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Lansner on Real Estate ~ The latest news about the housing market from Orange County Register columnist Jon Lansner.

Really? Beleagured builders showing signs of life

February 9th, 2010, 6:00 pm by Jeff Collins

really

Real estate news and views from around the globe that make you go, “Really?”

  • LOOKING UP: Aside from banks, no industry was humbled by the recession as much as homebuilders. Now, a number are reporting their first profits in years. (WSJ) MORE HERE!
  • LOSSES DOWN: Without a generous federal tax credit, most builders would still have been producing a loss. But by and large, the amount of loss and the amount of asset write-downs appeared to have come to an end. (Seeking Alpha) MORE HERE!
  • LESS RED INK: Pulte Homes Inc., the largest U.S. homebuilder, reported its 13th straight quarterly loss. But its net loss in the fourth quarter narrowed to $116.9 million, compared to $338.2 million a year earlier. (Bloomberg) MORE HERE!
  • FIGHTING BACK: Competition from cheap foreclosures have cut homebuilders’ share of the U.S. housing market in half. But now they’re fighting back, cutting prices, promising to complete homes faster, and warning about the risks of buying foreclosed property. (WSJ) MORE HERE!
  • LUMBER FUTURES: U.S. lumber production fell 23% last year, but lumber futures hit 29-month highs last week as buyers anticipate a strong spring building season. (Seeking Alpha) MORE HERE!
  • GAME FACE: What better sign of prosperity than being able to afford a spot during the Super Bowl. Fulton Homes, Arizona’s largest privately owned homebuilder, aired one 30-second spot during the big game and has a second spot slated for broadcast during the 82nd Academy Awards on March 7. (East Valley Living) MORE HERE!

$1 million-plus home sales fell 14.5% in ‘09

February 9th, 2010, 12:00 pm by Jeff Collins
serenita1 blog-1601-from-the-bay water-fall click on photos to enlarge

DataQuick reported recently that 2,448 Orange County homes sold last year at prices of $1 million or more.

That’s down 14.5% from 2008, when 2,862 O.C. homes sold for at least seven figures.

Those figures compare to more than 5,200 million-plus home sales in O.C. in 2007, and more than 7,300 in 2005.

DataQuick attributed the decrease in million-plus sales to “buyer reticence, a difficult mortgage market and several years of price drops that tugged the value of many homes below the million-dollar threshold.”

Area 2008 2009 change
LOS ANGELES 6,046 5,239 -13.3%
ORANGE 2,862 2,448 -14.5%
SAN DIEGO 2,216 1,578 -28.8%
RIVERSIDE 665 342 -48.6%
SAN BERDOO 188 123 -34.6%
VENTURA 595 405 -31.9%
IMPERIAL 1 1 0.0%
SOCAL 12,573 10,136 -19.4%
CALIF. 24,436 18,621 -23.8%

Among the highlights from DataQuick’s report:

  • DataQuick shows an even greater percentage decline than reflected in an earlier report based on figures from the Multiple Listing Service, which showed that million-plus sales had decreased 11%. Unlike the MLS, DataQuick figures reflect all home sales, including newly built homes and those sold outside the MLS.
  • While 2009 million-plus home sales fell 14.5%, overall sales in the county jumped 17.1%.
  • One out of every 13 homes sold last year went for $1 million or more, compared to one in nine in 2008, one in 5 in 2007 and one in 7 in 2005.
  • Statewide, million-plus home sales fell 23.8% in 2009 to one out of 25 homes sold. In Southern California, million-plus sales fell 19.4%
  • The biggest drop in the region was in Riverside County, where million-plus sales dropped 48.6%, followed by San Benardino County with a 34.6% drop.
  • In Los Angeles County, homes priced at $1 million or more dropped 13.3%, the smallest decline in the region.

About 1,900 of the homes that sold statewide last year for less than $1 million had previously sold for $1 million or more, DataQuick said. The median price for those homes declined by about $420,000, or 35%.

More real estate trends …

Yorba Linda home tops most-viewed list

February 9th, 2010, 9:27 am by KELLI HART, THE ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER
yl19641ridgewood1 yl19641ridgewood2 yl19641ridgewood3

The folks at Realtor.com compiled a list of the top 10 most popular homes for sale in Orange County from their Web site (reflecting last week).

City Address Price
Yorba Linda 19641 Ridgewood $587,000
Huntington Beach 19852 Estuary $549,000
Irvine 60 Cape Cod $700,000
Irvine 6 Indiana $655,000
San Clemente 10 Via Tesoro $699,900
Irvine 37 Boulder Creek Way $680,000
Rancho Santa Margarita 3 Via Silla $545,000
Brea 655 Candlewood Street $525,000
Irvine 28 Teak Bridge $719,000
Newport Beach 2319 Tustin Avenue $749,000
  • These are the listings that online home shoppers check out the most in O.C.
  • The homes are tracked within 20% of the median list price for the county, which is $649,999.
  • This week, Yorba Linda takes the cake with the most popular home. See photos above. (Click for larger images.)
  • Irvine digs frequent the top 10 the most.
  • The last time we tracked the county’s hottest homes, an Irvine home graced the top of the list.
  • CLICK on address links for photos and additional information.

Real estate outlooks:

Would you relocate to Texas?

February 9th, 2010, 12:01 am by Jon Lansner

The good people at United Van Lines were kind enough to run a count of their moves to and from Orange County in 2009 — and the results had a cowboy attitude and a BBQ taste!

Town Price Index Income Rank
Sherman $90,000 93% $57,900 11
San Angelo $114,000 86% $52,400 37
Wichita Falls $105,000 83% $52,800 59
Fort Worth $133,000 82% $65,900 65
Amarillo $116,000 82% $55,300 66
Victoria $126,000 81% $53,700 72
Beaumont $115,000 79% $54,300 86
Killeen $132,000 79% $54,000 92
Tyler $139,000 77% $55,300 107
Waco $119,000 76% $51,700 111
Odessa $118,000 76% $49,000 115
Abilene $115,000 75% $50,500 119
Austin $183,000 74% $73,300 126
College Station $152,000 73% $56,100 133
Houston $152,000 70% $63,800 154
Dallas $167,000 69% $68,700 156
San Antonio $151,000 69% $57,200 160
Midland $160,000 67% $60,200 170
Corpus Christi $135,000 67% $50,200 172
McAllen $101,000 52% $32,000 206
Laredo $123,000 51% $37,300 208
Brownsville $111,000 49% $32,900 214
El Paso $132,000 47% $39,700 216
OC $411,000 38% $86,100 222

Where did our Orange County neighbors and coworkers go?

  • Texas, 131 United moves out of 1,153 in 2009.
  • Washington, 81
  • Florida, 77
  • Elsewhere in California, 70
  • Illinois, 50
  • New York, 47

Where are our new neighbors from?

  • Texas, 92 out of 1,102
  • Florida, 77
  • Illinois, 68
  • Elsewhere in California, 67
  • Washington, 64
  • New Jersey, 64

Clearly, Texas is the moving van’s most popular stop when the business involves Orange County. And one thing we know Texas offers is housing affordability.

The chart at right shows the Texas results from the third-quarter study by the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo Bank of what they call “housing opportunity” — comparing median selling price; the “opportunity index” showing what share of homes bought in a quarter would be “affordable” to the typical local household; regional median household income; and national rank by “opportunity index” out of 232 towns followed. This chart is ranked by affordability index — and you can see where Orange County falls! (Psst! Scroll down!)

Now, Texas isn’t for everybody, but it certainly works for some ex-Orange Countians. Your thoughts?

Would you relocate to Texas?
View Results

Demographic trends:

Really? Real estate fees in the spotlight

February 8th, 2010, 5:50 pm by Jon Lansner

really

Real estate news and views from around the globe that make you go, “Really?”

Does sales burst confirm housing bottom?

February 8th, 2010, 2:15 pm by Jon Lansner

blog-qmark.pngMy latest column for The Register discussed “6 signs of a housing bottom” as seen in year-end, ZIP-by-ZIP Orange County pricing and sales data from DataQuick. You can read the COLUMN HERE!

One stat that caught my eye was that sales momentum was broader than I’d thought “as year-over-year gains were found in 72 of Orange County’s 83 ZIP codes. So the excitement wasn’t just bargain hunters fishing at the low end of the housing pond.”

What do you think?

Does 72 of 83 ZIPs with 2009 sales gains confirm the bottom?
View Results

Most-read stories from the blog from 2009  …

  1. ‘Real Housewife’ takes OC house off market
  2. Tiger Woods’ Newport Beach pad
  3. ‘Real Housewife’ saves Coto home from foreclosure
  4. ‘Real Housewives’ Coto home in default
  5. ‘Housewives’ Ladera home on market as short sale
  6. ‘OC Housewives’ Ladera short sale in escrow
  7. Top agent loses $75 million OC listing
  8. ‘Housewives’ Coto home listed for $5.5 million
  9. Lender takes over St. Regis Resort
  10. Broke actor’s OC cottage unsold at half off
  11. ‘Housewives of OC’ star’s Ladera home for sale
  12. Calif. to take housing debacle’s worst fall
  13. OC furniture mall loses $63 million in value
  14. Foreclosed house draws 135 offers
  15. St. Regis resort reportedly near foreclosure

1-in-4 U.S. construction workers jobless

February 8th, 2010, 12:00 pm by Jon Lansner
U.S. Unemployment Rate Hits 9.4 Percent

The U.S. construction industry’s unemployment rate hit 24.7% in January as another 75,000 American construction workers lost their jobs.

The Associated General Contractors of America noted that excluding construction job losses, American employment rose in January for the second time in three months. Ken Simonson, the association’s chief economist: “Unlike the rest of the economy, the construction industry continues to shed jobs at virtually the same rate in January as it has for the past twelve months. The stimulus appears to be the only bright spot for an industry suffering from depression-era unemployment levels.”

Also, Simonson adds:

  • Heavy and civil engineering construction employment, which includes highway construction, was unchanged for the month of January.  He suggested that stimulus-funded construction activity was helping keep employment stable in that one industry category.
  • 926,000 construction workers their jobs since January 2009, a 14.1% drop.
  • Construction accounted for 23% all job losses in the past 12 months even though the industry employs only 4.3% of all nonfarm payroll employees (5.6 million out of 129.5 million).

Orange County doesn’t get the exact same stats. But according to the state Employment Development Dept.’s latest math — December 2009’s report — there were 75,100 people employed in the local construction trades. That’s just 300 more than the end of the 1990s — and 35,300 Orange County construction-crew positions (32%) below the past boom’s construction crew peak workforce.

Real estate trends: