Here's recent history of the Fed’s policy committee and its Fed Funds rate. Next Fed decision is June 24/25.
Demand for O.C. homes up 23% in a year
April 21st, 2008, 12:01 am · 158 Comments · posted by Jon Lansner/O.C. Register columnist
The math of Steve Thomas at Re/Max Real Estate Services in Aliso Viejo says demand for O.C. housing is growing. As of last Thursday, 2,374 existing homes and condos had been placed into escrow in the past 30 days, a 23% gain vs. a year ago. It’s a strong hint that when these deals-in-the-works are completed in the next two months, we’ll see a mathematical end of the county’s home-buying losing slump. By DataQuick’s tracking of closed deals, it’s a losing streak that’s run 30 months back to September 2005.
Also, Thomas calculates a “market time” benchmark tracking how many months it theoretically takes to sell all the inventory in the local MLS for-sale listings at the current pace of pending deals being made. By this logic, it would take 6.55 months for buyers to gobble up all homes for sale at the current pace vs. 6.77 months two weeks earlier and below 7.75 months a year ago.
Thomas notes: “Our agents in the trenches are unanimously reporting that there is a large wave of first time home buyer activity. … prices have finally fallen to a point where they can now afford to purchase and that is precisely what they are doing.” And, “inventory has not changed much this year and has actually dropped by 61 homes over the past month.”
Here’s how listing, deals in the works and market time look as of last Thursday …
| Slice | Listings | Pending | Market time (mos.) | 2 wks. ago | 1 yr. ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All O.C. | 15,556 | 2,374 | 6.55 | 6.77 | 7.75 |
| •$0-$500k | 7,226 | 1293 | 5.59 | 5.74 | 7.37 |
| •$500k-$750k | 3,692 | 657 | 5.62 | 6.01 | 7.33 |
| •$750k-$1m | 1,778 | 225 | 7.90 | 7.85 | 7.67 |
| •$1m-$1.5m | 1,274 | 117 | 10.89 | 10.26 | 7.47 |
| •$1.5m-$2m | 719 | 55 | 13.07 | 15.64 | 9.43 |
| •$2m-4m | 805 | 51 | 15.78 | 15.13 | 14.44 |
| •$4m+ | 285 | 13 | 21.92 | 28.40 | 10.67 |
(Note: k=thousand; m=million)
April 21st, 2008 at 1:12 am
Here’s the entire report:
Market Time Report: April 17, 2008
First Time Home Buyers are Back
Good Afternoon!
Current housing demand continues to outpace last year and the reemergence of first time home buyers is a major factor. If you listen to or read all the recent reports regarding “sold” statistics for March, one would quickly come to the conclusion that the real estate market is continuing to sputter along at a slow pace. However, this could not be further from the truth. Sold activity is a snapshot of the past, about a month and a half in the past to be precise. So, March “sold” statistics are really a snapshot of the second half of January through the first half of February. The market did improve during that time but was still extremely anemic as demand, a snapshot of the prior 30 days of escrow activity, grew from 989 escrows in mid-January to 1,630 escrows in mid-February, a gain of 641 escrows. Since then demand has continuously grown to its current height of 2,374 escrows. Last year at this time demand was at 1,925 escrows, 449 fewer than today. This recent escrow activity will translate to sold data reported in the months to come. The big story will be that the year over year sold statistics will be better for the first time since the Autumn of 2005. Demand already crossed that threshold two weeks ago. Some skeptics attempt to discount the uptick in demand, claiming that many will fall out of escrow. That is simply not statistically true. The data does not support their claim. Yes, some escrows do fall out; however, the snapshot of 30 day escrow activity misses some escrows that have already closed because they were less than 30 day escrows. The average escrow is about 45 days, but we do have one, two and three week escrows that won’t show up in the data for long. So, the less than 30 day escrows offset most escrows that fall out. The bottom line: the market is improving. Market time has dropped from 15.6 months at the beginning of the year to 6.55 months today, not as deep of a buyer’s market. The active inventory grew by only 82 homes in the past two weeks to 15,556 homes. The active inventory has not changed much this year and has actually dropped by 61 homes over the past month. Last year at this time the active inventory was only 745 homes fewer homes than today and it was growing at a rate of 700 homes every two weeks.
The majority of the upswing in demand is in the lower ranges. Our agents in the trenches are unanimously reporting that there is a large wave of first time home buyer activity. First time home buyers had been priced out of the market and dwindled in numbers during the last couple years of the housing boom. But, prices have finally fallen to a point where they can now afford to purchase and that is precisely what they are doing. One year ago there were only 408 condominiums priced below $250,000 compared to 1,263 today, more than triple. One year ago there were only 343 detached homes priced below $500,000 compared to 2,848 today, more than eight times. The market time for detached homes below $500,000 is at 4.61 months, a slight seller’s market. It is not a coincidence that 75.7% of all condominiums and detached homes below $500,000 are either a foreclosure or a short sale. This fact has provided many opportunities for first time home buyers to finally enter the market. The first time home buyer activity is the seeds to the rebirth of the Orange County housing market. That does not mean that the market is going to right itself overnight. But, it is the first positive step in the recovery process. It was the lower ranges that were hit hard last March with the beginning of the subprime meltdown and it makes sense that it would be the first to take a step in the right direction. Many homes and condominiums in the lower ranges are receiving multiple offers. Foreclosures and short sales are not only securing multiple offers, they are closing above their asking price.
The upper ranges remain sluggish due to the financial crunch. The financial system is still not functioning properly. Lenders are still having liquidity issues and their lending requirements and interest rates for loans in the upper ranges are too rigid and are deeply cutting into demand. For example, the market time for homes priced between $1 million and $1.5 million is 10.89 months compared to 7.47 months one year ago. The upper ranges will remain sluggish until the financial markets start buying pools of mortgages once again. Since the beginning of the financial crunch in August of 2007, the financial markets have refused to buy any pools of mortgages. But, there are some signs that their appetite has been growing. First, a major national lender attempted to sell a pool of only the best of the best loans at the end of January, but the financial markets would only purchase them for a discount. They repeated their effort in March and the financial markets bought it at “par.” The logjam in the financial markets should begin to ease by the end of the third quarter, as will the disparity between conventional loans up to $417,000 and the new loan limit of $729,750, as well as jumbo loans above $729,750. Currently, there are three tiers of mortgages. The cheapest rates are for loans below the old conventional loan limit of $417,000. Rates for loans between the old conventional limit and the new $729,750 limit are three-quarters of a point higher. And, lenders tack on an additional three quarters of a point for loans above the new limit. As the financial markets’ appetite for pools of loans increases, these disparities will begin to diminish. This will be the second big positive step towards recovery. At that point, demand at the upper end of the Orange County real estate market will increase.
Buyers, what to do? First, it totally depends upon the area and price range on the approach. Naturally, in dealing with foreclosures, short sales and the lower ranges, be prepared for much more competition than any headlines would lead you to believe. There is a strong probability that you will be competing with other buyers in writing an offer on a home. In some cases it will take an offer to purchase above the asking price to secure a home. Due to the sluggishness in the upper ranges, buyers are more in control of their destiny with less competition. For those buyers looking for a deal in the higher ranges, keep in mind that only 5.7% of all distressed homes, foreclosures and short sales, are found above $750,000. Be prepared for increased activity on these properties too because every buyer is looking for a “deal.” Also, it is important to point out that lenders are in the driver’s seat when it comes to foreclosures. Currently, the market time for foreclosures is 2.05 months, a deep seller’s market. It is important to point out that the low interest rates should remain intact throughout 2008, but pressure is mounting for the Federal Reserve to raise rates as they grow more concerned about an increase in inflation. Rates have been favorable for a long time, but do not get comfortable with today’s interest rates, they WILL eventually increase. As soon as the economy starts humming along again, expect the Federal Reserve to reverse course and push rates up higher. By the way, for every 1% that interest rates increase, it erases approximately all of the benefits of waiting for property values to decrease 10%. The payments are virtually identical.
Sellers, what to do? It is extremely difficult to navigate in the current Orange County real estate market. Now more than ever it is essential to have an experienced Realtor® guide you throughout the process. There are numerous variables and market changes to continuously watch for: area short sales, foreclosures, local trends, detached versus attached pricing, etc. Be prepared to constantly reevaluate your pricing position within the market. The key ingredients to a successful sale are an excellent price and excellent condition. In arriving at price, the condition and location increase or decrease the market value. This market can also test a seller’s patience and you must be as prepared for a showing on day 120 as you were the first week. Stage your home for success: turn all the lights on, have soft music playing in the background, open all of the shutters and blinds to allow in natural light, turn on the air conditioning on hot days, box up and store all clutter and your home should be neat as a pin from top to bottom.
Have a wonderful weekend.
Sincerely,
Steven Thomas
RE/MAX Real Estate Services ( End of report.)
April 21st, 2008 at 2:10 am
Next year or shortly after, myself (and 3 or 4 other 1st-time buyer couples that we know) will buy, but not until prices fall back in line with fundamentals. A usual summer bump is nice (nice for those buyers who are impressed by getting 150k off what their home price was in 05), as these will continue to bring comps down. With job loss, income stagnancy, credit card debt, high gas prices, recession-related issues, no more home-refi ATMs, and tighter lending, we’re not fearful at all that prices will rise in any sustainable period. Not until 09 or 10.
So, keep pushing it, bulls.
Future home buyers: Look at any graphs comparing income levels, the local economy, jobs/wages, and housing and how closely they mirror each other - they’re still out of whack. Hold on and don’t be impressed by the summer bump, this market is still moving DOWN.
Bulls: Tell me where all of this money will come from…
April 21st, 2008 at 7:01 am
Jon
Steve Thomas claims that with his math he can predict what will happen 2 months down the road. Let’s have Mr. History look back and see what Steve said in Jan and Feb. Jan 25th he said 22% increase in demand. Feb 25th he said 49% increase in demand but at the end of March we are still 50% below normal. Steve and his math is about as good as Gary Watts and his cyrstal ball.
April 21st, 2008 at 7:15 am
I really doubt we are going to see any kind of a significant turnaround. Home prices are still very high.
April 21st, 2008 at 7:23 am
People always want to buy a home. Wouldn’t anyone? The problem is the banks/lenders ran out of fundings? The secondary market for mortgages is dead! Investors worldwide who have been burnt by the US’ toxic mortgage back securities (now the UK’s) realize that until prices fall back down to fundamental values measured by affordability, income-dependent metrics, or housing P/E ratio, etc., they will not step in. That is why banks hesitate to lend. ( Without the fools at the end of the chain, lending now requires banks to hold onto assets with rapidly depreciating price). The only sources of fundings is from the govt. And how much subsidies can the govt., on behalf of US taxpayers, can provide to a market of falling asset price? The biggest trend of all out there is de-leveraging of bad-debts (yep, including the over-price mortgages)! And the process requires new fools, besides the govt. the last-resort buyer of bad debts, to step in to ease the loads. Don’t be fooled by these self-serving interests out there.
April 21st, 2008 at 7:27 am
Sorry bears, but this is the stat that is key:
—Market time has dropped from 15.6 months at the beginning of the year to 6.55 months today, not as deep of a buyer’s market.—
Sellers that do not have to sell are not putting their homes on the market as evidenced by market time stats.
Look at the number of condos under 250K: —One year ago there were only 408 condominiums priced below $250,000 compared to 1,263 today, more than triple.—
Look at the number of SFR below 500K…—–One year ago there were only 343 detached homes priced below $500,000 compared to 2,848 today, more than eight times. The market time for detached homes below $500,000 is at 4.61 months, a slight seller’s market.—-
The national average to sell a home is traditionally 90-120 days. OC is moving back to fundamentals. Somehow, this will still not be enough for you all. May I then suggest a very nice agent and internet search for Tulsa, OK? It is in locations like these where your median income theory and housing costs matrix will coincide with one another. It will not happen here.
April 21st, 2008 at 7:31 am
re:” It is in locations like these where your median income theory and housing costs matrix will coincide with one another. It will not happen here.”
Yet.
You left off “yet” at the end.
April 21st, 2008 at 7:33 am
When prices become more affordable, people buy. Doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure that out.
If the lower priced homes/condos are the ones that are selling, other would be sellers will drop their prices accordingly.
As long as prices aren’t going UP, then buyers are still in the drivers seat.
April 21st, 2008 at 7:39 am
Escrows WAY up.
Inventory down and almost a seller’s market.
Rates attractive.
ARM indices PLUMMETING.
Affordability off by less than a measly 7%.
First time buyers back IN FORCE.
FHA/Fannie/Freddie to fund large, flexible loans.
Fannie to KEEP billiions in loans rather than securitize them.
Additional bailouts in the pipeline to be announced SOON.
Good start to the week!
April 21st, 2008 at 7:44 am
Keep dreaming Min Sky. You might find it in one of these lovely areas:
Santa Ana 92707 10.43
Santa Ana 92701 10.14
Anaheim 92804 8.47
Santa Ana 92703 8.23
Santa Ana 92704 7.86
Anaheim 92801 7.56
Stanton 90680 7.28
Anaheim 92805 7.16
Garden Grove 92844 6.62
Garden Grove 92843 6.36
Garden Grove 92841 6.18
Garden Grove 92840 5.95
I wonder why GG and Santa Ana get so much heat…those are foreclosures per 1000 homes. My zip, 92692 is a paltry less than 2. Yes dear ones…rush out and find that “deal” of a foreclosure. I hear there are some in Ladera too if you prefer upscale pillaging.
April 21st, 2008 at 7:55 am
Thoughtful said:
“Rates attractive.”
Food and energy prices also up thanks to low interest rates. Hmmm…a 500+K house or eating.
“First time buyers back IN FORCE.”
Great. Let them drive prices down.
“Additional bailouts in the pipeline to be announced SOON.
Good start to the week!”
In other words, bulls are nothing but welfare queens who prefer to keep prices artificially inflated. Do tell us what the next bailout (and low interest rates) will do for RE that the last bailout couldn’t. The level of desperation is directly correlated with the number of government “actions”
April 21st, 2008 at 8:02 am
Is Steve Thomas buying? Or is he just telling you that it is a good time to buy and a good time for him to make commissions?
April 21st, 2008 at 8:19 am
Just curious: Why do so many of you bears out there HATE, wait that is not strong enough, LOATHE, wait that is not doing it either, DETEST, well just use your favorite negative connotation here, why do so many of you have this mega-problem with RE agents? I find it comical that so many of you believe that they can actually influence what someone will be willing to pay for a home.
You may not agree that Jimmy Choo stilettos are worth $700, but Nordstrom does as do the buyer’s of these shoes.
You may not agree that Ferrari believes its 599 to be worth $270,000, but their buyers do and you cannot buy a new one (any Ferrari–unless you are a celebrity type) unless you are a previous customer…so you have to start with a used one to enter the family. You have to prove who you are BEFORE they will sell you one of their cars. Reverse capitalism.
Scale it down? OK, you may not agree that the BMW 3 series is worth $40,000, but plenty of people around here do. Matter of fact I see more of them than prius’ or civics it seems.
Point being: the bears in this blog in no shape, form, or fashion represent the majority of the buying public. Most of you are naysayers, hanging on every negative headline you can find for your own amusement. Were you the kids that burned ants with a magnifying glass? I at least give Poggi credit as he put his money where his mouth is….he is not buying anywhere in OC….for now.
Facts are indisputable: oil is at $117, gas is at $3.80, and demand is up for OC housing for the first time in a long time. Foreclosures on the market for about 2 months? A huge seller’s market in that category…again, facts are indisputable. Better go get yours as their prices will not be coming down.
April 21st, 2008 at 8:20 am
“Sellers that do not have to sell are not putting their homes on the market as evidenced by market time stats.”
Who cares what they do, the people (and banks!) that need to sell set the market.
April 21st, 2008 at 8:21 am
Broker David @ M & M yields this stat: The metropolitan area with the largest number of millionaires = Los Angeles, CA.
The second largest population = Cook county, Ill.
Third most millionaire population = OC, CA.
The money is ALREADY here.
April 21st, 2008 at 8:36 am
dude, the ferrari is worth every penny!!! don’t own one but i get to drive new ones all the time. i would buy a ferrari before i bought an over-priced condo/townhome/sfr in so cal. i wouldn’t even get insurance, just a half million dollar bond and list it as office equipment.
April 21st, 2008 at 8:38 am
One posative report (by a realtor) does not make a trend. maybe the free-fall is slowing down , but I bet if these houses close and the median drops because of it , people will go back to the sidelines.
April 21st, 2008 at 8:39 am
I do not hate agents, though I see them as salespeople who are trying to push their product (homes) on me. I think it is wise for people, especially the first time buyer types, to do the work themselves because it is easy to be taken advantage of.
April 21st, 2008 at 8:43 am
The money is definitely here. I work with high net worth individuals and know that OC has a lot of money that will be invested in one of the best assets money can buy RE! Many Investors are now buying. Interest rates and inventory are great.
I think it is amusing to read some Bloggers say that not until prices come down further will they buy. You should not buy in OC and move to where you can afford to live. I have read that you can buy some great homes in the inland empire. Maybe many of you that say that the prices are still too high here should move out there until you can get a better job that pays a higher income to support the purchase of a home in OC. Since a huge population can afford to buy and will eventually buy many homes that will stablize this RE market.
April 21st, 2008 at 8:44 am
DonS, so what you’re saying is that all the millionaires in OC are going to buy all the condos that are $300k? Get a clue.
April 21st, 2008 at 8:49 am
I am agent and I have been pushing people not to buy for 4 years now. But I really think that we will see a turnaround in sales this summer. I’m confident that prices should be stable or decline for another year. But… with people paying 50K a year to income taxes, they are ready to buy to save on their taxes. If one can buy a decent condo for 300K or a house for 400K, they will be sold. The real estate investment era is over for now. This summer will begin the regular home buying cycle.
April 21st, 2008 at 8:55 am
foreclosure and sales info for all of CA, year to date:
Jan 08- April 08
Total Foreclosures Available: 216,985
Number of Sales: 5,764
Avg. Foreclosures Sales Price: $322,463
Avg. Savings (average percentage below market value that buyers are saving on foreclosure properties in a given area): 27%
April 21st, 2008 at 8:55 am
john g Says:
April 21st, 2008 at 8:38 am
—One posative report (by a realtor) does not make a trend—
Funny, the weather is reported by weathermen…sports are reported by well, sports reporters…news is reported by newscasters…earnings are reported by companies (enron aside, the overwhelming majority are honest).
So the discredit to a RE agent who has been in this area for a very long time is an error in judgment at best. Don’t paint with a broad brush…you lose control very quickly.
April 21st, 2008 at 8:59 am
Mulliganville ,
The answer to your question is that Realtor’s are loathed is similar to why used car salesmen are… because of peoples’ experience with them! For a long long time, there was no real viable alternative and they would take large sums of money (fees) for doing very little, often times, and I’d say much more often than not, putting their own self-interest, before their clients. Stated more clearly, I dislike most realtors b/c they purport to have the best interests of their client in mind, when they have NO fiduciary duty or obligation to them and therefore will almost always put their own interests first.
To a realtor, there is never a bad time to buy, obviously, b/c their income depends on it. The problem is that there are a lot in our society that are not all too educated, and when they brand themselves as “experts”, those not-too-educated tend to listen. The fact is, while some are experts and knowledgable, most are not. Many have very little education, and did nothing more than take a quick weekend class or online class and an easy test to get a ’salesperson’ qualification.
The result is situations like now where people can claim they were ‘duped’ by their realtors and mortgage broker, and we’re in this whole mess we’re in now, with talks of bailouts etc.
If there was ever a time in this world when it was a bad time to buy, and it was patently obvious it was a bad time, it was from 2005 -2007 , and even sooner, when everyone and their dog knew prices were way too high and unsupportable, where people had to lie (income) and make “adjusted” payments to stay in on a hope and a prayer that they could one day refinance or sell. But no, almost every realtor was saying buy, buy, buy! Why, b/c that’s more money for them, for doing even less work.
In a few years, realtors as we know them will be gone. There is too much technology and alternatives coming on line to make a flat 3% regardless of the work, a thing of the past.
Bottom line, any time you pretend to put my best interests at heart… I’m not going to like you much.
note/disclaimer, I have several realtors in my family.
April 21st, 2008 at 9:01 am
Chris: the really wealthy ones will buy mortgages.
April 21st, 2008 at 9:02 am
Mulligan,
Recently bought a 3-Series. It was worth it.
Looked at houses recently, again. Not worth it.
Rental lease was up — no increase and no demand for new lease…………continuing to pay less than half what it would cost for a comparable purchase IS worth it.
So let me get this straight. Sales are half normal, but because they are up a bit is cause for celebration. Probably some buyers today are of the same mindset of those who created the problem we are working through now.
They too will learn………it’s not about a perceived opportunity, it’s about affordability. ……..Which is related to the rent/purchase ratio.
April 21st, 2008 at 9:03 am
Steve Thomas has been providing this data for a long time. He’s only been slandered for it since it turned promising. He is simply reporting the facts on the ground. Live with it.
April 21st, 2008 at 9:05 am
Chris states it well, No doubt there are more millionaires here than a lot of places. Almost all will admit there is a lot of money here, but as capitalism goes, it’s concentrated with a few. Those few couldn’t care less about starter homes and non-luxury/vacation condos. Get real.
Again, bulls are being thrown off by the aggregate as opposed to the individual transaction level. Supply and demand is one buyer and one seller, AT A SPECIFC PRICE POINT. The millionaire ain’t buying up all the $500K basic starter homes. So, that leaves us poor joe’s, i.e. the majority to ’supply the demand’ at $500K. Guess what, that’s too expensive for the masses, and even for many professional households who don’t want their life plan to be exotic loans with a hope and a prayer.
April 21st, 2008 at 9:06 am
The claim that realtors serve the uneducated is without merit. The richest, smartest, wealthiest people on the planet wouldn’t do a deal without one. You people are simply trying to find a scapegoat for your problems.
April 21st, 2008 at 9:09 am
jj,
I love it!
You just came up with the new slogan for the NAR:
“Realtors! Pretending to put your best interests at heart.”
April 21st, 2008 at 9:13 am
JJ–
So let me get this straight…one does research on a car before they purchase it. They do not rely on the salesman to tell them whether to by or not. Why does that ridiculous notion apply here? The thing is: when you are selling your home, you do not just want to let anyone in your home to view it. It takes an agent of sorts to facilitate the traffic. Unless you WANT to host all visitors yourself, you will be listing with an agent. You can choose redfin, but they make you do ALL of the work yourself. It all depends on what you are willing to pay for and/or do yourself.
Most areas are dominated by the 80/20 rule…20% of the agents do 80% of the business. I would wager that those 20% are straight shooters, very professional, and work mostly on referral business.
I personally think it goes back to a bit of jealousy at the proposition that some of them earn ungodly money. They do and they earn it.
April 21st, 2008 at 9:15 am
You may be competing with other offers on bank owned homes.. but they are other lowball offers and the bank is willing to deal. The banks are leading the market lower.
I still think there is a flaw with Mr. Thomas stats as others have already pointed out we aren’t seeing the pull through. But I am patient and willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. I look forward to significantly better numbers in the months ahead.
April 21st, 2008 at 9:15 am
It is important for buyers to realize that there are two different ways to measure “the market”.
Realtors ™, mortgage brokers, title insurers, etc. are worried about sales VOLUME. Since they are repeat players who survive by taking a cut of each sale and price affects revenue only modestly.
Buyers and sellers are concerned about sales PRICES. Since they are one-time players.
Steve’s report is about sales VOLUMES. Don’t be deceived buyers, this is not a good time to buy. Wait six months to a year, and save $50,000 or more.
“By the way, for every 1% that interest rates increase, it erases approximately all of the benefits of waiting for property values to decrease 10%. The payments are virtually identical.”
Steve Thomas loses all credibility with this moronic statement.
April 21st, 2008 at 9:17 am
There sure is a bunch of stupid talk in here this morning.
Sorry Permabulls, we’re not even close to a real estate bottom. After all, the last bubble took about 60 months from top to trough … we’re about 18 months from the top of this ponzi scheme. If anything, this bubble will likely be deeper due to more job losses than last time and a further stretched home buyer.
April 21st, 2008 at 9:19 am
some of you people are seriously crazy. If the index/data supports your view wave it and shout hoorah! IF the index/data disagrees with your theory — loudly shout down the messenger. Data is just data, as long as it is measured and reported consistently it should be unemotional and detached.
I have previously mentioned that I think that Mr. Thomas index is the most forward looking of the indexes as Dataquick is a couple of months behind and personally I think NOTS and NODS are almost all in the MLS as short sales months prior to them being reported by RealtyTrac or other foreclosure reports.
SO as an unbiased / detached observer of this data, bears and bulls alike have reaons to cheer. THe bulls: its not as bad as it was. Transactions are up, while inventory is flat. The bears: yes transactions are up compared with the last few months, but they are still WAY WAY WAY off historical levels.
The story now is continued falling prices, but maybe not COLLAPSING prices as was the case last winter.
Stay tuned in, and don’t tune out data that conflcts with your opinion. It is neither good to be a perma-bull nor perma-bear.
April 21st, 2008 at 9:20 am
pdu–
Don’t buy until you feel it is right. I would never want anyone to purchase anything unless they were comfortable with it.
I would encourage all of you to go back to 2000 for your zip, find the median price, and bring it to current at 5% gains annually, about the normal rate of appreciation in socal the last 25 years or so. You will find we are very close if not on in several areas. Are we in yours?
April 21st, 2008 at 9:23 am
Roger, I will be interested to see what happens when this demand Steve Thomas is talking about now shows up in the data (in May perhaps?). What kind of homes are selling, and for what prices? If the homes that are selling are sold by the bank, what will that do to prices?
From what I have personally seen, the homes that are selling are either very low cost, or very expensive. I don’t know what it is like all around the county.
April 21st, 2008 at 9:28 am
Despite what you hear:
1.