O.C. real estate/finance jobs off 10% from peak

February 29th, 2008, 1:03 pm · 44 Comments · posted by Jon Lansner

State job counters released their revised job stats, and the new math finds extra agony in O.C.’s real estate and finance businesses. By your blogger’s analysis of this new count, local bosses in real estate/finance work have cut a total 26,000 workers, or 10%, from the O.C. property-related industries since employment in these niches peaked in September 2006. The true pain is likely greater as many real estate/finance workers are self-employed or contractors who aren’t in the state’s tally.

Looking at the revised stats on an annual average basis, the new figures found 5,500 more real estate/finance job losses vs. old data. That means 2007, on average, had 10,000 fewer O.C. real estate/finance workers than ‘06, a 4% drop. As of January ‘08, real estate/finance employment (234,600) was at a three-year low. (CLICK HERE to read how the same new job count found a hard year-end slide in overall O.C. employment.)

Key contributors to the real estate/finance jobs recession are no surprise. Lenders, primarily mortgage makers, have been ravaged as their O.C. employment is off 17,500 job, or 32%, from its peak in December 2005. Construction work is down 11,700 jobs, or 10.6%, from its peak in September 2006.

Here’s a look at key slice of the O.C. real estate/finance world in terms of January employment and how far off that job count is vs. each item’s individual, recent peak in each niche …

Job slice	Last mo.	Vs. Peak	Vs. Peak
Construction	98,700	-11,700	-10.6%
• Construct buildings	23,300	-1,800	-7.2%
• Heavy construction	8,100	-1,100	-12.0%
• Specialty trades	67,300	-8,900	-11.7%
Lending activities	37,600	-17,500	-31.8%
• Bank lending	18,500	-500	-2.6%
• Non-bank lending	14,100	-10,400	-42.4%
• Lending support	5,000	-8,700	-63.5%
Other finance	10,800	-1,700	-13.6%
Real estate/leasing	38,400	-1,200	-3.0%
• Real estate	31,900	-1,000	-3.0%
• Leasing	6,500	-2,000	-23.5%
Bldg. services	32,600	-800	-2.4%
Building supply	11,400	-1,300	-10.2%
Farm	5,100	-5,300	-51.0%
All real-estate related	234,600	-26,400	-10.1%
All other O.C. jobs	1,262,700	-25,700	-2.0%
All O.C. jobs	1,497,300	-46,500	-3.0%

Posted in: Real estate jobs

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mav says:

February 29, 2008 at 1 pm

it’s a hard knock life for us….

it’s a hard knock life ………

shocker says:

February 29, 2008 at 2 pm

The numbers are in fact way worse than that, a lot of people employed in that sector were self-employed.

shocker,
what would be even worse is if you showed the total amount of salary lost

we are already in an OC recession

for Scotty-A this means rent declines

Scott A says:

Mav:
I went from luke warm to Hot.
Drop albums no stop….
Went sraight to the top….

Flipped gold to make a profit….
Made the rents sky rocket….
That haters tried….. to make me stop it….

Your turn

bpsqwerty says:

one idea is do finance, just don’t do it for a real estate / finance company. works for me. then again I’m sort of a hybrid - that and IT.

mildly funny, though I don’t get the “50 50″ line. they’re makin 50 what, K? and whats the 2nd 50

i was just touche-ing some of the song from Anne that pseudo bulls had posted recently……

you can rock it jay-z if you want

Thoughtful says:

Ho-hum, already priced in.

Aurthur Jensen…

any more Lansner spottings playing “we didn’t start the fire” with a fiddle… from an I-5 over pass?

mav: though I agree with you scott seems to have found a little niche of the market which is highly predictable and will always remain in relative demand. that said, skyrocketing rents through a recession and enormous housing crash that results in enormous lost jobs, oversupply of units and cheap rents is based on nothing than pure arrogance. it’s called pricing yourself out of the market.

the old adage “Bulls make money, Bears make money, Pigs get slaughtered” is a little extreme for this example, but still applies. the rents will still be there but it’s not going to be anywhere near the increases seen in years past. what remains to be seen is if mr. S places his bet as called, or just nudges it a bit higher than last year.

bpswqwerty:
50 cents on the dollar. ….
When im out I pop my collar…..
Tell the women….give me a hollar…….
When I rock the Benz….. they say top dollar…..

Baby baby….

ahahahahahahah

Mav;
Lighten up…
I am a bear on RE short term……
Its friday….Have some fun !!!!!

bpsqwerty,

basically Scotty-A just wants to avoid a vacancy…. landlords who can avoid vacancies avoid rent declines during a recession

vacancies during a recession yield rent declines

Scotty-A,

i’m totally light

out of curiosity how leveraged are you? what is your strategy for buying a home with your debt to asset ratio in this lending market?

we have seen some examples on this board where people with multiple properties need 25-30% down payments to buy in this climate

David Poggi says:

I work for a company and all our clients are loan officers. The numbers are probably much worse. I’d say it’s closer to 35% if you factor all those who were self-employed or worked for small shops. Also add in all the realtors who stopped trying to sell homes and instead took other jobs.

February 29, 2008 at 3 pm

true D Poggi

Mav:
I already answered this question for you…..but here it goes.

Bought R-2 in 2000 for 600,000
Appraised in 2007 for 1,200,000

Wife bought in 2000 for 225,000
Appraised in 2007 for 510,000

Bought in BBL in 2005 for 320,000
Appraised in 2006 for 420,000

All 30 year fixed all Bi-Weekly Equity Excellerator programs

You do the math…..

Now your turn to bust out some Jay Z
my blogging brother from anotha motha

ahahahahahahah lo l lol lol lol lol

Jon says:

Thank goodness for the recession. Finally the scamming real estate agents and brokers are off the streets of OC. They were the ones who contributed to their own demise because of their greed and distributing misinformation, i.e, ‘home prices always appreciate’ , ‘buy now or be priced out forever’, ‘increase your offer or else some else will counter higher’.

Guess what, the remaining RE agents are still telling potential buyers the same crap.

blackbox says:

Yep, this latest ponzi scheme found many without a chair when the music stopped! Bad planning, saving, and logic is causing much pain in the idustrial/housing complex.
Next time try to save some money in good times……
A new generation will learn this lesson the hard way.

Bruce says:

February 29, 2008 at 4 pm

I think I will get rich by selling bladder packs to bloggers.

Samson says:

February 29, 2008 at 5 pm

Welcome to the 70’s. Its called stagflation and will probably only get worse.

When our president is so disconnected from the real world, that he hasnt anything about $4.00 a gallon gas we are in big trouble.

Dina says:

Maybe with the recession some of the illegals will go back where they came from and traffic will lighten up!

Sorry, I just went into a restaurant in Dana Point and no one spoke any English. It was irksome.

Bill says:

February 29, 2008 at 7 pm

Frank Cochrane President of Investment Timing Consultants:

What we’re entering here is this is going to be a grinding bear market, something that’s going to take many quarters and a couple of years to sort of unfold for a number of reasons.

I think we’re entering something unlike we’ve seen in a long, long time, probably the closest I could say was maybe — other than the early ’30s would be the ‘73-’74 time frame.

I would say 2008 will be like 1973 and 2009 will be like 1974 in that 1974 was the worst and that the market declined by almost 30 percent that year. I think that will happen in 2009 primarily because if you accept the theory that perhaps all the stimulus that we’re getting now will have been for naught and there won’t be that much ammo left in the machine guns, so to speak, to stop these things, and that will cause a problem in 2009.

God says:

February 29, 2008 at 8 pm

I made 125K last year. Will make more this year. I plan on buying your house in a few months! Haha

KJ says:

Not only will real estate agents, mortgage brokers, financial advisers (those who aren’t fee-only) and appraisers face the worst headwinds of an economy going south but they will emerge from this as professionals who are NOT TO BE TRUSTED.

Hilfyer says:

February 29, 2008 at 11 pm

hwood:
With all due respect, stop typing in caps.

That is distracting from main discussion here.

Scott A:
You seem to be another delusional or desparate permabull here and your agenda is to distract from the discussion here with your ‘rents are going up’ crap.

I live in nice part of Lake Forest (Lake Forest North, close to Foothill Ranch). All apartment complexes in this area are offering rents of about 25% below their 2006 highs.

Also Irvine company is negotiating rents.

Since this blog started about two years ago, bears predicted this downturn and it is following the script exactly as bears predicted. It is funny to see that not a day goes by without a bull saying the bottom is here or near. No wonder those who believed this ‘Bull’ headed wisdom during last two years and bought are walking out of their houses in droves.

jake says:

March 1, 2008 at 1 am

Another day in the fantasy life of Scott A,

Good morning honey. Did you sleep well, I dreamt all day about raising rents. In my dream I had 5 houses that I bought in 2000 when I was 30 years old and a genius. In my dream I was a successful broker who was paid to be on a blog all day.

How are kids, I hope Unit 1 does well in school today. Can you pick up Unit 2 at soccer?

Oh honey I am feeling a bit Randy, look my rent is straight up!

Well oh look at the time. Wow got to go. Time is rent.

Scott A exits the bedroom and gets into the “rent mobile” and leaves the “rent cave”!

There are rents to collect today Scott thinks to himself ( and blogs to others).

He sees another unhappy neighbor and cries out. Beautiful morning how are your rentals? Got to go I have blogging to do!

Scott stops off at the local Star Bucks and gets his usual.

Jane, give me a Laredo Latte with plenty of froth. Hey Jane did you know I have 5 rentals and that I raise rents every year. Yeah does that make you frisky, cause I got to visit one of my empty rentals and we could you know we could well get financial. No commitment , I just want to rent.

Jane says: Scott A you are such a kidder, I bet you blog your bull every day on a blog.

Scott A: How did you know. Oh Oh time flies got to get to my blogging job. May your rents go up Jane!

Scott A: arrives at his imaginery work place (another star bucks) in his imaginary benz ( a 1987 honda accord)

Scott A looks at all the other customers and yells out. Morning people I am glad you could all make it to work today. I all want you to work hard. Time is rent.

They all look at Scott A the weirdo and wonder when they will change his meds but hey this is socal and the weather is warm and the nuts are happy.

Scott A pulls out his laptop and starts to blog.

So a big shout out to thoughtful:
I have 5 rental units and I am going to raise the rents on all of them,
did you know that? I learned from mother who tread through snow in SOcal that you got to buy at the bottom of the market in your mind so you can fantasize all day about collecting rents.

Thoughtful: Yes I blog all day myself now that I am unemployed bitter real estate agent. It so nice we have each other to talk to. It so nice we are each other. A bit confusing though.

Scot A: But confusion is what we want to do. It is all we are. Why else would we post constantly the same thing that even if true has no meaning since it cannot ever be verified and even if it could would be a useless example.

Thoughtful: I never thought about that I guess I am not so thoughtful.

Scott A; Well I got to get back to blogging. It could be that no one know s that in my mind I have 5 rentals and I am going to raise rents. I got to tell them again. Maybe they are not listening.

Thoughful: You are genius. I am genius. We are geni. We are one.
We are troll.

Scott A: Lets post again maybe someone has not heard my story!
Yeah post again it is free, who cares how many people will have to read this dribble.

Thoughtful: The dribble we post the more we can confuse people and tie up this blog. Scott A we are geni and we are angry.

Scott A: go girl, I mean guy, I mean girl, oh I am confusing myself. I will just go back to mediatating. Raise Rents, Raise Rents Raise rents. Now I am centered.

ANd the dream goes on!

Law_Student says:

March 1, 2008 at 10 am

Scott_A

What do you think those properties are worth today?
Do you believe the appraisals are on the high side?

Not worried at all, huh?
You have positive cash flow, plus income to cover your expenses without borrowing for a few years?

damn jake that was funny

yep….. our Scotty-A eats rents for breakfast, lunch, and dinner….. he showers in rents….. and uses rents to pay for Unit 1, 2, & 3’s college education….. conveniently Unit 1, 2, & 3 are paying rents and will probably get a rental increase.

ahhhh just another day in the life, trolling about rents

Law_Student,

Don’t worry Scotty-A …… AKA….. “Mr. Liquidity” has it all figured out.

By the time it makes sense to be a landlord the perma-bulls will have evaporated on this blog.

Until then, continue to pile up the cash.

The continuing and completely boring and annoying story of the fantasy landlord scott A. When we last saw Scott he was nervous chanting Raise Rents, Rasie Rents Raise rents.

But now it is the weekend and he has no need to get on and tell the bloggers that his mother had financial problems so he started to work when he was 18 and when he was 25 he bought like 3 rentals at the low point in the market and now he is sitting pretty raising rents.

He has no need to tell people on the weekend but if this was not the weekend then he would post about 10-20 times saying ..

his mother had financial problems so he started to work when he was 18 and when he was 25 he bought like 3 rentals at the low point in the market and now he is sitting pretty raising rents.

so that is good he can do something else since it is the weekend he does not have to tell us ….

He can just kick back in his rental and get out the old spread sheet and play with the numbers. Let see if I raise the rent by 6.77777777%
instead of 6.6623417589975 %then this will imply over the time until Jesus reappears on the earth to be aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa. 1753.9999485 dollars. That with his gold investments will put him in the front row of heaven with the other landlords and notable deceased businessmen. He thinks how fortunate he was to have finally bought before he died and now he has his own house in paradise. He pities the poor souls who never bought. For as he sees once a renter always a renter, a renter for eternity!

But he shakes his landlord head and gets back to reality. Not dead yet and I can still maybe accumulate some more rentals. The lord would have wanted it that way. And it is such a pious thing to do.
Scott is so pious that he gives up everthing for “rent”. But when the holidays are over he goes back to his old ways. Just business. Old school. Take from the poor and give to the rich. Bizzaro Robin hood.

But what to do today what to do? Maybe he and the wife will go watch
renters at a new complex. That is always fun. How about a game of monopoly? He can put up houses and raise the rents! Yaaaaaaa!
Maybe go to the ice rink and rent skates. It is not like buying but just to feel the pain of renting well that has got to make him feel bettter.
Oh and then there is Saturday night rent club with his whole host of imaginery names. Truth, Ken, Easy Money, sighbor whatever, voice of reason, etc etc etc etc. That is one weird crowd. And they all can meet in one closet. How weird. No maybe he’ll compose some more of those catchy rental songs. He worked on the last one for 8 weekends. They have to be just right. Wow the weekend is more work than collecting rent from foreigner! Anyways his rent is cut out for him this weekend.

And on Sunday he will go to the First Rental Church. Pray that rents go up.

The Lord works in mysterious ways!

March 1, 2008 at 11 am

Hey if you are going to moderate this blog would you consider moderating the endless posting of the troll.

Richard Head says:

March 1, 2008 at 3 pm

Jake, After that BS post how do you have the nerve to call others a troll. You are so obsessed with the word you are in fact the resident troll that everyone tries to ignore.

DigDoug says:

March 1, 2008 at 4 pm

we have a beautiful risk and reward system…that got messy with too many wage earners making too much in real estate related businesses from 2004-2006.

this is less of a recession…this is my best year for all of my businesses… and more of a proper correction. wage earners back to making wages. if you want to take all that you have and risk it on yourself with a business you are taking advantage of the blessing granted to you by our founding fathers.

otherwise, good luck, you will probably be begging for a lot of jobs over the next 10 years and you will be up against a sea of people doing the same.

good luck!

Richard Head, Thoughtful, truthi , arthur jensen etc etc etc

My anti troll posts are 1/50th of your troll posts. If you’ll stop i would be more than glad to stop pointing out your name switching over posting ways.

March 1, 2008 at 5 pm

By the way Dick Head,

I bet everyone enjoys your smutty mouth that you so cleverly display with your many names.

You just are way too intellectually intense for the rest of us!

shockg says:

March 1, 2008 at 8 pm

Bill, I hope your paying cash for your next flip since lenders aren’t going to finance homes ever again.

March 1, 2008 at 10 pm

shockg,

You hope I pay cash!

You poor ding dong, you really have no clue do you?

Go back to the archives, then maybe you’ll figure it out.

Slice	Price	Ch.	Sold	Ch.
House	$500,000	+18%	1,833	+11%
Condo	$290,000	+7%	881	+22%
New	$617,500	+24%	171	-17%
All OC	$435,000	+10%	2,885	+12%

Orange County Register