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Late Nov. home sales down 46.8%
December 7th, 2007, 9:21 am · 100 Comments · posted by Jon Lansner
November is virtually guaranteed to be the 26th straight month where shoppers bought fewer homes than a year ago. DataQuick reports this AM that home sales in the 22 business days ended Nov. 20 were 46.8% below a year ago. Prices continue to run about 8% below a year ago and 12% under the summer of 2006 peak. Here’s a look at the market for that period by key slices …
| Slice | Price | Vs. ‘06 | Sales | Vs. ‘06 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| House | $645,250 | -3.0% | 884 | -53.2% |
| Condo | $415,000 | -4.6% | 378 | -45.3% |
| New* | $587,000 | -20.8% | 343 | -22.0% |
| All | $575,000 | -8.2% | 1,605 | -46.8% |
* Includes single-family homes, condos and recently converted apartments
COMPARE: See how other O.C. home-price indexes have fared by CLICKING HERE
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Prices are still too high, so people are not buying. If it’s a good time to buy, economically speaking, people will not be stretching to make their payments and foreclosures will not be at record levels.
Per DataQuick, Single Family Median Home Price:
2007
6/26 = $735,000
6/30 = $734,000
7/12 = $725,000
7/17 = $725,000
7/25 = $720,000
7/31 = $718,000
8/07 = $719,000
8/15 = $712,750
8/22 = $710,000
8/30 = $710,000
9/11 = $700,000
9/14 = $689,000
9/21 = $675,000
9/26 = $670,000
9/30 = $655,000
10/12= $655,000
10/16= $660,000
10/23= $655,000
10/31= $650,000
11/08= $645,000
11/14= $645,000
11/20= $645,250
Ah … we’ve reached a bottom and prices will start increasing again next year. LoL
Here’s last years figures:
2006
7/18 = $685,000
7/25 = $699,000
7/31 = $699,000
8/07 = $695,000
8/10 = $695,000
8/28 = $690,000
8/30 = $685,000
9/07 = $685,000
9/13 = $689,000
9/19 = $690,000
9/30 = $680,000
10/05 = $679,000
10/12 = $675,000
10/17 = $665,000
10/22 = $667,250
10/31 = $665,000
11/07 = $665,000
11/15 = $660,000
11/22 = $660,000
SFRs down 3% even with the carnage. Very impressive.
Feel free to buy more “beautiful” houses now at a “beautiful price” with low interest rate. Rent them out and flip your houses at quick profit 2 years later.
Bush Administration and Fed Reserve Alan Greenspan will bail you out if you can not afford payments to keep economy from recession.
Hardworking Americans and Responsible Renters will subsidize with their tax money. It is a win-win situation for everyone.
After 20% price reduction, we could not afford housing in Orange County for years to come. Keep renting. Be Happy Renter.
It is interesting to see that resale homes are starting to have a bigger drag on the market, as far as overall sales are concerned, than new homes. I am curious to see what will happen when all the new homes have been absorbed since developers have nearly stopped.
I know of one Master Developer that is in a lot of trouble, it will be really interesting for me to see what happens to them.
Stop saying “people are not buying”…they are! The sales declines aren’t 100% - if they were then that statement would be true.
Sales volume is down but prices are holding in everything but the builder’s fire sales. People are obviously “getting financing”, the mortgage market isn’t dead as so many of you like to say. Even those jumbo loans - that supposedly don’t exist anymore - are being used.
I’m sorry but people that own houses in OC aren’t going to dump them like the builders do. Keep waiting bears.
The carnage is just beginning. The resets coming in the next 6 months will only pressure the market next spring/summer when more REOs compete with sellers.
As long as jumbo rates are still 7%, where are these buyers who can afford bad homes in Santa Ana for $500,000?
so far the people in neighborhood are withdrawing their houses from the market. there is only one for sale at below market value. this is a short sale. they pay 650k for it in 2005. now the bank is trying to unload it for 450k. the problem with buying property like this can be unpredictable though.
I dont know the exact stat, but hasnt resale homes gone from being down less than 1% to 2% and now 3%? So what will they say when it is 5%. Also isnt as it compares to last year at this time? Nov. 06 wasnt the peak of the market, so it is of course off more than 3% from the peak.
At 12% overall off of peak, we are on our way to being at least 20% off of peak by spring of 08.
Which of course means there will be plenty of homes that will be 50% off of peak and others that will be 10%.
SOB….we will wait. Thanks for the advice.
Samson,
They will say it is only 5% then it will be it is only 10%. Just change the percent #.
to carlos: I dont think alan greenspan is in the picture anymore. ANd from what I read this is a nonbinding plan. I for one do not plan to sit in my house if its worth 20 to 30 percent less than what I owe. I would rather live in it for free for 9 months and then let the bank have it back.
OCTrojan:
You’d better read some web sites other than this one, the resets are over - GWB has seen to that. Also, another rate cut coming from the Fed. Laws are being contemplated across the country to stop the foreclosure process. Judges are throwing out lawsuits where the lenders can’t prove who even owns the house.
Did you guys really think the powers that be would just let everything crash?….silly bears….
Wait if you want but you will never find this mysterious “affordable” home you all seek for half the current price. The problem isn’t that the home you want is too expensive, the problem is that you don’t make enough, or aren’t willing to play the game with ARM’s and second mortgages, and borrowing from family members or your retirement account in order to afford an OC home.
Play the game under the current rules or don’t participate, but please stop complaining because you don’t like the rules.
Heads up, banks are only audited Q4 so they are currently sitting on their hands with regard to releasing more REO’s. Trustees sale reversions are ginormous currently, this means the banks are getting a ton of properties back right now and literally trying to figure out what to do with them. Lots of new foreclosure inventory will hit the market in 08′
These mortgage relief developments are actually going to cause a deeper downward spiral. The bond rating agencies are already to further downgrade mortgage securities - even Fannie and Freddie. This just scares off investors, reduces available lending pool and and toughens standards. Who cares if you have 4% rates on mortgages if no one is willing to fund them at that rate in any meaningful volume? Just let the crash happen, the economy is strong enough to withstand this, and it RE would recover quickly.
Wow, only 47% down. Not bad.
Stop saying “people are not buying”…they are! The sales declines aren’t 100% - if they were then that statement would be true.
The banks are buying too. Too bad it’s not on a voluntary basis. Ouch!
OCTrojan
The Bush bailout plan will not have much effect. As far as some of the liberal plans which include preventing foreclosures, crash would be a best case scenario. The biggest problem right now is finding people to risk money on R.E. if you take away the ability to foreclose on R.E. then a word more like depression comes to mind.
Don’t worry OC Trojan I’ll buy your house for 300k in 2008 or 09. LOL!!!
The resets are NOT over! They just over for a few select people who qualify and whose lender (or CDO owner) agree to freeze rates.
The problem is prices are too high and the way in which you must afford a house in CA (you documented it well above) is out of whack. Prices will come down and all the Bush admistration or others can do is slow down the velocity. They canNOT slow down the amount.
Seriously, if you’re a renter on the sidelines reading these blogs remember that prices ALWAYS return to their mean. And if your knowledgeable about finance you’ll also now that prices actually always go well below their mean prior to seeing any type of bounce. In other words, prices may hit the “right” level in 2010, but surely they will then continue to trend lower until their once again “too cheap” around 2015 / 2020 and then (and only then) will we see marked home price appreciation.
Sorry I meant sick of bears. Ok sick of bears, twist my arm I’ll give you 325k just to show I’m a good sport.
For reference, here’s what happened during the last downturn:
Median SFR price in OC in 1990 (highest yearly amount before decline began): $242,358
Price in 1995: $208,760
Source: CAR
Nominal decline of about 13.8% over 5 years. The median started increasing again in 1996. I do not believe these are peak-to-trough numbers, just year-end numbers. I can’t tell what the actual peak-to-trough decline was from this data.
The decline between 1990 and 1991 (early stages of median price swing) was 1.1%. Things really started accelerating between 1991-1992 - median declined by 3.7%.
Right now, the median YOY decline has been 3% for a SFR. Draw your own conclusions.
“Stop saying “people are not buying”…they are! The sales declines aren’t 100%”
We’ll they’re down 53% from LAST YEAR. How much was last year down from the prior year? So compared to the go-go years, it’s just about 100%.
Have some family that are in custom home building and realty. On the realtor side, they were hustle and bustle non-stop in the go-go years. Now, they have nothing. Absolutely nothing. They’d say sales have stopped… w the exception of an occasional foreclosure.
S_O_B,
“Did you guys really think the powers that be would just let everything crash?”
ahhhh, yeah, actually they will…… just like they let the internet bubble burst……
GWB really didn’t do anything the lenders weren’t already going to do. None of this is mandatory. GWB does not care about the poor home owner. The Banks are in it for themselves…….. do they want to take a home in gang land that is worth 25% less if they can get some chump to keep paying the 7 - 9% interest payment????? Hell no……… Will they take the beautiful home that someone can not afford and is worth only 5 - 10% less than the loan value….. you bet they will.
S_O_B, don’t kid yourself….. the banks don’t care about you.
What fools you all are. You will eat these words, just as you had to eat “the FED will not drop rates”. Get ready for another cut next week as well.
Truthi….
Awesome…. I hope it’s 50 bps……… that will be what 10 bps in the jumbo rate……. SWEET !!!! The OC is safe now.
Again….. the 50 bps is for the banks.
Understand the food chain.
Who knows what will happen when the federal government starts selectively screwing with the free market corrections…
I feel bad for the people who were saving and waiting as the market corrected, as well as those who had to struggle to make payments on their fixed rate mortgages over the past few years while others irresponsibly took on teaser ARMs.
If our government keeps rewarding the irresponsible, the greedy, the lawbreakers, and the flat dishonest people in this country, there is little hope for the economic or moral future of America.
Truthiness Says:
December 7th, 2007 at 11:50 am
What fools you all are. You will eat these words, just as you had to eat “the FED will not drop rates”. Get ready for another cut next week as well.
______________________________________________________________
What are you hoping out of these rate cuts that hasn’t already happened with the previous 2 cuts?
Truthiness does not care that the risk premium on jumbo’s will increase further with a 50 bps rate cut……… the true drive to the OC housing market.
Yeah, just like it did last time.
——————————————-
COMMENT #30,000
Bulls and bears (and in between) …
Thank you,
Jon
——————————————
Lee doesn’t like the OCR reporting the Median when it doesn’t support his agenda. But he takes it upon himself to post the median when it supports his cause. What a hypocrite.
“lee in irvine Says:
September 7th, 2007 at 8:59 am
These figures are totally misleading and the OC Register should stop publishing them. This anomaly is sending the wrong impression to the good people of Orange County. Many in the real estate industry use these published figures to present the case that prices are holding up
shockg,
I don’t hear you touting the median anymore, now that it’s going negative.
I guess you’re a hypocrite too.
Slimy Bill, I never did. Loser.
i don’t mind reading the personal attacks if they are funny.
lately they are not.
Yeah shockg, but it must bug the hell out of him to see it going sideways, even now.
Two years ago, I could understand someone who might argue that Real Estate is a good investment, always goes up, etc. They had 5-8 years of data on their side. Now, however, it’s a different story. We are declining at a faster rate than we did in 1990-1995, and we still have a tidal wave of foreclosures yet to hit the market. The GWBush “freeze” is mostly smoke and mirrors and will help only a small number of loan-holders. Most “subprime” people are subprime for a reason — they can’t keep up at the current rate, much less at the upwardly-adjusted rate. You will continue to see more and more foreclosures as we move through 2008.
Someone raised the point that “people won’t sell their homes at the bargain prices” some want. Actually, they will. First they sell it to the bank on the courthouse steps, then the bank sells it at “bargain prices.” Banks could care less about keeping the property where little Johnny learned to ride a bike and where little Debbie had her first kiss. In addition, some wishful thinking sellers will be forced to accept the current market value when they have to make a job transfer, get divorced, or suffer major medical expenses. These “life events” actually happen more frequently in downturns (money problems are the #1 cause for divorce) and serve to amplify the already-weak housing market.
Enjoy your apartment until 2011.
it cost me $60k to rent in the past 3 years.
so if you want to wait, fine, but make sure you calculate the cost of renting vs owning using a spreadsheet or software application.
Well, congratulations. Many stood by and watched as prices went up 2X, 3X, and even 4X. Now, they are down by a big 3%. Here is your big chance. Interest rates are falling fast. Wont be long before DQ is sporting a +5%.
Thanks Bill,
Though I do somewhat agree with my fellow hypocrite, shockg. The DataQuick median is misleading and does not represent what is actually going on the street right now. The price drop for a single family home is actually much worse than what DQ is reporting. Just ask anyone that bought a home last year, and has it on the market this year.
Single Family Homes are probably down some 15% or more in some cases on a YoY basis. Actually it’s hard to determine what the real values are because there ain’t enough comps.
I’ll enjoy my rental until ‘11. Get to save $, have the landlord pay for maintenance, and see prices drop. Cheers!
Get what lee, you are right. DQ median is misleading and does not represent what is actually going on my CDM street right now. I am seeing beach close properties at their all time high. I don’t see any price cutting in my hood.
so we have a lot of hypocrites in this message board now?
gee it must be a long list…
Sorry lee, I stand corrected. DQ shows CDM up big over the last year. I guess DQ median may be more accurate than I thought.
I hope the fed drops rates 75 basis points.
It won’t do a thing for mortgage rates, but it’ll help me personally in something else.
Someone said — “Enjoy your apartment until 2011″
Too true for words :)
I just signed the lease again. While I sit back with a guaranteed housing expense of $1,500/month (I know it’s a bit extravagant for one person, but this is the OC where everyone is rich, no? :), my friend in his 1BR/1BA condo (bought in mid-06) is out over $2,000/month (yes, including the tax break).
His costs:
price: $375k
down: 20%
payment: $1,799
tax: $319
association: $400
estimated upkeep: $50
cost of capital @ 6%: $375
his cash outlay: $2,942
principal: $299
tax break: $631 (9.3% CA + 28% fed, net to 34.7% since CA is deductible from fed tax)
net cost for him: $2,013
So he pays $500 more than me for the same thing. However, he also sits on a depreciating asset, and has much more risk (breakage, damage, acts of god, awful neighbors, etc.), and the asset he is sitting on is highly illiquid.
Sounds like renting until 2011 will indeed be enjoyable :)
At every low in California, prices have always fallen below the rental equivalent. This time will be no different.
It’s actually good that some people think this is a good time to buy — it provides crucial housing transaction data to prove that prices are continuing to fall. You need two sides of each trade!
Best of luck to all!
when you do rent vs buy calculation, make sure you compare apple to apple.
someone i know is trying to compare renting her 1 bedroom apartment to owning a 2 bedroom condo in 2 different cities.
this does not make any sense.
buying a condo in this market is like flushing your money down the toilet…… first comes the courtesy flush with your down payment……. next comes a long series of monthly losses.
Ha ROC….yuo can look at a plane crash with all people on board and say, gee just a small plane could of been better I see that as good.
Most people have rent increases. And where does everyone keep getting this “depreciating asset” thing? Real estate is an appreciating asset in the long term. If you think this is and endless spiral, then good luck to you. Most sane people don’t.
SOB, you think the resets are over and GWB is the savior of the floppers? Well, I think you better go read the fine print, and get ready for the resets.
I haven’t posted much in the recent past, but see many familiar names from months ago continuing to spend a considerable amount of time on this blog; many of whom are criticizing others for posting too much. People, there is life outside of the walls of your office, den, mother’s basement, etc. Get out there and live a bit. In case you haven’t heard, it’s the holiday season. Enjoy it!
I’ve been consistent in my opinion of the use of the median price. The median is a grossly inaccurate barometer to measure either value or direction of value. Yes, Lee, the median wasn’t an accurate reflection when it was increasing despite softening market conditions earlier in the year and it remains an inaccurate measure as declining prices become more widespread (why do you hypocritically keep posting it after you blasted it so much in the past?) Despite these conservative estimates of declines being given to us by many sources, in various locations throughout the county, prices have already fallen by double-digit rates.
I ran across this condo neighborhood in south OC recently to offer as an example. Last year, approximately 26 sales occurred with pricing from $330,000 to $445,000. Currently, there are 22 listings with 21 of them priced below $320,000; remember, the lowest priced sale was $330,000 last year. Now, the lowest priced listing is $220,000 or $100,000 below last year’s lowest priced sale (same floor plan) and there have been no sales the past three months.
This does not represent all of OC by all means. Jimmy’s neighborhood and some others may actually be increasing it value, although that is difficult to believe. This is a micro-view of one neighborhood, but the fact that it is happening and at the level of discounting over last year’s price levels is downright scary. It may not be the norm, but it is definitely not an isolated case.
Patricio,
I was just driving past Washington Mutual…. I couldn’t believe it….
they started a soup line…. and were giving out winter coats
what fine people
Truthi,
Your names never run out do they?
Your buffy name makes it sound like renters pay a lot.
Buffy pays $20,000 a year
You’re probably losing $50,000 or more a year in equity.
Then tack on your huge payments probably $3,000 or $4,000 a month (before reset)
If buffy was in fact real, she would be owning your home in about a year or two at half price.
bill,
don’t you know truthi is paying me $5 a day?
Thanks OC Native, I guess your example also proves that the cause is not strictly affordability, as a place at $220,000 is most definitely affordable. This is fear we are seeing, and it will abate when it is time.
Truthiness said — “Most people have rent increases. And where does everyone keep getting this “depreciating asset” thing? Real estate is an appreciating asset in the long term. If you think this is and endless spiral, then good luck to you. Most sane people don’t.”
Yes, your point is very true. Rent is likely to go up by the typical long-run average of 4%/yr. Could be more or less, given what happens with incomes in OC. I’m predicting 3.5% for the next 3 years. My 90% confidence interval for OC rent increases would be 2.0%/yr to 4.75%/yr for the next 3 years. Vacancy is up some the last 2 months (all those former mortgage young guns moving back home), but not astronomically so.
Truthiness, I completely agree with you that RE is an appreciating asset in the long term. Always has been, always will be! Everyone needs somewhere to live, and inflation will create gains. It will not spiral downward forever. At some point, people like me (but with more cash) will buy RE and rent it out to others. When that rent covers the investor costs, that’s a guaranteed price floor.
However, I think that the market has just gotten too high, relative to the fundamental value right now. I’ve referred to it as a depreciating asset because that’s a fair statement about OC RE in the last 12 months. Does this mean it will continue to go down? Everyone has their own opinion about that. I’m gambling that it will go down. Clearly, if today turns out to be the real estate bottom, then I lose and have to buy at higher prices in the future. If RE does, however, go down further, then I win.
From a purely intellectual standpoint, OC RE pricing has one very interesting value. Because the price of RE is not related to the cost to produce real estate (in a mostly resale market), then the price is somewhat “controllable” based on buyer behavior. If enough potential buyers “wish” the price down (or up), it will actually move in that direction. If everyone simply said “I’m only willing to pay 90% of the current prices”, prices would quickly drop 10% as must-sell deals would be the only ones going through. By contrast, if the market won’t pay $40k for a BMW 330i, then BMW simply produces fewer cars (or exits the production business altogether). You can’t really wish the price down (short of a closeout or other one-time event). In addition, buyer X doesn’t know what buyer Y paid for the BMW 330i, and thus buyer Y’s “below comp” price doesn’t impact what buyer X is willing to pay. Isn’t perfect price information great?
Fun, fun, fun … I know there is a PhD dissertation topic here somewhere!
Hey buffy old pal,
You broke out the calculator to compare renting vs. buying.
I guess renting makes much more sense since you didn’t decide to buy :)
I’ll just post something from personal experience since i’ve been in the market for a home that last year and half. I was looking at a house in one neighborhood in Placentia that was averaging around $650K… now the range is $499K - $549K. You do the math.
Buffy’s rental costs were 20K/yr.
Her equity loss, had she bought would have been greater than that annually…….plus she would have had a mortgage payment, taxes, association fees, insurance and maintenance.
Buffy you lived for free PLUS +++++.
Good move.
Now if you ask me… is it a good time to buy? Sure, yes, if you’re looking for home and you can afford it… go for it! The market will eventually go back up so you don’t have to worry about this current dip.
However, for people like truthiness… they will keep preaching that there is no downturn and everything is always on the up and up. I mean, come, really? Have you not seen pricing the last few months? It’s a different market now… it’s lacking those short term investors which drove sales up.
Last two Jimmy posts are fake. I would never set foot in Plancentia. I try not to go on the other side of PCH.
Most people don’t stay in their home long enough for RE to be a ‘long term asset’ any more. People move what, every 5 years? Do that now and you’re hosed.
Also, the debt service is too high (rents won’t cover payments) to keep when one needs to move, so they have to sell. Furthermore, with prices so high, they really need that money to apply as a downpayment… assuming there is some equity left in the house.
Rent until you have your bills paid off. Raise your fico as high as possible. There are loan programs out there right now that are 100% financing for 1st time buyers on a 30-year fixed with the 1st ten years being interest only. About 6.75% with no mortgage insurance and by the time I buy they’ll be at about 6.5%. 45% debt ratio but will consider up to 50%. You don’t need any down payment. You just need a decent fico and low enough debt ratio. So stop leasing your Mercedes and get a Honda Civic if you want to own real estate in OC. You better get married too, I know I can’t afford to buy even a 1 bedroom condo in OC unless values drop 50%. And I’m making better than average income for a single person in CA. Murrieta here I come. I’ll get a brand new 2 bedroom 2 bath condo for $150,000. Same place in Irvine 40 miles away is $450,000+.
Intersting tidbit in the medians. In 2006 the highwater mark was $699,000,00 and the median dropped to $660,000.00 at the end of the year. This was a drop of 5.58%
This year the drop is from $735,000.00 to $645,000.00, a drop of 12.1%.
Many bulls disregard the drop that we have had, stating that it is seasonal. If that is the case, then why is the seasonal twice as drastic this year?
“However, for people like truthiness… they will keep preaching that there is no downturn and everything is always on the up and up’
What an idiotic statement. Why the need to lie?
Truthi-You still haven’t answered any of my questions, I guess I’m too difficult of a challenge for you.
It seems that the market may be holding up but until we get back to a historical level of buying there is not price set for these homes. Even in the coastal areas. Ancedotally, a home in Newport is now 200K off it’s 06 price bought and flipped at $895K. No one neighborhood is immune to risk.
Dude whats going on here. Seriously all anyone wants to do is buy a house at the lowest price possible. You guys are acting like children. Jeez, when home prices fall more, I will buy. Why is everyone getting so pissed off? Dude theres bears and bulls in every market. I can’t believe how much time some of you people have. Dude if you seriously did this much research and reading you could be making some serious money out there.
Stop bickering like children.
Jimmy… do you think other people are named Jimmy? It’s like Steve or John.
Truthiness, is that all you got? My data is from personal experience! I’ve been shopping this market… and I’m glad that my previous offers got turned down because now the owners can’t get nearly what htey were asking for before. Not just in Placentia, but other areas in OC as well. I’ve gone from looking for a townhouse to now a SFR. Is that good enough for you?
David,
Until affordability comes back, those programs will remain dormant.
Great two Jimmy names….all we need to screw this place up more…weee.
I know this much. I almost bought a year ago. I did the math and it just didnt pan out. I saw that the market had to turn sooner or later. Sure enough it has. I was looking the other day and the same floor plan that I almost bought is going for 60K less than what the asking price was a year ago. So I have already saved my self over 45K by not buying a year ago. All the work they have done in my place and in the complex hasnt cost me a thing. Oh and my rent hanst gone up in 2 years. The last time it did it only went up about 2%.
I like part of Daves advice. I am rentiing, paying of my bills, getting my fico score as high as I can. Working on my masters and living a happy life without the threat of foreclosure at my doorstep.
Prices are continuing to drop at a decent click. So buying what is currently a depreciating assit doesnt make much make sense. Think of it lets say I buy something for 350K it drops another 10% to 315K. in a year or so. So now I am paying a higher payment on that 350K and it will take another year or two to get back to the 350K that I started at. So lets say I want to sell it for whatever reason. The costs it would take me to sell it added to what the home is worth.
At the moment I would be looking at keeping it a min. of 5 years just to break even. If I do the type of loan Dave recommends. I would walk away with nothing. How is that different than renting?
The New York Times. “When Jirina Koy heard that President Bush was announcing a freeze yesterday on mortgage interest rates, the Stockton, Calif., homeowner felt a flicker of hope.”
“It was quickly extinguished. After calling a nonprofit housing assistance center, Ms. Koy learned that her mortgage, for all the trouble it was causing her, was not likely to be one of those qualifying for relief. Mortgage experts say there will be many borrowers like Ms. Koy.”
“She has a so-called option loan, which gives her the choice of how much to pay every month. Heavy in debt, she usually chooses the minimum. ‘I got all these calls from brokers all the time — ‘You could pay off debt, pay off the car loan, make extra money every month, blah blah,’ she said. She took out $60,000.”
“Jason Bosch, president of Home Center Realty in California’s hard-hit Riverside County, was pessimistic. ‘We were selling $300,000 homes to people who could only afford $175,000 homes,’ he said. ‘Even if you freeze their payments, they still can’t handle it.’”
She usually chooses the minimum. Nuff, said.
From HousingBubble, great site BTW.
All you bears need to drive by these homes that are $100,000 cheaper compared to last year. They are BEATERS that are thrashed inside and will need $100,000 in upgrades to make them liveable.
I challenge you to find a home listed at these new cheaper prices that you would ever want to live in. The areas/homes that people want aren’t 20-30% less.
SoB:
The Irvine Housing Blog profiles several properties a week that fit your critera. You might want to check it out.
Then again, maybe not. Everytime somebody views the IHB God kills a kitten. Or at least I’ve heard.
Thanks SOB. I am putting “extra” into my 457. The problem with my 457 is I cant touch any of it without a tax penalty so I am mostly paying off debts and putting some cash elsewhere. I do have one 457 account that I will use as my down or for costs if needed. I cant add to it, so it makes sense to use it for that purpose. (SO SOB, some of us will use or retirment money to buy.)
I am also not looking to buy a 4 bd. with an ocean view. A nice 2bd condo in a decent neighborhood so that I can sell it one day or rent it out if I get married and start a family.
I think for the most part I am saving greatly from not buying. It wasnt the case over a year ago, but with prices dropping it makes lots of sense right now.
SOB-
Tell me which cities that you think dont have beaters and on that note werent you chastising bears for not wanting to buy such a place? IS it not good enough for you either?
I found a place in Coto that sold in 2006 for 1.45 Million and is on the market for 1.15 million. I believe that is 25% off.
I have found many others, but I dont want to be accused of ruining lives by putting the address on here. Just take a look at redfin. It is all right there.
Theres a real nice one in RSM that was bought for 1 million in 2005 that is on the market for 800K that is 20% off. Also a good thing to note it has been on the market for 237 days.
Ill will post addresses if you like.
There are beaters in all OC cities.
All I am saying is before you go online and find a bunch of homes that are listed lower than last year and say, “see…there are 50 homes in zip code 9xxxx that are 30% lower”, go check them out. You wouldn’t want to live in any of them without major upgrades.
The one’s that you WOULD want to live in are in neighborhoods you wouldn’t walk around in at night.
I have looked at the homes on the IHB.
It is full of the “800 square foot $600,000 Garden Grove house that sold for $700,000 a year ago”…..that isn’t my idea of a desireable home that is listed way below the prior sale price.
Really SOB? You really think that…..that any house that is tanking is going to need 100k in granite and what not to make it all better to live in?
4537 Pacific Riviera Way, San Diego, CA 92154
–4 beds, 3 baths, 3,092 sqft
–11/2002: purchased for $473,758 ($153/sqft).
–07/2007: REO back to lender at $725,000.
–08/2007: listed for $670,000.
–Price Reduced: 08/18/07 — $670,000 to $599,000
–Price Increased: 08/23/07 — $599,000 to $650,000
–Price Increased: 09/02/07 — $650,000 to $670,000
–Price Reduced: 09/21/07 — $670,000 to $640,000
–Price Reduced: 10/10/07 — $640,000 to $599,000
–Price Increased: 11/04/07 — $599,000 to $640,000
–Price Reduced: 11/27/07 — $640,000 to $490,000 ($158/sqft).
It is now December, is the bank desperate enough to take an offer at $450,000? If so, then we are solidly in 2002 territory after prices peaked in 2005 to 2006.
Well you challanged me and in 10 minutes I found about 20 that met your criteria. Those are neighborhoods I would live in.
I am sure there are homes that are way off the peak that are in neighborhoods few want to live in. Or live in at any price. So I dont understand your point.
The point was are there homes that are 20-30% off peak that most people do want to live in? Yes yes there is. Plenty.
I can post the addresses. I would hope a home that sold for 1.5 million in Coto isnt a beater.
Congrats Patricio, you found one!
I was told that there are huge swaths of homes, hundreds, nay….thousands, out there in move-in condition that are significantly cheaper than last year and are in Newport Beach, Laguna Niguel, Laguna Beach, etc.
Finding things online is one thing, when you go visit and it needs new carpet, paint, flooring, appliances, roof, garage door, etc., the cheap price doesn’t seem so cheap after all.
Bye for now, hope everyone has a good weekend and buy someone you love a nice holiday gift…they deserve it!
That probably didnt work. Heres the address.
31912 Via Coyote
Coto De Caza, CA 92679
Well I could probbably spend hours finding places that have a discounted price. SOB, you need to accept what is fact. Prices are down and going down. Stop fooling yourself, do a little research and you will see for youself.
S_O_B,
As long as you can afford your mortgage, you should just go back to your gum drop forest and drink out of your chocolate river……. if you can afford to be in denial…… then close your eyes and turn up the Kenny G…… if you can’t afford your mortgage then you should tune into reality and limit your credit losses before things get out of hand….. there is no reason anyone should let their house be a ball and chain to their life.
Original Jimmy should indeed stay in the right side of PCH, close to a cliff.
Sorry, I forgot this part:
Purchase Price: $700,000
Purchase Date: 3/7/2006
Asking Price: $600,000
On Redfin: 121 days
Unsold in 90+ days
Oh no Truthi…….
Looks like Sick of Bears is turning this into a Irvine Housing Blog franchise.
So this is where the real OC lives.
Corona del Mar $1,295,000.00 -3.2%
Trabuco/Coto $782,500.00 -3.5%
Dana Point $839,500.00 -4.1%
Stanton $400,000.00 -4.3%
Irvine $496,500.00 -4.5%
Brea $629,750.00 -4.9%
Aliso Viejo $540,000.00 -5.3%
Total condominiums $415,000.00 -5.7%
Orange $600,000.00 -5.9%
La Habra $454,000.00 -6.4%
Anaheim $588,000.00 -7.0%
Irvine $639,000.00 -7.0%
La Palma $587,500.00 -7.4%
Costa Mesa $640,000.00 -7.9%
Santa Ana $613,500.00 -8.1%
All homes $573,750.00 -8.2%
Orange $383,500.00 -9.2%
Yorba Linda $690,000.00 -9.5%
Foothill Ranch $587,000.00 -9.7%
Cypress $512,500.00 -9.8%
Seal Beach $750,000.00 -10.2%
Newport Coast $2,262,500.00 -10.4%
Fullerton $500,000.00 -10.7%
Westminster $520,000.00 -11.3%
Laguna Woods $300,000.00 -11.3%
Los Alamitos $815,000.00 -11.4%
Laguna Hills $497,500.00 -12.3%
Midway City $495,000.00 -13.2%
Irvine $581,500.00 -13.2%
Orange $587,500.00 -13.5%
Santa Ana $475,000.00 -13.6%
Anaheim $497,500.00 -14.2%
Fountain Valley $565,000.00 -14.3%
Orange $547,500.00 -14.4%
Irvine $597,500.00 -14.6%
Garden Grove $495,000.00 -14.9%
Orange $592,500.00 -15.4%
Laguna Beach $1,100,000.00 -15.4%
Buena Park $490,000.00 -15.9%
Huntington Beach $744,500.00 -16.5%
Huntington Beach $530,000.00 -17.2%
Anaheim $450,000.00 -18.1%
Placentia $515,000.00 -20.1%
Yorba Linda $787,500.00 -20.7%
Fullerton $450,000.00 -21.1%
Anaheim $504,500.00 -21.2%
Fullerton $455,000.00 -21.6%
Anaheim $469,000.00 -22.5%
Newport Beach $3,450,000.00 -23.3%
Santa Ana $422,250.00 -23.6%
Irvine $1,280,000.00 -24.0%
Brea $626,750.00 -24.7%
Anaheim $435,000.00 -25.3%
Irvine $566,000.00 -25.9%
Huntington Beach $465,000.00 -26.2%
Mission Viejo $528,500.00 -26.3%
Garden Grove $437,500.00 -26.5%
Ladera Ranch $777,500.00 -27.3%
Anaheim $410,000.00 -28.3%
Tustin $484,000.00 -28.3%
Total new homes $528,000.00 -31.6%
San Clemente $691,500.00 -32.5%
Lake Forest $416,000.00 -33.6%
Santa Ana $370,000.00 -34.2%
Garden Grove $379,250.00 -34.6%
I think I need a drink.
There is clearly a big difference in asking prices from last year on very nice properties all over OC and more are jumping on board or pulling back for the holidays.
These are not deals they are reflective of the new pricing in OC for 2008.
Anyone saying this is not the case is seriously in denial or worst, but you already know that…
RE is local, get a good agent or a Zip Realty acct. and watch prices drop for yourself, its getting pretty bad out there. Next year with the new pricing and low rates the market may pickup a little, this will set the new price and by xmas 2008 you will see another leg down.