food stuffs. Go ahead real estate geniuses; take one for the team!
May 2nd, 2008 at 2:54 pm
The lenders, realtors and suckered buyers are all to blame. The trio of greed and foolishness!!!
May 2nd, 2008 at 4:06 pm
Someone jumped off a balcony at this hotel today….
May 2nd, 2008 at 4:52 pm
I heard on the radio that someone committed suicide today by jumping off the Disneyland Hotel. Was it a despondent realtor?
May 2nd, 2008 at 6:30 pm
Awgee,
LoL. I wondered the same thing.
May 2nd, 2008 at 6:35 pm
There have been an incredible number of public suicides being reported. Its like the great depression.
May 2nd, 2008 at 7:29 pm
I hear something like that and I wonder if he had a family.
May 2nd, 2008 at 9:47 pm
Awgee,
What else was going on at the DL hotel today?
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/anaheim-hotel-martinez-2032877-room-suicide
\”A man believed to be in his 30s or 40s apparently jumped to his death today from the 14th floor of the Disneyland Hotel’s Wonder Tower, authorities said.
The man was in town on business and was staying in a room with a business associate; the business associate was in the room when the man jumped, Martinez said. \”
What business was going on at the DL hotel today? Oh yeah. A realtor convention.
Which makes me glad because I was concerned Truthiness had done something rash. Seek help girl.”
May 3rd, 2008 at 10:17 am
I have to defend the Realtors, since I have a great agent. Don\’t blame the Realtors, blame yourself. If your stupid or greedy enough (much of this was caused by the lure of making easy money in real estate) to believe what some stranger tells you who attended a weekend class and passed a 10th grade level exam, you\’re the idiot. Instead of worrying about getting a kickback on a commission (you get what you pay for), try seeking out an agent who has experience and constistent staying power in the markets they serve, and rank highly in the area they serve. If you think an agent has expertise outside of a 5 mile radius from where most their business occurs, your sadly mistaken. The best agents focus on a specific area and know it inside and out; they\’ve seen nearly every home that\’s sold in that area for the years; they know the differences in upgrades; lot sizes, floorplans; the most desirable locations etc., because they\’ve seen all the homes–in otherwords they actually work and specialize. If you believe somebody has the expertise to represent you anywhere you\’re looking, or just because they studied and passed an exam in one week, you\’re the fool. It\’s your money to invest in a home, take the time to interview an agent and tell them to printout all the homes they\’ve sold in the last year that shows them as the listing or selling agent or look for a referral. The best agents are full-time who are completely committed to what they do; rarely are they your friend or your mortgage broker who can write it up for you and give you money back, or some 25 year old at Redfin has zero practical experience. It\’s just like every other business out there, you need to find the best if you want to minimize problems later.
May 3rd, 2008 at 1:03 pm
Contrarian,
Right on the money! God bless you! The voice of experience speaks.
BUYERS OR SELLERS, IF YOU’RE LOOKING FOR A REAL ESTATE AGENT, COPY, PASTE, AND FOLLOW CONTRARIAN’S ADVICE ABOVE!
You might also want to check out my “Top five ways NOT to pick a listing agent.”
Reason # 1 will get you almost every time, and most agents know it!
Part of the problem with agents is it’s way too easy to get a real estate license in this state. A broker’s license too, for that matter, although C.A.R. is trying to change that & actually had a bill passed last year requiring two years experience to be a broker–but Arnold vetoed it.
Another part of the problem is that most brokers don’t supervise their agents enough, especially newer agents.
And another problem is the myth promoted by CAR and NAR that being a Realtor guarantees integrity and competence. The truth is, here in OC about 99% of active agents are Realtors. I wouldn’t work with an agent who wasn’t a Realtor, but just choosing a Realtor in no way guarantees you a competent agent for your particular needs.
May 3rd, 2008 at 11:50 pm
Dave, Dave, Dave,,, (AKA Contrarian)
Stop the blatant plea for business…….your pandering is not making you look the least bit professional.
Most of the potential buyers already know the area they want to buy in. They learned this w/o a realtor.
Most of the people know enough to drive in their OWN CAR through the area of interest. If there is a house for sale — go home and look it up on the internet.
Now, the next step is up to them.
The listing agent has the potential to kick back a major (3 plus) percentage of the commission being charged to the seller……or one of the online realtors such as redfin or zip will kick back an advertised amount.
It’s a new day. The keys to the information that the MLS and it’s member realtors controlled are long gone.
The info and “expertise” is out there and available to all — at much less than the old 6 percent.
My guess….the days of the listing agent are ending as we speak.
List on line and let an intermediary fill out the forms — most of the work is done through escrow — always has been.
My goodness….you are in the business ……it is the most inefficient industry in existence……hours and hours on end are wasted by people hoping to “sell” or list a home a month……meetings and meetings, sales training, caravans and mail-outs, door- hangings, and open houses, leased luxury cars, soft music and bright lights ……….it is a truly pathetic business model in need of a major revision.
My goodness, one has a house to sell…..put it out there….no one in their right mind would suggest that is worth 6% of the sales price.
No one but a realtor.
You want to buy a house….no one in their right mind would give 6% or 3% of the price of that home for someone to fill out the paperwork. — Now you and I know, there are situations and complications that arise….but you and I know that those complications could be resolved for far less than the $48,000 commission involved in the sale of a 600K house……..If not…walk.
May 4th, 2008 at 1:37 pm
It may sound cynic from Vancouver realtors, who have their happy times in Canada, but “some get called, some get saved”. US realtors made big money some time ago, now are their incomes cut. It’s natural. It’s business. It’s real estate. True realtor can’t be surprised and weep somewhere in the corner, how the world is unfair….
May 5th, 2008 at 10:22 am
Thought you’d be interested to know that the term REALTOR® has been trademarked by the National Association of REALTORS®. Therefore the ® symbol is required when publishing the word REALTOR® . Since you all publish stories about REALTORS® just about every other day I thought this would be a helpful tidbit of info and a good test to ensure you are reading your comment posts.
Ciao,