Here's recent history of the Fed’s policy committee and its Fed Funds rate. Next Fed decision is June 24/25.
O.C. home listings opened ‘08 at 2.8-year supply
April 25th, 2008, 6:01 pm · 113 Comments · posted by Jeff Collins
The California Association of Realtors reports that Orange County’s supply of houses for sale rose in January to an all-time high of 33.4 months, equivalent to requiring 2.8 years to sell all the existing single-family homes on the market at the start of the year.
February and March figures haven’t been compiled for O.C. yet, the association said. Statewide, the supply of house listings peaked in January at 16.8 months, then declined to 14.3 months in February and 11.6 months in March.
The association’s inventory estimate is determined by dividing the total number of houses in the multiple listing service by total sales that month. The resulting figure is the theoretical time it would take to sell all the homes at the current sales pace. (Fresher data from show inventory improvement. CLICK HERE!)
Meanwhile, last month’s median house price fell in Orange County to $591,540, down by 16.3% (the largest percentage drop in the state association’s records). That’s also down nearly 21% off from the peak median price ($747,260) for an O.C. house set in April 2007. The number of houses sold last month fell 36.6% from March 2007.
Statewide, the median price — or price at the midpoint of all sales –was $413,980, down 29% from March 2007, the association reported. Sales fell 24.5% to an annualized, seasonally adjusted rate of 318,830 homes a year.
Here are the March median home prices and sales changes for Orange County and other metro areas in the region:
| Area | Median Price | Price vs. ‘07 | Sales vs. ‘07 |
|---|---|---|---|
| O.C. | $591,460 | -16.3% | -36.6% |
| L.A. | $431,950 | -25.6% | -37.6% |
| Palm Springs | $311,540 | -20.1% | -27.1% |
| Inland Empire | $276,630 | -29.8% | -3.9% |
| San Diego | $447,500 | -26.1% | -29.9% |
| Ventura | $504,210 | -25.0% | -38.5% |
April 25th, 2008 at 6:16 pm
Something here does not compute. OC has been clipping along at about 1400 sales per month, a paltry total. There are 15,000 homes on the market…roughly. What are we missing here? 2.8 years? That number is total garbage.
April 25th, 2008 at 6:27 pm
mully: reality is not total garbage, it is what it is. why must you battle with it?
April 25th, 2008 at 6:30 pm
Shiny, just going by lansners numbers for, oh i dont know, about a year or so now. Always been about 1400 per month, and the amount of available inventory has been around 15,000-17,000. The numbers just do not add up.
April 25th, 2008 at 6:35 pm
Look at the bright side. At least, the OC is breaking all kinds of housing records. The only problem is that these are all depression-like records.. Nothing to be proud of.
April 25th, 2008 at 6:37 pm
LOL, LMAO…..
for sellers who are not a bank………
turn the lights down low……… back the cinnamon cookies…… play the soft music……… make sure everything is tidy top to bottom…….. and then wait 2.8 years LMAO……. LOL@ribsplitter
April 25th, 2008 at 6:39 pm
Tune in next week for:
“I thought Steve Thomas’ report put the supply at less than 6 months and falling (and he’s a realtor!)? I’m so confused.”
or
“Thoughtful is crazy, and if somebody knows her real identity, they should contact the Mental Health Association of Orange County at 714-547-7559 before she hurts herself once she reads this.”
http://www.mhaoc.org/
April 25th, 2008 at 6:40 pm
mully: Lansner didn’t come up with those numbers, the “California Association of Realtors” did. If anything, I would guess the true numbers are much worse given the source.
As I said to on this blog a while back, I believe in being optimistic, the good ol’ saying the glass is half-full vs half-empty and whatnot. But the glass is empty this time, it really is. Indeed, you need negative numbers to say how much water the glass is holding now. But to each his own, if you think the emperor is wearing clothes… Like they say, you can lead a horse to water but you can’t make him drink and so goes the sad plight of our permabulls.
April 25th, 2008 at 6:40 pm
Here is the correct link
http://tinyurl.com/6l9sks
April 25th, 2008 at 7:17 pm
April 25th, 2008 at 7:24 pm
Wow talk about chasing the market down!
55 Dartmouth LN Coto De Caza, CA 92679
Listing Price History
Oct 02, 2007 $850,000
Oct 31, 2007 $800,000
Nov 08, 2007 $790,000
Nov 13, 2007 $775,000
Nov 21, 2007 $749,000
Nov 27, 2007 $724,900
Dec 08, 2007 $714,900
Jan 03, 2008 $689,900
Jan 16, 2008 $669,000
Jan 18, 2008 $599,900
Jan 19, 2008 $550,000
Feb 13, 2008 $614,900
Mar 21, 2008 $615,000
Mar 28, 2008 $599,000
Apr 08, 2008 $569,000
Apr 10, 2008 $549,000
Apr 16, 2008 $560,000
April 25th, 2008 at 7:34 pm
Everytime we get a little good news like the Steve Thomas report, I swear its followed up by much more bad news to the contrary. The news is still to the downside and seems to continue to get worse.
We have a ways to go as the market is forced to adjust.
April 25th, 2008 at 7:41 pm
This means it’s the bottom, right? This time, right? Or was that last week? Steve Thomas says things are turning around, right? Or was that last week?
My watch is broken, and it was right twice today. I am sure the bottom callers will be right at least once this decade … or next.
April 25th, 2008 at 7:49 pm
Hey, all you rocket scientists: this is data from January!
April 25th, 2008 at 7:49 pm
Shiny, the CAR came up with the numbers you see here as well.
Here is one local realtor that is pulling from the MLS…
http://www.orangecountyhometeam.com/newsletter.asp
6.5 months or 33 months? Let’s say the truth lies in the middle…
April 25th, 2008 at 7:52 pm
uh oh…there is “mulliganful” posting at the same time…damn where is rants when you need him…cannot post at the same time if we are the same person…right pdu? hehehe…love blowing that theory of yours right out of the water.
April 25th, 2008 at 7:54 pm
Mulli, the CAR number assumes a lot, including that inventory will pile up at a particular rate. The assume little progress in chipping away at inventory, which is a fatal flaw.
April 25th, 2008 at 8:07 pm
Thoughtful…I agree with you…I am sure that is a shock to the “permailovebadnewsbears.” I think it is irresponsible to for Lansner to put these outlandish numbers from 3 months ago as an indicator as to what is happening. I think the YOY numbers for April will be an improvement. Only time will tell.
April 25th, 2008 at 8:15 pm
Bubbs, was that another RE ad for Remax on your site? You have no shame do you…
April 25th, 2008 at 8:45 pm
Come on folks. While the numbers may be from January, homes have hardly been flying off the shelves in the meantime. Even with some improvement if any there has been, where does that leave us if the above stats are accurate? 2.2 years supply? If so, I guess everything is now fine and dandy.
April 25th, 2008 at 9:03 pm
Starting in 06, I am not sure if the curve is parabolic or exponential………..but it doesn’t look good for people trying to sell homes, or the people in the real estate industry that depend on home sales for income….
April 25th, 2008 at 9:33 pm
Mulligan,
Not hard to post different posts at the same time.
April 25th, 2008 at 9:33 pm
Is it? :))
April 25th, 2008 at 9:34 pm
It makes total sense that in the last three weeks YoY numbers have rocketed from -42% to positive territory. Not.
The numbers would be outlandish if they weren’t true!
April 25th, 2008 at 10:07 pm
Why the worst may be over
The credit crunch may be behind us and earnings have been better than expected. That could lead to happier times if the Fed starts focusing on inflation.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/04/25/markets/thebuzz/index.htm?postversion=2008042511
April 25th, 2008 at 10:12 pm
“worst is over”..”bottom is here”..whatever you say Watts…hahahahhaha
Look kids, it’s simple…SUPPLY and DEMAND = PRICE
April 25th, 2008 at 10:25 pm
# Thoughtful Says:
“September 2001 median = $300,000
April 2008 median = $502,500
Difference = $202,500
Percentage increase = 67.5%”
# Thoughtful Says:
“And the “median”? Still a joke. Anyone who is FOOLISH enough to hang their hat on a median at this time is a numbskull!”
—
Consistency?
Thoughtful, you speak out both sides …. spewing contradicting positions.
Maybe just to incite?
That might be giving you more credit than due.
You won’t respond to this, because it would require that you think.
April 25th, 2008 at 10:27 pm
The above figures are for the entire state. Here, to refresh your memories, is what Steven Thomas posted about 2 weeks ago - FAR more up to date than CAR’s figures:
If you listen to or read all the recent reports regarding “sold” statistics for March, one would quickly come to the conclusion that the real estate market is continuing to sputter along at a slow pace. However, this could not be further from the truth. Sold activity is a snapshot of the past, about a month and a half in the past to be precise. So, March “sold” statistics are really a snapshot of the second half of January through the first half of February. The market did improve during that time but was still extremely anemic as demand, a snapshot of the prior 30 days of escrow activity, grew from 989 escrows in mid-January to 1,630 escrows in mid-February, a gain of 641 escrows. Since then demand has continuously grown to its current height of 2,374 escrows. Last year at this time demand was at 1,925 escrows, 449 fewer than today. This recent escrow activity will translate to sold data reported in the months to come. The big story will be that the year over year sold statistics will be better for the first time since the Autumn of 2005. Demand already crossed that threshold two weeks ago. Some skeptics attempt to discount the uptick in demand, claiming that many will fall out of escrow. That is simply not statistically true. The data does not support their claim. Yes, some escrows do fall out; however, the snapshot of 30 day escrow activity misses some escrows that have already closed because they were less than 30 day escrows. The average escrow is about 45 days, but we do have one, two and three week escrows that won’t show up in the data for long. So, the less than 30 day escrows offset most escrows that fall out. The bottom line: the market is improving. Market time has dropped from 15.6 months at the beginning of the year to 6.55 months today, not as deep of a buyer’s market. The active inventory has not changed much this year and has actually dropped by 61 homes over the past month.
Is was then, and will continue to be, good news for Orange County - ESPECIALLY when the YOY figures, for each month for the rest of the year show higher numbers of CLOSED escrows, every month.
The bottom is here. There’s no need to panic - prices aren’t going up much, anytime soon - they’re just not going down any more this year. I’ve been accurately telling you this since about Feb 1st.
April 25th, 2008 at 10:52 pm
Don’t forget the phantom inventory. The stuff that needs to sell in the near future, but is not yet on the MLS. Many people and banks took those homes off until the spring selling season. Expect inventory to explode very soon This is getting scary, and I’m a housing bear. I should be enjoying this, but I never thought it would be this bad, this fast. . Very, Very Scary. It’s coming!
April 25th, 2008 at 11:00 pm
2.8 years of supply– I demand a recount
wheres steve thomas get him on the phone–
this is just another ploy by the bleeding heart
liberal media to spew negative propaganda–
anything to sell newspapers right blogger
well I for one will not stand for it anymore
as of today I’m cancelling my subscription
to the register
April 25th, 2008 at 11:04 pm
blackbox Says:
April 25th, 2008 at 10:52 pm
Don’t forget the phantom inventory. The stuff that needs to sell in the near future, but is not yet on the MLS. Many people and banks took those homes off until the spring selling season. Expect inventory to explode very soon This is getting scary, and I’m a housing bear. I should be enjoying this, but I never thought it would be this bad, this fast. . Very, Very Scary. It’s coming!
Gimme a break. We are almost in May. Don’t you think the people who were planning on listing in the spring have already listed? What are they waiting for?? Face it. Inventory is flat and will be falling by the summer. The recent inventory trend is not your friend. And you don’t need to quote the YOY Inventory. That is old news. Look at the Month to month trend from the begining of the credit crunch to now.
April 26th, 2008 at 12:38 am
I just went over to Steven Thomas blog. In August he was telling buyers that “this is the perfect time to buy, etc.”
The perfect time to lose 100k, that is.
He’s turned (what may be) the usual yearly bump into…
oh, why am I even bothering with this…
He ought not be on anyone’s credible analysis list.
April 26th, 2008 at 6:53 am
pdu, you crack me up! The ONLY reason I used that median analysis was to show that Lee’s “250% increase” was a joke! It’s good to have such devoted fans as yourself though!
April 26th, 2008 at 6:58 am
pdu, I used those median numbers to show that Lee’s claim of a “250% increase” was a fantasy. This blog is so funny!
April 26th, 2008 at 7:00 am
Sorry to double up. Strange software here.
April 26th, 2008 at 7:53 am
Hey Truthiness,
Did you read Jon’s column today? Check the last sentence of the last paragraph.
Even he knows you need lithium. Seek help NOW.
April 26th, 2008 at 8:08 am
What is the math they usually use? Over 8 month supply= downward pressure on prices? What does 2 years mean? I bet nobody wants to figure that one out!
April 26th, 2008 at 9:33 am
I said it before, I will say it again. Housing cycles start on the east coast and work their way west. Always have, always will. They start their rise in Boston and New York, and then follow west. When prices bust, it starts in the same place and works west. Housing prices are now dropping full force in the West. States like California, Nevada, and Arizona are really just beginning their crash. And since land availability and speculation drove prices higher out here, they will now drop faster and farther. I’m not surprised by these inventory numbers. And the great OC is NOT immune. Life here isn’t all that wonderful.
April 26th, 2008 at 10:05 am
seems like lots of the RE folks are starting to agree with reality.
I think it would be in their interest to help this market correct asap, that way they can get back to selling houses.
Knowing the RE industry, the numbers are probably alot worse. Just take a look at that chart. It doesn’t look good.
Trying to call the bottom is risky and insane.
“Don’t Believe the Hype”
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/04/tracking-nar-sp.html
April 26th, 2008 at 10:22 am
Whew…thank pdu…glad you can get two windows going simultaneously and post 2 entries at the same time. Wait…am I thoughtful here or mulli…this is SOOO confusing. I love your conspiracy theory…truly entertaining. BTW, thoughtful is hammering you guys when you go at him, I mean me, on a daily basis. The ref would have stopped it a long time ago.
April 26th, 2008 at 10:28 am
coco…these are numbers from January! We are almost in May…this report is completely baseless and void of any useful information whatsoever. Our inventory on a monthly basis has been around 15,000 for the entire county, with about 1300-1500 sales monthly, a paltry figure based on history. It is only due to the credit crunch, and once that works itself out, sales should return to normal levels. Growth in values will be slow for the near future. I missed the part of Manhattan RE slumping…
April 26th, 2008 at 10:33 am
Who wrote the numbers above are state numbers? The title specifically states: “O.C. home listings opened ‘08 at 2.8-year supply”
Also, I beleive it was Thoughtful that stated several times that median price for SFR in OC is down only 3% from peak to trough? Are you kidding me? I may not have it fully correct - but that 3% keeps ringing in my head as being quite funny.
As for sales volume numbers: I read what the bulls stated here and the numbers released for the same month do not jive.
I also have read some bulls state that the bottom is here - is that bottom in pricing only? Do you have any professional/expert opinions you can quote to back up your claims? People that are noteworthy of course that have not been wrong recently?
What about job numbers? What about rates?
As for stating OC prices are not dropping any further - you have got to be kidding me. You absolutely have no proof and as a matter of fact, prices are still coming down. Where in the world is the proof that prices have stopped coming down. The proof that they are still declining comes from agents themselves - which everyone should be doing - discussing with agents - pick a few homes in an area you’re interested in - do your research - look at comps. HOMES ARE NOT SELLING FOR WHAT RECENT COMPS SOLD AT - THEY ARE SELLING FOR LESS!!!
All this BS talk above is quite frustrating to read.
It is time however, to put in those low-ball offers. Sellers are accepting them - you just need to submit them. You’d be surprised as to some of the deals we’ve been seeing.
Like I said before, the bulls comments here are very similar to those stated months ago - all turned out to be untrue. But they still come back to spew their incredible jibberish. Shockg’s comments that inventory will no longer increase - hmmmmm - I wonder if he/she will concede if this turns out to be untrue in the coming months.
Note how bears do not need to predict anything at this point - almost every headline is negative in nature based on data. The bulls, however, are throwing every prediction out there - none of which will be conceded when proven wrong. Even those in the public eye - stating that the time to buy was last summer - don’t these so-called professionals have any self-respect and dignity to note when they are wrong?
Its all about risk threshold and don’t allow the bulls on this blog to muddy the water for you to determine if now is a good time to buy for you. These guys are desparate - in one way or another - they are absolutely desparate. I come back to this blog maybe three to four times a week - just to see the same folks spewing the same garbage on an almost hourly basis. Just about everything they state is speculative, unfounded and will soon be proven wrong again. The best part - not one will concede when it occurs - they’ll just change their handle and start over again.
April 26th, 2008 at 10:41 am
NBI,
We have never had a 2.8 year supply of housing here…for you to believe this ridiculous headline tells me people are sheeple. You know what our inventory has been…you know the monthly sales numbers…do some math kid. Geez…how gullible are you?
April 26th, 2008 at 10:44 am
Gee, whodathunkit, another error-filled and long-winded rant from not buying it. Nooooo, the headlines are NOT all negative. And yesssssssssss, new sfr’s are off 3% YOY. Live with it!
April 26th, 2008 at 10:46 am
And shockg appears to be CORRECT in his assessment that seller’s haven’t flooded the market as expected. Geesh, the nerve.
April 26th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
For what their worth the median and inventory numbers look pretty bad but do tell a story, it just depends on which one you choose hear.
From the street for most of us living a regular life in the OC things look pretty bad and its been a hard adjustment.
Just try listing your house against the current market for last years price and you will be out sized, out classed, out priced and over looked.
Finding a willing buyer who has what it takes is another problem that both sellers and lenders are faced with.
Who are they, where are they and why won’t they buy, ‘yet’.
April 26th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
Here is a more accurate depiction from the link above which tell you for more current data…”click here”: since none of you bothered to click, here is what you will find:
Listings Pend Mths 2wksago 1yrago
All O.C. 15,556 2,374 6.55 6.77 7.75
So, it is 2.8 years huh…..Puhleeeeeeze. Seriously, CAR sounds like they are “under-promising” and over-delivering. For the bear-soup out there, if you are actually believing this nonsense, may I suggest the services of a psychologist may be in order.
April 26th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
I am wondering just how silly it must seem to think anyone actually believed that we had 3 years of inventory sitting on the ground.
April 26th, 2008 at 12:34 pm
beckoreilly Says:
“April 26th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
I am wondering just how silly it must seem to think anyone actually believed that we had 3 years of inventory sitting on the ground.”
As crazy to believe in the sustainability of $600K pricetags for OC houses.
April 26th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
tidings:
I have actually seen price sustainability in a few areas. Not increases, but not decreases either over the past 3 or 4 months.
April 26th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
beckoreilly Says:
April 26th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
tidings:
“I have actually seen price sustainability in a few areas. Not increases, but not decreases either over the past 3 or 4 months.”
In other words, they’re the exception to the rule. I would expect to see high prices in a few select cities, but absolutely not all of OC.
April 26th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
Hey beck,
Are you a realtor? Do you have a website I could check out?
April 26th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
This was in Mission Viejo tidings. Not exactly where people are clamoring for ownership like LB, NB, etc. Just an avg. OC community with good schools, a pleasant climate, and a safe place to raise a family.
April 26th, 2008 at 1:21 pm
beckoreilly Says:
April 26th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
“This was in Mission Viejo tidings. Not exactly where people are clamoring for ownership like LB, NB, etc. Just an avg. OC community with good schools, a pleasant climate, and a safe place to raise a family.”
According to zip realty, the median household income was $75K in 2007. But the median price was $700K. I’m glad that Mission Viejo is NOT OC.
April 26th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
beckoreilly Says:
April 26th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
“This was in Mission Viejo tidings. Not exactly where people are clamoring for ownership like LB, NB, etc. Just an avg. OC community with good schools, a pleasant climate, and a safe place to raise a family.”
According to zip realty, the median household income was $75K in 2007. But the median price was $700K. Those numbers are far above the OC median and not representative of the county as a whole.
April 26th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
all you bears, or communists, have a problem. problem is you could have afforded it in 99. but you rented. you could of afforded it in 02. but you rented. now you will always be renting. you missed the ship. my newport bayshores home went from $800,000 to $2,250,000 in eight years. my payment after taxes is only $3,500 per month. i can walk to the bay in three minutes. when i paid $800,000 many people told me how stupid i was to purchase such an overpriced house. please stop venting your communist viewpoint on this site. your fundamental argument is wrong. that is why you will always be renting.
April 26th, 2008 at 3:59 pm
Psst….trs…do you have a buyer ready to pay $2.2M? Betcha you don’t.
April 26th, 2008 at 4:06 pm
# Thoughtful Says:
pdu, you crack me up! The ONLY reason I used that median analysis was to show that Lee’s “250% increase” was a joke! It’s good to have such devoted fans as yourself though!
# Thoughtful Says:
pdu, I used those median numbers to show that Lee’s claim of a “250% increase” was a fantasy. This blog is so funny!
# Thoughtful Says:
And yesssssssssss, new sfr’s are off 3% YOY. Live with it!
—–
Seems you use “median” pricing to make a point and ridicule those who use it to make a different point you might not agree with.
You are consistently inconsistent.
……and please, disabuse yourself “Thoughful” — I’m no fan of yours. The only fan you have is the multiple names you post under complimenting your own posts.
You are only able to delude yourself.
April 26th, 2008 at 4:09 pm
This is H I L A R I O U S !
All of the discussions I have posted about various supply calculations need to be reviewed by each of you. As I have written many times, the most important issue is the LENGTH OF THE PERIOD OF TIME USED TO MEASURE ABSORPTION. CAR’s use of a single month’s absorption during what has been the slowest period of sales IN HISTORY is what makes this result ridiculous.
What is even funnier, is that you take issue with Steven Thomas’ numbers (currently at about 8 months’ supply as I recall) and FULLY support CAR’s mathematical result because it fits your crash agenda.
I continue to study inventory levels and publish them for the benefit of my clients. Using my methods, inventory currently exceeds that as reported by Steven Thomas, but comes nowhere near 2.8 years. I know…..let’s use last Thursday as the absorption period, shall we? OH MY GAWDDDD! Inventory is actually 361 years, 5 months and 2.3 weeks! High enough for you? Probably not.
Why Steven Thomas continues to post his results here and take what you all dish is beyond me. While you continue to cheer for the coming crash that will have sellers paying you to take their ocean front mansions off of their hands, plenty of people are selling, buying and enjoying their real estate holdings. For example, I am in my backyard pool, surrounded by rolling green hills, enjoying this warm weekend, with very few worries.
I wish very few worries for each of you. Have a great day!
April 26th, 2008 at 6:04 pm
Excellent post, Pat. Thanks for sharing your expertise. Many of us respect you.
April 26th, 2008 at 6:05 pm
Pat,
Right now it’s too difficult to predict months or years of supply.
There are too many unknown variables.
The entire housing market is in complete shambles resulting in record low sales volumes and record high inventory.
Then add the record amount of loans still resetting and the supply could take a drastic bounce at the blink of an eye, changing the margins by an uncalculated amount.
As for everyone in here cheering on the crash…..a return to a normal housing market is what most everybody here is cheering for.
This bubble has caused enormous problems for everyone.
This bubble has left destruction in its path;
All Time Low Affordability
A Collapsed Economy with Future High Unemployment
Out of Control Inflation
Record Defaults
Record Foreclosures
Record Bankruptcies
The quicker this bubble pops the quicker people can start rebuilding their lives.
April 26th, 2008 at 7:15 pm
no thoughtless its only the blind sheep permabulls that
respect pat why the hell would someone come onto this
blog and brag about sitting by their pool while the vast
majority of the middle class in our country are scraping to
make ends pats nothing more than an overpaid arrogant
clueless dweeb nothing more
April 26th, 2008 at 7:34 pm
Maybe Pat considers HIMSELF to be a part of that middle class. Maybe THAT is his point!
April 26th, 2008 at 7:48 pm
Pat the only thing HILARIOUS is your post
unlike all the rest of the human race pat
HAS NO WORRIES NONE thats amazing
can anyone on this blog name one person
that they know of who has NO WORRIES
just another blatant lie from our resident
real man of inventory genius
April 26th, 2008 at 7:57 pm
Rants:
Correction on your part — I said I had very few worries, not none. One of few worries whenever I post is the vitriol (see http://www.thefreedictionary.com/vitriol) you are certain to spew in response. I see my worry was not misplaced.
In spite of your response, I hope YOU have a great weekend, too. I would invite you over for a swim and a beer, but…..
April 26th, 2008 at 8:03 pm
Rants, I just can’t get over the stunning hypocrisy you have demonstrated here today. Calling out Pat as bragging while others suffer just leaves me astounded. This blog is nothing more than a daily orgy of celebration of suffering. You have earned a special place in h3ll with this new low (even for you), where you will be greeted by Lucifer himself and installed in a place of honor at his right knee.
April 26th, 2008 at 8:30 pm
BuyHousesNow
you are so so out of touch. each month a couple houses sell around me. yes, are slow. however, sales at $2,250,000 do happen. i could sell my house in nine months if i listed it. fact. i am a normal guy that only makes $250,000 a year. i am a millionaire from the smart purchase of a newport home. fact.
April 26th, 2008 at 9:31 pm
trs Says:
April 26th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
all you bears, or communists, have a problem. problem is you could have afforded it in 99. but you rented. you could of afforded it in 02. but you rented. now you will always be renting. you missed the ship.”
Don’t forget to taunt those who were born too late. Now, they’ve missed the ship and will never be able to own in OC. BTW, I’m betting that you typed your post using a communist-made keyboard and a communist-made monitor. We’re all communist collaborators!
April 26th, 2008 at 10:39 pm
if trs makes 250k a year Im donald trump
April 26th, 2008 at 11:27 pm
lol @ everybody…
April 26th, 2008 at 11:58 pm
Interesting, Pat.
Interesting yet not very informative.
What period of time for inventory absorption do you “chose” to use?
You state inventory currently exceeds that as reported by Steve Thomas, but less than 2.8 years supply, based on your “absorption rate”.
It’s gobblygook — you are saying nothing.
You say:
“I continue to study inventory levels and publish them for the benefit of my clients.”
What does THAT mean? Nothing. You study them. You publish them. For whose benefit?
I’m sorry, Pat, I know nothing of you, but your post appears to be a weak attempt at venting.
Be a man. Man-up, and tell us how much your pool home has dropped in value in the last 3 years. Tell us when you anticipated that, and exactly where and when you projected the market conditions we face today.
Anybody can “study inventory levels and publish them”.
I feel that Bill put more thought and less emotion into his post than you did. He showed a little more class too.
Comments like this only help to make you seem interchangeable with the likes of “Thoughtful and Shockg, et.al.:
“While you continue to cheer for the coming crash that will have sellers paying you to take their ocean front mansions off of their hands….”
………..in fact, sometime back it was speculated on this blog that some of those posters (Thoughful, Shockg, etc) might actually be you. That’s strange.
It is also very strange that you would use the same caustic comments they have — nearly identical.
Not very professional, my man. I hope it was an impostor using your name.
Bill said it much better; I support him here and feel he has a better handle on the situation than you:
“As for everyone in here cheering on the crash…..a return to a normal housing market is what most everybody here is cheering for.”
Why is this a difficult concept for you?
April 27th, 2008 at 7:27 am
Pat,
I try to engage in a civil discussion with you and all you can do is play games taunting others.
I hate to burst your bubble, but your not the only person in here with a pool home.
In fact, your not the only person within 30 miles (Brea) from the beach with a pool home.
Do you know Brea borders Diamond Bar?
Do you know that Diamond Bar is the headquarters for AQMD?
The Air Quality Management District chose this location due to the fact that Diamond Bar is ground zero for the worst smog in the basin.
So, before you invite rants or anyone else over for a dip, you might want to warn them of the health dangers first.
Cheers!
April 27th, 2008 at 7:39 am
Oh, no you didn’t.
April 27th, 2008 at 7:45 am
“The median household income in Orange County jumped 5.5 percent to $75,537 in 2006, the state Franchise Tax Board says.”
VERY interesting! And that’s the MEDIAN, which includes the 40%+ of renters in OC. This median is also ACROSS the county. Whadyathink the numbers are for homeowners in the top 50% of towns? And a 5.5% growth rate to boot! Dayum.
April 27th, 2008 at 7:57 am
Good morning sunshine
Yeah, I read the median income report right after I read Jon’s “Mortgage Bankers Association says loan applications dropped 14.2% last week”
I guess the median income increase isn’t helping much, is it?
April 27th, 2008 at 8:00 am
poor Troughless
still does not understand that prices 5 X median income does not make the median house affordable to someone with a median income.
well it makes sense since she probably bought at 10 X income
April 27th, 2008 at 8:10 am
mav,
She also doesn’t get that the median income for 2006 still included huge broker and realtor wages from liar loans and interest only loans that are non existent now.
Those people are dead broke today.
April 27th, 2008 at 8:49 am
“still does not understand that prices 5 X median income does not make the median house affordable to someone with a median income.”
Of course not! That has NEVER been the case in Orange County barring a real estate COLLAPSE!
“She also doesn’t get that the median income for 2006 still included huge broker and realtor wages from liar loans and interest only loans that are non existent now.”
Nonsense! Business was abysmal in 2006.
April 27th, 2008 at 8:51 am
Uh, Bill: those loans are still chugging along. Get used to IO, it’s the future. You and your NONSENSE!
April 27th, 2008 at 8:52 am
trs–you’re a paper millionaire based on an inflated asset. Do you think it is historically normal for homes anywhere to go up 300% (per your case) in a decade? There were lots of dotcom stockholder paper millionaires who forgot to sell early.
Personally I bought on the way up and sold after the peak. I’ll buy again when the market finds bottom; in the meantime I retain my gains. Those who say you can’t time the RE market are generally people who want to collect transaction fees or are trying to justify to themselves why they are just letting their equity evaporate.
April 27th, 2008 at 9:01 am
the median income in 06 is irrelevant today
thousands of jobs in mortgage and real
estate have disappeared– many more are
working but making less alot less and the
ravages of inflation SEE GAS are having
severe ramifications on the middle class
which begs the question thoughtless
what planet do you currently reside on
April 27th, 2008 at 9:05 am
Try 180%.
April 27th, 2008 at 9:07 am
Somehow I think trs will be fine in his Newport Bayshores home. Sounds like sour grapes.
April 27th, 2008 at 9:12 am
trs:
Normal guys don’t make 250,000 a year. You are near the top of the food chain, which would ideally put you in Newport Beach. Unfortunately, with the lending requirements today- it would be hard to find a buyer for your home because they would have to sell theirs and get that pretend equity they have as well as you would.
250,000 a year should put you in a home under a million (hard facts- you don’t rate a 2.2 million dollar home). Also, you are not a millionaire until you actually sell your home and put that money in your pocket. Which would be the only way you could buy another Newport Beach home right now. You certainly couldn’t realistically do it on your income. btw- on your income you SHOULD be able to afford a nice home in a nice community like NB. The problem is that there are many people like yourself, making even more money, that can’t afford to buy here. Homes are so overpriced here, it is pretty hilarious to sit and watch over the next 2 years at the prices falling as they should.
why don’t you take the rest of the HELOC and buy a couple range rovers and really pretend your a millionaire!
April 27th, 2008 at 9:19 am
PDU:
I have a long history on this blog posting many times about my methods in calculating absorption rate. I started my post by telling everyone to review them, so that my position would have some credibility. You are welcome review them, too.
Bill:
LOL. Yes, I know I am not the only person with a pool in his backyard. That was my point all along. Let me tell it another way….
While so many here debate what’s good and bad, others (including myself and MILLIONS more) go on with their lives enjoying the decisions they have made. I wish the same for you, and all others here.
Also, I did NOT know Brea borders Diamond Bar, and that it is one of the smoggier cities in Orange County. Thanks for telling me. I have decided to put my home on the market immediately, and to sue my REALTOR for not disclosing these facts, even though I have lived here for 25 years. I am VERY grateful to you.
Finally, this was yet another periodic visit of mine to Jon’s blog that ends up frustrating more than enlightening. See you in another 30 to 45 days!
April 27th, 2008 at 9:33 am
(tried to post this earlier, but still awaiting moderation)
trs:
“Normal” guys don’t make 250,000 a year. You are near the top of the food chain, which would ideally put you in Newport Beach. Unfortunately, with the lending requirements today- it would be hard to find a buyer for your home because they would have to sell theirs and get that pretend equity they have as well as you would.
250,000 a year should put you in a home under a million (hard facts- you don’t rate a 2.2 million dollar home). Also, you are not a millionaire until you actually sell your home and put that money in your pocket. Which would be the only way you could buy another Newport Beach home right now. You certainly couldn’t realistically do it on your income. btw- on your income you SHOULD be able to afford a nice home in a nice community like NB. The problem is that there are many people like yourself, making even more money, that can’t afford to buy here. Homes are so overpriced here, it is pretty hilarious to sit and watch over the next 2 years at the prices falling as they should.
why don’t you take the rest of the HELOC and buy a couple range rovers and really pretend your a millio