Here's recent history of the Fed’s policy committee and its Fed Funds rate. Next Fed decision is June 24/25.
Calif. had biggest U.S. home-price drops in Sept.
November 19th, 2007, 5:52 pm · 96 Comments · posted by Jeff Collins
Register real estate reporter Jeff Collins reports …
California home prices fell 12.7% in September from the year before, the nation’s biggest year-over-year price drop that month, according to the First American LoanPerformance Home Price Index released today. The index tracks more than 30 years of repeat sales transactions.
Prices in the Los Angeles-Orange County metro area fell by 8.1% in September, sixth highest among the top 30 metro areas, the company reported. It was the eighth straight month that prices here have shown a year-over-year decline. The Inland Empire led the nation’s top 30 metro areas in price declines. Prices there fell 13.6% from September 2006.
Seventeen states had price declines, LoanPerformance reported. Nevada had the nation’s second-highest price decline, with home prices falling 9.3%, followed by Florida (-8.2%) and Arizona (-7.4%).
Six states showed gains of 5% or more. Prices were up 16.7% in Hawaii, followed by Alabama (8.3%), Wyoming (7.2%) Maine (6.9%), Utah (6.2%) and North Carolina (5.4%).
To see the LoanPerformance press release, CLICK HERE.
November 19th, 2007 at 6:40 pm
I am sure that truthiness will comment any minute proclaiming “Look! Real Estate is going up in 5 states ! It’s a sign of a turnaround.”
Truthiness, you are a liar. This market is dead.
November 19th, 2007 at 6:49 pm
UHH………..
That’s not good.
When in history has a RE downturn hit so many areas throughout the nation like this? Anyone have any information on that?
November 19th, 2007 at 7:17 pm
Time to buy!
November 19th, 2007 at 8:37 pm
Anyone who thinks this is good has their head ….. (YOUR BLOGGER: Let’s watch the language!)
November 19th, 2007 at 9:54 pm
This dear readers is just the beginning… second inning of a
nine inning game the resets coming next year will create a tsunami
of foreclosures that will flood the market just as the credit market
contractionmakes it hard for even those with preferred credit to
buy… banks wont want to lend money on a depreciating asset and
by this time next year even the kens of the world will no longer be able to deny the obvious… it will truely be the times that try mens souls…
even wall street is having a hard time disguising the troubles that are
fast approaching
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDYk2EV7L.Vk&refer=home
November 19th, 2007 at 10:52 pm
sorry I got the dollar collapsing article confused with the stock market
crashing article prepare yourselves dear readers it aint gettin
any better from here….
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-stocks-drop-dow-closes/story.aspx?guid=%7BFF18439C%2DF827%2D42C5%2DAD77%2D2C6A1735B66E%7D
November 19th, 2007 at 11:07 pm
unfortumately i think rants is right… more job loss, lower dollar, less spending this season, more credit issues, more foreclosures - the r word is coming.
November 19th, 2007 at 11:23 pm
Register real estate reporter Jeff Collins reports …California has a biggest US home price drops in September 2007.
2000 is the Internet Age. News travel within days now.
You and OC Register can do much better than that…Common.
November 20th, 2007 at 5:54 am
Goldman Sachs issued a gloomy report on the U.S. financial services sector, saying housing prices are likely to fall a lot further, write-downs will mount.
Falling house prices and a worsening economy will drive down securities based on residential mortgages, especially those given to borrowers with the riskiest credit.
“Investor appetite for high-yielding subprime mortgage securities fuelled the home pricing bubble and this investor market is not coming back”
Words of wisdom
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071120/bs_nm/goldman_banks_research_dc_2
November 20th, 2007 at 7:19 am
September = credit crunch. Old news.
November 20th, 2007 at 7:44 am
Shockg,
“September = credit crunch. Old news.”
You can go back in your cave now Shockg……… the Credit Crunch is just starting…….. if it helps you to simplify it as a one month occurence….. by all mean… go for it….. just try not to read any newspapers.
Treat the Credit Crunch like that football game you missed but video taped…….. try not to read any current news over the next year……
November 20th, 2007 at 8:07 am
“Truthiness, you are a liar. This market is dead.”
“O.C. home demand up 16% in 6 weeks”
November 20th, 2007 at 8:17 am
Why after 12.7% price decline, home price still sky high and unreachable?
November 20th, 2007 at 8:25 am
“O.C. home demand up 16% in 6 weeks”
So, thuthiness, is this the bottom? Is that the call you’re making? What exactly is your forecast? Sales will rise from this point on? Median prices will rise from now?
November 20th, 2007 at 8:38 am
I just simply STOP reading any article from Jeff Collin from OC Register Reporter for a long time. His articles are mislead, useless, and worst adverstisment in disguise.
I do not know the reason his report shows up in Lansner’s column.
November 20th, 2007 at 8:43 am
I saw this coming in 2004 and decided to move out of the state to purchase my home. Turns out I did the right thing. The state I moved to is still doing pretty well despite the current market. I am sure glad I didn’t buy in OC, and I chuckle at the people who rushed to pay top dollar for low end housing. The house I bought for $210k (3 bedroom, 1 den, 2 bath, 1560 sq feet, 7000sq ft lot) was worth over $600k in California. Some people said I was crazy for moving and they said the cost of living was so cheap because wages were low. Two months after I arrived I was making more than what I was in California.
The California foreclosure market is good for the people with good credit who didn’t get into a mortgage that took up 80% of our incomes. Now I just need to figure out which foreclosure in California I want to buy. Seems like I will have a lot of choices in OC.
November 20th, 2007 at 8:44 am
California is no longer as desirable as it once was. People feel that living with good weather is not enough to outweigh the cons of SoCal-horrible traffic, job instability, overpriced real estate, aging communities-these are all turning people away.
November 20th, 2007 at 8:51 am
lol @ mav, good call clemente I’d really like to know too
November 20th, 2007 at 8:54 am
I do wonder why the blogosphere is taking such a gloom-and-doom tone to these real estate price drops. True, dropping real estate prices are uncommon, but predicting 30%? How exactly do you foresee that? The more likely explanation is that the most gloom-and-doom folks are renters, shorters and others who have a vested interest in seeing real estate drop.
November 20th, 2007 at 8:55 am
carlos,
i don’t see how you can jump for joy when there are people out there who are hurting right now.
many of these people have to put up their houses for sale because they can not afford to pay their arm mortgages anymore.
i personally have a few mexican friends who lost their home in sa because of this.
i am not working in the real estate industry but having seen first hand how badly many people are hurt in cleveland right now…i talk to the people in cleveland and NO ONE think the housing recession they have now is good for anyone.
November 20th, 2007 at 8:57 am
and this shiny guy think a housing depression is GOOD for the us economy. what an IDIOT.
so before you guys gang up on truthi, better be careful in what you are wishing for.
November 20th, 2007 at 9:00 am
The things keeping the RE market burning hot for the past 3 years (even as everyone and their mother was saying prices must fall) was cheap financing and exotic mortgages. Both of these things happen to be being choked out at this point, so how will the current prices be supported? It’s simple, they can’t and won’t. Banks know it, Wall Street knows it, lenders know it, but Joe Six-Pack doesn’t WANT to know or understand it. They heard their friends/neighbors bragging about how they just made $200,000 flipping a house and saw it as the biggest no brainer. They just HAD to get into the market before it was too late. And lo and behold, their ignorance and lenders’ willingless to prey on said ignorance resulted in their ability to get into the market that they had no business being in. This is who is REALLY going to suffer. Word to the wise: If you can’t read and understand it, don’t sign it.
November 20th, 2007 at 9:00 am
OC native,
I certainly take no joy in people losing their homes but why should I feel sorry for them? They are losing homes that they should have been in the first place. In essence, they were renting to live in their homes and now the rent has gone up, they cannot afford to live there anymore.
I probably could have bought but decided that it was not financially prudent to do so. Why should I feel sorry for someone who makes $50K and all of a sudden decided that they wanted to buy a $600K house?
November 20th, 2007 at 9:01 am
i personally hope for a soft landing rather a hard landing.
for the record, i used to argue with real estate agent back in the summer of 2005 about the us housing bubble.
November 20th, 2007 at 9:01 am
Correction: They are losing homes that they should NOT have been in the first place
November 20th, 2007 at 9:05 am
I must be in the minority to think that all this is not bad at all. Really if you look at the inflated house price the past few years, it was really getting out of hand. I make 100k a year and would have problem buying a house because it was too damn expensive. Now let the price drop and drop some more so the prices on these homes come down to reasonable level.
November 20th, 2007 at 9:06 am
people make mistake and they are paying dearly for it.
but for some of the people here to jump for joy to see entire family becoming homeless….there is something wrong with that.
November 20th, 2007 at 9:11 am
OC Native…you as well as others here think us realistic bears are wishing for pain and suffering. Let me get something straight, we are like someone looking through a telescope and seeing a giant comet coming towards the Earth, there is nothing we can do about it and we are not wishing doom and gloom, but we are going to tell people what we see coming. Because we are realistic and see what is ahead, you think we revel in the pain of others, that isn’t the case….well not in most…I would like to see the greed driven architects of this disaster feel some pain. I would also like to see the President impeached for his actions, if not imprisoned for crippling the Country I love. However, we both know it will fall on our backs, and the rich and powerful will skate on their ill deeds…but I can wish.
I thought you gave up on this blog and were returning to RE to make a bundle btw….what happened?
November 20th, 2007 at 9:17 am
patricio,
again for the record i never work in the re industry. i do not plan to buy any house here no matter how low price will go. i own a house in fv to live near my place of employment.
i assume you are an apartment renter and have been renting for the past few years?
November 20th, 2007 at 9:17 am
OC Native,
I do not think anyone is jumping for joy to see people become homeless. I think many “bears” (I consider myself one for the time being) are simply speaking out about the whacked out state of the housing market for the past 4-6 years and the grief that they got from all the realtors, friends, family and the media about how they need to buy buy buy. No one commends prudent action anymore. Instead, society is interested in how much money one person can make in the shortest time possible.
I see this last housing bubble as a giant ponzi scheme. Many people were whipped up into a lather about how great it is to own a home even if it was 20, 30, 40, or 50 percent over priced. You have people (still to this day) claim how great it is to buy and how stupid someone is if they do not buy. While people did make mistake, it was mostly because they were blinded by their own greed. Many people thought that they would be able to flip their house in 1, 2 or 3 years for double the value and buy up. That is what fueled the bubble in the first place and now no one wants to take their medicine.
It is no different than those people who get their first credit card, charge it to the max, and then are shocked when they figure out that they have to pay for it a month later.
November 20th, 2007 at 9:18 am
patricio,
in fact i plan to retire early in another country outside the us.
November 20th, 2007 at 9:19 am
People make mistakes, but buying a house you can’t afford just so you can say you own, is not a mistake. It’s a decision. A Bad decision. People who took really bad loan products so they could get financed since they had bad credit are now getting what they signed up for. If they read their loan paperwork, they would’ve known it was coming. Far too often, people just sign their name on the dotted line and don’t read what they are getting into. That’s their fault. The coddling in America has got to stop. Just because that bed you made doesn’t look comfortable anymore doesn’t mean we have to feel sorry for you when you have to sleep in it.
And saying someone is going to be homeless because they lost their house to foreclosure is silly. There are thousands of apartment complexes in California with openings that they can turn to.
November 20th, 2007 at 9:26 am
Oh, another bitter however well off blogger, what a surprise, that would be what….the 5-6-7-8-9…oh screw it they are all doing great none are unemployed RE industry fallout…sure.
Good luck on retirement, hopefully the dollar will still have some buying power against the Peso, after Bush and his criminal crew are done driving us off a cliff.
November 20th, 2007 at 9:30 am
patricio,
you think bush is the driving force behind this housing problem?
you must be dumber than i think.
fyi, i plan to keep on working after i retire and get out of the us.
November 20th, 2007 at 9:33 am
I don’t wish for J6P to suffer. In fact, I find it sad that such a person can go through life and never study personal finance. Now I am not suggesting that everyone go get an MBA in Finance (though I did). I just don’t think that someone with absolutely no education or experience regarding loans and finance has any business financing anything of significant value…especially a house. It’s a sad commentary about the industry in general… Pump up everyone’s ego and greed to the point that they start taking risks that they do not understand. For my part, I didn’t buy 3 years ago even though I could have. I had a minimal amount to put down, but that didn’t matter. However, I am just lucky to have the knowledge that I have (and by no means do I know even close to everything there is to know). I do feel sorry for the people who are misled, but hey, you know what they say about a fool and his money. Take your lumps, learn from it, move on.
November 20th, 2007 at 9:38 am
irvine commuter
i agree with what you say for the most part.
however many of these buyers do not know what they are getting into.
everyone, starting with the loan broker, then the real estate agents, and those damn greedy wall street guys who bundle and sell these toxic loans are just as guilty.
November 20th, 2007 at 9:46 am
Freddie Mac’s capital shortage will mean that it will reduce its secondary market purchases of mortgages which will continue to squeeze the credit crunch further. Fannie Mae is expected to have a similar capital shortfall, and it too will start to reduce its secondary market purchases. Sadly, both of these actions would likely lead to a rise in long term interest rates to make it more attractive for Freddie and Fannie to buy. Higher interests = lower home prices.
If both these government backed companies reduce their purchases in the secondary market as predicted by Wall Street, the real estate decline is FAR FROM OVER.
The proverbial tip of the iceberg folks.
November 20th, 2007 at 9:52 am
i hate to see people lose their houses too but seeing home prices drop, credit/financing tightening up and foreclosure rates soaring, i can only be happy that i didn’t get involved with that mess.
how sad is it when your house will never be worth what you paid for it?
November 20th, 2007 at 9:53 am
Carlos,
I love the typos and your poor grammar, it makes this blog a must read every so often just by itself. Looks like my 20% drop that I have so often stated as my prediction in the median, is going to wind up being too conservative the way things are going, but we will see. The Plunge Protection Team is lurking so maybe they are ready to act again. They are active in equities almost daily.
Jon, I just talked with Robert Campbell the other day who I have gotten to know a little bit. It might be a good interview to follow up with him, the bears will love his current view on things.
November 20th, 2007 at 10:20 am
Patricio OcNative Irvinecommuter,
As I read your comments, I agreed you all have valid arguments. One thing that I do notice that all of you agreed is that this crazy re market was driven by greed by the people in the profession (this include re agent, banker, speculator, etc). But do not blame these people for their greedy behavior. To greedy is to be human. Every one of us can not deny that we one time or another in our life is tempted to act selfishly for our own benefit.
I place the blame on the devil that tempts these people to act on their greed. Mr. VP Dick and his economic stimulus plan after 9-11 which make the dollar so cheap for people to get their hands on. It only takes a couple of creative finance people to come up with all sort of creative mortgage loans and the rest is history.
November 20th, 2007 at 10:23 am
trader the PPT is doin more than lurkin how else can
you explain why the market hasnt done a kamakaze dive?
our economy is doin its version of wylie coyote- sitting
in dumb-founded suspension while holding an anvil llooll
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/freddie-macs-loss-more-doubles/story.aspx?guid=%7BA1CC3D81%2D7585%2D43DD%2DB9BF%2DB84AB2E57AFD%7D
November 20th, 2007 at 10:33 am
The housing bubble was just another example of the greedy society we live in. Nobody really cared about building real long-time wealth. It is all about making a quick buck and getting out of the market before things fall apart.
The banks knew that this bubble was going to burst at some point but they didn’t do anything about it until it was too late. Now they are paying the price.
The regulators (ie Federal Reserve) watched the bubble getting bigger and bigger and did nothing about it. Now they are overreacting by giving banks guidelines for lending money and having to bring the dollar down to the floor.
The Bush administration touted subprime mortgages as a good example of the “ownership society” where everybody could achieve the “American Dream”. Oh, really? Tell that to the thousands of people loosing their homes now. Where is their American Dream?
The realtors didn’t care this was going to blow up on their faces at some point. They kept telling people to buy because they would be priced out of the market. Now, of course, Realtors are blaming the media and most of them are virtually unemployed or got a real job.
and finally, the buyers were greedy and took on more risks that they could afford. Now, many of them are facing foreclosure.On top of that, they used their houses as ATMs spending money they didn’t even have. Now they have no equity to take money from. Let’s see what they do now.
Unfortunately, I don’t think we are going to learn much from this experience, just like we didn’t learn from the Savings and Loans debacle of the eighties or the Dot Com bust of the nineties.
The US national debt was 5.6 trillion when Bush assumed office back in 2001. Now, the national debt is 9 trillion. We almost doubled it in 6 years. We live on borrowed money and we are going to pay the price for it.
http://www.nationalbubble.com/
November 20th, 2007 at 10:37 am
If you have time to read up on other issues outside of housing, you would get a tiny grasp of the overall picture and maybe a tiny inkling of the problems wrought on this Country and around the world….that is a big maybe though. Housing, yep well it sure sucks and it is going to suck, but there are some big problems on the way and yes Bush AND his people are directly responsible for these problems. We are led by people who fail at checkers while other world leaders are chess masters, I am not surprised at the outcome.
November 20th, 2007 at 10:44 am
Good. Orange County real estate was way overpriced. Half a million for a hovel like I live in! Way too much. Plus haven’t you all heard of urban sprawl? All the companies that can are relocating to states like Arkansas and Kentucky because its cheaper for them too! California has to compete you know!
November 20th, 2007 at 10:45 am
patty,
i learn to copy and paste article just like you too!
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071113/vacant_homes_crime.html?.v=1&.pf=insurance
November 20th, 2007 at 10:47 am
OC NATIVE #9
Let all those people that cant afford there homes and foreclosing live on the streets. They are the ones that did the LIAR LOANS….
They are also the ones that have put our economy in a VERY bad situation…..
I have no sympathy at all for them they committed FRAUD and should b PROSECUTED!!!!!!
They have now affected others like me that didnt lie and pay way to much for home because of hype ..they thought homes never go down in price….lolll
November 20th, 2007 at 10:52 am
horny wood,
you finish washing the dishes yet?
November 20th, 2007 at 10:55 am
With the Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae problems, how does that effect the Ben B proposal to raise the conforming limits?
November 20th, 2007 at 11:09 am
The mystery is starting to unfold. Many of the extreme bears on this blog are more concerned with politics and bringing down Bush than realistically discussing the housing market. I can see now where all of the hate and vitriolic language is coming from, especially from the likes of Rants, Patricio and perhaps even the main movers behind IHB.Their hatred of Bush totally distorts their abilitit to accept anything that is not a doom and gloom scenario. However I think people like Mav, Lee and Bill are just driven by evil greed. That being said, this blog has many political overtones that I am sure will rachet up the closer we get to the election.
November 20th, 2007 at 11:11 am
oc native
yep dishes done
Maybe u should go hang out with ur liar loan friends and uneducated foreclosed buddies.. go feel sorry for ur FRAUDULANT FRIENDS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I figured u were some kinda criminal mind
November 20th, 2007 at 11:12 am
truthiness, Where are you? Again, I ask is this the bottom? Is that the call you’re making? What exactly is your forecast? Sales will rise from this point on? Median prices will rise from now? Put yourself out there. Let’s hear something definitive from you.
November 20th, 2007 at 11:15 am
horny wood,
i understand you have a thing for patty. don’t forget to go to patty and comfort her/him too.
November 20th, 2007 at 11:16 am
PResident Bush will go down as one of thebiggest TRICKY DICKs of all..
History will show that!!!!
P.s. us debt very close to double with his term in office
Oil man texas guy Bush gas prices nearly tripled in his term
Oh and have u seen any Weapons mass destruction….lolll
and the list goes on
November 20th, 2007 at 11:17 am
horny wood,
for your info, oc sanitation district is dumping more crap today into newport harbor. i think the stinky smell is affecting your brain.
November 20th, 2007 at 11:21 am
Used,
I am bearish on housing
I am a member of the GOP.
I don’t believe this is the fault of politicians, or even of lawyers. I just feel that economic history has always been two steps forward, one step back, but incremental progress in the long term.
Typically, we will haev one rational step forward, like the gains from that so much that we also take an irrational and unsustainable further step forward. Then we come back to earth, and that step gets wiped out - the positive being that we still have that incremental gain from the initial step.
November 20th, 2007 at 11:26 am
oc native
Im sorry i cant beleive anything u say it may be fraudulant just like ur feel sorry for friends are one big Fraud
November 20th, 2007 at 11:27 am
People will still be able to buy, as long as their credit is good and they have a down payment.
The problem lies with the pricing of homes. The unrealistic increase in home values resulted because of many factors (sub primes, illegal appraisals, unrealistic expectations of home ownership, etc.). Home prices need to be realistic and align with local income levels.
During the last few years, market pricing rose to a very unrealistic level. Once home prices come down to realistic levels, more people will be able to buy. In other words, the market needs to correct what should have never occurred and this may take some time.
For those feeling the pain of this crunch, I’m sorry this happened to you. I do know that Congress is currently working to create guidelines that will aid those involved in future home purchases. Perhaps those who are caught up in this mess should just let their homes go. Once prices drop to realistic levels, they can then purchase another – more affordable - home. I wish you the best of luck…
November 20th, 2007 at 11:30 am
clemente Says:
November 20th, 2007 at 11:12 am
“truthiness, Where are you? Again, I ask is this the bottom? Is that the call you’re making? What exactly is your forecast? Sales will rise from this point on? Median prices will rise from now? Put yourself out there. Let’s hear something definitive from you.”
I am not your lapdog, clemente.
If you want more from me, read the comments from the past 10 days and you will have your answer.
November 20th, 2007 at 11:31 am
the government doesnt want any competition when it comes
to printing phony money check it out…
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2007/11/19/if_its_good_enough_for_mickey.html
you cant make gold or silver coins but the government can print worthless paper that has no backing
November 20th, 2007 at 11:32 am
horny wood,
i am going to lunch now.
SO MAKE SURE YOU KEEP THOSE DISHES REALLY CLEAN!
November 20th, 2007 at 11:56 am
When are people going to take accountability for their actions? Stop blaming the government for their stupidness in trying to buy something that they can’t afford. I hope the government doesn’t step and in bail these people out. They should have known better to buy a $650k house when they only make $50k a year. Personal accoutability people!!!!! Be responsible for your own actions!
November 20th, 2007 at 12:05 pm
OC Native #9 you have some nerve.
People who make stupid decisions on purchasing and dump their families into financial peril because they chose not to be prudent do not deserve sympathy. It may not be fun to have to face consequences, but the consequences to buying a home for far more than they could realistically afford truly belongs to them.
The fact that real estate became such a mass speculative phenomenon and homes became ATM’s and people bought into the mass hysteria that they must buy or be priced out forever does not mean I should pity anyone.
Bears do not celebrate people losing their homes. They celebrate sanity re-entering the market so they do not have to sacrifice their financial futures for a place to live.
Bears aren’t happy that families are forced out of their homes.
We are pissed off at the realtors who talked them into homes they couldn’t afford in the first place.
Bears don’t want the market to fail.
We are rightfully furious that the greed and lust for money for doing nearly nothing will cost our economy so much.
Bears don’t like to see people out of work.
We are instead annoyed that so many people were put to work ending american dreams with greed.
So don’t blame a crappy market on bears or claim that we are reveling in people’s pain.
We did not create this problem. That was largely created by lying realtors and loan brokers.
We did not make people buy at stupid prices. They did that themselves.
We did not create the stupid mass psychology that housing prices only will go up forever. We instead tried to point out to our friends that leveraged debt on investment amplifies gains, but also amplifies losses.
You can stick your ridiculous opinions on bears where the sun does not shine. (Then again in your case, it probably does.)
November 20th, 2007 at 12:06 pm
OC native,
I dont think that anyone here is cheering for a housing crash in hopes to punish those that bought homes they never should have bought. That being said, I think what you call a “housing depression” and what others call a realistic price correction is good for the economy. First it will help those that have had a difficult time getting into even the most modest of homes. A cheaper morgatge and downpayment will allow them to have more disposable income to fuel the rest of the economy.
Home ownership spurs a sense of community, people take part in the world around them and work towards making it a better place.
Lower home prices will actually end up helping those that may lose their homes, being that they will be able to buy homes they can actually afford. You tie this with good lending policy such as the ones that the Fed Gov. are looking at now, that insure that loans are made to those that can actually afford them.
All of this is good for the economy, high housing prices hurts all the other sectors of the economy.
To get slighty political. I dont think it is any one persons fault, just policy mistakes. It is just a fact, for the economy and society as a whole, supply side economic poilicy doesnt work. It helps a few at the top, but the money just doesnt trickle down to the rest of society as good as it should, because once the valve is turned off. Those at the bottom get hit the hardest.
All this crazy lending was just putting off the payment due date later and later. Now the bills are due and the interest is out of control.
We need to get back to where lending standards are realistic, people can actually save some money to buy and home values go up at a nominal rate such as 5% a year.
November 20th, 2007 at 12:15 pm
Truthiness. Good to see you at work on the blog this meeting.
Did your NAR check clear ?
After all, you are a hardworking paid employee.
November 20th, 2007 at 12:20 pm
truthiness wrote: “I am not your lapdog, clemente.
If you want more from me, read the comments from the past 10 days and you will have your answer.”
Nope. Don’t see an answer to my question. I see a lot of bluster and name-calling, but I just don’t see a person that has the guts to make a clear, definitive call. You know, one that can be examined at a later date to see how it pans out.
That’s cool. I just thought you might like the chance to say something substantive.
November 20th, 2007 at 12:28 pm
Usedtoread….if you like traitors and failures, then I suspect you support Bush. Well then good for you, I would rather support a true conservative and not a traitor to the office and the flag, sorry I love my Country and not fond of those who willingly and knowingly work to destroy it out of blind greed/selfishness. That is just me, you like him and his results good for you, and I hope your children and grandchildren enjoy the legacy left behind they will thank you for your blind support of this man.
But yeah….housing sucks, Bush sucks…I am wondering even if we can elect a patriot and a man of honor like Ron Paul can we get him to fix this in 8 years, I doubt it. Unfortunately, probably not and we will be stuck with a loser like Hillary or Guiliani. Whatever….housing sucks moving on, go listen to Hannity or Rush they will help you think and support neo-con traitors.
November 20th, 2007 at 12:30 pm
I guess you have my number clemente. I have said until I am blue in the face that prices are all over the board right now. I suppose some are at their bottom as we speak. Others may bottom at -40% from peak - it all depends on the specifics and price of the properties in question. As for the median: I think it will bobble up and down for the next 6-12 months - it could drop further semi-permanently. Then a period of stability and longer-term appreciation slightly more than the lesser of the rate of inflation or rate of increase in replacement costs.
I am not a believer in medians and other macro measures. Show me a specific house and I will tell you where I think it could be.
November 20th, 2007 at 12:31 pm
And clemente……you are dead wrong. I make definitive statements often.
November 20th, 2007 at 12:32 pm
Thank you Patricio, I rest my case
November 20th, 2007 at 12:46 pm
OK, thanks Truthiness. Let me see if I have this right. “prices are all over the board right now” — so some houses prices are going up, some down and some holding steady — is that it? “some are at their bottom as we speak” — so, we have reached a bottom for some areas or specific houses? “Others may bottom at -40% from peak” — but some areas/houses have another 40% to drop. Could a zero % drop house be right next to a 40% drop house? Just curious. “As for the median: I think it will bobble up and down for the next 6-12 months - it could drop further semi-permanently” — not quite following that, but let me try: median prices could go up or down or they could go down “semi-permanently”. OK. Could they go up semi-permanently? Could they stay the same semi-permanently? Could they go up and down and stay the same for an indefinite, semi-permanent period of time? Just trying to pin you down here to a semi-clear statement.
November 20th, 2007 at 12:57 pm
“Truthiness. Let me see if I have this right. “prices are all over the board right now” — so some houses prices are going up, some down and some holding steady — is that it?”
Probably not up, but some down and some steady sounds right.
“some are at their bottom as we speak” — so, we have reached a bottom for some areas or specific houses?”
Yes. I would not speak in terms of areas, but of specific homes.
“Others may bottom at -40% from peak” — but some areas/houses have another 40% to drop. Could a zero % drop house be right next to a 40% drop house? ”
Yes. It all depends on the starting price point and the specifics of the home. Although the 0-40/next door example is quite extreme.
“Just curious. “As for the median: I think it will bobble up and down for the next 6-12 months - it could drop further semi-permanently” — not quite following that, but let me try: median prices could go up or down or they could go down “semi-permanently”. OK. Could they go up semi-permanently? Could they stay the same semi-permanently?Could they go up and down and stay the same for an indefinite, semi-permanent period of time? Just trying to pin you down here to a semi-clear statement.”
Yes. “Semi-permanently” as I have used it means the period during which stability reigns.
November 20th, 2007 at 1:03 pm
Usedtoread…no problem enjoy supporting the worst failure in American history, your legacy will stand for itself. I wonder if they will let anymore gay prostitute fake reporters to spend the night in there to cozy up with the good Christian staff? Well, back to housing glad you like that man, speaks volumes for your ilk.
November 20th, 2007 at 1:07 pm
Thanks Truthiness. Here’s my forecast:
Sales will continue to go down in 2008.
Prices will continue to go down in 2008.
Foreclosures will continue to go down in 2008.
Standard Pacific will go bankrupt in 2008.
Realtors and mortgage brokers will make less in 2008 than they did in 2007.
November 20th, 2007 at 1:15 pm
Correction: Foreclosure will go UP in 2008.
November 20th, 2007 at 1:38 pm
Patricio
Your sexual insecurity is showing. Your projections are very revealing and I must say quite embarrasing for you
November 20th, 2007 at 1:53 pm
yep truthiness is right weve finally hit bottom… after
6 years of double digit increases this one little drop
makes up for everything llooll ok everyone were back
to normal times just ignore those foreclosures you
see in the neighborhood its not like when they finally
sale for 100,000 less than last year it will affect your
propertys value lloollll those sub-primes are already
back in vogue with the foreigners jumping over each
other to buy some more of them llooollll talk about deaf and dumb
November 20th, 2007 at 1:54 pm
usedtoread……..
30 years ago…….. my evil investment banking spawn was still in the womb, just waiting for the opportunity to descend on the OC housing market
MWAH….. hahahahahaha
November 20th, 2007 at 2:00 pm
Mav
Oddly enough that’s pretty much the image I get when I read your postings, an evil witch with a wart on her nose.
November 20th, 2007 at 2:04 pm
usedtoread,
haha, lighten up……. I’m for affordability like most sane people here
you take the housing bubble way to seriously
November 20th, 2007 at 4:19 pm
hey usedtohaveabrain what exactly are you reading now
“flipping overpriced houses for dummies” by the
time youre done with that one the bubble will have popped like a pimple on a teenager
November 20th, 2007 at 4:23 pm
Rants
Aside from posting a few biased links, the majority of your postings are irrelevant and juvenile
November 20th, 2007 at 9:47 pm
Have anybody looked the home prices on any website that reflect the current price, the previous price and rate of appreciation, my advice please do so. This will put you to shame.
People who bought homes in 2000 for 200,000 have gladly placed them for 700,000 defying any logical reasoning and rate of appreciation.
Now this 5-10 or 20 % rate of correction is like peanuts .
Any body disagree. What is more confusing is how people think they deserve 300-400% appreciation in value of their homes? I guess price is in eye of seller.LOL
November 21st, 2007 at 11:34 am
Hi All,
I paid off my Anaheim house last year that I bought in 1990. I believe housing in OC is WAAAY over priced. I’m hoping for a HUGE price correction, even at the cost of my own equity. Why? because what kind of society do we live in where the average Joe in OC can’t afford a median price house using a conventional 15 or 30 year loan? I want my kids to be able to afford a house comfortably here in OC. The housing price vs. income vs. rents are completely out of whack with economic fundamentals. I feel we are better off as a society for the crash just to happen. And yes, I know we are headed for a recession and we probably need one to “shake out” the excess and bring fundamentals back “into whack”.
November 21st, 2007 at 5:04 pm
HA HA. To all my friends who ripped on me for not buying a home last year while they bought $700,000 homes on $32,000 salary, HA HA HA HA HA HA HA. YOU SHOULD ALL LOSE YOUR HOMES. I HOPE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. YOU ARE ALL BUNCH OF GREEDY PEOPLE NOW CAUGHT WITH YOUR PANTS DOWN.
November 21st, 2007 at 5:17 pm
The entire price spike from 2002 to 2007 is being shaved off.
Prices may return to 2002 levels (or worse)…and it’s happening fast.
The prices were driven by people maxing their monthyl payment based on 1% interest only adjustable loans and easy credit.
Without that easy credit, there’s is nothing holding up these prices at this level…that’s why prices are falling back to where they were before the days of easy credit.
November 21st, 2007 at 6:32 pm
The bubble is deflating…fast. It’s not going to deflate as fast as the Nasdaq stock market bubble of 99, since the transactions are not so fluid, but it’s going to be pertty fast for a real estate market.
My prediction…
Prices will drop to 2002 levels by 2009. That whole graphical price spke from 2001 - 2007 is at risk of dissapearing.
November 21st, 2007 at 7:38 pm
All you debt serfs that used your temp equity as an atm to impress your neighbors will pay an enormous price. Going out to dinner, buying the suv and spending a fortune in gas, repairs, insurance taxes, Mello Roose, etc wasn’t so smart was it? What are all of you mortgage dorks going to do now that nobody would EVER want to hire people with worse habits than state workers.
You followers put all your egs in a track home that was slapped together? Hope the builder or seller who cashed out at your expense at least sends you a Christmas card
NOT
November 22nd, 2007 at 10:19 am
It is true that the housing prices in the overall state of California, have declined. Also, prices have declined in the 9 counties of the San Francisco Bay Area, overall. BUT….there are still individual counties and cities which have seen increases. The city and county of San Francisco, saw yet another increase in October, of +4.3 year-over-year from Oct ‘06 to this Oct ‘07. The 49 square miles of San Francisco, like the 22 square miles of New York, continue to be highly desirable, with limited supply and very high demand. I think those 2 cities will, at worst, see a flattening out, or maybe tiny decline next year. But there continues to be both strong demand, both domestically and from foreigners, in those cities. Also, believe it or not, some of us in San Francisco, bought a house last fall, took a boring 30-year fixed rate mortgage at 6.5% (a historically low rate), and avoided the whole adjustable ARM B.S. I had so many friends, even the banker, telling me I should really consider an ARM…and I told them…absolutely not.<