Orange County’s tax collector says that as of Nov. 30, he’s collected $808 million in property taxes so far this billing season. First payments are due Dec. 10. That’s 5% ahead of last year’s pace. Late tax bills have grown in size the past three years as the real estate market’s softened.
Tax Collector Chriss Street say he’s “reassured” that collections are ahead of schedule, crediting new billing and collection efforts for the increase. “I’m optimistic we’ll have a strong performance.”
One should note that Street’s got extra work to do. By April, when property owners’ second bill is due, a total of $4.57 billion needs to be collected, or 9% more than a year ago.
If you got property tax questions, GO HERE
This story will need to be revisited after the delinquency date to know how many can’t afford their tax payments. Just because the ones that can afford it paid a little early doesn’t tell us how many can’t pay.
YOUR BLOGGER: Trust me. We will be watching carefully!
“Risk Of US Recession Now `Elevated’ -CBO Director Orszag
6 minutes ago - Dow Jones News
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)–The risk of a recession in the U.S. is now “elevated,” Congressional Budget Office Director Peter Orszag said in testimony prepared for delivery before the House Budget Committee Wednesday. “The economic outlook right now is particularly uncertain,” Orszag said.
While most backward-looking indicators suggest a relatively healthy economy, the economy has been “buffeted this year by several interlinked shocks,” he said.
Those shocks include turbulence in the subprime mortgage market, decreased confidence within the financial markets, and substantially higher price”
These guys are usually pretty conservative in their outlook.
Is it me or does it appear that some on this blog are hoping people can’t pay their taxes? You guys needs every ounce of bad news to make you happy. You are truly misreable people.
some people just enjoy seeing other being miserable. human nature i guess… that is all.
One of the interesting aspects of blogging is the real time processing of information……….it is sort of like watching a sports event. We bears have a “theory” as the bulls have a “theory”. When news appears that doesn’t support the theory of one side or the other there is this…..hey whats going on here….is this information correct.
I don’t think anyone on this blog wants to see people be miserable.
Shockg
I totally agree with you. Many people on this blog seem to be hoping for bad news in any area to support their desire for a housing collapse so they can buy cheap real estate. IHB is an example and unfortunately to some degree so is the blogger of this column.
I suggest everyone read a post by Drew on the home price down 13.8% thread. What he says makes alot of sense
ShockG I totally agree if we could just a get a news paper that would talk more about unicorns and rainbows and gumdrop forests and the happy folk that live in there we would be better off. Everything has to be negative this and negative that, I think we should be reporting the happy fun things and not these sad subjects. All these people want to deal with facts and prepare for the next turn, I say close the eyes, turn up the KennyG and close the eyes, put your feet up on the dashboard and turn on the cruise control and let the fates take you either down the road or off a cliff….but we will be happy either way.
I believe that there is some pent up anger by many that watched 20 and 30 year old wanna be Donald Trumps flaunt their new and short lived wealth. It is especially maddening to listen to these same people try and “talk up the market” as the real estate bubble is bursting. Most of those talking up the market are young and inexperienced and don’t fully understand the gravity of the situation.
Many people will have very painful life changing experiences because they listened to those that talk up the market when in fact the market is crashing.
Here is an example of what I mean by bursting—-this is a condo in the Northwood section of Irvine……….1650 square feet(from zip)
Price Reduced: 09/16/07 — $659,900 to $639,900
Price Reduced: 10/14/07 — $639,900 to $629,000
Price Reduced: 11/15/07 — $629,000 to $599,000
Price Reduced: 12/02/07 — $599,000 to $559,900
You see this person paid $280,000 for this place in 2000 and now wants to sell….it seems they will continue reducing the price until it sells. The ones that are now in trouble are the other 5 or 6 sellers in the same area that purchased in 2002, -03, -04, -05, -06. Some of these same units sold for nearly $700,000 only two years ago.
Patricio,
That was a damn funny post…..
“turn up the KennyG and close the eyes”
The sad part is that most of the regular bloggers on both sides of the debate are spending so much time and energy on this site and others like it. It amounts to a full time job for many of you. The amount of time wasted is staggering. Think of what you could have accomplished at your real paying jobs, time spent with family, the books you could have read, etc. My advice to all of you (you know who you are) is to take a week off and don’t even read the real estate news. Right now, you are so caught up in this that you think blogging is important work and that you are influencing public opinion in a meaningful way. You need to take a step back and re-evaluate. I guarantee that after a week or so, you will see that you are not shaping the course of events. You probably tell yourself that this is educational and stimulating for you. Well, the marginal benefit of your time spent on this site has diminished to zero. If you are spending time here to learn about economics or some aspects of finance or some other specific topics of interest to you, you would be much better served by reading a text book or taking some courses — several top universities now offer many of their lectures online for free. Reclaim your lives.
Nano, the sad part is that they shouldn’t even care. Listen to Mad Money Cramer and take his advice….walk away. Get out from underneath the burdens of that home and walk or run and get away how ever you can. Start over go back to school, get a new career or try something else. Realize that the game is over and start anew, I don’t understand why this is so hard….grasp reality and move on. Life is not over, it is a setback for sure but just realize you were conned and lied to and brought into a pyramid type scam and move on. The party is over, the RE industry is a dead duck, there is no more champagne days it is more like Top Raman now. The bottom line is there is nothing wrong with this, it is life start over and move on, and guess what it might just happen again and again…that is life.
What Nanowest didn’t tell you was that we could also find sales were people sold for something within striking distance of what they needed. Those same people would have been wronged by taking the advice of people like him who “talk down the market”. It is all a matter of perspective. And what Nanowest also fails to acknowledge as a possiblilty, is that much of the damage may have already occurred. Just a thought.
Patricio and Nanowest
Lets see how candid and honest each of you can be.
How many BK’s and Foreclosures have each of you had throughout your life time ?
To be honest you both sound like serial dead beats
usedtoread,
lets get some honesty out of you……… what is your situation?
Serial deadbeats who thinks society owes them something.
Yeah we are realistic…what a concept to read the data and not spin it and digest it and then move forward from the facts. First off this is a blog about RE not me, I don’t have enemies here like Truthi/Roc thinks or even you. I don’t care, I am here to talk about RE and maybe help some people avoid the pitfalls that others got caught up in. Look at Roc, he put a big chunk of change down on a house in later 2006, he is screeewwweed…and if he had a blog like this to help him maybe we could have avoided that gigantic mistake? That is what this is about, not perception not what you see happening on your block, the real data not RA spin or RE industry happy talk, just getting to the facts and cutting through the spin and bs that desperate FBer or RE pros spew like ROC/Truthi. Hopefully one person will take some of this and not make the mistakes that ROC/Truthi or the plethora of others made.
Exactly Shockg….NO BAIL OUT!
Amen my brotha AMEN!
Mav
You are a hypocrite. You never revealed yiur true motives as requested so how can you ask others to answer your question.
As always your devious personality is revealed
usedtoread….. motives? I gave you my exact situation plain and simple…. Nanowest did the same……
you give nothing…. so I ask again…. what is your situation? when did you buy? were you in the RE business?
Jon,
Just curious, did Chris Street say how much was supposed to be collected by December 10? You mention 9% more year to year to be collected in April. Was 9% more to be collected by December 10? If that’s the case, we’re behind, no?
Man…the bad vibes on this blog are so pervasive it’s becoming even more painful to read. Calling each other serial deadbeats?
I have to agree with Mac. My life is SO much better since I quite taking this blog seriously, and check in now only once or twice per week. Reading the antics here is far more fun than sparring with others.
Since moving on with my life, I have more energy to devote to my business and my family. Meanwhile, as the real estate industry needs more information to better understand the current market, my business just continues to grow. In fact, I am one of those OC property owners who has already paid his ENTIRE 2008 property tax bill! I hate paying taxes….but it’s a great feeling to know I will not write another check until next November.
Take Mac’s advice. Save yourselves! Go do some business. Make some friends. Read a book or two. Spend more time with your children, parents or pets if you have them. Craft a creative Christmas message to our blogger and thank him for his hard work.
Above all….enjoy the spirit of the holiday season more than the mean-spiritedness too often seen here. Merry Christmas to all!
Pat and Mac
That’s good advice
Thanks.
blogging can also become an addiction. i have seen people spend their entire day doing this.
remember to be moderate when it comes to blogging.
fascination with it is not a healthy thing.
Shockg, used to read and others………
So that you don’t attack my credibility….
I have a B.S. in Chemistry and Math, MS in Chemistry from Purdue, Ph.D. Physical Chemistry from Wesleyan University, Post Doc at Cal Tech, and an Executive MBA from Stanford. I’ve started 3 companies that have employed hundreds of people and sold products that are used throughout the world. I have 20 patents. My first company had substantial problems when the venture capitalist aborted a $2,000,000 financing. I recently started a new venture that is self funded. My salary is about 12,500 per month.
I’ve owned 4 or 5 homes over the past 25 years. The second home sold at a loss of $250,000 in 1991. I made over a million dollars selling two homes in 2000 and 2005. The second sale was due to my divorce from my wife of 19 years.
I am not rich, but I have enough money to live a comfortable life style. I have no dept. My greatest pleasure in life is from seeing other use my inventions.
ShockG………………………………………..lets have your information.
Great post Mac. I’m over it. Off to be more productive.
Thanks rants for the post above very informative!
I don’t mean to be Clintonesque, but what is the definition of an early payment? Taxes are due November 10th, but no penalty is assessed if they are paid by December 10th. It appears that in the context of this article that anything paid prior to December 10th is considered early. If anything paid after December 10th is considered late, what would an on-time payment be?
I think a lot of people should be upset if they took out conservative 30-year fixed loans and a bunch of risk-takers took out ARMS and now have a chance of getting bailed-out. Also, those who were priced out of the market by all these people along with speculators should be upset. Those of you hoping that prices stay at this level are unrealistic and greedy, you should just cash out and move to Arizona if you want all your equity because the writing is on the wall.
ShockG, Usedtoread, and others……
My response to your accusations that I am a deadbeat are waiting for moderation…..please check back later for my response, it went in at 10:55.
Nanowest
Like anyone really cares
One thing I’d like to know… some bulls here say that bears want pain & misery so there is a crash and so that they resultingly can buy on CHEAP real estate.
I want to know Bulls: if a house that has generally has sold over 15 years in the $250-$400K range, then temporariliy & artficially spikes to $7, 8 or even $900K (granite countertops & travertine!) over the course of the next 4 years, and then falls back to $500K (on it’s original/normal trajectory)… is $500K CHEAP? Even simpler, do you think 1/2Million Bucks for a basic stucco box is cheap? I guess I wish I was as well off as you.
I think bears want to buy RE at NORMAL, HEALTHY prices, not ‘on the cheap’. You remind me of the CA government and Grey Davis (recalled governer) who thought the revenues with the tech bubble were NORMAL, even when a 3rd grader could look at a simple chart and see a massive spike at a certain point in time that corresponeded with a stock boom/bubble.
Rants,
It is important not to rank Pat V in with prognosticators such as Gary Watts. I have not followed all of his posts but have had several direct conversations with him regarding how numbers are crunched and I don’t think he has ever gotten into predictions. He crunches numbers and looks at the past. When I pressed him that I think this market was tanking much harder than his numbers were showing, all he said was the data wasn’t showing that …yet.
So were all suppose to get a life now? Here’s the one I want. Normalacy. Normal prices on normal homes. The problems all stem from the lunacy of an abnormal real estate market. The sooner it returns to normalacy the sooner we can all get on with our lives.
PS: If they freeze rates, will they also determine if those buyers should have qualified for that home anyway or whether they intentionally lied on their loan documents?
And if they freeze those rates, can I get my mortgage now at the frozen rates too?
Nano,
Don’t let her get to you.
Shockg, usedtoreadtheregister, buffy, et.al……the are all just ROC/Pebble/Truthi iterations. You know that.
pdu,
Yes, I know……………………………………
What I find particularly amusing about shockg/ROC/Pebbles etc. is that they provide no information about themselves, their credentials, their experiences. To me this suggests that they are just a bit dishonest. Regardless, this is just a blog and is just for entertainment.
Yes, however I prefer entertainment without nastiness. …….and like you I find the repetitive encouragement to buy a bit distasteful.
pdu,
yes, entertainment without nastiness……….I think that if people want to be nasty they should go over to Craig’s list “rants and raves” and get it out of their systems.
I am fascinated by blogging and the anonymous nature of exchanging information. There are a few posters on the IHB that seem to actually work in the real estate industry that provide useful information. Because I do not work in the RE industry I rely on other sources for information. That being said, you never know exactly who(or what) you are dealing with.
“”There is a fifth dimension beyond that
which is known to man. It is a dimension as vast as
space and as timeless as infinity. It is the middle
ground between light and shadow, between science and
superstiition, and it lies between the pit of man’s
fears and the summit of his knowledge. This is the
dimension of imagination. It is an area we call
The Twilight Zone.”
Shouldn’t that be the “Truthiness” Zone?
Thats cute Truthi.
I dont think I antagonize and I know for certain I havnt done any name calling. The thing is Truthi, is that you never seem to answer my direct questions. I had questions two days ago, that graphix answered so comically. Did you not answer because those where too close to your responses?
I thought they where reasonable questions.
Than I asked yesterday what facts you had that most or even many people (particularly first time buyers) had 20% to put down or 60-125K in the bank..and still no response.
I think what has happened here is that there seems to be an attempt at some sort of a debate.
A debate typically involves two parties presenting opposing views. Both sides present facts and compelling reasoning and arguments that support their position.
From most of the bulls I find that we get neither facts nor a compelling argument. All that leaves us with is a filibuster of their position in hopes of tiring out the opposition and than attempt to claim some sort of victory. I feel that facts on the logical reasoning outweigh any of the speculation presented by the bulls. So filibuster away and ignore questions you know you cant answer since they will not support your bull position.
Samson, I would have answered you (like I always do) had you not chosen to side with Graphrix. You have made your bed, so enjoy your bedfellows!
“Than I asked yesterday what facts you had that most or even many people (particularly first time buyers) had 20% to put down or 60-125K in the bank..and still no response.”
Neither of us has adequate data to answer this definitively, so let’s not pretend otherwise.
“From most of the bulls I find that we get neither facts nor a compelling argument.”
Samson, I gave out facts like they were Holloween candy yesterday. How can I take you seriously after a comment like this? Do you have intermittent amnesia?
Well as far as savings is concerned I have posted facts that the US is at its lowest savings rate of negative 1% since the great depression. That seems factual to me. If you think that the OC isnt immune than you are naive. Give me sometime and by Friday I will drum up some better facts.
I didnt side with anyone, I thought he was pretty funny in his responses. You dont have to answer, but it sounds more like you are afraid to respond than so concerned with who I “side” with .
I think it is an interesting thing to ponder. What was the income to home cost ratio pre 2000 as compared to today, and was has changed so much in 7 years to justify it being so high and not reverting back to similar levels.
The only facts I have seen from you in the last few days are rates and types of loans that lenders claim they offer. I didnt see anything that proved anyone was actually getting said loans.
To me it is sort of like seeing an ad for the car you want at a great price, but when you get there the car is gone and the price for the same is 30% higher. What you didnt do was read the fine print that stated they had one at that price.
So those numbers you offer are far from facts. Your use of 20% down for every loan isnt factual nor is your tax deduction calculation. So your rent vs. own argument isnt factual.
So what other FACTS have you provided?
PAT I didnt ask you to “debate” what you provide I simply
asked a quick description of what it is you do… what
service you provide damn was it that hard to answer…
secondly I’m not in “real estate” so why would it matter
to this blog what I do… it wouldnt because its irrelavant
the video I posted is just a short history of fiat money
and the federal reserve and frankly I dont give a damn
if you read it or not
Samson, I don’t recall your questions being that compelling, but: I have owned many homes over many years. I never considered any of them overpriced enough to give me pause. I can easily afford my home with the tradional financing I have in place. I have both savings and a SEP-IRA. I like salmon, cabernet savignon, skiing and rap music. My favorite color is orange and I like the smell of Lever Brothers body wash.
Well you skirted the questions so I have my answer. Thanks.
Samson, you won’t get an answer. You never do.
In general bulls are good at straw man arguments, diversion, ad hominem attacks, etc.
Truthi is a troll whose single goal is to get an angry response from one of the rational posters on here.
Don’t engage him/her/it unless you wish to waste time.
There you go!
Ignore Truthi ……………………and maybe…………………..maybe she’ll venture elsewhere.
Can we do it? I can.
One can hope.
truthi likes “rap” music…. need I say more?
The neighbors hope she’s forced to sell.
It’s getting ugly; check the MLS for houses sold in the past 6 months compared to last year. In SO CAL, it is pushing 30-40%. Then if someone actually submits an acceptable offer, there a 50-50 chance that it will never close escrow.
If everyone pays their prop taxes by credit cards, then they can flip the credit card companies off. Who cares about credit card companies these days? The big “W”?
There is a lot more to this story than market values. I wonder what other kinds of fuzzy math our tax collector utlilizes? He claims that his efforts are to credit for being 5% ahead in collections at this point. Yet tax bills require him to collect 9% more this year. Using the math I learned in school, this means that he’s really 4% behind collections of last year at this point…………….