Alan N. Nevin, chief economist for the California Building Industry Association, offers up this view of the O.C. market for 2008 in the group’s annual forecast:
“From 2003-2006, Orange County typically gained 25,000-33,000 jobs annually. In 2007, there has been a dramatically decline in that picture, with approximately 10,000 new jobs created. Part of that decline relates to the all-off of the housing industry, both new and resale. In 2008, we project gains in the 10,000-12,000 job range.
Single-family housing production continues to ebb in Orange County as the price of land is high and the supply constrained. 2007 marked the sixth continuous year of decline in single-family production, hitting a modern low of 2,100 units. In 2008, we project a mild recovery, reaching the 3,000-unit level.
Multifamily production in Orange County tends to be in the 3,000-5,000-unit range annually. The stability relates in part to a continuing supply of rental housing in the most urban areas, and, of late, a burst of vertical construction in Irvine, Santa Ana, and Anaheim. In 2008, we project a production in the 5,000-unit range.”
To read the entire report, CLICK HERE.
What was Alan Nevin’s prediction for 08? Was it accurate?
This guy is PAID to say this! Why do you present a press release as NEWS?
When you pass along the press releases of shills, you become a shill…
why are they continuing to build overpriced housing in anaheim and santa ana?
some areas the median household income is less than $30k per year…
10 - 12k minimum wage jobs cannot even afford to rent…
Maybe some of the builders believe the nonsense from this guy and his organization. My bet is that most developers use his reports for toilet paper.
I work for the NanoBuildingInstitute and here is my prediction:::::::::::
2008 is positioned to be the worst year for housing in OC because homes are too expensive and because banks are getting more conservative with their lending standards…….
I am completely sick of the self-serving posters here who cheer at every negative national economic development. Obviously, they think they will escape harm, but want to see every industry (even those not housing related) collapse. They want to see massive unemployment and even homelessness, as long as it means they can steal someone else’s property. Mr. Lansner, maybe it’s time to end this experiment. This blog has become a cesspool. At this point, all your doing is giving them a stage.
Amazing! “The Developers use his info as toilet paper”? The Developers have hired him to provide forcasts. Why would they ignore his tellings. They aren’t exactly glorious predictions anyways. They need professional economists to give them real world perspective. What are they supposed to rely on? The sensational press? Perhaps Jim Doti who has been wrong in his predictions for the last seven years. Maybe you…who ever you are…maybe you have the crystal ball. The fact is, this is a professional trade association that offers perspectives to and from industry insders. Ocassionally they offer them to the public. Why shouldn’t Lansner pass them along. Do you think he should sensor them and filter out individual perspectives? He does the right thing to offer professional forceasts and let the public decide whethter or not to accept them.
Bored-
Censorship - LMAO!!
I guess you want to kill the messanger? Had we been listened to in 2004-2006, all of this would have been avoided!
Oh my….Bored echoes of another person who was on here…ladies and gents lets have a warm welcome back for our favorite underwater over leveraged RE forum clown Roc/Truthi!!! All I want to know is, why another name we know it is you and your style and angle on these subjects is unique in the scope and approach - it is you we know it and it is simple to figure out.
Oh and 08′….HAHAHAHA!!! My prediction is 08′ is the year for learning a new career or moving out of the area.
Mr. Lansner, is this what you had in mind (people like Patricio trying to drown out others’ opinions with outrageous accusations)? This blog is no longer a public space. Was that your intention? Is it ok with you that these people don’t allow others to speak?
If Bored is so bored of the blog why does he/she read it?
The SFR market will recover when the OC business leaders can find a way to make a profit while paying $2.55 per suare foot for rent and $80,000.00 a year for people who do data entry work. It better happen soon or all of the young folks will be move to Texas (or equivalent) out of frustration.
Bored,
You said. people like Patricio trying to drown out others’ opinions with outrageous accusations
Isnt that what you just requested Jon do by removing this blog “drowning out peoples opinion”
As far as outrageus accusations…you said that people here are cheering on “negative national economic development” and “want to see every industry (even those not housing related) collapse. They want to see massive unemployment and even homelessness, as long as it means they can steal someone else’s property.”
If those accusations are not outrageous I dont know what is.
I ask you bored, who is trying to steal anything. All things are only worth what someone is willing to pay for it or can pay for it. If you are a homeowner I am sure you were very happy when the market was having double digit gains…if you were so concerned about someone “stealing your home” you should have sold back than.
If not relax….enjoy the nice home you have. Unless of course you bought more than you could afford and are now upside down on your loan.
Why would anyone here want to see people be homeless? If people can afford a low end 2K a month loan they can rent a really nice house somewhere or a really really nice apartment.
My feeling of most people here is the see the larger issue of people spending way beyond their means and putting themselves deeper and deeper into debt. The negative savings rate that we are currently in is only going to put us into huge problems for decades to come.
The lesson that needs to be learned by this housing downturn is that you should buy what you can afford and nothing more.
I hope in your case bored, that you didnt fall into this trap that many foolish people did and bought with a nice fixed interest loan and didnt buy in 2005 to 2007. IF so I am so so sorry.
You people don’t believe anybody, do you? If W. Edward Deming himself rose from the grave and told you “the end is near” you would replay “yeah, but” and extole your own ideas in front of him.
Maybe you could get a job as Chief Economist for the CBIA?
Who do you believe?
Who could have guessed Samson would jump in with a sermon?
I never knew morons could get bored
I’ve been to Texas. No Thank You! In Texas, houses lose value each year. It’s part of the cost of ownership.
Thinking about buying beaten down residential housing? Think again.
With daily headlines about how awful the real estate market is, a lot of investors who didn’t blow their money on overpriced property during the bubble are looking for an entry point.
A study by one former and two current Federal Reserve economists suggests now might not be the time. They economists looked at housing prices and how they compare with rental prices and, in spite of reports of a bursting bubble, the price/rent ratio is still well above its historical norms.
In order for the relationship to normalize, prices would have to fall 15% nationally over five years, assuming rents rise 4% a year.
bored=ken=roc=dons=trader chris= oc native=shockg= blogger of a thousand names= only bull left
What up Pebbles.
How’s that NOD going.
Endless personal attacks will get you nowhere. Owners are locked in, renters are locked out. Who is happier?
Bored Says:
Owners are locked in(to a time bomb loan about to explode), renters are locked out. Who is happier?
Sure.
DonS. First off. Did you read Nevin’s statement? He stated that the automotive industry created tens of thousands of jobs without using a time domain. Why? Because the time domain he’s referring to must be measured in more than a couple of years. Fact is, the US auto industry has grown from 1,054,000 workers in 1990 to 1,098,000 in 2005. He expects how many to be added in 2008? Care to put a wager on that? Keep in mind that employment in the auto industry peaked in 2000 at 1,313,600 workers. That’s a total net loss of 215,500 jobs between 2000 and 2005. NO GAIN THERE. SO WE ARE LOSING JOBS YEARLY IN THAT INDUSTRY - NOT ADDING!!! REPEAT: A NET LOSS!!! So who cares if domestic automotive plants owned by foreign corporations added a few thousand jobs - we still had a net loss. Recently, Chrysler announced cuts along the lines of 10,000 jobs domestically.
Then he stated Auto sales continue at a high pace. That may be his perspective, but it is not based on numbers. Recent reports show a decline in sales, year over year. Therefore, on a per capita basis, we’re declining in that area. Then he states that the “party” will be more motivated to do something about the economy because of elections - like helping the US economy should not be NUMBER 1 at ALL TIMES - not just during an election year. In his mind, the most important thing is easier lending (aka lower rates). Hmmmmm, let me see. How did we get here in the first place? The man (Greenspan) frickin’ responsible for the low rates to begin with even stated that it WOULD BE A BAD IDEA!!
Then Nevin stated the 10year T-bill provides basis for the 30yr fixed rate conforming. WRONG again. It is not the basis - ask any reputable educator on finance. Its more of a coincidence than a basis.
Now on to his state figures. He stated that CA will grow by more than 400K people this year. Well, here are the state population numbers from 2000 to 2006 - (The 2007 numbers are not out yet)
2000 372,444
2001 678,818
2002 474,051
2003 441,848
2004 374,889
2005 312,893
2006 303,402
Now tell me, would you bet $1K that CA will see a 400K+ net pop. gain in 2008? Especially given the current outlook for jobs? GIVE ME A BREAK!!!
It just doesn’t end. The funny thing: I have seen reports generated by newly hired engineers that are more professional and substantiated with data than any of these so-called bullish economists that have incorrectly predicted our local market repeatedly. The more amazing thing is that these people STILL HAVE JOBS!!!
DonS - believe what you may. More like what you must believe. Personally, relying on cold hard facts instead of the unfounded wishes of these economists has proven time and again to be very rewarding.
And get this: I bought 2 investment properties in 2007 - just nowhere near the OC. And of course, I own – in OC. So to say I am bearish on all RE is another LIE. Just in case you were thinking it.
His charts aren’t even complete. He didn’t define the third axis for his 3-axis charts. How much does this guy get paid for generating this kind of report?
Lying and deceiving is just wrong.
Truthiness:
In my SFR neighborhood, I saw the house across the street sell for $655K the week I moved in - May ‘06. The one next door just sold for $460K. I pay $1800 a month in rent. I can afford a $5K a month mortgage.
You do the math and let me know who’s happiest.
This assuming everyone is ken or truthiness or trader chris (or anyone else) is very childish, it has also ruined this blog. What gives you the right to berate and accuse other people who wish to post here? Who gave you such a right? I suggest you worry about your own posts and leave others alone.
So, you interested in a possible short sale?
Let me know. I know people.
She can not sell short. She already sold her home in Turtle Ridge for a loss this summer.
If you look at the listings prices are coming down rapidly. $600,000 houses are just laughable…but what is even more laughable is that homeowners actually think these homes are worth that much. Out of that $600,000, $400,000 is just hot air that was created in the last 5 yrs and guess what, that hot air is all cooling and will be gone gone gone just as fast as it came. That is not open to debate it is just OBVIOUS!
And an example of maturity is to keep changing your name and using different names on different blogs? Why are you so angry?
if you ignore it(her), she will go away.
Promise?
No way. I just figured out who Kirk is.
Shame on you Ken/ROC/Pebbles/Truth/Other Side/Kirki!
“Bored Says:
January 3rd, 2008 at 4:20 pm
I am completely sick of the self-serving posters here who cheer at every negative national economic development. Obviously, they think they will escape harm, but want to see every industry (even those not housing related) collapse. They want to see massive unemployment and even homelessness, as long as it means they can steal someone else’s property. Mr. Lansner, maybe it’s time to end this experiment. This blog has become a cesspool. At this point, all your doing is giving them a stage.”
Bored, I totally agree. these fools feel compeled to convince all on how bad they think things will get in the future. It amazes me how much time and energy they spend on housind blogs trying to drive down the market for their own personal gain. Blogs like these do indeed give them the stage to spread their self-serving non-sense. It’s bad enough that they pimp out this blog for their own cause but they do it with such arrogance it’s disgusting.
Talk about Bored…..I’m bored by Truthi/Roc/Pebbles/Bored/UsedtoRead/Shockg , bored by her endless attempts to reincarnate herself and bored by her endless attacks on those who choose to rent.
The only support she gets here is from herself posting, encouraging her previous posts and praising herself. Very Bored.
Nothing is going to bring back the market other than a serious price correction to a point that will interest the masses or a big drop in long term rates to off-set the high cost or low inventory.
Buyers lost interest a long time ago and only price will bring enough back to make a difference and the others can’t qualify.
The party is over for years to come.
I’m sure the unemployment rate moving to 5% from 4.7% will help the RE market recover, as well as the price of gas at record prices during what is normally the time of year when it is at it’s low.
Does anyone else have any other good news?
get a crowd of people into room…
have a few people talk about the growth of their investment…
get the people cheering about their good fortune…
offer them an investment deal that doubles, quadruples and will be worth 10 time their inital investment within months…
all you need to do is invest and get your neighbors and friends to invest… ignore the naysayers… keep them exited…
just keep the party going… but don’t be the last person at the party…
sound familiar…
ponzi schemes end…
money is earned through sound investment strategies… leason learned…
Go back in a time machine to 2002.
Look at the price of the dollar, gold, stock market, housing, wages, trade, deficit,tax structure. Here was more of a balance , more of an equilibrium.
In steps Bush babies and their brillant concepts in economics and foreign policy. Now look at the situation. Everything is basicly double except wages. We basic have double trouble. where the crap will land is unclear. But I think the short term will see asset deflation since we are surely not going to see the super wage inflation.
Recovery in ‘08? BALONEY.
“Bored” you don’t sound very bored to me. You seem all fired up on your soap box with plenty to complain about. Well, actually that does sound like what a bored person does. Ever try a hobby? How about real estate?
Car sales? Is employment in auto manufacturing your main basis for gageing economic strength? It may give a short term indication but is lousy for the longer term.
There are no reputable financial educators forcasting economics. If they do, they should go back to their area of expertise and crunch numbers. I thnk they were the ones who started these SIV vehicles that are causing so much economic problems now.
Your CA population numbers are a little off. Did you mean “growth” instead of total. How much more can OC population grow from its present 3 million? But prices can rise, based on demand. Get it?
Again, who do you trust? You prove my point. Should I listen to you? Why?
My last real estate purchase is So CA was 2002. I own real estate “out of state” (TX) also. But, I wish I didn’t. It’s a lousy investment. I guarantee. So CA real estate is “solid gold”. Ask Dr. Jerry Buss.
“So CA real estate is “solid gold”. Ask Dr. Jerry Buss.”
I recently saw an interview with Dr.Buss. He said what began his RE fortune was an investment he made in the Westside in early 1960’s. He convinced banks, who were about to bulldoze a development of over 100 finished and partly finished homes in Culver City due to developer losses, to give him a chance to save the project. They sold him the entire development for under $1M, 100% financed and he made it work over several years.
Sounds to be the Dr. Buss likes to buy low and sell high.
dons=truthi=ken=roc=oc native= bored= poster of about a quarter of the posts
dear dons and your many aliases
If you have any credibility why don’t you use just one name?
Does 30 names give you credibility.
You have proven your ability to take out gmail accounts. Little else.
Stick to one name and state your case.
Thanks again dons=ken=truthi=oc native=bored
ANd bloggers lets help this guy. What would be a good name for him.
pemabull?
bull?
bullSh*t?
bulloney?
stubbornbull?
transformer?
shifty?
loaner?
Loser?
bored?
help me out?
Mr. Lansner, have you given up on the idea of standards? Just take a look at what these people have turned your endeavor into.
Home price will sky rocket in 2008.
Jim-
How have the forecasts of this industry association compared with the actual results? I like it when a journalist digs a little and looks back at a forecaster’s prior predictions to determine a track record for the forecaster. I don’t think it’s terribly effective to simply rebroadcast whatever a trade group is forecasting. Let them pay publicists for that!
A 2000 square foot home in Shanhai can command price up to $1,000,000.
The same home in Saigon Vietnam, yes Vietnam of all place recently sold for 1.2 millions dollars. Granted it is located in the center to Saigon and have dual use as residence and business.
But travel the world people and you see you expensive real estate can be in other part of the world.
I just got back from Iowa, and there market isn’t hurting. It’s time to get out this Rat Race of Cali. The schools are better there, homes cheaper, and unemployment is lower.
I don’t care if there was snow on the ground, it was always 72 inside.
The good life. Iowa.
The jet lag is killing me so pardon me for the spelling.
Truthi: please elaborate on the differences in industry, economy, buyer domain between those places in Asia and our little ‘ol OC.
You’ll find that those places can be more acurately compared to NYC and definitely not the OC.
If you use correlations, you should define the basis of that correlation. Such as population, GDP, growth projections, industry, and plenty of other demographics.
nbi,
Population density in Shanhai and Saigon are very high.
No subprime lending there either.
I witnessed a transaction in Saigon where a house located in the center of the city was sold for 1.2 million US dollars, CASH.
Economic growth is about 8% for both China and Vietnam this year and next.
Bored / Shockg said; “I am completely sick of the self-serving posters here who cheer at every negative national economic development. Obviously, they think they will escape harm, but want to see every industry (even those not housing related) collapse. They want to see massive unemployment and even homelessness, as long as it means they can steal someone else’s property. Mr. Lansner, maybe it’s time to end this experiment. This blog has become a cesspool. At this point, all your doing is giving them a stage.”
Bored, I totally agree. these fools feel compeled to convince all on how bad they think things will get in the future. It amazes me how much time and energy they spend on housind blogs trying to drive down the market for their own personal gain. Blogs like these do indeed give them the stage to spread their self-serving non-sense. It’s bad enough that they pimp out this blog for their own cause but they do it with such arrogance it’s disgusting.”
Anyone who thinks blogs like this one can actually affect housing prices, much less the economy, are delusional. How many people read this blog, or any other blog? The answer is: a neglible number.
What exactly is so offensive? Let’s say the worst-case scenario is true: everyone who posts on this blog is an embittered renter who desires to see lower housing prices. How exactly has the skepticism or cynicism led you, Bored, to call for the end to this blog? Why call it a cesspool? Help someone who is a homeowner and thinks the recent runup of prices is absurd understand your point of view.
I’m interested in OC real estate, but find the comments on this blog too often degenerate into a sort of kindergarten food fight without adult supervision. Not to say that there aren’t serious and thoughtful comments, just that there’s too much wading through sewage to get to them. This is a serious topic that ad hominem slurs and rants don’t add to an understanding of. For now I’m done reading comments here, though I find Lasner’s post always interesting.
Oh boy….yeah ok Truthi. Why don’t you say “I saw a very rich Asian lady come to my cosmetics counter over Christmas, and she was telling me about the place her husband was looking at in her home Country. I was so glad that she was happy with the make over I gave her for her Christmas shopping.”
I witnessed a transaction in Alaska where an Eskimo purchased a 1 bedroom igloo for 5 million dollars.
It melted 4 hours later due to global warming.
“The Developers have hired him to provide forcasts” - Bob
Bob,
Lets say their forecast was for the bottom to fall out. Do you really think they would publicly state their conclusion? No…if their forecast were really really bad, the public statement wold look exactl like it does.
This means that the best case is the public forecast….to worst….well it could be really bad.
Shanghi? Saigon? How does that help affordability here? How would that effect the lending practices? Are you suggesting that just because someone paid a huge amount of money that everyone can?
Why is it a cesspool? It is a cesspool because of the attacks, and refusal to allow people to add their thoughts.
Truthi,
Why is it that when you come back so do all of your made up names (Peccator Dubius, waitingforgodot, Bored) complaining of how bad this blog is because we don’t agree with your propaganda?
A friend of mine just bought her apartment in Belgium for 500k. 1 bed a bath, 20% down.
Most of the people here are so narrow minded they can not see beyond the orange curtain. Go out there and see it for yourself.
Pattie, Rants:
The world can not be experienced through your web browser!
You must think we are very gullible to believe that their is an 08′ recovery or that it is a good time to buy….obviously we are not going to believe either. Now you want us to believe after your months of sitting on the couch and trolling on this blog that you are now a jet setting Asian/Euro RE wheel and dealer. Give me a break your fantasy world is amusing if it wasn’t so sad.
Pattie,
My world is a lot more exciting than sitting at the PC all day doing tech support!
Calm down everyone –> The “recovery” this guy is talking about is just an increase in production. Increase in production does not mean an increase in actual SALES or SALES PRICES.
Conforming interest rates for a 30 fixed now at 5.5% and going lower
There is no doom and gloom………it is very simple.
Values for OC homes will fall until they are affordable with a conventional loan with a 20% down payment. This is good because then people that can actually afford the homes will be buying them. It is also good because real estate agents, mortgage brokers, and banks will all be able to make money again.
Things really are getting better…….
Not doing tech work I did that in 1992, but all good how are the cheese logs selling over at the Hickory Farms?
Selling like hot cakes Pattie.
Now that you are not doing tech support, I suppose you are that guy with thick glass behind the counter in that adult store on Harbor blvd?
Ziiiinnnggg!!
Geeeeze, I wish Christmas was all year long so you could take a break and go do more retail help for some extra cash.
Btw,,,
Harbor Blvd Adult store worker > Realtor
And nice logic there on the stretch from IT director to adult store, same as always logic.
Truthi,
It sounds like the malls have laid off their part time Christmas help so you and your thousands of names will once again clog Jon’s blog up again.
All kidding aside, how did your Christmas trip to visit the family in Puerto Rico go?
I bet it took your mind off all of your housing woes for at least a couple weeks, right?
It was nice Bill.
I visited Pattie and his 13 children. It took me all week to remember all the long names!
Truthi: you forgot to factor in that you are reporting in US dollars which are worth much less when compared to the indigenous currencies of those places.
Do you really think your arguments have any merit?
Go truthi go:
This could be a name change climax.
Truthi: concerning those Asian examples - thanks for pointing out that they cannot be compared to the OC in any way, shape or form.
nbi,
Do i think any of my argument has any merit?
Absolutely not!
Thanks God NBI finally figure out what I am trying to say!
Cesspool.
Pattie,
I am going to lunch now.
Make sure you defrag and clean up my hard disk!
Whoa….she has lost it….psycho.
Seriously, go get some meds this is a train wreck. Holy dementia!
go bored, go truthi
change names one more time for us
So people buy overpriced properties around the world?……..No kidding! And…………?
There’s quite a few people out there that can afford overpriced property, doesn’t mean everybody can which is exactly why were seeing less and less sales actually going through right now in OC. Prices are high!
I’ll keep renting and saving my pennies.
While “the borg” (truthi, bored, ken, calm down etc) is away it is time to discuss the real implications of his mental illness.
People have always had tasks to do and it always required learning.
Now people are ever more specialized in the task that they do and rely on other people to provide services. This super specialization has created a society of ignorance and dependence. Then along comes the internet and gives us something new to waste our time on. Oh it seems a better waste of time than watching the tv or doing drugs. And of course since the “internet” is a very wide range of activities one could not say that it is all a waste of time. Yet it is so polluted with misinformation and disinformation that it is pretty much a waste of time.
Now people like “truthi” kind of intuitively see this and magnify the pollution. But it does not stop there.
Our news media has filled the airwaves with half truths causing paranoia and irrational exhuberance. Thus the bubbles in real estate,
the stock market (popping as we speak) and commodities.
Trust is being sucked out of the system by the “truthi”’s of the world.
Just one looks weird but she is legion.
The Iowa Caucuses did select the best candidates of each party last night. But they looked good only because they look good( the one guy lost hundreds of pounds). We are so sick of Bushes and Clintons and their nasty clones that anything else looks good. Obama and Huckabee are disingenious light. Compasionate disingenious.
I sure hope it works because it really would be hard to do worse than Bush. But we sure have lowered the bar. And below that bar will crawl the “truthi”s of the world and their legions.
truthi:
“A 2000 square foot home in Shanhai can command price up to $1,000,000.
The same home in Saigon Vietnam, yes Vietnam of all place recently sold for 1.2 millions dollars. Granted it is located in the center to Saigon and have dual use as residence and business.
But travel the world people and you see you expensive real estate can be in other part of the world.”
truthi when was the last time you were in vietnam? 1968? Saigon doesnt exist anymore its called ho chi minh city. is your whole story made up or just this part?
I see my imposter(s) have returned.
# Truthiness Says:
January 4th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
I see my imposter(s) have returned.
——
Too-o-o-o funny. This from the greatest impostor of all - master of multi-IDs.