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Mid-Feb. O.C. home sales off 49%
February 29th, 2008, 12:01 am · 209 Comments · posted by Jon Lansner/ocregister.com
DataQuick’s freshest stats show this will certainly be the 29th straight month where buyers bought fewer O.C. homes than the year-ago period as mid-February O.C. home sales were off 49% from a year ago. If that pace for the 22 business days ended Feb. 13 holds for the full month, this month will mark the steepest year-over-year sales drop in DataQuick’s books that date to 1988. Pricing, off 14% from a year ago, runs at early 2004 levels. (See how six other indexes value O.C. homes HERE!) Here’s a look at the new stats by key slice …
| Slice | Price | Vs. ‘07 | Sales | Vs. ‘07 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| House | $575,000 | -14.2% | 770 | -47.8% |
| Condo | $365,500 | -18.8% | 313 | -43.3% |
| New* | $562,000 | +1.9% | 142 | -62.7% |
| All | $524,500 | -14.0% | 1,225 | -49.1% |
* Includes single-family homes, condos and recently converted apartments
PS: DataQuick’s stats track closed deals. Shoppers entered new deals at the fastest rate in six months, according to Aliso Viejo broker Steven Thomas. To read more, CLICK HERE!
February 29th, 2008 at 12:29 am
wow guess its time to raise rents again right scott
February 29th, 2008 at 4:59 am
Per DataQuick, Single Family Median Home Price:
2007
06/26= $735,000
06/30= $734,000
07/12= $725,000
07/17= $725,000
07/25= $720,000
07/31= $718,000
08/07= $719,000
08/15= $712,750
08/22= $710,000
08/30= $710,000
09/11= $700,000
09/14= $689,000
09/21= $675,000
09/26= $670,000
09/30= $655,000
10/12= $655,000
10/16= $660,000
10/23= $655,000
10/31= $650,000
11/08= $645,000
11/14= $645,000
11/20= $645,250
11/27= $649,000
11/30= $655,000
12/10= $640,000
12/14= $634,000
12/27= $610,000
12/31= $600,000
2008
01/07= $600,000
01/15= $595,000
01/23= $595,000
01/31= $583,250
02/07= $585,000
02/13= $575,000
February 29th, 2008 at 5:26 am
Finally the same level of zaniness on the way down as we saw on the way up. And still no significant impact on spending in the US. Either we are in denial, or this is the most resilient, fantastical economy to have ever existed.
February 29th, 2008 at 5:43 am
I am a housing bear………and it is hard to believe that volumes could sink this low in Orange County. The price declines were to be expected……………
February 29th, 2008 at 5:43 am
Hey, whats that pesky little + sign doing next to New Home Prices?
February 29th, 2008 at 6:46 am
Got to have a job before you can buy a house. What is it? 8,500 sub-primes jobs gone in less than a year? Add in the multiplier effect. What do have? A minimum of two yields a loss of 17,000 jobs in a year. That eliminates the need for 10,000 housing units. Supply and demand. How many flipping jobs have gone away? The paint stores and carpet folks are doing terrible. I have got to check the trains to San Diego as employers down here have alot of requirements for new employees.
February 29th, 2008 at 6:57 am
Looking pretty grim.
February 29th, 2008 at 7:14 am
Iowa is only down 3% from a year ago because our home prices have only gone up an average of 5% a year for the last 10 years. When you have huge appreciation every year, 20-30% per year this was bound to happen.
February 29th, 2008 at 8:01 am
but I thougth Gary Watts said we are close to the bottom.
February 29th, 2008 at 8:01 am
Recession here we come.
February 29th, 2008 at 8:09 am
So much for the “bottom” being reached when the permabulls said since the SFR median bumped up from $583K to $585K.
I see volume is up from last month. With prices falling, and a flurry of decent interest rates in January, I would expect that to be the case.
But now rates have gone back up, especially with both FNMA and Freddie Mac in financial crisis, and Congress making them “eat” more bad debt with the increase in the conforming loan rates.
The Fed lowering the rate is still like pushing on a string…its just making gas and commodity prices rise for the rest of us to save, as President Bush put it, “the investors and speculators”.
At least I was proud of President Bush yesterday, when he said he would veto the Foreclosure Bill passed out of Committee by both the Senate and House to allow bankruptcy judges to write down loan amounts on houses of folks who enter into bankruptcy. Can you imagine the risk premium that will be added? Particularly to those with low downs or on non-conforming loans.
I’m hoping by the time January rolls around, we won’t have to have this discussion again, if a Democrat ends up with the Presidency, and we have a Democratic House and Senate. That will prove as problematic as it was having a Republican President, House and Senate.
February 29th, 2008 at 8:09 am
Warning to all home sellers:
If you want to sale your home, it would be smart to price it at a 10% discount versus the most recent comps. If it doesn’t sale within 2 weeks, drop the price another 10%, and repeat if necessary.
February 29th, 2008 at 8:14 am
Clearing out the junk/repo homes.
February 29th, 2008 at 8:21 am
The dumpy areas are selling homes at lower prices and the higher end is barely selling. Hence the low median. It’s all about the mix of homes selling. if you guys want to believe you can get the same deals in the better areas, go ahead. Good luck.
February 29th, 2008 at 8:21 am
Oh, I thought everyone wants to live in OC
February 29th, 2008 at 8:29 am
Im looking at homes on my block in LF that were selling for a little over 600k at the peak and now i see asking prices at $430 soon to be $400k.
If this aint a crash I don’t know what is.
Hope they can keep long term rates low cause short term rates are not doing much to help slow the crash.
February 29th, 2008 at 8:30 am
Warning to all home sellers:
If you don’t need to sell, take your home off the market.
February 29th, 2008 at 8:34 am
Daddy Warbucks asked: “Hey, whats that pesky little + sign doing next to New Home Prices?”
The problem with the resale numbers shown above, is that they reflect sales activity in Nov/Dec 07, ( tradionally the deadest time of the year for resale.) which have just recently closed escrow. Escrows have picked up considerably since Jan 15th, in resale.
New homes, however, have a surge of activity each year’s end, to close the books with a bang - similar to new car dealers at the end of each month. So THEIR numbers reflect a end of year flurry of closed escrows. ( There were “deals” to close by year end, so subsequent closes of escrows, at similar prices, are different than those reflected for resales.)
February 29th, 2008 at 8:34 am
bass & treble,
no not everyone want to live in oc.
i for one is planning to sell my home in a few years and move away from here.
the world is just to big to live behind the oc curtain all your life.
February 29th, 2008 at 8:37 am
Shockg said: “The dumpy areas are selling homes at lower prices and the higher end is barely selling. Hence the low median. It’s all about the mix of homes selling. if you guys want to believe you can get the same deals in the better areas, go ahead. Good luck.”
Then enjoy the barely selling volume in the higher end. Sooner or later the higher end will adjust pricing to increase sales volume. That is if they want to sell, otherwise they will have to just stay put in denial.
February 29th, 2008 at 8:41 am
The Feds just keep making things worse. They are punishing the people who bought homes they could afford and saved their money. I live in a 900 sf condo and my car is 12 years old and they want me to “bail out” someone who bought a 2000 sf home they could not afford and probably have a new SUV in the driveway. Meanwhile my 401K is in the dumps and I am getting 1% on my savings. And I think it will get worse as the year goes on.
February 29th, 2008 at 8:44 am
RANTS
“Perma Deflation Bear”
I got a good one for you.
Its called the INFLATION song,
You will love to hate it.
Vs 1
Inflation we will go
Inflation we will go
Thank you bush and Fed
For slashing rate’s we will go
Vs2
Our dollar went to the Sh!*
Our dollar went to the Sh!*
Hi Ho A Marry o
Trade the dollar for the Peso !!!!!
VS 3
A raising rents we will go ”
A raising rents we wil go ”
Hi HO A MARRY O
A million new tenants in the market soooooooooo
A raising rents we will go’
aahhahahahahahahahahhahhaahhahahahahahahahah
lol lol lol lol lol lol lol lol lo llo lol lol lol lol lol lol l ahahahahahahh
Ribspliter.
February 29th, 2008 at 8:44 am
Rents are already dropping in OC outskirts like Brea, Anaheim Hills and Laguna Niguel. By summer we’ll see the same in the heart of coastal OC when school ends and fed-up people pack up and leave the area. Homes that can’t sell and sit empty don’t pay the mortgage. Rents will drop just to get anyone in there to cover costs. It’s happened everywhere else. Now it’s OC’s turn.
February 29th, 2008 at 8:45 am
So, Mr. Dood, are you saying this could be the begining of a slight upward bias in the market?
February 29th, 2008 at 8:50 am
You keep believeing that Daddy, and while you’re at it, go buy a few South OC homes for $700,000.
February 29th, 2008 at 8:50 am
i travel to china recently on a business trip.
it is getting harder to exchange the dollar for the yuan on the street now.
when the chinese are beginning to be afraid of the dollar. there is something wrong there.
soon 1 dollar will = 1 peso.
February 29th, 2008 at 8:51 am
Let’s see ….. Single family residences (SFR) have dropped 22 percent since the week of June 26, 2006 (thank you Lee in Irvine). That’s a price decrease rate of about 1.1 percent per month over a time period of 20 months.
This year - 2008 will likely be the peak of the adjustable loan resets and the peak of the bank foreclosures, so one might expect the price decrease trend to persist despite the new Fed. government efforts to avoid this scenario. At this 1.1 percent per months decrease rate we may see OC market bottom (as defined by an additional 28 percent decrease from peak SFR prices) in about 25 months. That would lead one to predict a market bottom around April 2010.
However, I believe that the rate of price decrease will slow down in the second half of 2009, which may push the market bottom back another 6 to 8 months. Therefore, look for the OC housing market to reach bottom between November 2010 and January 2011. Just my unsolicided 2 cents. I’m quite aware that NOBODY that I speak to about this subject believes my prediction of a 50 percent OC price reduction because it has never happened before and the last downturn (1989 to 1996) was around 20-22 percent. But based on the data I have evaluted, I think I’m right.
The bottom may occur at a different date for other counties such as San Diego which began their downturn earlier. Each CA county will exhibit a different bottom date and price reduction when this is all played-out.
February 29th, 2008 at 8:55 am
Ha.
February 29th, 2008 at 9:01 am
Once again, I call on Lansner and his research team (?) to dig a little deeper into these figures. How many sales in OC are distressed property saies and/or foreclosure sales? Some of you may know this, but Data Quick doesn’t actually look at all the documents that are recorded in OC. They get a computerized list of documents. Any transfer where money changed hands contains “transfer tax”. The rate is $1.10 per thousand. If the sales price is $500k, the transfer tax is $550. But if a loan was assumed, the tax on the “partial value sale” might only be $22.00 which translates to $20K. The tax on Trustees Deeds is based on the sale price minus the amount owed on the loan, so it is artificially low. I know, too complicated. But I just want to point out that without further explanation, these charts do not reflect the real picture and should be viewed as approximations, at best.
February 29th, 2008 at 9:06 am
Thoughtful
…. time will tell
February 29th, 2008 at 9:26 am
TO SCOTT A AND VOICE OF RECKONING
SCOOTER YOU SHOULD KEEP ANY JOB U HAVE BECAUSE UR SONG WRITING SKILLS ARE NOT GOING TO GET U ANY CHANCE TO MAKE IT IN THE REAL WORLD.
WITH NUMBERS LIKE THIS AND NOW WE ARE BACK TO 2004 LEVELS IN PRICING.. I GUESS THAT MEANS THE LAST 3 YEARS OF UR SO CALLED UP MARKET HAS BEEN TAKEN AWAY.
I WONDER IF THATS GOOD
RAISE RENTS OH MY
THE NEW PEOPLE THAT U EXPECT TO COME RENT UR SCHACKS ARE
1 POOR AFTER SPENDING EVERYTHING THEY HAD TO TRY TO SAVE THE HOME FROM GOING BYE BYE
2 THESE PEOPLE WILL ALSO HAVE BAD CREDIT NOW OR BK
3 I WONDER HOW MUCH THEY HAVE FOR THAT GOOD OLE SECURITY DEPOSIT
4 AND IF THEY WALKED AWAY FROM THERE HOUSE WHILE OWNING IT IM SURE THEY WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM MOVING OUT ANYTIME AT MIDNIGHT IF THEY CANT AFFORD YOUR HIGHER RENTS
WAKE UP BOTH U AND VOICE OF UNREASON
YOU 2 ARE EITHER TRUST FUND BABIES AND NEVER HAD TO MAKE IT ON YOUR OWN OR IN THE REAL WORLD
OR
YOU BOTH ARE FROM THE SAME FAMILY
OR YOU BOTH WON THE LOTTERY….LOLLLL
RENTS WILL COME DOWN
THE RENTS WILL COME DOWN
OH MY I CAN TELL YOU MY RENT HAS ALREADY COME DOWN…….LOLLLL
AND THAT IS A FACT AND DOCUMENTED
February 29th, 2008 at 9:37 am
TO SCHOCK (YOUR MONKEY) G
YOUR ROCKET SCIENTIST STATEMENT
AWarning to all home sellers:
“If you don’t need to sell, take your home off the market.”
MR LANSNER PUT THAT IN THE FRONT PAGE OF MARKETPLACE IN BOLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
WE HAVE FOUND THE WAY TO STOP THE AGONY ACCORDING TO THE SCHOCK MONKEY
FINALLY WE HAVE SOLVED THE HOUSING CRISIS…..LOLLL
I WONDER HOW MANY HOMES ARE IN DISTRESS BECAUSE THEY HAD NO CHOICE BECAUSE THEY COULDNT AFFORD PROLLY EVERYONE
EVERYONE PUT YOUR LIFE ON HOLD DONT SELL IT WILL STOP THE RUN ON THE MARKET ACCORDING TO MR. MONKEY BOY(SCHOCK G)
HONESTLY DO U REALLY THINK LIKE THAT OR ARE U JUST HERE TO BE A CLOWN BECAUSE IF THE LATTER IS CORRECT WHICH I MUST ASSUME IS
YOU ARE DOING YOUR JOB WITH FLYING COLORS AND A RED NOSE TO BOOT. LOLLLLLLLLLLLL
February 29th, 2008 at 9:40 am
OC and California housing prices have along way to fall to be considered normal, the drop isn’t suprising, just part of the settling for California and the OC to land in at realistic market value for home prices. Nobody likes a rude awaking, especially when you’re losing money.
February 29th, 2008 at 9:42 am
Hwood & Rants;
O yea….A trust fund baby……a……………..
Way off.
Self made entrepreneur from 18.
Sarted bussing tables at El Torito off El toro , moved up to waiter. lol
Droped out of IVC and started my own Insurance Agency = broker
Diversified my business into RE in 2000
Bought in Belmont LBC and moved the biss to the wold trade center
I am only 33 and now we have 4 properties.
Back in the OC…..
Better for riding mountain bikes and surfing at creek
O yea……
Vs 4
Foreclosures we will go
Foreclosures we will go
With the credit cruch and mass foreclosures
A million more renter we will go………..
February 29th, 2008 at 9:45 am
it seems to me that most of the time hwood is sniffing something while he is posting here.
February 29th, 2008 at 10:00 am
Hwood-
Do us all a favor and take the CAPS key off…
February 29th, 2008 at 10:01 am
Chicken Little:
I think the caps is an insecurity issue……
Momy did not give him enough attention as a baby…
HE DEMANDS TO BE HEARD !!!!!!
lol lol lol lol lol lol lol ahahahahahahahhaahahah
February 29th, 2008 at 10:04 am
hwood,
You talkin’ to me?
First, I just want the undiluted, unbiased truth. Second, for the record, my humble opinion is that there is an adjustment going on that was made worse by the sub-prime market. It probably would have happened anyway, to a lesser extent. I don’t claim to know when the skid will stop or how much lower it will go. But, it won’t kill the SoCal market and life will go on. If you’re looking to buy, wait. But watch carefully. The signs are suble. If you paid too much and used a 125% loan to do it. Bad move, but you’ll recover if you do the right things now. If you’ve owned your property(ies) for a while, sit tight. It’s not rocket science. If you don’t make at least 70 to 80K a year alone or 100+ household, helloooooo Stockton!
February 29th, 2008 at 10:05 am
Chicken Little:
I think the CAPS is an insecurity issue…..
Perhaps mommy did not give someone enough attention so….
HE DEMANDS TO BE HEARD !!!!!!
YOU WILL READ MY POSTS !!!!!!!
lol lo lol lol lol lol lol lol lol lol lo
February 29th, 2008 at 10:09 am
TO ALL
THANKS FOR ASKING ME TO TAKE OFF THE CAPS BUT I DECLINE
February 29th, 2008 at 10:21 am
Total volume of 1225 for a county with population of 3 million people. You do the math. amazing number. this is probably 20% of the peak volume in 2005.
February 29th, 2008 at 10:22 am
I have a friend who was born without his right hand. He types his emails with all caps because he can’t depress the shift key. Anyone would completely understand why he does it.
February 29th, 2008 at 10:30 am
My 2c, we are here to share our knowledge. I appreciated whom gave good info, but ignored others. Thanks to all gave usefull info.
February 29th, 2008 at 10:30 am
TO JEFF FROM SOME BEACH
THANKS FOR HELPING ME OUT BUT IF I DIDNT HAVE A RIGHT HAND I WOULD GO CROSS EYED……LOLLLL
U FIGURE IT OUT SMARTY PANTS
February 29th, 2008 at 10:36 am
TO WONDER
YOU SHOULD BE AN EDITOR U R ABLE TO DECIPHER WHATS GOOD INFO AQND WHATS NOT……..LOL
NOW DID YOU FIND MY TYPING ERROR IN ABOVE STATEMENT
IF U DID CALL MR LANSNER UP THEY NEED A GOOD EDITOR
February 29th, 2008 at 10:36 am
jeff from seal beach, i’m thinking along the same lines as you in terms of the market finding a bottom and overall percentage drop in price.
February 29th, 2008 at 10:47 am
I just purchased a bank owned condo in Ladera Ranch. Last sale in January was $495K…I placed an offer for $430K was countered for $485K….I was ready to resubmit an offer for $435K when the bank relisted the property for $419,900!!! I placed an offer for $419,900 and the bank accepted my offer and we are in escrow due to close in 3 weeks.
You can’t expect to purchase at the low, however, this is the type of market where millions can be made if purchases are smart!! I can’t wait for my next purchase later this year. WOO HOO!!
February 29th, 2008 at 10:51 am
Wells Fargo requires 25% down on Jumbo’s
As all of the lending institutions follow Wells lead, we are now just beginning the true downturn in the orange county real estate market. So far, we’ve been warming up and seeing a little bit of price erosion, a mere 20%. Now we will see the market correction in full force………
February 29th, 2008 at 10:55 am
Hey Steph,
Not to rain on your parade, but around Nov. 2010 your neighbor’s condos will be listed for $250K. Woo Hoo !
February 29th, 2008 at 11:02 am
to hwood,
Thanks to replied to me. I have no objection about you, not to anyone. Like I said I appreciated the good info, I collected them in both positives and negatives, then do my homwork for my living. Don’t feel hurt when you see others criticized you, but I personal have nothing about you. because I don’t know you. Have a nice day.
February 29th, 2008 at 11:04 am
I hope prices drop! I’ll purchase more when they do:)
You can’t expect to buy at the lows. As long as you can rent the property for more than the mortgage note you will make profits. I don’t plan to flip any properties. I will buy and hold. I have the cash for the necessary down payments and will purchase as many properties as possible over the next couple of years. Because everyone is so scared to move I have more leverage to bargain and walk from poor deals and purchase the profitable ones.
February 29th, 2008 at 11:04 am
Hey steph.
are you a realtor? I can smell the stench of a realtor a block away.
February 29th, 2008 at 11:06 am
Daddy Warbucks asked this: “So, Mr. Dood, are you saying this could be the begining of a slight upward bias in the market?”
What I have stated numerous times, on other threads, is this. At least in SOUTH O.C., where I live, ( as opposed to older areas of the O.C. that many escaped from 20-30 years ago.) price are in MY view, bottoming out.
There are still some good buys, of REOs and corporate relos, and that’s what prudent buyers, like me, are targeting, right now. Once those become fewer, and they ARE, the bottom will start to firm up, with only occasional REOs coming in at lower prices.
There are numerous alleged “short sale” listings out there right now, but for the most part, they’re represented by over-zealous, inexperienced agents, just trying to get a listing sold. The majority of these listings will eventually either become REOs, priced just under the “normal” market, ( The listings that are NOT distressed sellers, which makes up just over 50% of available listings.) OR, the “short sale” sellers, realizing that the lenders are NOT going to fall for their sob stories of poverty, will take their houses off the market, and hunker down to make the payments they signed up for.
A crucial facet of qualifying for a “short” payoff, to a lender, is the ability to PROVE that you have a hardship. Just not wanting to make those payments, because it’s crimping your lifestyle, doesn’t cut the mustard. The lenders will find those other properties you own, or about your other assets, that can be liquidated, in order to preserve your BMW payment history.
In conclusion, I expect prices to remain at this bottom ( again, in South O.C..) for the next couple of years, with minimal fluctuation - plus or minus 5%. In other words, it will become a normal market, with equillibrium between buyers & sellers.
That’s how I see things. Just an opinion, based on living in this community - as a homeowner/landlord - for over 38 years.
February 29th, 2008 at 11:09 am
TO STEPH
IF ITS A GREAT TIME TO BUY NOW YOU SHOULD BUY 2 BEFORE THIS GREAT BUYING OPPORTUNITY LEAVES CAUSE BY YOUR LOGIC PRICES ARE GOING UP C AUSE U WAIT TILL END OF YEAR U MAY BE PRICED OUT OF MARKET….LOLLLLLL
AND IF THAT THEORY U HAVE IS NOT WHAT I SAID
THAN WHY WOULD U BUY A HOME NOW WHILE PRICES ARE JUST STARTING TO FALL AND CONTINUE TO DO SO MONTH AFTER MONTH
UNTIL THERE IS SOME KIND OF STABALIZATION IN THE MARKET U HAVE MADE A VERY UNCALCULATED AND EMOTIONAL BUYING DECISION
YOU DID NOT BASE IT ON REAL FACTS AND FIGURES IF U DID U WOULD NOT HAVE PURCHASED YET
THIS MARKET STILL HAS ANOTHER 20 [PERCENT OR MORE DROP
MY AVG HOME PRICE IN OC WILL BE 420K GIVE OR TAKE 15K BUT COULD BE WORSE WITH MORE BAD LOANS COMING UP AND MORE DISTRESSED PROPERTIES AND RENTS FALLING
BUT HEY IF U PLAN TO BE THERE 7-10 YEARS FINE
BUT HOPE U ARE NOT UNDER WATER WHEN HOUSE APPRAISES CHEAPER IN A YEAR OR LESS FROM NOW
February 29th, 2008 at 11:09 am
That’s funny and kind of typical of someone that is scared or intimidated by another person to “attack” comments with out any information to back your accusations:) No, I am not a realtor. I am a commodities broker with tons of cash to invest and make a fortune in this market.
I am pretty greatful that so many people are scared of purchasing in this market. It just makes it so much easier for me:)
February 29th, 2008 at 11:11 am
Steph:
I have never seen you on this blog….
I am the old school guy = buy and hold.
I bought 10 years ago for the rental model to cash flow…..
May I ask how many bedrooms the condo is?
May I ask how much you put down on the unit?
Rents in ladera for 2 & 3 bedroom condos are no more that $2,200
The Taxes,Ins, HOA, mella Roos are at least a $1,500 a month
That would leave me to believe you had to put down 200K to Break Even
How am I doing here?
February 29th, 2008 at 11:14 am
Steph,
Hope you stategy works for you. You write - “You can’t expect to buy at the lows” you say.
Maybe you can’t, but I can. I did it during the last downturn, and I’m planning to do it again. Tell that to Warren Buffett. He would disagree too.
February 29th, 2008 at 11:16 am
Steph:
Dont worry about the insults/haters it comes with success.
You are a broker?
So am I.
I for one am not mad at ya…!!
Go make that cash girl !!
I bought and sold gold since 2003
It worked out great and I took my profits and invested in…
An awesome vacation house in Big Bear Lake / boulder bay.
We rent it out in the vacation rental market on http://www.vrbo.com
It is making a killing
Hit me back in regards to the down, and how it flows.
February 29th, 2008 at 11:16 am
TO WONDER THANKS
U HAVE GREAT DAY TO
THANKS FOR HELPING ME WITH MY COMPASSION ISSUES…..
February 29th, 2008 at 11:20 am
steph’s a regular donald trump… more like a real knife catcher
that condo will drop another 100k at least