State job stats, analyzed by your blogger, show that Orange County’s real estate and finance employers last month gained 1,000 positions from February to 232,800. It’s the first month-to-month gain in nine months.
However, in the past year, O.C. real estate and finance bosses slashed a total 19,500 jobs (or 7.73%) as the housing slump and credit crunch got worse. All told, work in these heavily land-related industries is off 11% from its September ‘06 peak.
Jobs in this niche have declined, on a year-over-year basis, for 16 straight months. The drop pushed real estate/finance’s share of the overall O.C. workforce to 15.5%, lowest since July ‘03 .
Bosses outside real estate/finance niches cut 1,800 jobs in the year ended last month. It’s the sixth consecutive year-over-year decline outside of real estate/finance as the broader economy begins to weaken. (At look at overall O.C. hiring trends IS HERE!)
Here’s a detailed look at real estate/finance by key slices …
| Job slice | Last mo. | Vs. ‘07 | Vs. ‘07 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | 98,100 | -5,100 | -4.9% |
| • Construct buildings | 23,300 | -1,100 | -4.5% |
| • Heavy construction | 7,900 | -600 | -7.1% |
| • Specialty trades | 66,900 | -3,400 | -4.8% |
| Lending activities | 35,600 | -14,200 | -28.5% |
| • Bank lending | 18,000 | -700 | -3.7% |
| • Non-bank lending | 12,900 | -8,400 | -39.4% |
| • Lending support | 4,700 | -5,100 | -52.0% |
| Other finance | 11,000 | -300 | -2.7% |
| Real estate/leasing | 37,900 | -1,000 | -2.6% |
| • Real estate | 31,600 | -700 | -2.2% |
| • Leasing | 6,300 | -300 | -4.5% |
| Bldg. services | 32,800 | +1,300 | +4.1% |
| Building supply | 11,200 | -600 | -5.1% |
| Farm | 6,200 | +400 | +6.9% |
| All real-estate related | 232,800 | -19,500 | -7.7% |
| All other O.C. jobs | 1,268,600 | -1,800 | -0.1% |
| All O.C. jobs | 1,501,400 | -21,300 | -1.4% |
I would not trust State Job Stat with self promotion.
If you can believe this uptick of jobs in the finance/RE sector, I got
a 1 bed room condo in Irvine valued at $599K that you can take off my hands. I am told it will appreciate in the coming years.
Shhhhh, what’s that rumbling sound? Hmmm, sounds like the oncoming pitter-pat of first time buyers and lots of new escrows opening up.
The tide has turned. The decline has ground to a halt, in Orange County, at least. The bottom is HERE.
“The tide has turned. The decline has ground to a halt, in Orange County, at least. The bottom is HERE.”
This reminds me of those folks you see at Laughlin who keep feeding the slot machines nickels and keep pulling on the handle, because if they keep feeding and keep pulling, at some point their anxiety will be relieved … temporarily.
“Dead Cat Bounce” “Shills!!” “Don’t Buy” “No Recovery until 2012!!” LOL
Shhhhh, what’s that rumbling sound? Hmmm, sounds like the oncoming pitter-pat of first time buyers and lots of new escrows opening up.
That rumbling sound is the tsunami of foreclosed properties flooding the market over the few months that will wash out that spring season pitter-pattering. NODs skyrocketed in Q1.
Buy Now!!?????? Good Idea, then come back to this blog and tell us in one year how much equity you lost on your house. Go ahead buy, there are lots of good deals right now, but after the summer and this winter those good deals will not so good. Housing starts are at a 16 year low, quoted this morning. The big builders quote a slow down for the rest of the year, and are not starting any new projects. That has to tell you, these smart guys that run these companies are pulling back, because they know the money is there yet and buyers confidence is extremely low. I myself are waiting, ya I have a 25% - 30% down for a house, and yes I am very excited about buying, but I am not rushing in yet. Hold out and plan, that is my game. Keep saving, dont spend your money, tighten up the finances just for a month, and see what you are able to save, just try it. You will own a home soon!!
This quote from Bertrand Russell seems to me aptly summarizes the “debate” on this blog:
“If a man is offered a fact which goes against his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, he is offered something which affords a reason for acting in accordance to his instincts, he will accept it even on the slightest evidence.”
Come on BHN, let the bulls have their crumbs.
It speaks VOLUMES that we are seeing signs of normal historical buying patterns. And all this while swimming upstream against reduced credit availability and a barrage of negative media stories. I for one find it extremely promising. At the end of the day, people will always want to OWN. THAT is what keeps the bears coming back day after day after day.
Everyobdy knows and understand about reality, except Experts, Economists, Housing Veterans, State and Local Government.
Media hype and spin are no longer work.
Great quote, Crystal Balls. It’s like the author has been reading this blog!
Was the increase in employment for people who deal in forclosures? Somebody has to clean up the mess.
Crystal Balls, that is a great quote. Captures both sides of the debate nicely.
I would be curious to find out how the month to month numbers break out by subindustry. How did OC lending do last month versus this month for example? We all know tons of OC lending jobs were lost last year, but what is happening this year?
Carlos.
Interesting premise. If true, it would invalid all of Jon’s blog articles, which have been mostly bad news. I guess that means we’re in the clear. Yes?
Its a good thing that people have jobs. I want people to have jobs, I dont want the country to collapse.
Thoughtful Says:
April 24th, 2008 at 8:44 am
“It speaks VOLUMES that we are seeing signs of normal historical buying patterns.”
As prices are slowly returning to reality, more people will buy. But right now, mere signs are not confirmation of stability.
“And all this while swimming upstream against reduced credit availability and a barrage of negative media stories.”
There you go again Rants. You and the media continually drive potential buyers away.
“I for one find it extremely promising. At the end of the day, people will always want to OWN. THAT is what keeps the bears coming back day after day after day.”
Here’s the missing part of your statement: At the end of the day, people will always want to OWN AT THE RIGHT PRICE. For most, current prices are not right. BTW, what keeps bulls coming back here? Complaining about the media?
that a boy blogger keep throwing some bones out there
for the permabull realtors to chew on… simple minds are easily
fooled and this blog proves it llooll @ribsplitter
What’s that RUMBLING SOUND? It’s the sound of everyone’s stomachs turning after they realized the’ve been duped by all RE bubble hype in OC and all the lies from the lenders and realtors.
let them have their fun and pop their $5 bottle of champagne
there are probably better things to celebrate than an 8% loss in RE jobs year over year…….. i’m thinking they should save their down graded $5 bottle for something else……….. but let the “bulls” have some fun anyway…. and let them ignore the horrid amount of negative RE news that came out today
it’s nice to see a change from their typical excuses like a 13 year old coming home at 3 am ………….. LOL rants
Yea! All our troubles are over! Now, if I can get that empty house across the street for $295,000 I’ll be on landlord easy street!
No way is OC RE going to make a turnaround now. There is very little market out there for the asking prices of most homes. If there is a turnaround then maybe I’ll wait for my home to be worth 5 million pretty soon. I can retire early. But that’s not gonna happen.
So I have to ask the question….
I want to buy a home or nice condo, 3 bed 2 bath 1600 sqft, but pay no more than like $350K for it. I have $100K to put down and I have a 795 mid FICO score. When do you think a good time to buy is?
I was thinking right before Christmas 2008.
Oh, and I want it in Anaheim Hills!
Thoughtful: You stated, “It speaks VOLUMES that we are seeing signs of normal historical buying patterns”
Please provide the data to support that statement. From what I have read, you are the first to write it, so I assume you are the first to find the data to support it. You are quite resourceful to be able to come that conclusion. I eagerly await for the supporting data.
Kim, i think you answered your own question. Buy when you can get 1600 sq. ft. for $350K………. $200 per sq. ft? that sounds about right
unfortunately it might take 2 years……it might take 3 years……. but you can enjoy your interest payments on your $100K until then
keep stock piling the money……… and rent something you enjoy living in…….. plenty of good options out there
Crystal Balls: The evidence that supports a bottom has been reached is plenty? or few?
This is what us investors are doing - we look at a certain set of metrics and track them. We then make predictions (near term and long term) based on an immense amount of data - not just a few that we can take on their own and come to an ignorant conclusion.
Investors do not look at just the positive forward looking statements while ignoring the mass of negative data. Those that do are either trying to sell something or are just plain stupid.
rants: thanks for the great article from the washington post: I challenge the mis-informed permabulls on this blog to read it so as to understand what has happened over the last 10 years or so: how our economy was artificially and unsustainably juiced by easy credit and the ultimate result we all face: an unavoidable drop in living standards, both for the consumer and for Uncle Sam. oh, and the clincher:
“It means that the price of homes return to levels that reflect the incomes of the people who live in them, and the price of office buildings and shopping centers reflect the cash flow from tenants.”
but our slimy permabulls want you to jump into this quicksand of a market so they can cover their resets and retire while you drown in debt on an asset that will continue to devalue. Despicable!
Lending jobs have practically disappeared in OC. All the big banks and lenders that have to report jobs have dramatically laid off and will continue to do so. All the mortgage brokers, loan officers, real estate agents, escrow and title companies that do not report any stats to the govt are completely decimated. I see it every day, I go into the offices, many of which are now closed, I get the bounced back emails from dead email accounts, I hear the list of names on the voice mail that no longer are employed. I know about the brokers, LOs and realtors getting jobs at restaurants and malls. I see the lenders who have had to take a $8 hr as abank teller. That does not really count as a banking job when the LO used to makre 5 to 10 grand a month.
Kim- Do you have a secure job? Will you be here in OC for at least the next 5 years and not need to sell? Then buy your house this fall. Don’t buy a condo, buy a house. Condos have unseen expenses that will come to haunt you later like increasing HOA payments, unplanned assessments, etc. Enjoy your house and the security of home ownership. Don’t worry about equity if you are in this investment for the long haul. Things will turn around as they always do. Just don’t make yourself a slave to a mortgage unless you are committed to stay in your home as a long term investment.
Thanks Mav,
My boyfriend and I have been waiting for over a year now and we are getting impatient. We want to live together and start the next chapter if you know what I mean. We definately cant wait 2-3 years. I guess I will just have to keep waiting until I feel its a really good deal and I can afford it…comfortably. I plan to own whatever I buy for a long time so selling in the next 10 years is not what I want. I eventually want to rent whatever we buy and get something bigger…
Does anyone really have a stable job??? I work for a general contractor. My boyfriend does as well. He has been on the job for 10 years. We are branching off soon and starting our own painting business.
I am trying to get my Master’s in social work so after I do I will definately have a good high paying stable job, but everything is unforseen in the next 2 years with everyone’s job.
I am a smart women. I do want a house, but I know how much all the other expenses can be so I want to be able to make the payment regardless of what happens in my life. I guess I will have to stash away another $40K just in case.
I think there is plenty of “evidence” to justify whatever conclusion you want to believe. I could come up with an endless list on either side of the argument. The trick is giving weight and context to that evidence. Sure, the market has gone down a lot and that has led to other negative economic consequences, but that evidence is consistent with a market which is still falling AND a market which is at or near the bottom. I continue to marvel at the extent to which bloggers express certainty on matters which are require an understanding of not only the complexities of the economics, but also of the human mind.
Kim,
“I guess I will have to stash away another $40K just in case.”
you have a good head on your shoulders……….. you are right…….. no job is stable right now and if you are going to give up the $100K down stroke on a house right now (a non liquid asset with the HELOC valve shut off)……… you better have considerable cash reserves ($40K or more)………….
things are getting back to normal in the housing market……….. you can rent a nice SFR for a reasonable price right now and give up nothing…….. your cash reserves will grow
there is a time to buy and a time to rent……… this is the time to rent
Demand increases with every percentage point of price decrease. So the boosters are correct that there is always *some* “pent-up demand” that comes unstuck as prices decline (unless credit unavailability decreases purchasing power more than price declines increase it, that is).
For the last five years, there has been a certain segment of Orange County’s population that has been shut out of the homebuying market by (1) excessive prices, and (2) their unwillingness to use Ponzi financing (i.e., loans that require rapid appreciation and serial refinancing at increased loan amounts to be serviceable). With each fall in prices, some part of this cohort becomes able to buy houses.
The trillion-dollar question is this: Which is larger — (1) the “pent-up demand” of prospective buyers who kept their powder dry, or (2) the cohort of buyers who did jump in the market over the past five years, using unsustainable financing?
If the former group is larger, then the market may stabilize at the point where the bottom cohort of that group can afford homeownership. If the latter group is larger, the flood of distressed properties coming onto the market will absorb all the “pent-up demand” — and then keep rolling down, like a flood filling a reservoir and then overtopping a dam.
“not buying it Says:
April 24th, 2008 at 10:32 am
Thoughtful: You stated, “It speaks VOLUMES that we are seeing signs of normal historical buying patterns.”
Please provide the data to support that statement. From what I have read, you are the first to write it, so I assume you are the first to find the data to support it. You are quite resourceful to be able to come that conclusion. I eagerly await for the supporting data.”
not buying it, what exactly am I supposed to humor you with? Are you asking for proof of “signs of normal historical buying patterns”, or are you asking for proof that the same “speaks volumes”? Frankly, both would be ABSURD questions. You are a really strange bird, I MUST say. And extremely condescending and pompous, to boot!
Thanks Mav,
I will just have to wait it out and jump in when I feel I am ready.
Kim,
If you believe what “thoughtful” says, you will never be able to buy a home. The bottom is here. Things are going up. Things have stabilized, just look around, he says. Pretty soon that 1600 sq ft condo will be 1 million. Can you afford that?
I have been on these blogs for awhile and “thoughtful” is an idiot. I do not believe what he says nor do most. So I take what he says with a very small grain of salt. Like most of you do as well.
There goes another bipolar bear. Never met an extreme that they couldn’t embrace.
Lansner, you’re quite the comedian. Hopefully, I can doItRIgHt! OK, I’ll admit it….it took me four times.
And you’re a biatch!
Uh, Kim, do you also not believe the MOUNTAIN of data that I provide here? Of course you don’t, you NEED to buy soon!
Hey CrystalBalls,
Not a bad little quote.
Now you might want to put this one right next to it — it’s pertinent to understanding why the realtors and “investors” here refuse to stand and admit this might not be the best time for one to buy.
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.”
— Upton Sinclair
I am a biatch. At least that’s what my license plate says. :)
I am just not as gullable as most. I dont go by the junk that is posted my realtors or the news. Uh hello, they want people to go out and buy so society doesnt fall into the black hole!
Your MOUNTAIN of data is what we all keep hearing…but arent seeing.
Yes, GULLABLE is a good way to describe *someone* that *thinks* this market is stabilizing. The NAR is great at deceiving gullable people to make them think they should buy when the prices are in an obvious tail spin. Don’t know why it makes *some* people so mad when you speak the truth. There are people who will rant and rave about how great OC RE is right now - buy, buy, buy, but they wouldn’t dare buy themselves. Funny how that is.
Crystal Balls opined…
“I think there is plenty of “evidence” to justify whatever conclusion you want to believe. I could come up with an endless list on either side of the argument. The trick is giving weight and context to that evidence. Sure, the market has gone down a lot and that has led to other negative economic consequences, but that evidence is consistent with a market which is still falling AND a market which is at or near the bottom. I continue to marvel at the extent to which bloggers express certainty on matters which are require an understanding of not only the complexities of the economics, but also of the human mind.”
Actually, the bears on this blog started calling BS on home prices many months before it started to become apparent that the market was tanking. You could probably say that some were just self-servingly optimistic that prices would come in line with what their bosses could pay them (and were roundly accused of this repeatedly by the bulls). However, many if not most could see a disconnect from fundamentals that has accompanied every bubble market in history. Since history is the key issue here, especially in the absence of any believable “new paradigm,” it remains apparent that RE is a very risky place to put money into at the moment. Until the bulls truly capitulate, it will remain this way. No crystal balls needed.
Great!
Now Thoughtful can get a job and get off welfare.
Thoughful has a full-time job.
Right here :)
I’m taking a class in Irvine this week and just came back from a food court on the corner of Alton and Barranca. There were only 4 out of 10 businesses up and running the other 6 still had a sign up but were out of business. The place was nearly empty. Is ithis the intersection of Subprime Ave and Alt A place?
Nah. It’s where Thoughfulness used to eat til she got her new gig on the computer.
Yes Tom,
That is where we all used to go when I was working in the Mortgage Industry.
I guess those people havent found another job yet and cant afford to buy lunch anymore.
Alot of people are trying to offset higher prices for other non-essential things.
Like to offset gas prices. I am not taking the toll road anymore…unless I am really late. I work 7-4pm now so my traffic on the 55 isnt as bad as it is at 5pm. People are really pinching pennies.
Alton and Barranca are paralell to each other, so that would be hard to believe. Some changes in traffic have occurred with the phenomenal success of The District, maybe that’s it (assuming I believe you).
quick question
do housing bubble blogs count as real estate related jobs?
LMAO @ ribsplitter llllooollll
……. now national bubble and http://www.irvinehousingblog.com are world famous……. nat. bubble, you are on NPR?……. you going for syndication?
way to improve the real estate job market, LOL@ribsplitter
Sorry,
It is the corner of Von Karmen and Barranca. I’m not ussually in this area.
Ah, thanks. I also stand corrected…Alton and Barranca cross over deep in the Spectrum. Von Karmen and Barranca? I don’t know the exact place you mean, but The District has impacted nearby businesses. Whole Foods alone does gangbuster business at lunch.
Tom M: I noticed the gutting of that food court as well and asked the owner of the Vietnamese spot there what was up: evidently, the owner is going to rezone or something because he is not letting them renew their leases. Thus, as their leases expire, you have another closed stall in that food court. By and large, it was a nasty dirty place so hopefully the owner will come up with some better ideas: but good luck on that, it is right next to what was mortgage central in Irvine with everybody s&**-canned.
Thoughtful: You HAVE GOT BE KIDDING ME!!! You are definitely not a professional anything.
LET ME GET THIS STRAIGHT. YOU MAKE A STATEMENT THAT RELIES ON HISTORICAL DATA (traditional buying patterns). I ASK YOU FOR THE DATA AND YOU CANNOT UNDERSTAND THE NATURE OF MY QUESTION.
I always loved this one: “Out of 100 million sperm - you were the fastest?”
First off: you state: “We are returning to traditional buying patterns.”
Then define for me, professionally please, what traditional buying patterns are for the OC? I believe you are trying to insinuate that we are now selling homes at a pace sustainable for pricing based on historical data. That is my point. I totally believe that we are not. I call you on your lie and am asking for the proof behind your statements.
Or do you like to make statements that appear to be conclusions drawn from data but actually are drawn from the deep caverns of the vaccumous space that inhabits your skull?
Put it this way - you call it yellow - fine - call it yellow. But you are making a statement that is based on numbers - yes? no? Then provide the damn numbers please or readers are simply forced to maintain their conclusions that you act like an informed member of this blog that is a legend in their own mind with no data to back that up. - Simply because you can.
Where did you get your education anyway? To not be able to understand the nature of my questions is quite….. elementary.
Now - if you simply are stating that spring time is usually met by increased sales numbers - then please provide the relevance in light of what amounts to be the worse sales volumes in recorded history - and even moreso when normalized for inventory and population.
And remember this - its not about being negative - its about being real.
What are the traditional buying patterns? If its just in the numbers, then aren’t we still way off from the avg # of homes purchased during a “normal” March or Feb? Am I wrong?
“Traditional buying patterns”, meaning that there’s a spring RE selling season followed by a dropoff that reverses after each January, were never violated throughout this situation. See the link to the chart I linked to in a previous post.
How about all the 1099s…how about all those that make less money than in previews years? Many OC incomes and spending habits were artificially inflated as a direct result of this housing bubble. It’s great that the data shows a first time rise in over 9 months but it is only painting have the picture.
How about all the 1099s…how about all those that make less money than in previews years? Many OC incomes and spending habits were artificially inflated as a direct result of this housing bubble. It’s great that the data shows a first time rise in over 9 months but this is only painting half the picture.
You need to realize that most real estate personnel have very little education (just like used car salesmen). We have not even reached the peak of the resets about to hit our county and then it takes several months to notice (because the banks sit on their a**es all day). At least this mortgagee can live rent free before being kicked out.
Definition - Mortgage - Etymology: Middle English morgage, from Anglo-French mortgage, from mort dead
Mortgagee - a person to whom property is mortgaged
Mortgage - to subject to a claim or obligation
Do you see homeowner anywhere?
Renting is the smart way right now.
Another note - unemployment numbers are way off because a lot of real estate personnel didn’t contribute to unemployment insurance. The numbers are extremely inaccurate.
pent; up demand is meaningless right now–most of it cant get loans
I think real estate is now at a time to buy. Like I said before as a realtor I believe we are at the bottom. Greg moser
Any news on the condo market. Condos tend to help set the mark as to how we are doing. greg moser
Greg - you’re a realtor and you want news on the condo market?
Go figure.
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