Numbers from the Southern California Multiple Listing Service show that total proceeds from existing home sales last month amounted to just over half of what home sellers reaped in March 2007, the Pacific West Association of Realtors reports.
Orange County homebuyers paid $927 million to buy 1,409 homes purchased through the MLS last month, compared to $1.8 billion in total proceeds paid in March 2007, SoCal MLS figures show. That’s a decrease of 48.6%.
The average price of an Orange County home was 11.5% lower last month than the year before, while the number of homes sold fell 42%.
Buyers paid $712 million for detached homes (down 45%) and $215 million for condos, townhouses and other types of attached homes (down 58%).
Although the total number of O.C. homes sold through the MLS was down 42% from the year before, March sales were at the highest level since August, when the credit crunch pinched buyers’ ability to get home loans.
Oh, Come on! Isn’t this just a new way to say “prices are dropping”? This garbage just proves that you can make non-sensical “Statistics” out of any random data you choose! Hmmm, let’s see: The NUMBER of home sales are DOWN over the last year AND the prices are all down….I’ll bet that I can PROVE that the TOTAL value of HOMES actually FELL with such data! Boy, am I a GENIUS or what? C’mon Jon! Are you running out of material to throw on this blog? Prices are DROPPING! We GET IT!!! Quit CREATING new and ridiculous ways to show this…it’s pretty apparent and has been for a year and a half!
Hi John,
Is there going to be a follow-up story regarding the actual number of property tax delinquencies? How many homeowners missed last Friday’s deadline?
The numbers in the story above were sourced from the Pacific West Association of Realtors by way of the MLS. To be honest … I don’t consider either of these entities objective enough to supply trustworthy data. Seems like their year over year number for price decline is a bit small at ONLY 11.5% versus the other sources.
When I sold my house, I recall that I had the option of whether I wanted our sales price reported to the MLS. Hey, do all the foreclosure sales and auction purchases get reported into the MLS, hmmmm? (no) Yeah, that’s what I thought. Even if you were to believe their diluted/incomplete numbers … that’s a lot of bacon that isn’t makin’ it to the table.
The importance of the statistic is that real estate broker commissions, appraisal fees, etc. will be down a comparable amount, and such real estate related income was a primary driver of the economy during the boom.
What this amounts to is more jobs lost. So, it isn’t just the same as saying prices dropped.
Interestingly, the “average” price only dropped 10%, while the median is down 20%.
‘Same song, second verse. Could get better but it;s gonna get worse.”
Where have I heard this before?
please notice how gilligan thoughtful shockg and the rest
of the permabulls will avoid this thread like paris
hilton avoids a library hurry blogger get the bulls
one of those realtor pie in the sky wealth creation out
of thin air articles theyre counting on you
rants,
i am renting and looking for a home.
i am working as a rn for a large hospital in central oc.
you mistake me for truthiness. i don’t think she blogs here anymore.
Truthi-
Yes, you are getting swept up in the abbreviation of truthiness, thoughtful, etc.
You may want to choose a new “handle”, or just keep reminding us who you are not.
Bloodinthestreets-
I agree. Jon, when do we get the report of what % of March sales volume of 1409 sales was due to short sales or foreclosures?
We need to know what the volume of “normal” sales was; otherwise what out! Thoughtful is going to be waving that “we just hit bottom” (month after month after month after month).
I agree LarryP, this is regurgitated garbage. I’ll wait for the Dataquick(slow) numbers. And for the umpteenth time: foreclosures are NOT included in anyone’s numbers. Marcia, dear shrew, don’t worry your pretty little head over “normal” sales versus not. It makes no difference, sales are sales are sales are sales. And they’re picking up steam week by week. What a biatch.
I guess realtor “salaries” decreased by 48.6%.
That’s a harsh pay cut.
Isn’t there somthing like 1 realtor for every 6 people in SoCal?
Can’t remember the exact ratio, but it’s something crazy like that.
The pool of income in the OC has decreased dramatically year over year. Since roughly 20% of our local economy *was* based on real estate, a 50% contraction in market size would qualify as a nasty local recession. Help me with the math gilligan, 20% of 50% is a 10% contraction in our loacl economy…….. ouchie
When you start looking at HELOC abuse, I mean spending, I”m sure the actual contraction is even worse.
Here’s the math you should look at. In YL, where I live, one of the highest household income cities in the country of it’s size, the average household income is around $128,000 or so. Households with this income are really sticking there necks out if they buy a house over $500,000. A lost job or divorse will wipe this family out in short manner. The banks are now painfully aware of this and are not about to loan anyone money that exceeds a realistic loan to income ratio. In the past the banks did not care, because they resold the loans to the clowns on Wall Street. It is this lack of affordability in combination with the banks being wise with their money that will pull the prices down at least another 20%. You can take that to the bank.
You forgot terrorist attacks, RealtorDaveE. I bet that would make the bears wet their pants with excitement.
Thanks Realtor Dave for leading us to the book of Job and Matthew to get a little more perspective on life. Many of us need a guiding light in today’s uncertain times.
Average price of an OC home down 11.5%. This number seems correct. I came up with 13% from the dqnews.com numbers. If you remember correctly, the denews shows the median is down more than 20%. But, we all know this 20% number is bogus. Go read dqnews.com, and they will tell you this 20% number is distorted by pockets of foreclosures.
This same dqnews.com data that showed zips with an average price at or above 600K are up more than 5% YOY. I have not seen this figure disputed. That means others have checked it and it is right.
rants Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 8:06 am
I never mentioned the name truthi
I doubt it was intentional, Rants, but I think you are mistaken. This is one of a few posts where you mention Truthi.
rants Says:
April 14th, 2008 at 2:56 pm
thoughtless/ TRUTHI I could search for the post where
you/ truthi stipulated youd bought in 2006- it doesnt matter-
youre not worth the time or the energy- phony hypocrites
never are - the only thing youve created is a very vivid
imagination as evidenced by the hours you drone on
with the same empty blather my 10 year old could out debate you
“Buyers paid $712 million for detached homes (down 45%) and $215 million for condos, townhouses and other types of attached homes (down 58%).”
Did it just say that condo/townhome sales fell 58% while detached SFR is down “only” 45%?
Didn’t the bulls argue that the drop in median price has to do with more condos and townhomes being sold vs. SFR?
News: More NOD’s in some “upper income” coastal areas!
This isnt anything new. It will continue to get worse, who knows how long, but probably at least another 6 months.
I found something interesting on ziprealty. I found a place that I am interested in, but I think the price is a little more than I want to pay. I can afford it, but if I can save another 100-200 a month that would be great.
Anyhow, they have a tool on there that you can put in an “asking price” and it will compare it to other asking price for homes in that range.
So the price asking price is I think 365K. I put in 350K. It came back saying my offer price was higher than what the average sale price below asking price is. It said that the average sale price currently is around 92% of asking price.
So it seems even the asking price is still off of market demand. That would mean that the asking price per sq. ft. is probably lower.
Now granted this is in the “extreme low end” of the market at least according to some of you, so maybe it doesnt mean anything. It seems that many bulls here discount that there are homes that sell for under 600K and there are cities that dont touch the ocean. I know I know hard to fathom since it is so different here.
All and all it seems that prices are coming more and more in line with incomes and rents. So affordability is falling into place.
So I have one question for most of the bulls. At what point will you concede that most of the bears where right?
What is the breaking point. Does the market have to be 40% or more off peak for you to feel that the bears have been correct?
With the entire market being more than 20% off of peak..and you adjust that for inflation it is probably another 2-3%, putting the market at say 23% off of peak. That of course means there are already homes that have sold close to 40% off of peak.
What will it take for bulls to see the reality of the market.
I have put myself out there to say that I think the market will go to around 30% off of peak for all markets and level off from there.
To me almost a loss of 1/3 is pretty substantial…is it crash? I guess that depends on if it is your house that loss value or not.
Jimmy
You said:
“This same dqnews.com data that showed zips with an average price at or above 600K are up more than 5% YOY. I have not seen this figure disputed. That means others have checked it and it is right.”
I did dispute your number in that thread:
“Let’s pretend for a minute that the average of the medians means something.
Last year, there were 44 zip codes that had a median over $600,000. This year, there are only 26. Of those 26 zip codes above $600,000 median, only 14 had a price increase over last year.
If we figure out the market for homes over $600,000 from last year to this year, we see that the average median price (again, whatever that means) has DROPPED 8.9% from last year to this year.”
Samson,
I agree with you regarding the “affordability” of property here in OC. Obviously, the less expensive, the more affordable. And, as I’ve said here before, I think there are plenty of folks like yourself who are able to buy, but are waiting for some sign of stability. As far as OC being “special”, it is a coastal community, which simply makes it more desirable, thus more expensive. There is a lot of money here and a lot of long term residents, so it doesn’t get hit as hard when there is a slowdown in the economy. Not immune, just not quite as hard hit. (See the IE for comparison). As far as the bears being right: Well, it depends on your definition of a bear. If a bear is someone who simply is not high on the RE market at present, then there are a lot more bears on this site than you think, including myself. But, if you’re talking about the extreme bears, who predict a housing Armageddon like no other, then no. it’s not going to happen. But, discounting the extremists, I don’t think we’ll know who was right until the turn-around happens. If it turned right now, who would be “right”, bears or bulls?
Rants:
Knife catchers…….ahahahahha
National Buble
BLa BLa BLa…..
VOR:
I Scott the fortune teller say no bottom till December 2009
PDU & MAV:
Lets see if I go down with all the other fools…????
Should know by the 1st of May if I am the next Tsunami casualty..!!
Samson:
Your posting was timely. You touched on a subject that I’ve often thought of regarding this blog and I’m waiting on a couple of faxes so I have a few minutes available.
In your post, you said: “So I have one question for most of the bulls. At what point will you concede that most of the bears where(sic) right?”
I’m not intending to single you out. I’ve seen your postings for over a year now and recognize you as someone who is level-headed and has been patiently waiting for the right opportunity and time to purchase a home. But, there is something in your posting that is symptomatic of many of those who post on this blog; I don’t typically read any other blogs, so I don’t know if it is prevalent throughout this method of communication.
What I’ve seen is many people wanting, possibly even needing, recognition from others that they were right about something. I remember laughing at a poster when the Fed did their first cut last year and as I recall, it was 1/2 point. This guy posted and posted that he alone had predicted both the cut and its scale. Never mind that speculation was huge that a cut was likely at the meeting and that it would likely be 1/4 or 1/2 point. He so badly needed affirmation that he was right! After I stopped laughing, I felt bad for the guy. Could he really be that insecure? Was his life that shallow? Does it empower him to seek acknowledgement that he guessed correctly?
It appears that this desire or need for recognition permeates throughout the postings on this blog, among “bull” and “bear” alike. It also appears that a logical discussion with differing opinions is typically the casualty. People get so worked up about someone having a contradictory opinion that insults fly fast and furious. It’s easy to fall into the trap; I’ve done it myself on a few occassions. Certain personalities tend to shine through the texting and can be so irritating that it is difficult to avoid getting down in the mud with them and responding in kind.
This blog could be an interesting exchange of ideas; at times, it is. But so much of what is posted is just mental masturbation that cannot be proved right or wrong until after the fact. As with many others, I’m guessing that we are in a recession. But, we won’t know for certain until we look back and see a decline in the GDP for at least two consecutive quarters. I’m guessing that we are nowhere near the bottom of the market, but we won’t know until we are looking back.
People have differing opinions. Sometimes their logic may be flawed or their data inaccurate or they may just not be that intelligent. And there may actually be more than one person who has a contradictory view, despite repeated protests to the contrary on this site. It is easier for me to believe that there are multiple “bulls” on this site than to imagine that one person has absolutely no life and can spend days, weeks, and months on this blog 24/7. Who has the time other than someone like National Bubble who apparently uses this blog to draw people to his web site which appears to be his livelihood?
Were the “bears” right about the market collapse? My initial reaction is, “Who in their right mind could think otherwise?” I sell REO properties and have some listings that are priced as much as 45% below their selling prices less than 18 months ago (and that is listing price versus selling price so who knows what the final percentage of sales price to sale price will be?) But, my listings reflecting such huge declines have been in some of the less prestigious neighborhoods in OC, leaving room for someone to speculate that more discretionary priced product isn’t incurring the same depressed conditions. Personally, I think it is only a matter of time for increasing defaults to climb into higher priced housing. I grew up in an affluent section of the county and know that many of those who appear to be the wealthiest are actually sitting on a house of cards. Some have the ability to keep the illusion of wealth going longer than others, but not everyone who lives near the ocean is sitting on a personal fortune.
Again, Samson, this was not meant as an accusation or insult directed at you; your post just fell into this same trap of posters looking for affirmation that they are right and someone else is wrong. This type of misguided discourse isn’t limited to business. I’ve seen similar types of breakdowns in communication at venues like church over topics like pre-trib versus mid- or post-tribulation.
That took much longer than a few minutes so I’ve got to get back to business.
mental masterbation? lol….
OC,
No offense taken. I think you read way to much into my reason for asking the question. I could care less if anyone agrees with me or not.
In fact I was more so looking to find at what point will many of the bulls out there find a middle ground and except that the market was over inflated and the “correction” as predicted by some was accurate.
Id like to get past the petty bickering and come to an agreement on where the market is and where it is really headed, based upon fundamentals.
I guess for me I would be the first to say I was wrong. In fact, I dont think until recently that I really had a strong empirical opinion and where the market would end up until more recently.
Maybe I did fall into a trap of sorts. It seems many only respond to such direct questions. It seems like a simple answer. It is all based on opinion. What is a crash to one is a soft landing to another.
I just dont often see alot of facts posted to back up many of the statements out there on either side. So it is certainly a matter of personal opinion. There just has to be a breaking point for someone where they can concur that maybe they where a little wrong about the direction of the market and can accept that things are not going so well.
I don’t know if it has feelings - do you want cheese on it or not?
Recognition? We’re anonymous here for the most part, eh!
(I like your answer Samson. A good personal quality: a desire to try to understand an opposing perspective on a matter before making critical decisions, and a desire to build consensus … within limits).
Samson:
Thanks for the response. Like I said, this wasn’t really directed at you. But after having read this blog on and off for over a year now, this concept was something that I meant to address. I would assume that anyone who was read this blog for any period of time has seen certain people, both “bulls” and “bears”, trying to ram their opinions down other people’s throats; I don’t count you among them.
Bloodinthestreets:
We are anonymous, while at the same time we are known by our monikers and many are repeat (chronic?) posters who appear to take great pride in proving to others how incredibly intelligent they are. If only I could be as smart as so many of the posters consider themselves to be.
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